Derek Jeter s Legacy Contract: Briefing and Predictions regarding Free Agency and 3,000 Hits

Transcription

1 Derek Jeter s Legacy Contract: Briefing and Predictions regarding Free Agency and 3,000 Hits The Second in a Series of Sports Business Commentaries on Current Events November

2 The following Podcast is presented as a simplified case study that focuses on selected dimensions of contract negotiations and statistical analyses in the sports industry. The Podcast is solely intended to emphasize the extraordinary accomplishments of professional athletes, using Derek Jeter, an altruistic athlete and role model, as an example. 2

3 Welcome and Introduction - Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D., Divisional Dean Overviews with Analyses - Wayne G. McDonnell, Jr., M.B.A., Clinical Associate Professor of Sports Management Predictions, Summary and Conclusion - Additional Information 3

4 Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D. Divisional Dean NYU Tisch Center 4

5 Wayne G. McDonnell, Jr., M.B.A. Clinical Associate Professor of Sports Management NYU Tisch Center 5

6 1. The Cornerstone 2. Leadership Style 3. The Days Ahead 4. Summary of the 2010 season 5. Free Agency and Upcoming Negotiations 6. Position Change and the precedent set by the Yankees 7. Variables of Importance 8. The Journey to 3,000 hits 9. Hall of Fame Analyses 10. Predictions 11. Conclusion 6

7 Five world championships Countless personal accolades and achievements Ultimate teammate and consummate professional Fierce competitor Affinity for postseason heroics and championships rings Pillar of integrity and consistency Birthright to don the pinstripes 7

8 Pays homage to the Yankee legends that preceded him Elegance of Joe DiMaggio Humility of Lou Gehrig Endearing qualities Revered captain similar to Thurman Munson and Don Mattingly Leads by example 8

9 The Days Ahead Derek Jeter will become a free agent in a matter of days His vast accomplishments will be studied by various experts from academia, the sports media and within the baseball industry Many will reassess Derek Jeter s overall value as a baseball player by studying variables ranging from statistics to his impact on attendance and the New York Yankee brand 9

10 Career lows in: - Batting Average (.270) - On-Base Percentage (.340) - Slugging Percentage (.370) - On Base + Slugging Percentage (.710) Source: Baseball-Reference.com 10

11 August 1 st through October 3 rd : batting average (61 for 232) % (49 for 61) of Jeter s hits during this period were singles - 12 extra base hits - Last home run hit was on August 24 th versus the Toronto Blue Jays Source: Baseball-Reference.com 11

12 Errors and Fielding Percentage - The least amount of errors committed in Jeter s career - Only 6 errors on 553 total chances - Highest fielding percentage of his career (.989) - However, the 553 total chances were the second lowest in his career during the seasons - During his injury-plagued year of 2003, Jeter only had 444 chances Source: Baseball-Reference.com 12

13 Derek Jeter s 10-year, $189M contract will expire at season s end Will Derek Jeter explore the open market? Could the parameters of a new contract be consummated during the 15 day period at the end of the World Series? 13

14 Differ greatly from the hundreds of contracts that the Yankees have negotiated in the past Conventional statistical comparisons New-age calculations developed by sabermetricians Possible position change? 14

15 Derek Jeter has ascended to the pantheon of Yankee immortality He might encounter a similar situation that both Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra did at the end of their Yankee careers 15

16 Mickey Mantle - During his final two seasons ( ), he played 262 games at first base - In 1968, Mantle had committed 15 errors at first base (2 nd most in his career) Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org 16

17 Yogi Berra - Periods of experimentation in the outfield ( ) - Gradual transition began in earnest in 1958 after more than a decade behind the plate - Continued to catch until 1965, but he began to spend more time playing the outfield in the twilight of his career Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org 17

18 At this stage of Jeter s career, it is unfair to compare him statistically to other shortstops in the game While statistical analyses are of profound importance, Jeter s next contract with the Yankees will not solely rest on fielding percentage, batting average or on-base percentage 18

19 The Yankees have already set a precedent by handsomely rewarding their homegrown superstars Three of The Core Four Mariano Rivera - Ageless wonder - 3-year, $45M contract expiring at the end of this season - Average annual value is $15M Jorge Posada - Declining due to injury - 4-year, $52.4M contract that expires after the 2011 season - Average annual value is $13.1M Source: Cot s Baseball Contracts ( 19

20 Andy Pettitte Three of The Core Four - One-year contracts with the Yankees for the past four years ( ) - 1-year, $11.75M contract that expires at the end of this season - In previous years, Pettitte s one-year deals were actually worth $16M per season Source: Cot s Baseball Contracts ( 20

21 Arguments in support of Derek Jeter s next contract with the Yankees - Statistical analyses - Legacy - Meritorious Service - Intangibles - Upcoming Milestones 21

22 Derek Jeter will join the 3,000 hit club at some point during the summer of 2011 There are only three men who have played a majority of their careers as shortstops to have accumulated more than 3,000 hits Hall of Famers - Honus Wagner (3,420) - Cal Ripken, Jr. (3,184) - Robin Yount (3,142) Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org 22

23 Derek Jeter is currently the all time Major League leader in hits by a shortstop Derek Jeter would also be the first player to reach the 3,000 hit plateau while wearing a Yankee uniform Former Yankees in the 3,000 Hit Club - Dave Winfield (3,110) - Rickey Henderson (3,055) - Wade Boggs (3,010) - Paul Waner (3,152) Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org 23

24 Please keep the following facts in mind while studying and analyzing the following graphs and charts Facts of Importance Regarding Derek Jeter - Major League debut was on May 29, Played in only 15 games in Dislocated his left shoulder on Opening Day in 2003 while sliding into third base and colliding with Blue Jays catcher Ken Huckaby - Missed six weeks and 36 games as a result of the Opening Day injury Source: Baseball-Reference.com 24

25 Please keep the following facts in mind while studying and analyzing the following graphs and charts 1999 Best Offensive Year of Jeter s Career - Hits (219) - Home Runs (24) - Batting Average (.349) - RBI (102) - Runs (134) - Triples (9) - Base on Balls (91) - Total Bases (346) - On-Base % (.438) - OPS (.989) - Slugging % (.552) Source: Baseball-Reference.com 25

26 2,926 Career Hits '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Source: Baseball-Reference.com

27 Total Career Hits Per Month Total Career Hits Per Month ( ) March April May June July August September October Source: Baseball-Reference.com

28 Average Hits Per Month ( ) March April May June July August September October Source: Baseball-Reference.com

29 Yearly Batting Averages ( ) '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Source: Baseball-Reference.com

30 Average Hits Per Game ( ) '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Source: Baseball-Reference.com

31 Average Hits Per Week ( ) '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Note: Assuming a 26 week schedule ( ) and a 2 week schedule (1995) Source: Baseball-Reference.com

32 There are 22 members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame that have played a majority of their careers as shortstops Ironically, Chicago Cubs great Ernie Banks is classified as a first baseman due to the fact that 50.85% (1,259) of the games he played in were as a first baseman while only 45.44% (1,125) were played as a shortstop Two Hall of Fame shortstops, Pop Lloyd and Willie Wells, were Negro League players Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org 32

33 14 Categories Derek Jeter s Career Statistics vs. the Average of 21 Hall of Fame Shortstops For matters of comparison, Ernie Banks has been included in the following analyses Negro League ball players Pop Lloyd and Willie Wells were excluded from the analyses since they never played in the major leagues 33

34 Honus Wagner Cal Ripken, Jr. Robin Yount Luke Appling Luis Apparicio George Davis Rabbit Maranville Ernie Banks Ozzie Smith Bobby Wallace Joe Cronin Joe Sewell Pee Wee Reese John Ward Arky Vaughan Dave Bancroft Lou Boudreau Travis Jackson Joe Tinker Phil Rizzuto Hugh Jennings 34

35 Seven Offensive Categories - Hits - Home Runs - RBI - Stolen Bases - Batting Average - On-Base Percentage - Slugging % 35

36 Seven Defensive Categories - Games Played at Shortstop - Chances - Putouts - Assists - Errors - Double Plays - Fielding % 36

37 Derek Jeter vs. Average Hall of Fame Shortstop 10,000 9,000 8,000 9,461 9,278 7,000 6,000 5,524 5,718 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,926 2,335 1,060 2,274 1,708 1,135 3,498 3,341 1,000 0 Hits RBI Games Played at SS Chances Putouts Assists Average Hall of Fame Shortstop Derek Jeter Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org

38 Derek Jeter vs. Average Hall of Fame Shortstop 1,400 1,227 1,200 1, Home Runs Stolen Bases Errors Double Plays Average Hall of Fame Shortstop Derek Jeter Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org

39 Derek Jeter vs. Average Hall of Fame Shortstop Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage Fielding Percentage Average Hall of Fame Shortstop Derek Jeter Sources: Baseball-Reference.com & Baseballhall.org

40 Barring any of the following factors: - Injury - Changes in the schedule due to weather - Off day scheduled by the manager If Derek Jeter maintains his career average of 7.47 hits per week, I predict that he will achieve 3,000 hits at some point during the June 7 th 9 th series at Yankee Stadium versus the Boston Red Sox next season. Note: Assuming a 26 week schedule 40

41 Derek Jeter will sign a four-year, $84M contract with the Yankees plus incentives Similar to the contracts of Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, Jeter s annual salary of $21M will remain flat over the life of the contract One of the incentives in Jeter s contract will be $6M for achieving 3,000 hits Another incentive will be an additional $6M if Jeter surpasses Hank Aaron s 3,771 career hits (3 rd all time) No-trade clause Total overall value if all of the incentives are achieved $96M 41

42 During , Derek Jeter has averaged hits per season At the present moment, Jeter has 2,926 career hits If Derek Jeter were to maintain his career average of hits per season over the next four years, he would have accumulated 3,703 hits by the time he was 40 years old (68 shy of Hank Aaron) In comparison, by the time Pete Rose had turned 40 in 1981, he had accumulated 3,697 hits by the end of the season 42

43 Profoundly admired and revered While baseball statistics will play an important role in the upcoming negotiations, legacy, branding, and career achievements will prominently factor in the final outcome Derek Jeter is an icon and he will be handsomely rewarded for what he has done and what he has meant to the New York Yankees 43

44 The Business of Baseball January 6-8, 2011 in New York City The new winter intensive course offered by the New York University Preston Robert Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism, and Sports Management Faculty: Wayne G. McDonnell, Jr., M.B.A., Clinical Associate Professor To request an application, call (212) or 44

45 Bachelor of Science Degrees: - B.S. in Hotel and Tourism Management - B.S. in Sports Management Master of Science Degrees: - M.S. Hospitality Industry Studies - M.S. Tourism Management - M.S. Sports Business Accelerated Certificates: - Hotel Operations - Restaurant Operations - Meeting and Conference Management Certificate and Courses: - Meeting, Conference and Event Management Summer Intensives: - The Business of Baseball - The Business of Professional Football For additional information: 45

46 NYU Preston Robert Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism, and Sports Management A copy of this PowerPoint presentation is available at: - (Tisch Center citation required when sharing podcast information) Questions and comments may be sent to: - tisch.center@nyu.edu Follow the NYU Tisch Center on Twitter at: