End of the motor car age: the evidence and what could follow

Transcription

1 1 of 18 End of the motor car age: the evidence and what could follow Kiron Chatterjee and Geoff Dudley Centre for Transport & Society UWE, Bristol

2 Gary Numan - sign of the times? Here in my car I feel safest of all I can lock all my doors It s the only way to live In cars I'm known for liking my cars, but when I saw the idea I was delighted to take part. The campaign has really made me think about using my car on little unnecessary journeys Cars, 1979 Scottish Government Go Greener travel and transport campaign, 2009

3 3 of 18 Outline Inspired by a review we did of transport in UK over last 50 years We noted that car travel growth had levelled off and wanted to better understand this and the implications for the future Not new data - synthesis and interpretation of existing data (DfT transport statistics, local authority data) 1. Aggregate picture 2. Variation among population 3. Public attitudes and the media 4. Local areas 5. Conclusions

4 1. Aggregate picture 4 of 18 Travel trend over last fifty years Source: TSGB 2008

5 1. Aggregate picture 5 of 18 and excluding car travel Source: TSGB 2008

6 1. Aggregate picture 6 of 18 Levelling off occurred before credit crunch Sources: TSGB 2008, ONS Population Trends 136

7 1. Aggregate picture 7 of 18 Traffic forecasts National road traffic forecasts going back to 1989 have all overestimated growth Latest 2007 forecasts scaled back the anticipated growth compared to 2000 Ten Year Plan and 2004 White Paper But still estimate 11% increase in car traffic to 2010 (from 2003), whereas only 2% growth has occurred up to 2008 Forecasts have over time become more sensitive to influencing factors (including transport policies) but there is further to go

8 2. Variation among population 8 of 18 Regions All regions experienced traffic growth of at least 10% between 1997 and 2007, except for London where 1.2% reduction (Regional Transport Statistics 2008) Reduction in car trips (since 2003) and increase in trips by all other modes recorded in London Travel Report 2007 Bus use has increased the most of all modes (mode share increase from 11% to 14% between 2001 and 2006/07) Use of surface rail, underground, DLR and Tramlink also increased Cycle traffic doubled between 2000 and 2006 after being static for ten years

9 2. Variation among population 9 of 18 Age groups Driving licence holding decreased for young adults 1992/ years 48% 38% years 75% 66% and proportion of trips as car driver decreased 1998/ years 26% 23% years 45% 42% Travel stable for other age groups, although those aged 60+ have increased bus use between 2005 and 2007 Sources: NTS 2007, NTS 2006, Focus on Personal Travel 2001

10 2. Variation among population 10 of 18 Travel purposes Commuting On average each person is making fewer commute journeys but longer journeys Car mode share decreased from 71% to 70% between 1997 and 2007 with rail share increasing from 6% to 8% Modest increase in working from home (e.g. NTS indicates an increase from 7% to 9% in those working at home at least once per month between 2002 and 2006) School travel Share of travel by car stabilised in last ten years (after longterm increase) despite distances to school increasing Shopping travel On average each person is making more journeys but shorter journeys Sources: TSGB 2008, NTS various years

11 3. Public attitudes & the media 11 of 18 Public attitudes Congestion - majority of public (~70%) thinks congestion is important for country, is getting worse and is high priority for action. However, a majority (~60%) do not find congestion a problem for themselves Policy support - almost unanimous support to improve PT and broad support for 20mph in residential areas and giving priority to peds, cyclists and PT in towns Using cars less - willingness to use PT if it was better increased from a quarter of public to half between 1988 and 2006 Public transport satisfaction - large increase in satisfaction with bus and rail services in recent years Sources: Lyons et al. (2008), RAC The Car in British Society (2009)

12 3. Public attitudes & the media 12 of 18 Media Simple content analysis of newspaper articles containing term car use in web versions of Guardian/Observer and Telegraph/Sunday Telegraph Counted total articles in two different years and number of articles related to subject of alternatives to car or reductions in car use Guardian Total Alternatives Telegraph Total Alternatives 9 20

13 3. Public attitudes & the media 13 of 18 Example articles Shared Ambition - Too many vehicles on the road isn't just an inner-city problem. Terry Slavin reports on the clubs that could help cut car use both in rural and urban areas - and make a big contribution to reducing carbon emissions (The Guardian, 2 April 2008) Millions of motorists to be hit by green parking taxes - Millions of motorists are facing punitive increases in the cost of parking their cars as councils across the country plan new green levies (Telegraph, 19 September 2008)

14 4. Local areas 14 of 18 Car traffic decreases outside London in last five years (ranked) Local transport authority Traffic change (%) 1. Reading Trafford Southampton Isle of Wight Portsmouth West Sussex Stockton-on-Tees Nottingham Birmingham Brighton and Hove -2.0 Source: Road Traffic Statistics for Local Authorities:

15 4. Local areas 15 of 18 Analysis of local authority travel trends Aim was to identify any significant changes occurring in local transport authority (LTA) areas in last few years Clustered sampling Two regions selected purposively - North-West and South- East One authority of each type selected randomly from each region Looked at performance against targets for travel behaviour indicators (from 2008 LTP progress reports) Traffic (area-wide traffic and peak traffic into urban centres) Public transport journeys Cycling traffic Travel to school mode share

16 4. Local areas 16 of 18 Findings for North-West LTA Car Traffic (03-08) Trend highlight Gtr Mtr -1.6% Journeys increased on buses, Metrolink and rail Cycling increased 7% (05-07) Lancs +4.3% Peak period traffic into urban centres decreased by 2% (03/04-07/08) Cycling increased 4% (03/04-07/08) Halton +1.1% Cycling increased over 50% (03/04-07/08) Policy actions Quality Bus Corridors, rail performance improvements Gtr Mcr Cycling Strategy Personal travel planning in Preston, South Ribble, Lancaster and Morecombe Lancaster Cycle Town Greenway network for walking and cycling

17 4. Local areas 17 of 18 Findings for South-East LTA Car Traffic (03-08) Trend highlight Surrey -0.9% Bus journeys increased 12% (04/05 to 07/08) Car mode share to school decreased 3% (06/07-07/08) Portsm th -2.9% Peak period traffic into centre decreased by 7% (04 to 07) Bus journeys increased 4% (03/04-07/08) Slough +1.6% Bus journeys increased 12% 03/04 to 06/07 Policy actions Eight QBPs and Fastway extension to Redhill Golden Boot Challenge, School Cycle Clubs Bus Punctuality Improvement Partnership BQP with First Berkshire

18 Conclusions 18 of 18 Car travel levelling off is not related to short-term economic situation but the result of a longer term trend It has been influenced by fuel costs and congestion and their influence is likely to continue Clear evidence from local areas that where policy action is taken there has been significant reduction in car use and increase in use of other modes Largest decrease in car travel and increase in use of alternatives in London where car restraint applied Witnessing a renaissance for public transport and cycling in urban areas of GB (public is generally receptive to this) how far this goes depends on level of investment in these modes and application of car restraint Greater use of slower modes could decrease total distance travelled