Paul M. Sommers David U. Cha And Daniel P. Glatt. March 2010 MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO
|
|
- Brian Hardy
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF BILL JAMES S PYTHAGOREAN FORMULA by Paul M. Sommers David U. Cha And Daniel P. Gla March 2010 MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE MIDDLEBURY, VERMONT hp://
2 2 AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF BILL JAMES S PYTHAGOREAN FORMULA by David U. Cha Daniel P. Gla Paul M. Sommers Deparmen of Economics Middlebury College Middlebury, Vermon psommers@middlebury.edu
3 3 AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF BILL JAMES S PYTHAGOREAN FORMULA The Gians do no usually need o score many runs. All ha we mus do is score more han he oher fellow. Bill Terry, manager of he 1932 New York Gians [1, p.136] Bill James, baseball wrier and saisician, in 1980 developed a formula ha relaed a eam s won-los percenage o he number of runs hey scored and allowed, as follows: (1) Won-Los Percenage = 2 ( RunsScored ) ( RunsScored ) 2 + ( RunsAllowed ) 2 Since he Won-Los Percenage is he raio of games won o he oal number of games played (games won plus games los), equaion (1) can be re-wrien as follows: (2) Wins Losses = 2 ( RunsScored ) ( RunsAllowed ) 2 = RunsScored RunsAllowed 2 If, for example, he Boson Red Sox score 867 runs and allow 657 runs (as hey did in 2007), Bill James s Pyhagorean mehod [so dubbed because of he presence of hree squared erms in equaion (1)] 1 projecs ha he eam would have a won-los percenage of (867) 2 /[(867) 2 + (657) 2 ] or.635 (and hence win abou or 103 games). In fac, he Red Sox (world champions in 2007) won 96 regular season games or abou 6.8 percen fewer games han he Pyhagorean mehod would predic. In his insance, he exponen of 2 on he righ-hand side of equaion (2)
4 4 is oo high. Or, one could argue ha 2 is accurae, bu he Boson Red Sox should have won more regular season games in 2007 han hey acually did. The purpose of his brief noe is o empirically es Bill James s Pyhagorean mehod for all eams in boh leagues, by decade, from 1950 o Does he mehod work as well since 1980 as i did before 1980? Does he mehod work beer for one league (American or Naional) han he oher? Has he exponen in equaion (2) changed in recen decades? The Models Equaion (2) can be wrien in log-linear form as follows: Wins RS (3) ln = 2ln Losses RA where ln is he naural logarihm, RS denoes runs scored, and RA denoes runs allowed. Tha is, if one firs akes logs of boh sides of equaion (2) and hen if we define Wins y = ln and Losses RS x = ln for each eam i in year, we can esimae he coefficiens β 0 and β 1 by applying RA leas squares o y and x in he following regression: (4) y = β 0 + β1x + ε where ε is a disurbance erm. According o Bill James, β 0 should be indisinguishable from zero and β 1 should be close o 2. To es he null hypohesis H 0 : β 1 = 2, we employ a -es. The es saisic is calc b1 2 =, where b 1 is he esimaed slope coefficien and SE(b 1 ) is he SE ( b ) 1
5 5 sandard error of he esimaed slope coefficien. 2 Hereafer, equaion (4) where Wins RS y = ln and x = ln will be called Model (1). Losses RA Model (1) assumes ha one more run scored has he same impac on a eam s win percenage as does one less run allowed. Bu wha if scoring runs was more (or less) imporan o winning games han allowing runs? Model (1) migh hen be revised as follows: Wins (5) ln = β 0 + β1 ln( RS) + β 2 ln( RA) + ε Losses If we relax he assumpion ha he exponen on he raio RS RA is he same (and, according o James, equal o 2 ), hen he revised model would be described by equaion (5), hereafer, Model (2). The Daa Daa on regular season wins, losses, runs scored, and runs allowed for all eams were gleaned from wo primary sources: Toal Baseball [3] for he years 1950 hrough 2003 and hp://spors.espn.go.com/mlb/sandings for he years 2004 hrough The Resuls Table 1 shows he regression resuls for each league (as well as for boh leagues combined) for each decade since he 1950s. The esimaed inercep (b 0 ) in all regressions is no discernible from zero, as Bill James would expec. Since he year 2000, he exponen in he raio of runs scored o runs allowed in James s Pyhagorean formula has been indisinguishable from 2. Bu, in decades before he urn of he millennium he exponen was no equal o 2. And, in all cases when we could rejec H 0 : β 1 = 2 (in favor he alernaive hypohesis H A : β 1 2),
6 6 our esimae b 1 was invariably less han 2. A comparison of he 30-year period o he 28-year period shows ha b 1 was in mos cases (wih he excepion of he American League (AL) from 1980 o 2007) significanly less han 2. The impac of RS/RA on winning is marginally higher now ( ) han i was in he earlier period ( ). Compare he value of b 1 (1.9202) esimaed for boh leagues combined in he period o he corresponding esimae for b 1 (1.8099) in he period Moreover, i is worh noing ha he average number of runs scored is also higher in he Naional (American) League in he period han i was in he period [ RS , NL = 699, RS , NL = 667.3, p-value on he difference beween means is less han.001; RS , AL = 747, RS ,AL = 669.6, p-value on he difference is again less han.001]. Figures 1 and 2 show scaerplos of ln(w/l) agains ln(rs/ra) for each subperiod ( and , respecively) for each league. Each poin represens an observaion on one eam in one year. The poins more closely fall on a sraigh line for he Naional League, han hey do for he Naional League, (compare R 2 =.878 for wih R 2 =.847 for in Table 1). Sill, he differences beween he wo periods by league are admiedly very small. Table 2 shows he regression resuls for Model (2), which isolaes he impac of runs scored from he impac of runs allowed on he win-loss raio. The righ-hand column repors he coefficien of deerminaion (R 2 ) for each regression each decade, by league. A look down his column and he corresponding column in Table 1 clearly shows ha he explanaory power (ha is, how well he regressors as a group explain variaion in he dependen variable, namely, ln(wins/losses) ) of Model (2) is no an improvemen over Model (1). In oher words, runs scored and runs allowed seemingly have an equal (and opposie) effec on he win-loss raio.
7 7 Concluding Remarks Early in he 1980s, Bill James developed a formula in response o he quesion: Can you ell how many games a eam will win, based on is runs scored and runs allowed? A regression analysis of daa on regular season runs scored, runs allowed, and wins (and losses) for each eam each season in Major League Baseball since 1950 reveals ha Bill James s Pyhagorean formula has sood he es of ime very well indeed. Runs scored and runs allowed have equal (and opposie) effecs on eam winning, in boh leagues and in years before and since If any modificaion should be made o he formula, he exponen on runs scored and runs allowed should be reduced o a power slighly below 2 [ 1.92 for boh leagues since he year 1980].
8 8 Table 1. Regression Resuls for Model (1) ln(wins/losses) = b 0 + b 1 ln(rs/ra) Slope coefficien on Inercep ln(rs/ra) R 2 b 0 b AL [.0131] a [.0598].917 NL [.0122] [.0737].893 Boh leagues [.0089] [.0461] AL [.0094] [.0593].911 NL [.0111] [.0655].901 Boh leagues [.0072] [.0441] AL [.0091] [.0560].894 NL.0012 [.0101] [.0642].850 Boh leagues.0006 [.0068] [.0425] AL.0005 [.0078] [.0577].885 NL [.0100] [.0848].828 Boh leagues [.0063] [.0489] AL [.0078] [.0599].883 NL [.0090] [.0645].856 Boh leagues [.0060] [.0441] AL [.0099] [.0624].904 NL [.0089] [.0682].857 Boh leagues [.0066] [.0458] AL [.0059] [.0333].907 NL [.0064] [.0393].878 Boh leagues [.0044] [.0255] AL [.0048] [.0344].891 NL [.0054] [.0411].847 Boh leagues [.0036] [.0266].870 a Numbers in brackes are sandard errors and numbers in boldface (ialics) are significan a beer han he.01 (.05) level. The null hypohesis for he inercep is H 0 :β 0 = 0 and he null hypohesis for he slope coefficien on ln(rs/ra) is H 0 : β 1 = 2. In boh cases, he alernaive hypohesis is wo-ailed.
9 9 Table 2. Regression Resuls for Model (2) ln(wins/losses) = b 0 + b 1 ln(rs) + b 2 ln(ra) Slope coefficien on: Inercep ln(rs) ln(ra) R 2 b 0 b 1 b AL.3888 [.9790] [.0995] [.0930].917 NL [1.1370] [.1119] [.1164].894 Boh leagues [.7351] [.0739] [.0718] AL.3171 [.5948] [.0771] [.0733].911 NL.8684 [.7091] [.0823] [.0883].902 Boh leagues.5648 [.4578] [.0562] [.0567] AL [.5620] [.0702] [.0715].895 NL [.7772] [.0854] [.0903].850 Boh leagues [.4613] [.0545] [.0564] AL.0077 [.3052] [.0619] [.0630].885 NL [.4232] [.0919] [.0904].829 Boh leagues [.2429] [.0524] [.0525] AL.0794 [.4242] [.0680] [.0683].883 NL [.4482] [.0762] [.0707].856 Boh leagues [.2951] [.0505] [.0486] AL [.9428] [.0980] [.0907].904 NL [.7686] [.0938] [.0842].862 Boh leagues.5502 [.5714] [.0652] [.0666].884 a Numbers in brackes are sandard errors and numbers in boldface (ialics) are significan a beer han he.01 (.05) level. The null hypohesis for he inercep is H 0 :β 0 = 0 and he null hypoheses for he slope coefficiens on ln(rs) and ln(ra) are H 0 : β 1 = 2 and H 0 : β 2 = -2, respecively. In all hree cases, he alernaive hypohesis is wo-ailed.
10 10 Figure Scaerplo of ln(w/l) agains ln(rs/ra), American League 0.5 ln(w/l) ln(rs/ra) Scaerplo of ln(w/l) agains ln(rs/ra), Naional League 0.5 ln(w/l) ln(rs/ra)
11 11 Figure Scaerplo of ln(w/l) agains ln(rs/ra), American League 0.5 ln(w/l) ln(rs/ra) Scaerplo of ln(w/l) agains ln(rs/ra), Naional League ln(w/l) ln(rs/ra)
12 12 References 1. P. Williams, When he Gians Were Gians, Chapel Hill, NC: Algonquin Books, B. James, The Bill James Baseball Absrac 1983, New York: Ballanine Books, Toal Baseball: The Ulimae Baseball Encyclopedia (edied by H. Thorn, P. Birnbaum, and B. Deane), Wilmingon, DE: Spors Media Publishing, 2004.
13 13 Foonoes 1. See, for example, he reference o The Pyhagorean Formula in [2, p. 10]. 2. The b 1 esimae also inerpres as an elasiciy of (Wins/Losses) o (RS/RA), where (in general) he elasiciy of Y wih respec o X is defined as X dy. In oher words, a Y dx 1 percen increase in (RS/RA) will lead o a b 1 percen increase in (Wins/Losses). Moreover, since Wins + Losses is equal o a consan (162 games since he year 1962 and 154 games in years before 1962), i should also be noed ha a given percenage change in Wins is equal o he percenage change in he winning percenage, [Wins/(Wins + Losses)].
Homework 2. is unbiased if. Y is consistent if. c. in real life you typically get to sample many times.
Econ526 Mulile Choice. Homework 2 Choose he one ha bes comlees he saemen or answers he quesion. (1) An esimaor ˆ µ of he oulaion value µ is unbiased if a. ˆ µ = µ. b. has he smalles variance of all esimaors.
More informationThe t-test. What We Will Cover in This Section. A Research Situation
The -es 1//008 P331 -ess 1 Wha We Will Cover in This Secion Inroducion One-sample -es. Power and effec size. Independen samples -es. Dependen samples -es. Key learning poins. 1//008 P331 -ess A Research
More informationUsing Rates of Change to Create a Graphical Model. LEARN ABOUT the Math. Create a speed versus time graph for Steve s walk to work.
2.4 Using Raes of Change o Creae a Graphical Model YOU WILL NEED graphing calculaor or graphing sofware GOAL Represen verbal descripions of raes of change using graphs. LEARN ABOUT he Mah Today Seve walked
More informationCapacity Utilization Metrics Revisited: Delay Weighting vs Demand Weighting. Mark Hansen Chieh-Yu Hsiao University of California, Berkeley 01/29/04
Capaciy Uilizaion Merics Revisied: Delay Weighing vs Demand Weighing Mark Hansen Chieh-Yu Hsiao Universiy of California, Berkeley 01/29/04 1 Ouline Inroducion Exising merics examinaion Proposed merics
More informationThe Changing Hitting Performance Profile In the Major League, September 2007 MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO.
The Changing Hitting Performance Profile In the Major League, 1996-2006 by Paul M. Sommers September 2007 MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 07-15 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE
More informationAP Physics 1 Per. Unit 2 Homework. s av
Name: Dae: AP Physics Per. Uni Homework. A car is driven km wes in hour and hen 7 km eas in hour. Eas is he posiive direcion. a) Wha is he average velociy and average speed of he car in km/hr? x km 3.3km/
More informationWhat is a Practical (ASTM C 618) SAI--Strength Activity Index for Fly Ashes that can be used to Proportion Concretes Containing Fly Ash?
2017 World of Coal Ash (WOCA) Conference in Lexingon, KY - May 9-11, 2017 hp://www.flyash.info/ Wha is a Pracical (ASTM C 618) SAI--Srengh Aciviy Index for Fly Ashes ha can be used o Proporion Concrees
More informationTime & Distance SAKSHI If an object travels the same distance (D) with two different speeds S 1 taking different times t 1
www.sakshieducaion.com Time & isance The raio beween disance () ravelled by an objec and he ime () aken by ha o ravel he disance is called he speed (S) of he objec. S = = S = Generally if he disance ()
More informationMorningstar Investor Return
Morningsar Invesor Reurn Morningsar Mehodology Paper March 3, 2009 2009 Morningsar, Inc. All righs reserved. The informaion in his documen is he propery of Morningsar, Inc. Reproducion or ranscripion by
More informationInterpreting Sinusoidal Functions
6.3 Inerpreing Sinusoidal Funcions GOAL Relae deails of sinusoidal phenomena o heir graphs. LEARN ABOUT he Mah Two sudens are riding heir bikes. A pebble is suck in he ire of each bike. The wo graphs show
More informationOverview. Do white-tailed tailed and mule deer compete? Ecological Definitions (Birch 1957): Mule and white-tailed tailed deer potentially compete.
COMPETITION BETWEEN MULE AND WHITE- TAILED DEER METAPOPULATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON E. O. Garon, Kris Hennings : Fish and Wildlife Dep., Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844 Maureen Murphy, and Seve
More informationAn Alternative Mathematical Model for Oxygen Transfer Evaluation in Clean Water
An Alernaive Mahemaical Model for Oxygen Transfer Evaluaion in Clean Waer Yanjun (John) He 1, PE, BCEE 1 Kruger Inc., 41 Weson Parkway, Cary, NC 27513 Email: john.he@veolia.com ABSTRACT Energy consumpion
More informationMODEL SELECTION FOR VALUE-AT-RISK: UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE APPROACHES SANG JIN LEE
MODEL SELECTION FOR VALUE-AT-RISK: UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE APPROACHES By SANG JIN LEE Bachelor of Science in Mahemaics Yonsei Universiy Seoul, Republic of Korea 999 Maser of Business Adminisraion Yonsei
More information1. The value of the digit 4 in the number 42,780 is 10 times the value of the digit 4 in which number?
Mahemaics. he value of he digi in he number 70 is 0 imes he value of he digi in which number?. Mike is years old. Joe is imes as old as Mike. Which equaion shows how o find Joe s age? 70 000 = = = + =
More informationCALCULATORS: Casio: ClassPad 300 ClassPad 300 Plus ClassPad Manager TI: TI-89, TI-89 Titanium Voyage 200. The Casio ClassPad 300
The Casio ClassPad 300 CC Edwards 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 23.0 23.8 24.4 24.5 24.2 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 24.7 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.3 The able shows how he average age of he firs marriage of Japanese women
More informationDo Competitive Advantages Lead to Higher Future Rates of Return?
Do Compeiive Advanages Lead o Higher Fuure Raes of Reurn? Vicki Dickinson Universiy of Florida Greg Sommers Souhern Mehodis Universiy 2010 CARE Conference Forecasing and Indusry Fundamenals April 9, 2010
More informationChapter : Linear Motion 1
Te: Chaper 2.1-2.4 Think and Eplain: 1-3 Think and Sole: --- Chaper 2.1-2.4: Linear Moion 1 NAME: Vocabulary: disance, displacemen, ime, consan speed, consan elociy, aerage, insananeous, magniude, ecor,
More informationWhat the Puck? an exploration of Two-Dimensional collisions
Wha he Puck? an exploraion of Two-Dimensional collisions 1) Have you ever played 8-Ball pool and los he game because you scrached while aemping o sink he 8-Ball in a corner pocke? Skech he sho below: Each
More informationA Probabilistic Approach to Worst Case Scenarios
A Probabilisic Approach o Wors Case Scenarios A Probabilisic Approach o Wors Case Scenarios By Giovanni Barone-Adesi Universiy of Albera, Canada and Ciy Universiy Business School, London Frederick Bourgoin
More informationStock Return Expectations in the Credit Market
Sock Reurn Expecaions in he Credi Marke Hans Bysröm * Sepember 016 In his paper we compue long-erm sock reurn expecaions (across he business cycle) for individual firms using informaion backed ou from
More informationMarket Timing with GEYR in Emerging Stock Market: The Evidence from Stock Exchange of Thailand
Journal of Finance and Invesmen Analysis, vol. 1, no. 4, 2012, 53-65 ISSN: 2241-0998 (prin version), 2241-0996(online) Scienpress Ld, 2012 Marke Timing wih GEYR in Emerging Sock Marke: The Evidence from
More informationCMA DiRECtions for ADMinistRAtion GRADE 6. California Modified Assessment. test Examiner and Proctor Responsibilities
CMA 2012 California Modified Assessmen GRADE 6 DiRECions for ADMinisRAion es Examiner and Procor Responsibiliies Compleing all of he following seps will help ensure ha no esing irregulariies occur, ha
More information3. The amount to which $1,000 will grow in 5 years at a 6 percent annual interest rate compounded annually is
8 h Grade Eam - 00. Which one of he following saemens is rue? a) There is a larges negaive raional number. b) There is a larges negaive ineger. c) There is a smalles ineger. d) There is a smalles negaive
More informationSan Francisco State University ECON 560 Fall Midterm Exam 2. Tuesday, October hour, 15 minutes
San Francisco Sae Universiy Micael Bar ECON 560 Fall 207 Miderm Exam 2 Tuesday, Ocober 3 our, 5 minues Name: Insrucions. Tis is closed book, closed noes exam. 2. No calculaors or elecronic devices of any
More informationReview of Economics & Finance Submitted on 27/03/2017 Article ID: Mackenzie D. Wood, and Jungho Baek
Review of Economics & Finance Submied on 27/03/2017 Aricle ID: 1923-7529-2017-04-63-09 Mackenzie D. Wood, and Jungho Baek Facors Affecing Alaska s Salmon Permi Values: Evidence from Brisol Bay Drif Gillne
More informationIdiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Returns and Economy Conditions: The Role of Idiosyncratic Volatility in the Australian Stock Market
Idiosyncraic Volailiy, Sock Reurns and Economy Condiions: The Role of Idiosyncraic Volailiy in he Ausralian Sock Marke Bin Liu Amalia Di Iorio RMIT Universiy Melbourne Ausralia Absrac This sudy examines
More informationLifecycle Funds. T. Rowe Price Target Retirement Fund. Lifecycle Asset Allocation
Lifecycle Funds Towards a Dynamic Asse Allocaion Framework for Targe Reiremen Funds: Geing Rid of he Dogma in Lifecycle Invesing Anup K. Basu Queensland Universiy of Technology The findings of he Mercer
More informationStrategic Decision Making in Portfolio Management with Goal Programming Model
American Journal of Operaions Managemen and Informaion Sysems 06; (): 34-38 hp://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com//aomis doi: 0.648/.aomis.0600.4 Sraegic Decision Making in Porfolio Managemen wih Goal Programming
More informationTime-Variation in Diversification Benefits of Commodity, REITs, and TIPS 1
Time-Variaion in Diversificaion Benefis of Commodiy, REITs, and TIPS 1 Jing-zhi Huang 2 and Zhaodong Zhong 3 This Draf: July 11, 2006 Absrac Diversificaion benefis of hree ho asse classes, Commodiy, Real
More informationKEY CONCEPTS AND PROCESS SKILLS. 1. An allele is one of the two or more forms of a gene present in a population. MATERIALS AND ADVANCE PREPARATION
Gene Squares 61 40- o 2 3 50-minue sessions ACIVIY OVERVIEW P R O B L E M S O LV I N G SUMMARY Sudens use Punne squares o predic he approximae frequencies of rais among he offspring of specific crier crosses.
More informationKINEMATICS IN ONE DIMENSION
chaper KINEMATICS IN ONE DIMENSION Secion 2.1 Displacemen Secion 2.2 Speed and Velociy 1. A paricle ravels along a curved pah beween wo poins P and Q as shown. The displacemen of he paricle does no depend
More informationProportional Reasoning
Proporional Reasoning Focus on Afer his lesson, you will be able o... solve problems using proporional reasoning use more han one mehod o solve proporional reasoning problems When you go snowboarding or
More informationEconomics 487. Homework #4 Solution Key Portfolio Calculations and the Markowitz Algorithm
Economics 87 Homework # Soluion Key Porfolio Calculaions and he Markowiz Algorihm A. Excel Exercises: (10 poins) 1. Download he Excel file hw.xls from he class websie. This file conains monhly closing
More informationINSTRUCTIONS FOR USE. This file can only be used to produce a handout master:
INSTRUCTIONS OR USE This file can only be used o produce a handou maser: Use Prin from he ile menu o make a prinou of he es. You may no modify he conens of his file. IMPORTNT NOTICE: You may prin his es
More informationExplore Graphs of Linear Relations. 1. a) Use a method of your choice to determine how much water will be needed each day of a seven-day cruise.
. Graphing Linear Relaions Focus on Aer his lesson, ou will be able o graph linear relaions mach equaions o linear relaions wih graphs solve problems b graphing a linear relaion and analsing he graph Tina
More informationCHAPTER TEST REVIEW, LESSONS 4-1 TO 4-5
IB PHYSICS Name: DEVIL PHYSICS Perio: Dae: BADDEST CLASS ON CAMPUS CHAPTER TEST REVIEW, LESSONS 4- TO 4-5 S. Waer waves a he surface of a pon pass a floaing log of lengh L. The log is a res relaive o he
More informationRolling ADF Tests: Detecting Rational Bubbles in Greater China Stock Markets
Singapore Managemen Universiy Insiuional Knowledge a Singapore Managemen Universiy Disseraions and Theses Collecion (Open Access) Disseraions and Theses 2008 Rolling ADF Tess: Deecing Raional Bubbles in
More informationANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY, MAINTENANCE AND RISK BASED INSPECTION OF PRESSURE SAFETY VALVES
ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY, MAINTENANCE AND RISK BASED INSPECTION OF PRESSURE SAFETY VALVES Venilon Forunao Francisco Machado Mechanical Engineering Dep, Insiuo Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, 049-00,
More informationReexamining Sports-Sentiment Hypothesis: Microeconomic Evidences from Borsa Istanbul
Reexamining Spors-Senimen Hypohesis: Microeconomic Evidences from Borsa Isanbul Ka Wai Terence Fung +, Ender Demir, Chi Keung Marco Lau And Kwok Ho Chan * Absrac This paper examines he impac of inernaional
More informationBreeding Incentive Programs and Demand for California Thoroughbred Racing: The Tradeoff Between Quantity and Quality. Martin D.
Breeding Incenive Programs and Demand for California horoughbred Racing: he radeoff Beween Quaniy and Qualiy by Marin D. Smih Deparmen of Agriculural and Resource Economics Universiy of California, Davis
More informationThe Current Account as A Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem
Public Disclosure Auhorized Policy Research Working Paper 486 WPS486 Public Disclosure Auhorized Public Disclosure Auhorized The Curren Accoun as A Dynamic Porfolio Choice Problem Taiana Didier Alexandre
More informationWHO RIDE THE HIGH SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES THE ACELA EXPRESS CASE STUDY
Proceedings of he 2010 Join Rail Conference JRC2010 April 27-29, 2010, Urbana, Illinois, USA JRC2010-36236 WHO RIDE THE HIGH SPEED RAIL IN THE UNITED STATES THE ACELA EXPRESS CASE STUDY Zhenhua Chen The
More informationMarket timing and statistical arbitrage: Which market timing opportunities arise from equity price busts coinciding with recessions?
Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, vol.1, no.1, 2011, 53-81 ISSN: 1792-6580 (prin version), 1792-6599 (online) Inernaional Scienific Press, 2011 Marke iming and saisical arbirage: Which marke iming
More informationPredicting Genotypes
Name: Preicing Genoypes ae: Perio: Preic he genoypes of each se of parens base on he phenoypes of he parens an offspring. Assume ha all possible phenoypes for he offspring are shown. Preic he mos likely
More informationFORECASTING TECHNIQUES ADE 2013 Prof Antoni Espasa TOPIC 1 PART 2 TRENDS AND ACCUMULATION OF KNOWLEDGE. SEASONALITY HANDOUT
FORECASTING TECHNIQUES ADE 2013 Prof Anoni Espasa TOPIC 1 PART 2 TRENDS AND ACCUMULATION OF KNOWLEDGE. SEASONALITY HANDOUT February 2013 MAIN FACTORS CAUSING TRENDS Increases in populaion. Seady inflaion.
More informationOath. The. Life-changing Impact TEACH HEAL DISCOVER. Going Into the Wild to Save Rhinos. Tracking Down Outbreaks page 2. Teaming Up for Nekot page 7
The Oah TEACH HEAL DISCOVER FALL/WINTER 2016 Tracking Down Oubreaks page 2 Teaming Up for Neko page 7 Turle Parnership Turns 20 page 9 Avian Fellowship Creaes Nes Egg page 10 Life-changing Impac Going
More informationCALCULATION OF EXPECTED SLIDING DISTANCE OF BREAKWATER CAISSON CONSIDERING VARIABILITY IN WAVE DIRECTION
CALCULATION OF EXPECTED SLIDING DISTANCE OF BREAKWATER CAISSON CONSIDERING VARIABILITY IN WAVE DIRECTION SU YOUNG HONG School of Civil, Urban, and Geosysem Engineering, Seoul Naional Universiy, San 56-1,
More informationBetting Against Beta
Being Agains Bea Andrea Frazzini and Lasse H. Pedersen * This draf: Ocober 5, 2010 Absrac. We presen a model in which some invesors are prohibied from using leverage and oher invesors leverage is limied
More information296 Finance a úvěr-czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 64, 2014, no. 4
JEL Classificaion: C32, F31, G11 Keywords: Emerging Easern Europe, sock and currency markes, porfolio, VaR Effeciveness of Porfolio Diversificaion and he Dynamic Relaionship beween Sock and Currency Markes
More informationThe APT with Lagged, Value-at-Risk and Asset Allocations by Using Econometric Approach
Proceedings of he 16 Inernaional Conference on Indusrial Engineering and Operaions Managemen Deroi, USA, Sepember 3-5, 16 he AP wih Lagged, Value-a-Risk and Asse Allocaions by Using Economeric Approach
More informationMORTALITY ESTIMATES FOR JUVENILE DUSKY SHARKS CARCHARHINUS OBSCURUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING MARK-RECAPTURE DATA. A. GOVENDER* and S. L.
S. Afr. J. mar. Sci. 18: 11-18 1997 11 MORTALITY ESTIMATES FOR JUVENILE DUSKY SHARKS CARCHARHINUS OBSCURUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING MARK-RECAPTURE DATA A. GOVENDER* and S. L. BIRNIE* A maximum likelihood
More informationChapter / rev/min Ans. C / in. C mm Ans teeth Ans. C / mm Ans.
Chaper 13 13-1 dp 17 / 8 15 in N 110 dg dp 15 4375 in N3 544 NG PdG 84375 35 eeh C 15 4375 / 35 in Ans Ans ng 1600 15 / 60 400 rev/min Ans p m 3 mm Ans C 3 15 60 115 mm Ans 13-13-3 N G 16 4 64 eeh Ans
More informationFlexible Seasonal Closures in the Northern Prawn Fishery
Flexible Seasonal Closures in he Norhern Prawn Fishery S. Beare, L. Chapman and R. Bell Ausralian Bureau of Agriculural and Resource Economics IIFET 2 Proceedings Given high levels of uncerainy associaed
More informationMaking Sense of Genetics Problems
Bio 101 Ms. Bledsoe Making Sense of Geneics roblems Monohbrid crosses Le s sar wih somehing simle: crossing wo organisms and waching how one single rai comes ou in he offsring. Le s use eas, as Mendel
More informationSemester Review Session
Semeser Review Session We will have a semeser review session on Wednesda, 1/10 a -4pm, here in room MPHY 03. If ou have a quesion(s ha ou would like me o go over, please drop me an email wih he problem
More informationSlippery Slope? Assessing the Economic Impact of the 2002 Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City, Utah
Slippery Slope? Assessing he Economic Impac of he 2002 Winer Olympic Games in Sal Lake Ciy, Uah By Rober A. Baade, Rober Baumann, and Vicor A. Maheson November 2008 COLLEGE OF THE HOLY CROSS, DEPARTMENT
More informationConstructing Absolute Return Funds with ETFs: A Dynamic Risk-Budgeting Approach. July 2008
Consrucing Absolue Reurn Funds wih ETFs: A Dynamic Risk-Budgeing Approach July 2008 Noël Amenc Direcor, EDHEC Risk & Asse Managemen Research Cenre Professor of Finance, EDHEC Business School noel.amenc@edhec-risk.com
More informationValuing Volatility Spillovers
Valuing Volailiy Spillovers George Milunovich Division of Economic and Financial Sudies Macquarie Universiy Sydney Susan Thorp School of Finance and Economics Universiy of Technology Sydney March 2006
More informationIs the Decline in the Frequency of Draws in Test Match Cricket Detrimental to the Long Form of the Game? # Liam J. A. Lenten *
Is he Decline in he Frequency of Draws in Tes Mach Cricke Derimenal o he Long Form of he Game? # Liam J. A. Lenen * Deparmen of Economics and Finance La Trobe Universiy Absrac The frequency of draws in
More informationA Stable Money Demand: Looking for the Right Monetary Aggregate
A Sable Money Demand: Looking for he Righ Moneary Aggregae Pedro Teles Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, CEPR. Ruilin Zhou Pennsylvania Sae Universiy January, 2005 Absrac In his paper, we argue ha M1 is
More informationThe Great Recession in the U.K. Labour Market: A Transatlantic View
The Grea Recession in he U.K. Labour Marke: A Transalanic View Michael W. L. Elsby (Edinburgh, Michigan, NBER) Jennifer C. Smih (Warwick) Bank of England, 25 March 2011 U.K. and U.S. unemploymen U.K. unemploymen
More informationImproving Measurement Uncertainty of Differential Pressures at High Line Pressures & the Potential Impact on the Global Economy & Environment.
Improving Measuremen Uncerainy of Differenial Pressures a igh Line Pressures & he Poenial Impac on he Global Economy & Environmen. Speaker/uhor: Mike Collins Fluke Calibraion 5 urricane Way Norwich. NR6
More informationBootstrapping Multilayer Neural Networks for Portfolio Construction
Asia Pacific Managemen Review 17(2) (2012) 113-126 Boosrapping Mulilayer Neural Neworks for Porfolio Consrucion Chin-Sheng Huang a*, Zheng-Wei Lin b, Cheng-Wei Chen c www.apmr.managemen.ncku.edu.w a Deparmen
More information8/31/11. the distance it travelled. The slope of the tangent to a curve in the position vs time graph for a particles motion gives:
Physics 101 Tuesday Class 2 Chaper 2 Secions 2.1-2.4 Displacemen and disance Velociy and speed acceleraion Reading Quiz The slope of he angen o a curve in he posiion vs ime graph for a paricles moion gives:
More informationSimulation based approach for measuring concentration risk
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Simulaion based approach for measuring concenraion risk Kim, Joocheol and Lee, Duyeol UNSPECIFIED February 27 Online a hp://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2968/ MPRA Paper No.
More informationAutomatic air-main charging and pressure control system for compressed air supplies
Auomaic air-main charging and pressure conrol sysem for compressed air supplies Type PCS A module from he sysem -vacorol Swiching on-off a compressed air uni in a compressed air supply generally akes place
More informationPrepared by: Candice A. Churchwell, Senior Consultant Aimee C. Savage, Project Analyst. June 17, 2014 CALMAC ID SCE0350
Execuive Summary: 2014 2024 Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company Submied o Souhern California Edison Co. Submied by Nexan, Inc. June 17, 2014 CALMAC ID SCE0350 Prepared by: Candice
More informationZelio Control Measurement Relays RM4L Liquid Level Relays
Zelio Conrol Measuremen elays FNCTIONS These devices monior he levels of conducive liquids. They conrol he acuaion of pumps or valves o regulae levels; hey are also suiable for proecing submersible pumps
More information3.00 m. 8. At La Ronde, the free-fall ride called the Orbit" causes a 60.0 kg person to accelerate at a rate of 9.81 m/s 2 down.
Physics Prees: Torque 1. Newon s 2 nd Law 2. Kinemaics (Free fall, graphs, and combined wih F R = ma) Pracice Quesions/Problems 1. Wha is Newon s 2 nd Law? Name and explain i. 2. Prove ha acceleraion for
More informationCentre for Investment Research Discussion Paper Series. Momentum Profits and Time-Varying Unsystematic Risk
Cenre for Invesmen Research Discussion Paper Series Discussion Paper # 08-0* Momenum Profis and Time-Varying Unsysemaic Risk Cenre for Invesmen Research O'Rahilly Building, Room 3.0 Universiy College Cork
More informationMethods for Estimating Term Structure of Interest Rates
Mehods for Esimaing Term Srucure of Ineres Raes Iskander Karibzhanov Absrac This paper compares differen inerpolaion algorihms for consrucing yield curves: cubic splines, linear and quadraic programming,
More informationPerformance Attribution for Equity Portfolios
PERFORMACE ATTRIBUTIO FOR EQUITY PORTFOLIOS Performance Aribuion for Equiy Porfolios Yang Lu and David Kane Inroducion Many porfolio managers measure performance wih reference o a benchmark. The difference
More information67.301/1. RLP 10: Pneumatic volume-flow controller. Sauter Components
7.0/ RL 0: neumaic volume-flow conroller How energ efficienc is improved For demand-led conrol of he air volume in office rooms. Areas of applicaion Conrol of he suppl and exhaus air of individual rooms
More informationMomentum profits and time varying unsystematic risk
Momenum profis and ime varying unsysemaic risk Aricle Acceped Version Li, X., Miffre, J., Brooks, C. and O'Sullivan, N. (008) Momenum profis and ime varying unsysemaic risk. Journal of Banking & Finance,
More informationDual Boost High Performances Power Factor Correction (PFC)
Dual Boos High Performances Power Facor Correcion (PFC) C. Aaianese, Senior Member, IEEE - V. Nardi, Member, IEEE - F. Parillo - G. Tomasso, Member, IEEE Deparmen of Auomaion, Elecromagneism, Compuer Science
More informationTransit Priority Strategies for Multiple Routes Under Headway-Based Operations
Transi Prioriy Sraegies for Muliple Roues Under Headway-Based Operaions Yongjie Lin, Xianfeng Yang, Gang-Len Chang, and Nan Zou This paper presens a ransi signal prioriy (TSP) model designed o consider
More informationMeasuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya
Universiy of Connecicu DigialCommons@UConn Economics Working Papers Deparmen of Economics Ocober 2005 Measuring Poenial Oupu and Oupu Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya Angelica E. Njuguna
More informationCorresponding Author
Inernaional Journal of Scienific & Engineering Research Volume 9, Issue 4, April-2018 562 STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF NON-LINEAR PIPE BENDS 1 KALIKI HEMANTH, M.IMTHIYAS SHERIFF, KODAM VINEETH KUMAR, 2 M.ANANDRAJ,
More informationName Class Date. Step 2: Rearrange the acceleration equation to solve for final speed. a v final v initial v. final v initial v.
Skills Workshee Mah Skills Acceleraion Afer you sudy each sample problem and soluion, work ou he pracice problems on a separae shee of paper. Wrie your answers in he spaces provided. In 1970, Don Big Daddy
More informationSingle Index and Portfolio Models for Forecasting Value-at- Risk Thresholds *
Single Index and Porfolio Models for Forecasing Value-a- Risk Thresholds * Bernardo da Veiga and Michael McAleer School of Economics and Commerce Universiy of Wesern Ausralia January 2005 Absrac: The variance
More informationNeighborhood & Community Services Department
Bren Childers NCS Direcor Telephone: 270.393.3658 Fax: 270.901.3126 Bren.Childers@bgky.org 707 E. Main A PO Box 430 Bowling Green, Kenucky 42102 www.bgky.org January 20, 2017 Dear Propery Owner: Neighborhood
More informationLocal Does as Local Is: Information Content of the Geography of Individual Investors Common Stock Investments
Local Does as Local Is: Informaion Conen of he Geography of Individual Invesors Common Sock Invesmens Zoran Ivković and Sco Weisbenner Deparmen of Finance Universiy of Illinois a Urbana-Champaign 340 Wohlers
More informationSLIPPERY SLOPE? ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE 2002 WINTER OLYMPIC GAMES IN SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Région e Développemen n 312010 SLIPPERY SLOPE? ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE 2002 WINTER OLYMPIC GAMES IN SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH Rober A. BAADE*, Rober W. BAUMANN** and Vicor A. MATHESON*** Absrac
More informationTowards a New Dynamic Measure of Competitive Balance: A Study Applied to Australia s Two Major Professional Football Leagues *
Economic Analysis & Policy, Vol. 39 No. 3, december 2009 Towards a New Dynamic Measure of Compeiive Balance: A Sudy Applied o Ausralia s Two Major Professional Fooball Leagues * Liam J. A. Lenen School
More informationSources of Over-Performance in Equity Markets: Mean Reversion, Common Trends and Herding
The Universiy of Reading THE BUSINESS SCHOOL FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS Sources of Over-Performance in Equiy Markes: Mean Reversion, Common Trends and Herding ISMA Cenre Discussion Papers in Finance 2003-08
More informationUnsystematic Risk. Xiafei Li Cass Business School, City University. Joëlle Miffre Cass Business School, City University
The Universiy of Reading Momenum Profis and Time-Varying Unsysemaic Risk Xiafei Li Cass Business School, Ciy Universiy Joëlle Miffre Cass Business School, Ciy Universiy Chris Brooks ICMA Cenre, Universiy
More informationPerformance Optimization of Markov Models in Simulating Computer Networks
Proceedings of he World Congress on Engineering and Copuer Science 9 Vol I WCECS 9, Ocober -, 9, San Francisco, USA Perforance Opiizaion of Marov Models in Siulaing Copuer Newors Nisrine Sinno, Hussein
More informationType Control action Setpoint range Air Weight Volume flow % capacity I n /h kg. Pressure diff. 1) Pa
7.0/ RL 0 & 0: neumaic volume-flow conroller Used in conjuncion wih an orifice plae or a dnamic pressure sensor and a pneumaic damper drive for conrolling he air volume in air-condiioning ssems. For fixed,
More informationTRACK PROCEDURES 2016 RACE DAY
TRACK PROCEDURES 2016 RACE DAY Pi gaes will officially open a 4:00pm for regular programs. Big shows will have earlier opening imes. Hauler parking may be available approximaely 1 hour prior o pi gaes
More informationA Statistical, Age-Structured, Life-History-Based Stock Assessment Model for Anadromous Alosa
American Fisheries Sociey Symposium 35:275 283, 2003 2003 by he American Fisheries Sociey A Saisical, Age-Srucured, Life-Hisory-Based Sock Assessmen Model for Anadromous Alosa A. JAMIE F. GIBSON 1 Acadia
More informationA Study on the Powering Performance of Multi-Axes Propulsion Ships with Wing Pods
Second Inernaional Symposium on Marine Propulsors smp amburg Germany une A Sudy on he Powering Performance of Muli-Axes Propulsion Ships wih Wing Pods eungwon Seo Seokcheon Go Sangbong Lee and ungil Kwon
More informationThe Construction of a Bioeconomic Model of the Indonesian Flying Fish Fishery
Marine Resource Economics, Volume 0, pp. 357372 0738-360/95 $3.00 +.00 Prined in he U.S.A. All righs reserved. Copyrigh 995 Marine Resources Foundaion The Consrucion of a Bioeconomic Model of he Indonesian
More informationAugust 2010 MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE MIDDLEBURY, VERMONT 05753
When is the Honeymoon Over for Baseball s New Stadiums? by Mark B. Whelan Paul M. Sommers August 2010 MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 10-32 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE
More informationGuidance Statement on Calculation Methodology
Guidance Saemen on Calculaion Mehodology Adopion Dae: 28 Sepember 200 Effecive Dae: January 20 Reroacive Applicaion: No Required www.gipssandards.org 200 CFA Insiue Guidance Saemen on Calculaion Mehodology
More informationPortfolio Strategies Based on Analysts Consensus
Porfolio Sraegies Based on Analyss Consensus Enrico Maria Cervellai Deparmen of Managemen Faculy of Economics Universiy of Bologna Piazza Scaravilli, 1 40126 Bologna Tel: +39 (0)51 2098087 Fax: +39 (0)51
More informationTesting Portfolio Efficiency with Non-Traded Assets: Taking into Account Labor Income, Housing and Liabilities
Tesing Porfolio Efficiency wih Non-Traded Asses: Taking ino Accoun Labor Income, Housing and Liabiliies Roy Kouwenberg Mahidol Universiy and Erasmus Universiy Roerdam Thierry Pos Erasmus Universiy Roerdam
More informationEndogenous Fishing Mortality in Life History Models: Relaxing Some Implicit Assumptions
Endogenous Fishing Moraliy in Life Hisory Models: Relaxing Some Implici Assumpions Marin D. Smih * Nicholas School of he Environmen and Earh Sciences Duke Universiy Box 90328 Durham, NC 27708 (919) 613-8028
More informationSIMULATION OF WAVE EFFECT ON SHIP HYDRODYNAMICS BY RANSE
1 h Inernaional Conference on Sabiliy of Ships and Ocean Vehicles 591 SIMULATION OF WAVE EFFECT ON SHIP HYDRODYNAMICS BY RANSE Qiuxin Gao, Universiy of Srahclyde, UK, Gao.q.x@srah.ac.uk Dracos Vassalos,
More informationAvoiding Component Failure in Industrial Refrigeration Systems
Avoiding Componen Failure in Indusrial Refrigeraion Sysems By Tim Kroeger, segmen markeing manager indusrial refrigeraion, Asia Pacific & India The aricle caegorises and gives examples of ypical componen
More informationSudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and Real Exchange Rates
Sudden Sops, Secoral Reallocaions, and Real Exchange Raes Timohy J. Kehoe Universiy of Minnesoa Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Kim J. Ruhl NYU Sern School of Business Wha Happens During a Sudden
More information