Combining Technical & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat the Markets
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1 Combining Technical & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat the Markets Webinar for the MTA Wednesday 15 th August 2012 Presented By: Mick Pavey (Full-Time Investor & Founder of DIY-Investors) Note: All Share-price Graphs Shown by Courtesy of Sharescope (Ionic Information) 1
2 Disclaimer The information provided and views expressed by Mick Pavey in this webinar are given for educational purposes. By attending this webinar, you accept that it does not constitute actual or implied investment advice. Moreover, you agree that you will take independent financial advice and/or rely on your own judgements in any investment decisions that you make. See also the terms & Conditions of the DIY-Investors.com website which also apply to this webinar. 2
3 First A 60 second Introduction Mick Pavey Farm Management Career (10 years) Chartered Surveyor (25 years) Investing in stocks & shares for 17 years Been an active DIY-Investor for 14 years My Passion for Investing - Past 5 years Author of Picking Winning Shares (ISBN: ), available on Amazon Founded Runs regular DIY-Investors MeetUp Groups in UK Became a Full-Time Investor in 2011 In 2012 started delivering Courses for DIY-Investors ( Picking Winning Shares at Heathrow, London) 3
4 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey Technical Analysts Fundamental Analysts 4
5 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey Why not take the best of both Worlds? Technical Analysts Fundamental Analysts Use Both to Consistently Beat the Market! 5
6 Combining Fundamental & Technical Analysis My Framework for Picking Winning Shares (see p. 89 of Picking Winning Shares ) 6
7 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey So how do I approach this? Probably the best way to illustrate my approach is to give a few examples We ll look at: Data Mining for Recovery Stocks on the US Market (featuring 2 stocks) A Large UK retail recovery stock Another example of a cyclical (recovery) industrial stock in the UK A large growth stock (UK) A small growth stock (UK) 7
8 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey - 2 yrs Finding Recovery Stocks - 1 yr Now % Drop (Price) Let s set up a few criteria to find shares starting to recover 8
9 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey As a starting point, I would choose (say): 1. Price down by over 75% in past 2yrs 2. Price up by (say) 10% in past 10 days 3. MCAP above $20m but below $1,000m 4. PSR below (say) 0.5 Let s see what list this set of criteria gives us (using Sharescope) The Key Point here is that I m using a mixture of TA & Fundamental criteria in the selection process. 9
10 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey 10
11 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey Having got a shortlist of recovery candidates, l scan the graphs looking for possible candidates to check in more detail. Let s have a look at the 9 stocks in the (filtered) list above 11
12 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey Dollars 1 day candles James River Coal Co Ord James River Coal Company (JRCC) Volume (Daily) - M's k 1/7/11 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec '12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 26/9/12 0 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope Worth checking! Cents 1 day candles Alliance Healthcare Services Inc Ord Alliance Healthcare (AIQ) k 2000 Volume (Daily) - th's /6/11 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec '12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 12/9/12 10 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 12
13 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey Dollars 1 day candles Canadian Solar Inc Ord Canadian Solar (CSIQ) k 4 Volume (Daily) - M's 4 10/2/11 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr Jul 12/11/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's +82.5m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 12 Dollars 1 day candles Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd Chart (c) ShareScope Ord Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) k 10 Volume (Daily) - M's 10 10/2/11 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr Jul 12/11/ m 0 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 13
14 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey Cents 1 day candles SkyPeople Fruit Juice Inc Ord SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SPU) k -5.3m Volume (Daily) - th's /5/11 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec '12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 12/9/12-4 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 8 -DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 30 Dollars 1 day candles Overseas Shipholding Group Inc Ord 30 Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) k 4 Volume (Daily) - M's 4 10/2/11 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr Jul 12/11/ m On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope
15 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey 600 Cents 1 day candles Jaguar Mining Inc Ord 600 Jaguar Mining (JAG) k 10 Volume (Daily) - M's 10 23/12/11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 30/8/ m On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 50 Chart (c) ShareScope Cents 1 day candles 200 Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd Ord 200 Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) Volume (Daily) - M's 4 865k 21/2/12 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 16/8/12 20 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's +9.4m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 50 Chart (c) ShareScope 15
16 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey And Finally Dollars 1 day candles A123 Systems Inc Ord 8 8 A123 Systems Inc Volume (Daily) - M's k 10/2/11 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr Jul 12/11/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 16
17 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey So, we ve identified 4 candidates of interest. We ll just look at two here James River Coal (JRCC) And SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SPU) 17
18 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey James River Coal Co (JRCC) Let s go in a bit closer 18
19 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey 800 Cents 1 day candles James River Coal Co Ord Volume (Daily) - M's Bottom Forming? k 29/12/11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 23/8/ m On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) OBV broken up thro DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Possible Double downtrend? Chart (c) ShareScope Let s check the fundamentals 19
20 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey James River Coal (JRCC) Key Metrics Low PSR (0.05) Low PTBV (0.16) News-flow? 20
21 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey James River Coal (JRCC) News-flow The acquisition last year (April 2011) Latest Quarterly Results (9 th August 2012) Decision: Add to my watch-list and do some more research! 21
22 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey Next, let s look at SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SPU) Cents 1 day candles SkyPeople Fruit Juice Inc Ord Bottoming? 200 Volume (Daily) - th's 95k -5.3m /5/11 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec '12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 13/9/12-4 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 8 -DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 22
23 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey SPU Price Action in 2012 Cents 1 day candles SkyPeople Fruit Juice Inc Ord Volume (Daily) - th's 95k /12/11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 31/8/12-5.3m -6 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 23
24 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SPU) Key Metrics Anything Jump out at you here? 24
25 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SPU) Key Metrics MCAP below Net Cash! Low PSR Low PTBV Growing Cash Pile Let s check it out 25
26 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey SPU Balance Sheet (Assets) 30 th March
27 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey SPU Balance Sheet (Liabilities & Net Tangible Assets) 30 th March 2012 What about Newsflow? 27
28 Combining TA & Fundamental Analysis to Consistently Beat The Market Mick Pavey So, what about the news-flow for SPU? SPU continues to grow! Trading below net cash, so add to my buy list! End of Case Study 28
29 UK Case Study 1 - Dixons Retail (LSE: DXNS) 29
30 Dixons Retail (LSE: DXNS) as at 13 th June 2012 PSR 471.9m = m 30
31 Dixons Retail PSR Analysis 31
32 Let s Look at the Technical Analysis Pence 1 day candles Dixons Retail PLC Ord Volume (Daily) - M's 25m /12/10 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr 6/7/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) , 26 MACD (9 sig - Daily) (2)%K 9%D Stochastic Osc. (Daily) Spot Anything? Chart (c) ShareScope 32
33 Let s Look at the Technical Analysis Pence 1 day candles Dixons Retail PLC Ord Volume (Daily) - M's 25m /12/10 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr 6/7/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) Positive Divergence! , 26 MACD (9 sig - Daily) (2)%K 9%D Stochastic Osc. (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 10 33
34 A Few Other Things Pence 1 day candles Dixons Retail PLC Ord Results Due Poss Inverted 10 H & S Forming? Volume (Daily) - M's m m /12/10 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr 5/7/ On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 50 OBV Downtrend Broken! Chart (c) ShareScope
35 So what of Dixons in recent weeks? 20 Pence 1 day candles Dixons Retail PLC Turnaround seems to be underway 200 day m.a. now turning up. Newsflow Ord encouraging! Volume (Daily) - M's m m /2/11 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr Jul 12/11/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 50 Chart (c) ShareScope 10 End of Dixons Case Study 35
36 UK Case Study 2 - API Group (AIM: API) First Added to my watchlist on 15 th November 2010 (SP = 15.5p, MCAP = 11.89m) 36
37 So, why do you think I added it to my watchlist? Pence 1 day candles API Group PLC Ord Volume (Daily) - th's 131k /9/07 '08 Jul '09 Jul '10 Jul 4/1/11 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's 20 RSI (Wilder - Daily) +29.0m , 26 MACD (9 sig - Daily) (2)%K 9%D Stochastic Osc. (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 37
38 Yep Looks like a Double Bottom (shallow) & Low PSR Pence 1 day candles API Group PLC Ord Added to watchlist on 15 th Nov k 5 Volume (Daily) - M's 5 30/3/07 Jul '08 Jul '09 Jul '10 Jul 17/11/10 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's 20 RSI (Wilder - Daily) +28.9m PSR 11.89m = m 13, 26 MACD (9 sig - Daily) (2)%K 9%D Stochastic Osc. (Daily) =0.0 Also, rising OBV! Chart (c) ShareScope 38
39 These were the Interim results (6 mths to ) issued 2 nd December
40 The story moves on This is my post on the DIY-Investors Blog ( )
41 Following an RNS on 9 th February 2012, I updated the website entry (14 th February 2012) 41
42 So what has API been doing recently? Pence 1 day candles API Group PLC Ord 60 API k 5 Volume (Daily) - M's Volume Increases 5 after 9th Feb! 8/12/10 Jan Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr 6/7/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's +42.1m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) 50 Chart (c) ShareScope 20 42
43 What about the latest results for API (released 29 th May 2012)? 43
44 So, overall the timeline for my involvement with API looks like this 15 th Nov Added to watchlist (SP = 15.5p) 31 st Jan Added to DIY-Investors Review List 19.5p) Various Reviews during 2011 and into th June Price closed at 60.0p (rise of 287.1% since ) 10 th Aug Price closed at 64.75p (rise of 317.7% since ) Prospects? Possible Takeover (putting itself up for sale) see RNS 9 th Feb 2012 Or Organic Growth for next few years? End of UK Case Study 2
45 Case Study 3 Booker Group (LSE: BOK) Initial Research - July 2009 Booker Group reverse takeover of BlueHeath Holdings plc (2007) 45
46 This was the Chart for Booker Group, at the end of July 2009 Pence 1 day candles Booker Group PLC Ord BOK Initial Purchase 29 th July 2009, p > k 500 Volume (Daily) - M's /4/05 Jul '06 Jul '07 Jul '08 Jul '09 5/8/ m 0 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 46
47 This is the chart for 2yrs or so prior to my purchase Pence 1 day candles Booker Group PLC BOK Ord Buy@ 35.72p Volume (Daily) - M's 37k /12/06 Apr Jul Oct '08 Apr Jul Oct '09 Apr 5/8/09 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 10 47
48 So, quick reaction to chart? 35 Pence 1 day candles Booker Group PLC Ord Volume (Daily) - M's 37k 0 0 2/9/08 Oct Nov Dec '09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 10/8/09 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) , 26 MACD (9 sig - Daily) (2)%K 9%D Stochastic Osc. (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope 15 48
49 My reading of the Chart for Booker Pence 1 day candles Booker Group PLC Price may find support on 50 day moving average! Rising 50 day m. avge. Ord Volume (Daily) - M's 37k 0 0 2/9/08 Oct Nov Dec '09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 10/8/09 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's Rising OBV! m RSI (Wilder - Daily) , 26 MACD (9 sig - Daily) (2)%K 9%D Stochastic Osc. (Daily) Increasing average volume! Rising 200 day m.avge. Chart (c) ShareScope
50 Latest Full Year Results (released 24 th May 2012) Let s look at these in the context of the Sharescope Key Metrics 50
51 Current Sharescope Key Metrics (as at Friday 10 th August 2012) 51
52 Past 3 Years Price History for Booker Group Pence 1 day candles Booker Group PLC Ord Volume (Daily) - M's BOK Graph shows steady rise in SP 37k 0 0 6/3/09 Jul '10 Jul '11 Jul '12 4/7/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's m RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) Chart (c) ShareScope
53 In Summary, Booker has: Grown Steadily since July 2009 (T/O, Profits & Cashflow) Reduced Debt (despite expanding into India) Increased Earnings steadily over past 5 years Increased Dividends over the past 4 years Grown Book Value consistently over past 5 years BOK has been a very steady portfolio member, not exciting BUT very reliable! End of Case Study 3 53
54 UK Case Study 4 - Mobile Streams (AIM: MOS) My first alert to the DIY-Investors community was in the blog post (14 th March 2012), when MOS closed at p having shown a clear breakout from downtrend. 54
55 From the Blog - 14 th March 2012 (cont) 4.3m PSR = m 55
56 56
57 Mobile Streams Interim Results (Issued: 29 th March 2012) 57
58 Blog Post Mobile Streams (12 th June 2012) When to sell? 58
59 Blog Post : 12 th June 2012 (cont.) 59
60 Mobile Streams - as at Friday 10 th August 2012 Pence 1 day candles Mobile Streams PLC Ord Volume (Daily) - th's 152k +37.8m Prelims /2/11 Apr Jul Oct '12 Apr Jul 12/11/12 On Balance Vol. (Daily) - M's RSI (Wilder - Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) DI/+DI, ADX (Daily) That s about it Prelims 20/9/2012 Chart (c) ShareScope 10 60
61 As for consistently beating the market? My recent DIY-Investing performance includes: Self Invested Pension Plan (average +46% each year) Company trading account (UK), 89% gain in 20 months Now able to make a living as a full-time investor. 61
62 A BIG THANK YOU For watching today. I hope you found my ideas interesting. You can find out more about my ideas & methods by: 1. Reading my book Picking Winning Shares (ISBN: , available on Amazon). 2. Checking out my website: (please join our community) 3. Tuning in to my monthly Live Internet TV Broadcast (next one 5 th September at 8pm BST) 4. Attending my investing course Picking Winning Shares at the Holiday Inn, London Heathrow (Saturday 29 th September 2012) Over to Shane for the Questions 62
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