Top Fantasy Baseball Prospects for 2016

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1 TheFantasySmith Top Fantasy Baseball Prospects for 2016 By: Chris Smith

2 Prospects Introduction This year I am starting a new series in which I tackle fantasy baseball rankings at every position. To kick off this inaugural season, I wanted to share my first ever top prospects list. This list was made using a lot of different resources and information collected over the past several seasons of scouting players and playing in dynasty fantasy baseball leagues. As you browse the names and rankings, keep in mind that the focus is solely on projected fantasy baseball value. Now I wouldn t say WAR is good for absolutely nothing, but the offensive production of these players is the main driving force. I ve always been a firm believer that if a player can produce at the plate and on the base paths, they will find a place to play in the field. Take Kyle Schwarber for example. If you watched the NLCS last season when the Cubs played the Mets, you saw a completely flawed outfielder who has a lot of learning ahead of him. Keep in mind, Schwarber came up through the minors as a catcher, so he hadn t had a ton of outfield experience leading up to last season. However, because his bat was so good (especially against RHP), Joe Maddon was forced to get him in the lineup. When I look at prospects, there s a lot of factors that come into play. First of all, what kind of player are they. I have always been fascinated by players who get the label of Five-Tool Player, but I m getting to the point where I think that term is tossed around too loosely. In the case of many players below, several of them are good in many areas of the game, whether it be gap-to-gap contact hitters, power hitters or base stealers. But often times, as players move up through their respective organizations, they see a decline in specific areas as they try to improve others. This year, Joey Gallo was one of the hardest players to rank on this list. In 2014 between high A and double A, Gallo hit a respectable.271 and got on base at a clip of.394. Heading into 2015, he skyrocketed prospect lists. This player who was known for hit one great skill (hitting for power) seemed to be coming around at the plate. Like many great power hitters over the past decade, Gallo strikes out a lot. That s sometimes just par for the course. So last year, when Gallo got a taste at the major league level, he underwhelmed at the plate. He did so much that the skeptics of his are louder than ever. Can this guy produce at the major league level with just one tool, or will he be able to adjust? The next factor that comes into play when looking at prospects is their ability to play above their age level. For those of you that watch or follow minor league baseball, you will often read that such and such prospect is the youngest player in the entire league. If this is the case, and that player is holding their own, that is a really positive sign. One idea that a lot of people get stuck on is that prospects have to dominate at each level they play. That s not true at all. Being able to play with players that have more experience can only help a player grow and develop. And a lot of times when a prospect struggles it helps them point out flaws in their game that can be improved pretty easily. If you think about it, a lot of these players have never failed at baseball in their entire lives. I enjoy reading player backgrounds and see that their senior year in high school they had an under 1.00 ERA, averaging 15 K/9. And on top of that, they also hit over.400 at the plate with multiple home runs. Let s face the facts. These kids have been studs throughout their entire baseball career.

3 The last major factor in evaluating prospects is their ceiling. I m always amazed by how many players put up exceptional numbers throughout their entire minor league career and then struggle once they meet the big leagues. And this is usually not a fluke. Baseball scouts are amazing at their jobs. They can see through individual player success and see them for who they really are. On the surface, a casual baseball fan will look at a player s minor league numbers and think they can project what kind of player they will be. A lot of times that s just not the case. When I created my list below, I wanted to rank players based on their ceiling projections. For those of you that play in dynasty leagues, you know that minor league players often times have a higher trade value than consistent producers at the major league level. And why is that? Because we all want to own the next Mike Trout. We want to be the guy that owned the next superstar before they were ever called up to the big leagues. So back to ceiling projections, basically this means what s the max value a player can have when they reach their prime in the show. This is why you will see a lot of 18 and 19 year olds higher on prospect lists. When players are younger, we often tend to project them to be more than what they will ever become. Often times this also leads to unfair comparisons to current or former MLB players. In the 2013 MLB draft, Kohl Stewart, who was drafted by Twins 4 th overall, was said to have the highest ceiling of any pitcher coming out of that draft. The hype was real. So naturally, I snatched him up in the first round of my dynasty draft. In my scouting of him and reading others, I too felt like he was a can t miss prospect. However, as some have probably found out the hard way, ceilings can sometimes cave in and collapse. Now Stewart isn t a complete bust yet, but he s trending in the wrong direction in the Twins organization. This year s list of my top 60 fantasy baseball prospects features 1 catcher, 4 first baseman, 1 second baseman, 3 third baseman, 12 shortstops, 18 outfielders and 21 pitchers. With all of these pitchers, I rank them based on them being starting pitchers. I m one that will also believe that bullpen arms are made up mostly of failed or injury-prone starters. Now, what really jumped out at me this year was the amount of quality fantasy shortstops that are working their way up to the big leagues. For those of you that play fantasy baseball, think back to the last couple of years. The shortstop position has been a graveyard. Owning a premium shortstop was beginning to feel like owning a premium catcher. It was just that rare. However, now we re starting to see a shift coming back in the way of the shortstop position. Keep in mind, a lot of really good players come up through the minors as shortstops, only to be moved to another positon later. This is usually because shortstops are the most athletically-gifted players on the team and can adapt to new surroundings. As I was ranking these players, I started to wonder if I was ranking too many shortstops. If a position becomes so stacked, does it really matter if you own the player ranked #1 over #10? This is a battle for fantasy owners every year when it comes to outfielders. Does it pay to load up on OF early in drafts while passing on more scarce positions? That really comes down to personal preference. Another interesting sub plot of these rankings is only finding one catcher on the list. We all know the catcher position is dying in fantasy baseball, and it s not about to get better anytime soon. The lone catcher on the list, Gary Sanchez, wouldn t even have made my list had he not been catcher eligible. That s really the only way he s staying afloat. I ve also noticed, over the past couple of seasons, a downward trend in the amount of starting pitchers near the top of

4 lists. I truly believe this is because pitchers are getting harder to predict with each passing year. There are so many pitchers getting Tommy John Surgery before ever making it to the majors. In fact, there are kids getting drafted that are recovering from TJS. One example of this was Lucas Giolito, the Nationals top prospect. When they drafted him in 2012, they had a pretty good idea he was going to go under the knife. Even so, they picked him with the 16 th overall pick in the draft. Going even more philosophical, many pitchers nowadays are harder to rely on season after season because of their baseball specialization at a young age. The statistics of kids only playing one sport as they get older can be the cause of some of these injuries. Obviously this is a debate for another time, but the bottom line is that every pitcher only has so many innings in their arm. If they get overworked at any level, it could lead to a bigger consequence down the road. Anyways, because of this, I am starting to become a little more gun shy when ranking/projecting prospect pitchers. At the conclusion of my top 60 pitchers, I have also created two more sections. The first is a table titled, Remember Me? This section focuses on five pitchers that have all been considered high-end prospects and still have yet to produce at the level owners thought they would. One thing all of you could do just for fun is go back and look at prospects lists from five, even ten years ago and see how many players you actually know. It s a really interesting exercise. Back to the list, I didn t rank any of these five pitchers in my top 60, but that doesn t mean they can t reach that level anymore. It just means that I ve decided to move away from the risks associated with them and take a wait-and-see approach. One name on that list that I still believe can tap into his potential is Archie Bradley. If you remember back to last season, he took a shot to his face on a comebacker and just wasn t the same after. But before the injury, he was showing signs of being the top prospect that he once was. As you ll see below, at one point (2014) he was considered the #9 prospect in all of baseball. It s also interesting to note that three of the five pitchers on that list have already had Tommy John Surgery, setting them back at least a year and a half of development. The last section I highlighted two players I really think will break out in a big way in I could have listed several names in that category, but I decided to just narrow it down to one hitter and one pitcher. To prospectors out there, these names aren t a really big secret, but ones that I believe can be in the top 20 at this time next season. They are also 17 and 18 years old, respectively. Overall, I had a great time coming up with these rankings. I hope you enjoy them and I look forward to any discussion/feedback you might have. It s always fun to agree/disagree about player upside with other prospect experts, dynasty owners or just fans of specific teams. Just remember, at the end of the day, the best prospect researchers are still just making educated guesses about these players. Baseball is filled with randomness and what if s, so whether it be good or bad, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

5 Prospects Yoan Moncada BOS 2B 20 2 Corey Seager LAD SS/3B 21 3 Lucas Giolito WAS RHP 21 4 Julio Urias LAD LHP 19 5 Byron Buxton MIN OF 22 6 Jose Berrios MIN RHP 21 7 Alex Reyes STL RHP 21 8 JP Crawford PHI SS 21 9 Steven Matz NYM LHP Brendan Rodgers COL SS 19 Prospects Rafael Devers BOS 3B AJ Reed HOU 1B Nomar Mazara TEX OF Orlando Arcia MIL SS/2B Alex Bregman HOU SS Dansby Swanson ATL SS Tyler Glasnow PIT RHP Joey Gallo TEX 3B/OF Lewis Brinson TEX OF Andrew Benintendi BOS OF 21 Prospects David Dahl COL OF Blake Snell TB LHP Trea Turner WAS SS/2B Nick Williams PHI OF Manuel Margot SD OF Bradley Zimmer CLE OF Clint Frazier CLE OF Raimel Tapia COL OF Austin Meadows PIT OF Tim Anderson CHW SS 22

6 Prospects Brett Phillips MIL OF Aaron Judge NYY OF Jesse Winker CIN OF Robert Stephenson CIN RHP Franklin Barreto OAK SS Jorge Mateo NYY SS Gleyber Torres CHC SS Jose De Leon LAD RHP Ozhaino Albies ATL SS Ian Happ CHC OF 21 Prospects Carson Fulmer CHW RHP Jeff Hoffman COL RHP Max Kepler MIN OF Gary Sanchez NYY C Dominic Smith NYM 1B Dillon Tate TEX RHP Luis Ortiz TEX RHP Taylor Guerrieri TB RHP Jonathan Gray COL RHP Aaron Blair ATL RHP 23 Prospects Ryan McMahon COL 3B Victor Robles WAS OF Bobby Bradley CLE 1B Braden Shipley ARI RHP Anthony Alford TOR OF Hunter Harvey BAL RHP Sean Manaea OAK LHP Josh Bell PIT 1B Jack Flaherty STL RHP Rob Kaminsky CLE LHP 21

7 Rankings Analysis Don t be surprised by Moncada checking in at #1. This kid is legit. 8 HR, 38 RBI, 49 SB and a.380 OBP in only 363 plate appearances in This is just a taste of what s next. ETA: 2017 Byron Buxton was one of the hardest players for me to rank. He has a chance to be a really good player, but there are enough red flags for me to pump the brakes on his projection. You probably won t see him lower than this on any prospect lists in Many of you may be surprised by Brendan Rodgers cracking the top 10. He s still a couple years away, but a SS playing in Colorado is enough for me to place him there with confidence. ETA: 2018 A pitcher that flew under the radar this past season was Taylor Guerrieri. He needs to clean up his act off the field, but on the field he s been dominant. He owns a career 2.18 ERA in career innings in the minors. Did I mention his WHIP is under 1.00 as well? This is your last chance to buy low. A lot of prospect experts love Robert Stephenson. I refuse to follow their lead. I ranked him due to his high strikeout potential, but his command is subpar and Cincinnati isn t exactly the greatest park for a pitcher with his skillset. Andrew Benintendi may have the best bat from the 2015 draft class. The Red Sox continue to load up on high-end talent. I wouldn t be surprised to see this guy rank in the top 5 in ETA: 2017 Aaron Blair being traded to the Braves this offseason might help propel his career. He has the chance to be a #2 SP in Atlanta. The opposite goes for Dansby Swanson, as Turner Field isn t quite as hitter friendly as Chase. Anthony Alford is a really intriguing prospect for the Blue Jays. Hasn t really played baseball full time until last season. Has the tools and the makeup to be an impact bat in Toronto. Keep an eye on him this season. ETA: 2017 Jose De Leon made a huge jump in 2015, striking out 163 batters in only innings. The big test will come this year as he will start in AA. ETA: 2017 I ranked Lewis Brinson one spot behind Joey Gallo, but I m not convinced Gallo will be the better fantasy contributor. Brinson continues to take strides forward each season and will most likely get his chance in the big leagues this season. Ian Happ didn t produce in his first summer like Schwarber or Bryant did, but this kid can rake at the plate. I expect him to be in the top 20 next season. ETA: 2017 Looking for the best fantasy rookie in 2016? Corey Seager is the obvious answer. But AJ Reed might have something to say about that before the year is over. 34 HR and 127 RBI in 2015 across high A and AA. And did I mention he also hit.340 with an OBP of.432? I m expecting him to be in Houston before the end of April. Dillon Tate may be my favorite pitcher out of the 2015 draft class. Mid 90s fastball with an above-average slider. It will take him a few years, but has front of the rotation potential. ETA: 2017 The St. Louis Cardinals pitching factory is at it again. Jack Flaherty, 1 st round pick in 2014, could shoot up through the ranks this year ERA in career innings. ETA: 2017

8 Remember Me? 1 Jameson Taillon PIT RHP 24 2 Dylan Bundy BAL RHP 23 3 Archie Bradley ARZ RHP 23 4 Max Fried ATL LHP 21 5 Kyle Zimmer KC RHP 24 Baseball America Prospect Rankings Taillon (# , # , # , # , # ) Bundy (# , #2 2013, # , # ) Bradley (# , # , #9 2014, # ) Fried (# , # ) Zimmer (# , # ) 2016 Breakout Prospects 1 Anderson Espinoza BOS RHP 17 2 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 18 Espinoza has a special arm. Here is a video Baseball America posted of him back in September. Notice how smooth and compact his mechanics are, making him able to repeat his delivery at a high rate. He has the ceiling of a #1/2 SP, even if he stays in Boston. ETA: Kyle Tucker s numbers don t jump off the page (.246/.294/.647), but don t be fooled. This kid can hit. He was the 5 th overall pick in last year s draft right out of high school. I expect him to take a leap forward this year in his approach at the plate, allowing him to get on base at a much higher clip. Owners may pass on him in dynasty drafts due to his lackluster first 200 at bats in rookie ball. Don t make that mistake. This could be your last chance to get him cheap. ETA: 2019