George F. Will, Men at Work

Transcription

1 Part of baseball s charm is the illusion it offers that all aspects of it can be completely reduced to numerical expressions and printed in agate type in the sport section. George F. Will, Men at Work

2 Tom O Brien

3 The Official Rules of Major League Baseball 1.02 The objective of each team is to win by scoring more runs than their opponent 1.03 The winner of the game shall be that team which shall have scored, in accordance with these rules, the greater number of runs at the conclusion of a regulation game.

4 What are the important factors in winning games? Suppose our team outdoes the opposition in category X. What is the probability that we will win the game?

5 Event Probability, % W/L Runs created Hits + Walks Total Bases Hits Walks (Errors) Stolen Bases

6 The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) SABeRmetrics Sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records - Bill James

7 Offense 50% Defense 50% Offense Runs Created Linear Weights OPS Modified Defense Pitching - ~40% Fielding - ~10%

8 Wins above Replacement Player (WAR) Team Data Runs Scored Ratio or Difference Predict Number of Games Won Individual Data Runs Allowed Other Calculate "Runs per Win" Stuff Defensive Stats Hits Walks Runs Extra Bases Created Pitching Stats Outs Define Runs "Replacement above WAR Player" (R. P.) R. P.

9 The Importance of Felix Hernandez Cy Young Award Won-Lost Percentages of Starting Pitchers (starters have won 23 of 24 awards) 2010 AL: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners Won 13, Lost 12 (others average 20-6) Team record (worst in AL) Felix produced 4.24 wins above team, 6.8 WAR ERA 2.27; best in league Pitched 250 innings; 230 K s 2009: Felix went

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11 Position 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Player Albert Pujols Mark Teixeira Chase Utley (Scott Rolen) Adrian Beltre * Evan Longoria Brendan Ryan Brett Gardner Michael Bourn (Andruw Jones) Jason Heyward Ichiro Suzuki * ( ) Retired 2012 * Beyond peak/dh

12 Wins above Replacement Player (WAR) Team Data Runs Scored Ratio or Difference Predict Number of Games Won Individual Data Runs Allowed Other Calculate "Runs per Win" Stuff Defensive Stats Hits Walks Runs Extra Bases Created Pitching Stats Outs Define Runs "Replacement above WAR Player" (R. P.) R. P.

13 RC = (H + W) x (TB) / (AB + W) Rearranged: RC = [(H + W) / (AB + W)] x (TB) RC = OBP x (SP x AB) Quality: OBP x SP Quantity: At Bats

14 RC = (H + W CS) x (TB x SB) / (AB + W) = A x B / C A Reaching base B Advancement C Opportunities

15 A factor: B factor: H + W CS becomes H + W CS + HBP GIDP TB x SB becomes TB (TBB IBB + HBP) (SH + SF + SB) C factor: AB + W becomes AB + W + HBP + SH + SF Bill James has about 15 different technical versions use depends on availability of various stats

16 The Runs Created Formulas 1964 AL Team Runs Basic SB version Tech Boston Detroit New York Minnesota Baltimore Cleveland Chicago Los Angeles Kansas City Washington Average Std Error of Estimate Analysis of Variance Basic 80.1 Tech 6.5 Residue 13.4

17 Runs Created 1985 NL Team A B C RC R StL NY Mtl Chi Phl Pgh LA Cin Hou SD Atl SF Division East West League

18 Wins above Replacement Player (WAR) Team Data Runs Scored Ratio or Difference Predict Number of Games Won Individual Data Runs Allowed Other Calculate "Runs per Win" Stuff Defensive Stats Hits Walks Runs Extra Bases Created Pitching Stats Outs Define Runs "Replacement above WAR Player" (R. P.) R. P.

19 Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics Franchise Encyclopedia: 1997 / , Finished 1st in AL East (Schedule and Results) View League Standings and Leaders Manager: Joe Torre (114-48) Scored 965 runs, Allowed 656 runs. Pythagorean W-L: Ballparks: Yankee Stadium II & Shea Stadium Attendance: 2,955,193 (3rd of 14) Park Factors Over 100 favors batters, under 100 favors pitchers. Multi-year: Batting - 97, Pitching - 95 one-year: Batting - 100, Pitching - 97 Postseason: Won World Series (4-0) over San Diego Padres Won AL Championship Series (4-2) over Cleveland Indians Won AL Division Series (3-0) over Texas Rangers

20 Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics Franchise Encyclopedia: 1997 / , Finished 1st in AL East (Schedule and Results) View League Standings and Leaders Manager: Joe Torre (114-48) Scored 965 runs, Allowed 656 runs. Pythagorean W-L: Ballparks: Yankee Stadium II & Shea Stadium Attendance: 2,955,193 (3rd of 14) Park Factors Over 100 favors batters, under 100 favors pitchers. Multi-year: Batting - 97, Pitching - 95 one-year: Batting - 100, Pitching - 97 Postseason: Won World Series (4-0) over San Diego Padres Won AL Championship Series (4-2) over Cleveland Indians Won AL Division Series (3-0) over Texas Rangers

21 Percentage = (runs scored) 2 / [(runs scored) 2 + (runs allowed) 2 ] P = R 2 / (R 2 + S 2 ) Has found its way into popular culture ****** Variations: P = r 2 / (r 2 + 1) (where r = R/S) W/L = R 2 /S 2 (or W/L = r 2 )

22 P = R 2 / (R 2 + S 2 ) Pythagorean theorem involves an assumption. The best exponent may not be A generalization: P = R n / (R n + S n ) By trial, the best value of n is usually assumed. Advantage: (Slightly) more accurate Disadvantages: More complex Can t call it Pythagorean

23 Linear Results shown by straight line Percentage Coordinates are scoring percentage and winning percentage Neutrality Line must go through (0.500, 0.500) Slope The best value for the slope of the line is close to 1.8

24 W/(W + L) 0.5 = 1.8[R/(R + S) 0.5] P = W/(W + L) = (1.4R 0.4S)/(R + S) Δ = R S P = (R + 0.4Δ)/(R + S)

25 The Beer-Mat Test

26 Situation Proportional (recognize value of runs) Sabermetric (weight value of runs) % of variance AL NL Residue

27 It depends on the average scoring level Let s call the average number of runs, by both teams, ρ Tabulate ratio of runs required to average level ρ Method r= * Pythagorean James Index Linear Percentage (*or 0.8) (Values are runs required for an incremental win, divided by ρ)

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29 OPS RPG Correlation

30 Base-Stealing Performance

31 1) Reduce prep time (simple windup now prevalent) 2) Reduce time to get the ball to the fielder (quick turnaround): Time Success Rate (sec) (%) < >

32 Thank You Slides by Kathleen Jelliffe

33 Alex Rodriguez Albert Pujols 91.8 Derek Jeter 72.3 [2012 Hall-of-Famers] [ ] Carlos Beltran 65.7 Roy Halladay 65.2 Adrian Beltre 65.0 Todd Helton 61.6 Andy Pettitte 58.6 Ichiro Suzuki 57.1 Tim Hudson 56.5 Above first line: in top 50, all-time Above second line: in top 100, all-time (through April 2013)