Emerging Methods for Evaluating Transportation Systems Multimodal LOS and Highway Safety Manual

Transcription

1 Emerging Methods for Evaluating Transportation Systems Multimodal LOS and Highway Safety Manual November 8, 2012 Lake Merritt Tower in Oakland Transportation Education Series 1

2 Presenters Mark Bowman, Senior Principal Engineer Erin Ferguson, Senior Engineer Aaron Elias, Engineering Associate Kamala Parks, Senior Planner 2

3 Multimodal Level of Service (MMLOS) 2010 Highway Capacity Manual Quality of service analysis for: Pedestrians Bicyclists Transit passengers Motorists Integrated methodology LOS results reported by user type Different scales Intersection to corridor 3

4 Highway Safety Manual (HSM) AASHTO publication Safety prediction tools Developed through research Similar to HCM Definitive Widely accepted Science-based From qualitative assessments to quantitative prediction 4

5 Emerging Methods for Evaluation The HSM and MMLOS can: Quantify trade-offs between roadway users for given design features Assist and inform the public process Help prioritize projects that benefit all roadway users Show compliance with Complete Streets legislation 5

6 MMLOS and HSM Applications Identify system needs Evaluate development projects Evaluate design alternatives Improve policies and standards 6

7 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 7

8 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS LONG RANGE PLANNING NETWORK SCREENING FLORIDA DOT DISTRICT 4 HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL

9 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 9

10 Network Screening - Florida DOT District 4 Transportation system plans Broad network considerations help guide recommendations Supported Capital Improvement Plan development Prioritize using safety as a filter Fundamental safety screening projects Prioritize limited budgets to the most needed areas 10

11 Network Screening - Florida DOT District 4 Objective Identify intersections along state roadways that would most likely benefit from safety improvements Nearly 1,300 potential intersections Tasks Literature review Network screening - Preliminary Ranking Crash review Site visits Network Screening - Final ranking Documentation 11

12 Network Screening - Florida DOT District 4 Performance measures 1. Crash frequency Total crashes Fatal and incapacitating injury 2. Equivalent property damage only (EPDO) average crash frequency Frequency/severity score D4 comprehensive crash costs 3. Total crash cost Signalized/Unsignalized FHWA crash costs 4. Excess proportion Signalized/unsignalized Fatal and incapacitating injury Ped/bike, left-turn/angle, right-turn, sideswipe, rearend

13 Network Screening - Florida DOT District 4 Preliminary site selection Identified top 20 sites Detailed crash analysis Site reviews Final site selection Top 6 sites

14 Network Screening - Florida DOT District 4 Summary Identify greatest needs Funding directed to locations where investments have the most opportunity to decrease crashes Near-term locations and issues on which they can focus Long-term prioritized list of locations based on crash performance Apply for funding Respond to community Work with potential developers 14

15 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS LONG RANGE PLANNING SAN PABLO GENERAL AND SPECIFIC PLAN MULTIMODAL LEVEL OF SERVICE

16 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 16

17 General Plan - San Pablo, CA Adopted 2011 Dyett and Bhatia Prime consultant How to incorporate MMLOS 17

18 General Plan - San Pablo, CA Complete Street general policies Designation of circulation system Move away from motorist-only perceptions Incorporate more multimodal designations Source: Dyett and Bhatia 18

19 General Plan - San Pablo, CA Source: Dyett and Bhatia 19

20 General Plan - San Pablo, CA Prioritization of different street types by mode Source: Dyett and Bhatia 20

21 General Plan - San Pablo, CA More robust determination of improvements Source: Dyett and Bhatia 21

22 General Plan - San Pablo, CA MMLOS summary of factors for each mode 22

23 Specific Plan San Pablo, CA Adopted 2011 Guide to revitalize in a sustainable manner MMLOS analysis Existing 2030 No Project 2030 Specific Plan 23

24 Specific Plan San Pablo, CA MMLOS Analysis AM Peak Hour Corridor Section Scenario AM Peak-Hour Northbound Southbound Transit Transit Passenger Bicyclist Pedestrian Passenger Bicyclist Pedestrian Score LOS Score LOS Score LOS Score LOS Score LOS Score LOS North Existing 1.67 A 3.45 C 2.98 C 1.65 A 3.55 D 3.07 C 2030 No Project 2.11 B 3.49 C 3.08 C 1.78 A 3.61 D 3.19 C 2030 Specific Plan 2.07 B 3.18 C 2.84 C 1.76 A 3.29 C 3.04 C Central Existing 1.08 A 3.50 C 3.06 C 1.10 A 3.49 C 2.96 C 2030 No Project 1.22 A 3.54 D 3.15 C 1.27 A 3.55 D 3.07 C 2030 Specific Plan 1.20 A 3.48 C 3.03 C 1.23 A 2.95 C 2.83 C South Existing 0.91 A 4.13 D 2.87 C 0.80 A 3.60 D 2.83 C 2030 No Project 1.07 A 4.22 D 2.99 C 1.06 A 3.65 D 2.96 C 2030 Specific Plan 1.04 A 3.69 D 2.81 C 1.05 A 3.57 D 2.85 C Dowling Associates, Inc., Multi-Modal Level of Service analysis using CompleteStreetsLOS version 2.1.8, November 2010 Legend Worse than existing Worse than existing but better than 2030 No Project Better than existing 24

25 General and Specific Plan San Pablo, CA Summary MMLOS was used to: Establish of a multimodal roadway system Provide guidelines for multimodal improvements Assist development of the Specific Plan Compare the Specific Plan to General Plan MMLOS was particularly beneficial for: Quantifying trade-offs between modes Determining the reasonableness of LOS standards 25

26 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS TRAFFIC IMPACT STUDY IN PASADENA MULTIMODAL LEVEL OF SERVICE

27 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL

28 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA Worked with the City of Pasadena to analyze multimodal impacts of a redevelopment project 28

29 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA Impact studies generally only consider vehicle Pasadena finding it difficult to mitigate certain areas How might MMLOS provide another tool A recent development project was selected to test multimodal LOS 29

30 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA Project consisted of: 156 room hotel 38,000 ft 2 of dining 14,000 ft 2 of retail 103,000 ft 2 of office 8,000 ft 2 of bank Generated 4,900 daily trips 289 trips in the AM peak hour 488 trips in the PM peak hour 30

31 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA 31

32 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA Link results for Colorado Boulevard 32

33 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA 33

34 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA Transit Passenger Minimal effect, transit speed slightly slower (-) Pedestrian LOS slightly worse (-) Bicyclist More vehicles in lane nearest pedestrians (-) Slower auto speeds (+) Pedestrian More vehicles in lane nearest pedestrians (-) Slower auto speeds (+) All impacts minor, volume has only small effect on LOS for nonauto modes 34

35 Traffic Impact Study - Pasadena, CA Summary: Multimodal LOS not very sensitive to volume changes Better applications for a corridor MMLOS analysis: Project changes the number of access points Project proposes changes to roadway geometry Allows developer to quantify how other modes could be benefited if auto cannot be mitigated Changes in on-street parking Addition or subtraction of median island with ped refuge 35

36 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS TRAFFIC IMPACT STUDY IN COLCHESTER HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL

37 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 37

38 Traffic Impact Study - Colchester, VT Project Costco Warehouse and fuel sales expansion Opposition expressed concern with safety impacts of expansion Basic Question Would the project cause operational and safety impacts and what mitigations are necessary? Evaluation Applied HSM Part C crash prediction models to evaluate safety performance 38

39 Traffic Impact Study - Colchester, VT Reviewed crash history at main site access Rear End 39

40 Traffic Impact Study - Colchester, VT Applied HSM to predict intersection crash frequency at site access Type of Crash Predicted Crashes per Year Existing Conditions 11 Non-Mitigated with Costco 12 Mitigated with Costco 11 Change (Proposed vs. Existing) 0 Increased volumes lead to higher crash frequency Costco signal mitigations improve crash rate to below current rate Reconfigure one intersection leg Side-street change to split phasing from permitted left-turns 40

41 Traffic Impact Study - Colchester, VT Summary Provided DOT with quantified safety information in their development review process Defensible approval position Identify potential safety mitigations to address safety impacts Address opposition s concerns Eased the review process 41

42 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS ROADWAY DESIGN ALTERNATIVES INTERSECTION STUDY IN WASHINGTON COUNTY HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL

43 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 43

44 Intersection Study Washington County, MD Washington St (MD-144) & Western Maryland Pkwy (MD- 910) Existing two-way stop control intersection Study motivations Targeted family-wage employment area partially developed MD 144 programmed for corridor improvements Increased numbers of crashes Political pressure on DOT Potential countermeasures 4-Way Stop Control Traffic Signal Roundabout Study Intersection 44

45 Intersection Study Washington County, MD 45

46 Intersection Study Washington County, MD We applied the HSM to: Estimate long-term average crash performance for existing conditions Estimate changes in crashes for each countermeasure Compute the estimated change in crashes between existing conditions and the potential alternatives Compare the annual monetary benefit of change in crashes for each alternative 46

47 Intersection Study Washington County, MD Roundabout alternative estimated to provide highest crashes reduction Estimated Change in the Number of Crashes/Year Existing Two-Way Stop Four-Way Stop Traffic Signal Roundabout Injury/Fatal - N/A N/A 0.24 to 0.41 PDO - N/A N/A 0.49 to 0.50 Total to to to 0.91 Crash monetary benefits summary Roundabout alternative to have the highest monetary benefits Estimated Annual Monetary Benefit Based on Severity Existing Two- Way Stop Four-Way Stop Traffic Signal Roundabout Total per Year - $11,200 to $15,600 $10,500 to $13,900 $41,600 to $68,600 47

48 Intersection Study Washington County, MD Summary Relatively easy to incorporate crash analysis and augment traditional evaluations Helped mid-level DOT staff communicate more effectively with higher level staff Meaningful analysis results allowed decision makers to: Construct a temporary roundabout in the interim Accelerate funding for permanent roundabout construction Safety component highlighted the value of quantitatively assess safety 48

49 Intersection Study Washington County, MD Temporary Roundabout Example 49

50 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS ROADWAY DESIGN ALTERNATIVES CORRIDOR STUDY ON POWELL BOULEVARD IN PORTLAND HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL AND MULTIMODAL LOS

51 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 51

52 Powell Boulevard (US-26) Portland, OR Corridor considering cross section changes Access management study Pedestrian/bike facilities Rural roadway evolving to urbanized features Basic corridor capacity improvement Traffic operations are not clear differentiators High volume considerations Low volume considerations Supplemental performance measures Highway Safety Manual MMLOS 52

53 Powell Boulevard (US-26) Portland, OR Project A heavily used urban arterial in need of improvements Traditional traffic operations analysis did not find any clear winners among the alternatives Basic Question Which alternative will best serve future needs of the corridor? Evaluation Conducted Safety and MMLOS evaluations Quantified predicted safety trade-offs between concepts 53

54 Powell Boulevard (US-26) Portland, OR 54

55 Powell Boulevard (US-26) Portland, OR Originally had 22 specific alternatives Organized alternatives into 5 primary groups Tested alternatives using the HSM and MMLOS Group Description 1 Access Management and Intersection Modifications at 122 nd Ave 2 Different locations of left-turn lanes along SE Powell Blvd 3 Three-lane (TWLTL) roadway with different roadway element widths 4 Two-lane with raised median and left-turn pockets with different roadway elements 5 Existing conditions with different pedestrian features 55

56 Powell Boulevard (US-26) Portland, OR HSM analysis results isolated two groups of alternatives as more likely to reduce crashes Group 3 21% reduction; Group 4 19% to 27% reduction Alt Group Description 1 Access management and intersection modifications near 122 nd Ave % Crash Reduction 0% 1 2 Varying locations of left-turn lanes along US % 2 3 Three-lane (TWLTL) roadway with varying roadway element widths 4 Two-lane with raised median and left-turn pockets with different roadway elements 21% 19-27% 3 5 Existing conditions with different pedestrian features 0% 1 56

57 Powell Boulevard (US-26) Portland, OR MMLOS analysis help identify key trends in treatments Alt Group Bicycle Facility LOS Pedestrian Facility LOS Eastbound Westbound Eastbound Westbound Existing/No Build E E E E 1 E E D D 2 E E D D 3 E/F E/F D/E D 4 E/F E/F D/E D/E 5 E E D D Bicyclist - Sensitive to changes in roadway widths, given the traffic volumes and density of driveways Pedestrians - Sidewalks improve LOS to D Pedestrians Buffer strip could improve LOS to C 57

58 Powell Boulevard (US-26) Portland, OR Summary Allowed ODOT to consider quantified safety information in their selection process Comprehensive assessment of alternatives created a better understanding of tradeoffs Allowed ODOT to communicate to the public the benefit of doing more than sidewalks 58

59 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS ROADWAY DESIGN ALTERNATIVES CORRIDOR STUDY ON RUSSELL BOULEVARD IN MISSOULA HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL AND MULTIMODAL LOS

60 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 60

61 Russell Street Missoula, MT Project Context Update of traffic analysis for widening of 1.5-mile long corridor Public opposition to original corridor study Advocacy group formed specifically to fight this project Bike/pedestrian groups uneasy Opinion that safety was not sufficiently quantified in the initial study 61

62 Russell Street Missoula, MT Basic Question Which alternative best accommodates projected traffic volumes without compromising the safety of roadway users? Evaluation Conducted safety and MMLOS evaluations Quantified predicted safety trade-offs between concepts 62

63 Russell Street Missoula, MT College town One of five river crossings Connects to downtown 2/3 lane cross-section Important route for bicycle commuters Fragmented bicyclist and pedestrian facilities AADT of 20,000 to 25,000 63

64 Russell Street Missoula, MT Six design schemes Alt 1 is no build Alt 2 and 3 Roundabouts, divided Alt 4 Signals and widening Alt 5-R Hybrid of Alts 2, 3, 4 Option 6 Roundabouts, min widening 64

65 Russell Street Missoula, MT MMLOS of Alternative 4 Original Preferred Alternative 5 vehicle lanes Signals Sidewalks Bicycle lanes 65

66 Russell Street Missoula, MT MMLOS analysis of Alternative 4 Pedestrian LOS No Build LOS E Build LOS C Bicyclist LOS No Build LOS F Build LOS E Better improvement if access management were addressed 66

67 Russell Street Missoula, MT HSM analysis of roadway designs Good Performance Alternatives 2, 3 and 5R Roundabouts Divided roadway Fair Performance Alternative 4 and Options 6 & 7 Signals Roadway widening Poor Performance Alternative 1 No Build Condition 67

68 Russell Street Missoula, MT HSM analysis of roadway designs Key characteristics of well-performing alternatives Raised medians Roundabouts Left-turn pockets at intersections 68

69 Russell Street Missoula, MT HSM analysis of roadway designs Value of Analysis Quantified safety Assisted City and State with alternatives selection process Comprehensive assessment of alternatives Created a better understanding of tradeoffs Public outreach Communicated to the public and elected officials that the preferred alternative is an improvement over existing conditions Key element to achieving public acceptance 69

70 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS ROADWAY DESIGN ALTERNATIVES CORRIDOR STUDY ON BROWARD BOULEVARD IN FT. LAUDERDALE MULTIMODAL LOS

71 Portland, OR Missoula, MT Colchester, VT San Pablo, CA Washington County, MD Pasadena, CA Fort Lauderdale, FL 71

72 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Main thoroughfare Mostly commercial uses High number of pedestrian midblock crossings Frequent transit Bicyclists frequently on sidewalk 72

73 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL 73

74 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Existing Conditions Divided 6-Lane Facility Performed a MMLOS Analysis for WB Direction 74

75 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Existing Conditions 75

76 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Replace 1 through lane with transit only lane and bicycle lane Replace 1 through lane with parking and bicycle lane 76

77 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Motorist LOS WB Segment Auto LOS Segment From To Existing Road Diet % Change LOS 1 US-1 NE 3rd % E >> E 2 NE 3rd Andrews % E >> F 3 Andrews NW 1st % E >> E 4 NW 1st NW 5th % E >> F 5 NW 5th NW 7th % E >> F 6 NW 7th NW 9th % C >> E 7 NW 9th NW 11th % C >> F 8 NW 11th NW 14th % B >> F 9 NW 14th NW 15th % B >> F 10 NW 15th NW 18th % C >> F 77

78 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Transit Passenger LOS WB Segment Transit LOS Segment From To Existing Road Diet % Change LOS 1 US-1 NE 3rd % D >> C 2 NE 3rd Andrews % A >> A 3 Andrews NW 1st % A >> A 4 NW 1st NW 5th % A >> A 5 NW 5th NW 7th % B >> A 6 NW 7th NW 9th % B >> B 7 NW 9th NW 11th % A >> A 8 NW 11th NW 14th % B >> B 9 NW 14th NW 15th % D >> C 10 NW 15th NW 18th % A >> A 78

79 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Bicyclist LOS WB Segment Bike LOS Segment From To Existing Road Diet % Change LOS 1 US-1 NE 3rd % D >> D 2 NE 3rd Andrews % D >> D 3 Andrews NW 1st % D >> C 4 NW 1st NW 5th % D >> D 5 NW 5th NW 7th % D >> D 6 NW 7th NW 9th % D >> B 7 NW 9th NW 11th % D >> B 8 NW 11th NW 14th % D >> B 9 NW 14th NW 15th % D >> B 10 NW 15th NW 18th % D >> B 79

80 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Pedestrian LOS WB Segment Pedestrian LOS Segment From To Existing Road Diet % Change LOS 1 US-1 NE 3rd % D >> D 2 NE 3rd Andrews % D >> D 3 Andrews NW 1st % D >> D 4 NW 1st NW 5th % D >> D 5 NW 5th NW 7th % D >> D 6 NW 7th NW 9th % D >> D 7 NW 9th NW 11th % D >> D 8 NW 11th NW 14th % D >> E 9 NW 14th NW 15th % D >> E 10 NW 15th NW 18th % D >> E 80

81 Broward Boulevard Fort Lauderdale, FL Summary Eastern section showed positive improvements to ped, bike, and transit riders with only small impact on autos Methodology much better at quantitatively showing impacts to all four modes resulting from physical attributes such as: Cross section changes (Pedestrians/Bikes) Trees or other buffers (Pedestrians) Pavement condition (Bikes) 81

82 APPLICATIONS OF HSM AND MMLOS SUMMARY

83 Summary of MMLOS and HSM Applications Quantify trade-offs Design features and alternatives Comparisons among different roadway users Prioritize multimodal projects Address community values Assist and inform the public process Quantify quality of travel experience Quantify safety Implement Complete Streets legislation 83

84 Questions?