Reexamining SportsSentiment Hypothesis: Microeconomic Evidences from Borsa Istanbul


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1 Reexamining SporsSenimen Hypohesis: Microeconomic Evidences from Borsa Isanbul Ka Wai Terence Fung +, Ender Demir, Chi Keung Marco Lau And Kwok Ho Chan * Absrac This paper examines he impac of inernaional soccer maches on he Turkish sock marke using firmlevel and soredporfolio daa. Applying Edmans e al. (2007) esimaion mehod, we found a significan negaive loss effec. However, once using panel daa analysis as well as modeling spaial and emporal effecs explicily, he sporssenimen effec disappeared. The same conclusions could be made by replacing win (loss) dummies wih unexpeced win (loss) variables, removing Monday maches, dropping sporsrelaed firms, and soring porfolio reurns by marke capializaion and pas reurns. Hence, here is very limied microevidence o suppor he 'overreacion' hypohesis of individual invesors using Borsa Isanbul daa. However, we found evidence ha sporing evens have a larger impac on sock reurn volailiy for firms wih smaller marke capializaion and lower pas reurns. Keywords: Individualinvesor senimen, even sudy, marke efficiency, neuroeconomics, spors economics JEL Classificaion: D87, G14, L83 We are graeful o he helpful commens from he paricipans of he Easern Economics Associaion Conference (NY, 2013) and he Borsa Isanbul Finance and Economics Conference (Isanbul, 2013). This paper was previously circulaed under he ile "Spor Even Senimen and he Turkish Marke Reurn: a Firm Level and Sored Porfolio Analysis". + Corresponding auhor. Division of Business and Managemen, Beijing Normal Universiy, Hong Kong Bapis Universiy  Unied Inernaional College. B414, 28 Jinfeng Road, Tangjiawan, Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, P. R. China Faculy of Tourism, Isanbul Medeniye Universiy, Turkey Newcasle Business School, Norhumbria Universiy, U.K. * Beijing Normal Universiy, Hong Kong Bapis Universiy  Unied Inernaional College, China
2 1. Inroducion Economic evens, such as sock splis, mergers and acquisiions, are believed o have an impac on he value of financial asses 1. The psychological lieraure in he pas decade showed ha even economicallyneural evens, including weaher (Saunders, 1993; Hirshleifer and Shumway, 2003; Cao and Wei, 2005), he daylighsavings ime change (Kamsra e al. 2000), he lunar phases of he moon (Yuan e al. 2006), and air polluion (Levy and Yagil, 2011) sysemaically correlae o variaion of asse reurns. The basic raionale is ha hese economicallyneural evens have poenial repercussions on he 'mood' of an invesor, which ranslaes ino invesmen behavior ha canno be explained by he raionaliy principle. One srand of he evensudy lieraure focuses on he impac of sporing evens (especially inernaional game resuls) on asse prices. In fac, moivaed by psychological evidence, he relaionship beween sporing resuls (especially soccer) and sock marke reurns has been developed as an imporan research field in spors economics (Hir e al. 1992; Ashon e al. 2011; Kerr e al. 2005) 2. Edmans e al. (2007) is a seminal piece. Using an inernaional soccer sample comprising maches of 39 differen counries for he period from 1973 o 2004, he auhors found ha losses of naional soccer eams led o a srong negaive sock marke reacion and he loss effec increased wih he imporance of games. This sudy aims a reexamining he sporssenimen hypohesis using firmlevel daa from Borsa Isanbul  BIST (formerly known as Isanbul Sock Exchange  ISE). We explore how he performances of hree big soccer clubs of Turkey, namely Besikas (BJK), Fenerbahce (FB) and Galaasaray (GS), as well as he Turkish Naional Soccer eam affeced he BIST. To begin, why is Turkey an ineresing sudy? There are wo reasons. (1). In developed counries, here are ofen muliple sporing evens, such as fooball and baseball games, on he same day. They are equally popular. I is difficul o separae he effec of each sporing even. Turkey has no such problem as soccer is he mos imporan and dominan spor in he whole counry. I is generally believed ha he soccerspors senimen is srong. Games agains foreign rivals are considered as a figh of naional pride in Turkey. Following inernaional game wins, people celebrae he vicory wih nighlong fesiviies in he srees. (2). A naural experimen can be conduced o es he invesors' overreacion hypohesis. The foreign raders' shares in BIST in 1 See Eckbo (1983), and Asquih and Mullins (1986). 2 For more recen sudies, see also Berumen and Ceylan (2012), and Ehrmann and Jansen (2012).
3 erms of marke capializaion and ransacion volume are shown in Figure 1. Foreign invesors' involvemen in he BIST measured by marke capializaion rose from around 41% in 2000 o around 67% in Domesic individual invesors rade more frequenly han foreign invesors do. In 2010, domesic invesors held around 33% of marke share bu generaed 84% of rading volume. In conras, foreign invesors owning 67% of marke share generaed only 16% of rading volume in sock exchange. Noneheless, by boh measures, he involvemen of foreign invesors increased sharply in he second half of he 2000's. The recen srucural change of he BIST provides fodder for a naural experimen: if invesors spors senimen exiss, hen he impac of sporing evens (wheher a posiive win or a negaive loss) should be sronger in he firs half of he 2000's when he marke influence of domesic invesors was relaively high 3. We will spli he panel daa (in secion 4) ino wo subsample periods o conduc his naural experimen. Our sudy differs from he previous lieraure in four imporan aspecs. Firs, he scope of analysis is broader. We consider he impac of no only he soccer clubs bu also he Turkish naional eam. This is imporan as a naional eam may affec he mood of a larger populaion in a counry. Our daase covers only inernaional games agains foreign clubs and excludes domesic games. Inernaional games should affec he mood of he supporers of he club eam playing as well as he supporers of oher clubs in a similar way due o naional pride. Neverheless, he impac of domesic games can be dilued or eliminaed, as he performance of a eam will have an opposie effec on oher eams supporers (Eker e al. 2007). Second, mos of he early sudies are confined o he impac of sporing evens on marke indices. Lile research effor was direced oward a microlevel examinaion. There is a relaed sream of lieraure sudying he effec of spors resuls on he sock reurns of publiclyraded spors clubs 4. Palomino e al. (2009) found ha sock prices were sensiive o he game resuls of 16 lised Briish soccer clubs. There was a posiive average abnormal reurn of 53 basis poins following a win, and a loss led o a negaive average reurn of 28 basis poins. Scholens and Peensra (2009) documened a posiive (negaive) sock marke reacion afer a win (loss) for 8 lised soccer eams in 5 European counries during The reacion o losses was higher han wins indicaing an asymmeric marke reacion. Demir and Danis (2011) documened ha 3 Foreign invesors are no liable o reac o he resuls of a Turkish eam. 4 To our knowledge, Chang e al. (2012) is one of he few largescale firmlevel sudies, covering all firms lised in Nasdaq. However, heir analysis is resriced o domesic games.
4 here were negaive reacions o boh an expeced loss and an unexpeced loss for Turkish lised soccer clubs 5. One of he drawbacks of hese sudies is ha he parial effec of invesor senimen canno be separaed from ha of a change in expeced company profi. The successful clubs are able o generae more revenue; herefore, wins (losses) are expeced o increase (decrease) he fuure cash flows of clubs. A win also leads o more prize money, merchandise sales, or adverising income, hus driving up he sock price. A he same ime, i affecs invesors senimen. Hence, he performance of a eam affecs is sock price. Considering all hese, we esimae he sporssenimen effec using all 447 firms (no only soccer clubs) daa from he BIST 100, in a bid o provide microevidence for he invesors'senimen hypohesis. The hird aspec is relaed o mehodology. A common problem of sporseven lieraure is spurious correlaion. The procedure used by Edmans e al. (2007), sricly speaking, is a highdimensional (39 counries) mulivariae imeseries model. The second sep is Seemingly Unrelaed Regression (SUR), adjusing for clusering effec only due o curse of dimension. As well known in he lieraure, serial correlaion biases he sandard error downward, which may lead o incorrec inference; in his paricular case, acceping he exisence of sporssenimen effec. Kaplanski and Levy (2010) ackled he spurious correlaion by differen sraegies. For insance, an oulier year wih bad reurns in which he World Cup ook place was dropped. Trading days wih major evens ha occurred during he World Cup period were eliminaed. A JuneJuly monhly dummy was added o handle seasonal effec. Raher han manipulaing he daase and varying he independen variables, we ackle he spurious correlaion problem by casing he model in a purely imeseries seing. We propose a direc esimaion mehod. The BIST 100 firm reurns are sored by marke capializaion and pas reurns ino five porfolios. In his way, he emporal effec can be handled direcly. Fourh, Palomino e al. (2009) proposed an unexpeced mach resuls variable. The moive was ha surprising resuls should capure sronger spors senimen. We sugges a refined version of he Palomino e al. (2009) unexpeced win/loss variable. Our resuls indicae weak evidence of sporseven senimen. We demonsrae ha sporing evens have no power o explain financial asse reurns. Noneheless, sporing evens can accoun for volailiy of sored porfolio reurns. The res of he paper proceeds as follows. The nex secion describes he daa se. Secion hree 5 See also Sadmann (2006), Boido and Fasano (2007), Zuber e al. (2005), and Brown and Harzell (2001).
5 repors he findings of firmlevel analysis. Secion 4 presens he sored porfolio analysis resuls followed by a discussion in secion five. 2. Daa The game resuls are colleced from hey are crosschecked from various sources, for example he official websie of he Turkish Fooball Federaion 6. The firs (Besikas vs. Hapoel Haifa) and las (Besikas vs. Dynamo Kyiv) mach ook place on 28 July, 1999 and 24 February, 2011, respecively. The beingodds raios for he games prior o April, 2004 are colleced from The daa aferward are colleced from Iniially, here are 430 inernaional eam and naional maches over he sample period. I is generally believed ha only imporan evens ha capure public aenion can have repercussions in he sock markes. Some screening procedure has o be implemened. We dropped he privae games and UEFA Euro Qualifying maches, winding up wih 323 maches. Mos of he European Cup games were played on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday evenings; however, games of he naional eam were more homogenously disribued during he week. The effec of a game resul is observed on he firs rading day jus afer he game. Thus, if a mach is played on he weekend, he effec will be observed on Monday. Likewise, he impac of weekday games is observed on he nex rading day. The impac of a paricular game canno be separaed if here are muliple games on he same day. One possible soluion is deleing all sporing evens of a rading day if here is more han one game (Demir e al. 2014). However, his can resul in a considerable loss of observaions. We adop a differen sraegy. On any rading day wih muliple maches, if he game resuls are he same, hey are combined as one single mach wih one single resul. Oherwise, all maches are deleed 7. Afer applying hese selecion crieria, 278 maches remain. The sporing evens are 2006 FIFA World Cup qualificaion, 2010 FIFA World Cup qualificaion, 2002 FIFA World Cup, Champions League, Euro 2000, Euro 2008, UEFA, and FIFA Confederaion Cup. Among he 6 See 7 An addiional crierion can be adoped o eliminae muliplegame effec. Firs, a cuoff ime is se (for insance, 9 a.m.). If a mach kicks off a 10 a.m., i will be reaed as a mach on he nex rading day. Le's say rading day is mached wih sporing even on day 1; and suppose ha day has anoher sporing even played during is rading hour (of course, his sporing even will be mached wih rading day +1). Then, he pair of rading day and sporing even on day 1 will be deleed, because he reurn on day will be affeced no only by he sporing even on day 1, bu also one on day.
6 278 maches, here were 45 naional eam maches, 66 for FB, 74 for BJK and 93 for GS. The overall win, draw and loss proporions are 43.5%, 20.5% and 36%, respecively. We collec daily sock prices (closing) of 447 Turkish firms lised a Borsa Isanbul from he Wharon Research Daa Services (WRDS) 8, o compue he daily reurns (dividend adjused). The sample period is from July 1, 1999 o June 30, Disconinuous rading (examples: a company is delised or sops rading for a cerain period such as afer a long holiday) will render he daily reurns meaningless. Various mehods can be used o deal wih his problem. One can drop observaions when hey are oo far apar or keep he longes rading sreak in he sample. The former approach is adoped in his sudy. To minimize he loss of observaions, we ake he approach ha if wo rading days are more han 10 days apar, he observaion will be deleed. The BIST100 index source is he Borsa Isanbul websie 9. In secion four, sored porfolios by marke capializaion (he produc of sock price and number of shares ousanding) and pas reurns (he moving average of he las 22 rading days) will be consruced by he daily firm reurns. To be specific, on each rading day, he firms are sored by marke capializaion or pas reurns and spli ino quiniles. Then, a valueweighed reurn will be compued for each quinile. The process is repeaed every day and a porfolio will be formed 10. Conrolling for he oulier effec is necessary in he case of Turkey. Turkey wen hrough economic crises in 1994, 2001, and 2008, afer opening up is capial accoun in 1989 (Rodrik, 2012). The 1994 and 2001 crises were severe and lierally dramaic. Alhough Turkey experienced srong and sable expansion unil 2007, he 2008 crisis inerruped he long expansion. There are many ways o deal wih ouliers. One mehod is simply dropping he exreme values. The second approach is creaing a dummy for he exreme rading days 11. The firs approach is adoped in his sudy. To minimize he loss of observaions, we exclude he highes and lowes (in erms of reurn) five rading days from he sample. An addiional advanage is ha, by dropping he exreme values, convergence will be improved for he GARCHVariance and mulivariae GARCH models examined in secion four. 8 hps://wrdsweb.wharon.upenn.edu/wrds/ 9 hp:// 10 We inended o consruc a porfolio by pas urnover, defined as daily rading volume (closing)/shares ousanding. However, here are many missing values of daily rading volume. 11 For insance, Demir e al (2014), Kaplanski, and Levy (2010) generae wo dummies for en rading days wih highes (lowes) reurns.
7 3. MicroLevel Analysis The firs par of our analysis esimaes he sporsenimen effec using Turkish firmlevel daa by Edmans e al. (2007) procedure. The procedure consiss of wo seps. There were 39 counries in heir sample. The firs equaion involves he esimaion of major marke index reurns of each counry using marke facors as conrol (for insance, a local marke index and a world marke index). The residuals were hen colleced for he second sep 12 which is essenially SUR adjusing for crosssecional clusering effec. The key independen variables are win and loss dummies of games. One of he problems is ha he second sep neglecs counryspecific facors (which can be unobservable) and emporal persisence Edmans e al. (2007) Approach This secion is devoed o exploring he sporssenimen effec wih firmlevel daa from BIST100 by using Edmans e al. (2007) esimaion sraegy. The null hypohesis is ha he sock reurn will no be affeced by economicneural evens like inernaional sporingeven resuls and no exploiable abnormal profis exis assuming ha individual invesors are raional such ha heir buying and selling posiions are based only on fundamenals. The alernaive hypohesis is ha game resuls maer and he sock reurn variaion reflecs overreacion of individual invesors. Le R i be he coninuously compounded posdividend daily reurn of an individual sock i on day ; he firs sep is o esimae he following equaion: R i, = ai i,1ri, 1 i,2w i,3h i,4rm, i,5rm, 1 i, (1) where i is an index of firms and R m, is he coninuously compounded daily BIST on day. We include dummy variables for each day of he week o conrol for he day of he week effec (Berumen e al. 2007; Ke e al. 2007; Aydogan and Booh, 2003). W = {W 1, W 2, W 3, W 4 } are dummy variables for he days of he week: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respecively. H = {H 1, H 2, H 3, H 4, H 5 } are dummy variables for days for which he previous 1 hrough 5 days are nonweekend holidays. The lagged sock reurn R i 1 is included in he specificaion (1) o accoun for firsorder auocorrelaion. The BIST 100 reurn is also included o conrol for he correlaion beween individual sock reurns and he marke index porfolio 12 This is a procedure o purge he sysemaic marke risk. In a purely emporal seing, demeaned or differenced reurns may deliver similar resuls.
8 reurn aribued o sysemaic risk ha is well documened in he lieraure 13. For each company i, equaion (1) is esimaed by OLS. In he second sage, we exrac he esimaed residuals from equaion (1) which represen abnormal reurns ha should be he resuls from fooballsenimen effecs. Insead of using only naional eam maches like Edmans e al. (2007), we collec daa of Turkish major soccer eams playing foreign rivals, which significanly increases he effecive sample size. The effecs of he oucome of inernaional soccer maches on individual sock reurns can be esimaed using he following regression model: ˆ i, = b bwin b LOSS b Naional b FB b BJK b BJK WIN b GS WIN b FB LOSS b BJK LOSS b GS LOSS b GS b FB WIN i, (2) where i, ˆ is he residual from regression (1); WIN (win) and LOSS (loss) are game resul dummies 14 ; Naional denoes a mach beween wo naional eams; FB, GS, and BJK are eam dummies represening Fenerbahce, Galaasaray, and Besikas. To conrol for individualeam senimen, six win and loss ineracion erms are added o he model. The sandard error in equaion (2) is adjused for heeroskedasiciy. Hypohesis 1: The sporssenimen effec exiss if he win coefficien is significanly posiive and/or he loss coefficien is significanly negaive. As argued in secion 1, he foreigninvesor raio has increased significanly since If he sporssenimen hypohesis is rue, he measured sporssenimen effec should be sronger (no maer posiive win or negaive loss effec) in he pre2006 period. Hypohesis 2: Domesic invesors have sronger reacions o a naional eam win or loss: he sporssenimen effec is sronger in he pre2006 period. Table 1 repors he Edmans e al. (2007) syle resuls. Our analysis is based on hree subsample periods. The righhand side panel, middle panel, and lefhand side panel repor he esimaes for he whole sample (7/1/19996/30/2011), pre2006 (7/1/ /31/2005), and pos period (1/1/20066/30/2011), respecively. There are 158 maches in he pre2006 period 13 Insead of a worldmarke index, he Dow Jones Index was used as an inernaionalmarke effec in he preliminary analysis. 14 Sricly speaking, he ime index should be 1 as explained in secion 2. We follow he convenion of he lieraure (Edmans e al. 2007; Kaplanski and Levy, 2010) o use ime.
9 and 120 in he pos2006 period. The general findings are in line wih he exising lieraure on spors senimen and sock marke reurn. The esimaed coefficien of loss is negaive and saisically significan a he 1% level and 5% level for he whole sample period and preperiod respecively, consisen wih he Edmans e al. (2007) findings. While he esimaed coefficien on he lossdummy variable is basis poins for he whole period and basis poins for he pre2006 period, he loss effec disappears in he pos2006 period 15 which is evidence supporing he sporssenimen hypohesis. The average loss effec of fooball senimen on he sock marke as found in Edmans e al. (2007) ranges from 20 basis poins o 50 basis poins, depending on games a differen levels of imporance. Therefore, we can conclude ha he fooball mood in Turkey is sronger han he world s average, and he marke efficiency is weaker han ha of developed markes. Alhough he naional eam dummy is no significan, here is evidence of eam effec. For insance, a win of Fenerbahce and Galaasaray over foreign rivals, and a loss of Galaasaray are all significan a 10%. As a resul, we can conclude ha he loss effec is overwhelming in he Turkish sock marke 16 following he Edmans e al. (2007) procedure Panel Daa Analysis There are wo poenial drawbacks of he esimaion sraegy adoped in he previous subsecion. (1) The emporal dependence is no adjused in he second sep which may possibly render he sandard error incorrec. (2) There are 447 firms in our sample; he idiosyncraic facors are no modeled a all. Since he number of crosssecions is larger han ha of Edmans e al. (2007) (39 counries), a naural exension is paneldaa analysis, by which boh spaial and emporal effecs are modeled. The imporance of conrolling correlaed residuals has been well explained in Peersen (2009). The auhor found ha 42% of finance papers ha had been published by ha ime did no adjus he sandard errors for possible dependence in he residuals, resuling in eiher an overesimae or underesimae of he sandard errors of he esimaed coefficiens, and hence he corresponding confidence inervals. Peersen (2009), by simulaion, demonsraed ha esimaes ha are robus in he form of dependence in he daa produce unbiased sandard errors and correc confidence inervals. 15 On he oher hand, his may imply ha marke efficiency has been improved over ime. 16 The low coefficien of variaion can be indicaors of imporan firmspecific effecs, jusifying he randomeffec approach in secion 4.2.
10 In he following analysis, we will consider Random Effec (RE) correcing he sandard error by he NeweyWes mehod and he Fixed Effec (FE) analysis using Driscoll and Kraay (1998) sandard errors. The error srucure is assumed heeroskedasic, auocorrelaed up o wo lags and possibly correlaed beween he firms (panels). The Driscoll and Kraay (1998) correcion mehod is a nonparameric echnique of esimaing sandard error ha places no resricion on he limiing behavior of he number of panels. I is suiable for our use since i can handle boh balanced and unbalanced panels wih missing values 17. Spaial and emporal dependence may arise in our sudy because of he complex paerns of muual dependence beween lised companies a a paricular ime. These unobservable common facors may cause biased and inefficien esimaes when we use he convenional covariance marix esimaion echnique. Equaion (2) is modified as: ˆ i, = b BJK 8 (3) c bwin i 1 WIN b LOSS b Naional b GS WIN b 10 b FB b BJK 4 FB LOSS b BJK where c i is he firm effec. Wrie equaion (3) in a vecor form: where boh and x i, are (K+1) 1 vecor. Le 11 ˆ 5 ' i, = x i, i, ˆ ' h i, = xi, i, Define Ŝ T as he NeweyWes adjusmen marix: Sˆ T m( T ) = ˆ w( j, m) ˆ ˆ 0 j=1 b GS b FB WIN 6 LOSS b GS LOSS j ' j 12 7 i, ˆ j = T ˆ ( ˆ) ˆ h ' h j = j 1 ( ˆ) where m (T ) is he lag lengh of auocorrelaion (wo, in his case), w ( j, m) is he modified Barle weigh and h ˆ ( ˆ ) he crosssecional average of h ( ˆ ). Driscoll and Kraay (1998) sandard error is simply he square roo of he diagonal elemens of he following asympoic (robus) covariance marix: where X is he sack of x i, for Var ( ˆ) ˆ ˆ i, ' ' 1 = ( X X ) ST ( X X ) (4) i = 1,..., N and = 1,..., T. 17 The rading of some sock is no coninuous, resuling in an unbalanced panel.
11 Table 2 shows he esimaed panel daa resuls for he whole sample (7/1/19996/30/2011), pre2006 period (7/1/ /31/2005), and pos2006 period (1/1/20066/30/2011), respecively. The coefficiens are he same using NeweyWes since his mehod aims a compuing correc sandard errors. The resuls show weak evidence of sporssenimen effec. Alhough he esimaed coefficien of loss is negaive, i is only saisically significan a 10% level for he whole sample period using he NeweyWes sandard errors, which are robus o auocorrelaion and heeroskedasiciy. Moreover, no naional eam or soccer club effec is deeced. The win coefficien of Galaasaray is highly significan, bu he sign (negaive win) is incorrec. However, he resuls from Table 2 show ha neiher loss effec nor win effec is significan afer using robus sandard errors as proposed by Driscoll and Kraay (1998). We can conclude ha neiher loss effec nor win effec is significan. Only a mild bu inconsisen Galaasaray eam effec is found Robusness Tes There is reason o believe ha he sporssenimen effec is sronger under differen circumsances. For insance, he invesors' senimen should weaken over ime. To be specific, he impac of a Friday mach will be dilued on he following Monday rendering i weaker han weekday game resuls. We propose wo ways o deal wih he weekenddiluion effec: (1) Assume ha here is no mach on Monday, reaing i as a regular rading day wihou any mach. (2) Drop all Monday observaions. Our analysis suggesed ha hese wo crieria gave similar resuls. We, herefore, repor he resuls of he former scenario. In addiion, four soccer eams and ESEM SPOR GIYIM (which sells spor apparel) are excluded. As argued in secion one, sporing evens would affec he earnings of sporsrelaed firms, which are no relaed o spors senimen. Table 3 repors he resuls of excluding Monday maches and soccerrelaed firms for he whole sample period. Evidenly, he loss effec is sronger when concenraing on weekday soccer maches using he Edmans e al. (2007) mehodology. When compared o he findings of Table 1, he loss effec increases by 50 basis poins. Wihou accouning for crosssecional and emporal dependence, he evidence lends suppor o he sporssenimen hypohesis. In fac, he loss coefficien is sill significan a one percen using NeweyWes correcion error. However, column six of Table 3 indicaes ha he negaive sporssenimen hypohesis is rejeced using fixedeffec model. Tha said, we found a posiive win effec for Galaasaray How abou unexpeced mach resuls? Palomino e al. (2009) proposed an alernaive mehod. They argued ha an 'unexpeced' win (loss) should have a larger impac on financial asse reurns. The odds raio released from
12 being companies can summarize he opinion of bookmakers. There is a fixedodds being marke in Turkey where he odds are posed several days before he games and hey are rarely alered by bookmakers afer he announcemen. For example, on April 25, 2010, Galaasaray played a home agains Bursaspor in he Turkish Super League. The odds were 1.55 for a home win, 3.4 for a draw, and 3.8 for an away win. If a person bes 1 euro on a home win and Galaasaray defeas he opponen, he will win 1.55 euro. If he resul is a draw or an away eam win, he loses 1 euro. Le, i = w, d l be he bookmakers perceived probabiliy of he oucomes (win, draw i, and loss), which is he inverse of odds. To conver perceived probabiliies o implied probabiliies of a win, we normalize he former by dividing each odd by he sum: w w = The normalized probabiliy of loss ( ) is defined likewise. Using l w d l w and l and he difference of hese wo, Palomino e al. (2009) specified four dummy variables, namely srongly expeced o win, weakly expeced o win, srongly expeced o lose and weakly expeced o lose. For insance, if he coefficien of srongly expeced o win is posiive and significan, he auhors conend ha i is evidence of 'overreacion'. Noneheless, an expeced oucome can hardly change he mood of individual invesors. The noion is similar o he moneary economics hypohesis ha only an unexpeced policy shock can have an impac on real variables (King and Plosser, 1984; Alig e al. 2004; Clarida e al. 2002). Therefore, we deviae from Palomino e al. (2009) by generaing an 'unexpeced win' and 'unexpeced loss' variable. The average implied winloss probabiliy differences (  ) is A mach is defined as an 'expeced win' if he acual winloss probabiliy difference is larger han he average. Then an 'unexpeced loss' ( Unexp ecedloss w l ) is defined as an ineracion erm of 'expeced win' and 'acual loss'. Similarly, 'unexpeced win' is muliplying 'expeced loss' by 'acual win'. The boom line is ha only a surprising oucome would change invesors' moods. We proceed o esimae he following equaion he same way as in secion 3.2: ˆ i, = ci b1unexp ecedwin b2unexp 6 b GS LOSS 12 7 i, 8 ecedloss b Naional b FB b BJK b GS b FB WIN b BJK WIN b GS WIN b FB LOSS b BJK LOSS (4)
13 Hypohesis 3: The coefficiens of unexpeced win and/or unexpeced loss should be significanly posiive and negaive, respecively. Moreover, he size should be bigger han hose of equaion (2). The resuls are repored in Table 4. Wheher using NeweyWes or Driscoll and Kraay (1998) correcion error, he unexpeced oucomes have no impac on firm excess reurns in a panel seing where boh spaial and emporal effecs are adjused. The above analysis suggess ha here is no microevidence of sporssenimen or individual invesoroverreacion effec once boh spaial and emporal correlaions are conrolled. As suggesed by Peersen (2009), conrolling for firmspecific effec is criical for financialpanel daa. Evidenly, he sporssenimen effec is nonexisen by Driscoll and Kraay (1998). One of he possibiliies is missing relevan economic variables. I is generally acceped ha macroeconomic facors consiue a sysemaic risk ha is fundamenal o asse pricing. Unforunaely, he macroeconomic variables are unobservable for highfrequency daa. Our argumen in secions will be sronger if we can demonsrae he disappearance of he negaiveloss effec using he original Edmans e al. (2007) daa 18. We requesed he daa from he auhors; unforunaely, he original daase is no longer available. The nex secion is devoed o mulivariae imeseries models in which wo purposes can be achieved: (1) We will demonsrae he exisence (or nonexisence) of sporssenimen effec in a purely imeseries seing; (2) We will es several ineresing hypoheses relaed o invesor irraionaliy. 4. Sored Porfolio Analysis In his secion, he esimaion is done in a purely imeseries seing in order o ackle he possible spurious correlaion problem. The esimaion mehod in Edmans e al. (2007) is a high dimensional (39 counries) mulivariae imeseries model. The curse of dimensionaliy is solved in his paper by caegorizing firm reurns ino several porfolios. Specifically, he 447 BIST 100 firm reurns are sored ino five porfolios. Two ses of resuls are esimaed using marke capializaion and pas reurns as soring crieria. Wih five porfolios, he esimaion can handle he emporal effec (serial correlaion) of he daa direcly. There are wo advanages using sored porfolios. Firs, he Capial Asse Pricing Model (CAPM) performs poorly using firm daa; bu 18 A suggesion from an anonymous referee.
14 he performance improves significanly when using sored porfolios. I is possible ha he sporssenimen or individual invesoroverreacion effec can be deeced in sored porfolios for which idiosyncraic facors are conrolled. Second, a couple of esable hypoheses can be proposed o verify he sporssenimen effecs Impac on he Mean Equaion The crieria used for soring he firmlevel daa ino five porfolios are marke capializaion and pas reurns. Marke capializaion is defined as he produc of he sock price and he number of shares ousanding. Pas reurns are consruced using he moving average of he daily firm reurns of he las 22 rading days. Specifically, he firms are sored by reurns on each rading day and we spli hem ino quiniles. A valueweighed porfolio reurn will be compued for each quinile by hese wo crieria. The process is hen repeaed every day and a porfolio is formed. To avoid he excess influence of ouliers, he smalles and highes five rading days are dropped. The series are demeaned o ensure saionariy 19. Afer soring he firmlevel daa ino five porfolios, resuls are esimaed by GARCH (1, 1) model. The BIST 100 daily and laggedporfolio reurns are used as a proxy for marke facors. The win and loss dummy variables are indicaors of sporssenimen effec. Club dummies are used o conrol for eam effec. The implicaions are he same under differen sporsselecion crieria. Hypohesis 4: Wih firmlevel daa sored ino five porfolios according o marke capializaion, if he sporssenimen effec ruly exiss, smaller firms (firs quinile) should have a larger sporssenimen effec. The reason behind his is ha more local, individual invesors should be involved in he sock rading for small firms raher han large firms (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). Table 5a summarizes he resuls of he sored porfolio by marke capializaion. The firs quinile denoes he reurn of he porfolio wih he smalles marke size; he fifh quinile is he highes. 19 We ried o reinforce our argumens by differen soring crieria. One opion is pas urnover raio. However, he analysis is infeasible due o excessive missing values. We also ried soring by 22day moving average of pas variance. No significan resul was found.
15 Table 5a shows ha he coefficiens for BIST100 daily and laggedporfolio reurns are significan across all five porfolios consisen wih he CAPM. The focus of his paper is he effec of sporing evens on he reurns 20. We found ha wih he GARCH model, he effec of sporing evens (win or loss effec) is mosly insignifican. The win/loss effec is only significan for fourh quinile bu he win effec is a negaive one. There is no much difference in sporssenimen effec beween small firms and large firms since he sporssenimen effec is no significan for mos firms. The ARCH and GARCH coefficiens are all significan which is evidence of srong sored porfolio volailiy persisence. To check robusness, we sor he porfolios ino quarers. As shown in Table 5b, he findings remain he same; inernaional soccer maches have no impac on mean reurns of porfolios sored by marke capializaion. Hence, here is no evidence for hypohesis 4. The above analysis ignores correlaion across porfolios, which may render he sandard error inappropriae. To conrol for his, we use mulivariae VAR(1)GARCH (0,1) wih Consan Condiional Correlaion (CCC) proposed by Bollerslev (1990), which is a mulivariae GARCH model wih imevarying condiional variances and covariance bu consan condiional correlaions. Since convergence is difficul o achieve wih all five porfolios, we only use he smalles and highes porfolios (1s and 5h quiniles). The esimaed sysem of equaions is: R1, = 1,0 1,1WIN 1,2 LOSS 1,3FB 1,4BJK 1,5GS 1,6 R1, 1 1,7 R5, 1 1, R5, = 5,0 5,1WIN 5,2LOSS 5,3FB 5,4BJK 5,5GS 5,6R1, R (5) [ 1, 5, 1 where, ]' ; / F ~ N(0, ) For simpliciy, we assume ha he ARCH marix is diagonal. As shown in Table 5c, all he ARCH and GARCH coefficiens are significan, indicaing srong persisence effec. The esimaed cross correlaion is indicaing a posiive relaion beween hese porfolios. However, he win and loss coefficiens are no significan for eiher porfolio. No eam effec is deeced neiher. Nex, we sored he firmlevel daa ino five porfolios according o pas reurns (22day moving average) of invesors. I is expeced ha firms wih higher pas reurns (fifh quinile) are more aracive o small individual invesors han firms wih smaller pas reurns (1s quinile). 1 5,7 5, 1 5, 20 In his se of analyses, he ineracion erms of win/loss wih he eam are no included o improve he convergence propery of GARCH model.
16 Hypohesis 5: Wih firmlevel daa sored ino five porfolios according o he moving average of 22day pas reurns, if he sporssenimen effec ruly exiss, firms wih high profi should have larger sporssenimen effec. Thus, he fifh quinile should have a larger sporssenimen effec (Chang e al., 2012). However, resuls from GARCH (1, 1) model (as shown in Table 6a) show very weak evidence in suppor of significan sporssenimen effec. Only he loss coefficien of he 5h quinile is significan. Soring he porfolios ino quarile (Table 6b) gives he same resul. Similarly, using he mulivariae GARCH, Table 6c shows mosly insignifican sporssenimen effec Impac on he Variance Equaion Sporing evens may no affec he mean reurns. Is i possible ha variance of sored porfolio reurns is affeced by inernaional soccer mach resuls? A variance equaion is augmened o equaion (3). Our firs finding is ha he impac of sporing evens on sock reurn variance is sronger for small firms. From Table 5a, he win effec is highes for he second quinile (2.978) and virually zero for large firms. Similarly, he loss coefficien (3.24) of he variance equaion is only significan for he second quinile. Noe ha some of he parameers are zero, which is he value ha acually maximizes he loglikelihood 21. The decreasing paern of variance effec is more obvious when we sor he porfolios ino quariles, as indicaed in Table 5b. Small firms have he highes loss effec (2.0) and here is no impac on firms wih he larges capializaion. Our second finding is ha when firms are sored ino five porfolios according o moving average of 22day pas reurns, firms wih lower profi (firs quinile) end o have larger variance afer a mach. From Table 6a, he win coefficien is as high as 2.78 for he firs quinile, declining gradually o of he forh quinile and evenually disappearing for he fifh quinile. There is no loss effec. The resul remains he same when we sor he firms ino four porfolios as shown in Table 6b. The win (loss) variables of Tables 5b and 6b are replaced by he unexpeced win (unexpeced loss) as a final check of robusness. The findings of Tables 7a and 7b are consisen 21 We resric he variance equaion parameers o some fixed values and see wha effec i has on he loglikelihood. The loglikelihood for he firs quinile is acually a maximum when he parameer on loss is resriced o zero. When i is resriced o some negaive numbers, hey lead o opimizaion failures wih infeasible iniial values; when i is resriced o small posiive numbers, hey lead o smaller loglikelihood han when resriced o zero. So he esimae and sandard error on he variance equaion parameer are boh zero.
17 wih hose of Tables 5b and 6b ha sporing evens have no impac on he mean equaion bu have a significan effec on he variance equaion. 5. Discussion This sudy reexamines he sporssenimen and invesoroverreacion hypoheses in he evensudy lieraure. Using 447 firm daa from Borsa Isanbul from July 1, 1999June 30, 2011, we do no find evidence for he null hypohesis once spaial and emporal effecs are modeled explicily. Insead of he convenional win/loss variables, wo surprise variables are generaed o es he overreacion hypohesis, which is rejeced overwhelmingly under differen crieria. We proceed o invesigae he null hypohesis by sored porfolios in a purely imeseries seing. Economicneural evens like inernaional soccer maches sill have no impac on firm reurn. However, we find evidence ha sporing evens have a significan impac on he variances of firms wih smaller marke capializaion and lower pas reurns. There are a few limiaions of his paper. For he esimaion of equaions (1) and (2), Edmans e al. (2007) and Kaplanski and Levy (2010) normalize he sock marke reurns by GARCH(1,1) volailiy because he esimaes will be biased downward if he sock reurns exhibi imevarying volailiies. Firs, a GARCH (1, 1) model is esimaed using equaions (1) and (2). Then, he esimaed condiional volailiies will be used o normalize he sock reurns o have zero mean and sandardized variance. No such adjusmen is made in his paper. Firs, achieving convergence of equaion (1) for all 447 firms simulaneously is almos impossible. Second, he emporal variaion has been modeled by he NeweyWes, and Driscoll and Kraay (1998) correcion error. The choice of sporing even is always subjec o conroversy. Afer all, here is no objecive measure of mach imporance. For insance, he FIFA World Cup Qualifying games are no imporan o Germany or Ialy; i can be big news if i is a win for China. A popular sraegy is o es robusness by using differen sporing even choices. As a robusness es, we decided o furher screen ou he sample. A sricer crierion is adoped in he preliminary analysis. The FIFA Confederaion Cup and UEFA maches are dropped 22. Noneheless, he conclusions remain he same. 22 The resuls were repored in he earlier version of his paper.
18 A minor concern is he esimaion error carried over from equaion (1) o equaion (2), i.e., he measuremen error of residuals from equaion (1). As well documened in he lieraure, unless he measuremen error is correlaed o he explanaory variables, OLS is asympoically valid under appropriae homoskedasiciy assumpions. I is possible ha omied sysemaic facors can be correlaed o marke reurn in equaion (1). Wih ha said, he consequence is only large asympoic variance, which has been adjused in he secondsep esimaion.
19 References Ashon, J.K., Gerrard, B., and Hudson, R., Do naional soccer resuls really impac on he sock marke? Applied Economics, 43(26), pp Asquih, P. and Mullins, D., Equiy Issues and Offering Diluion. Journal of Financial Economics, 15(12), pp Alig, D., Chriiano, J., Eichenbaum, M., Linde, J., Firm Specific Capial, Nominal Rigidiies, and he Business Cycle. Mimeo, Norhwesern Universiy. Aydogan, K. and Booh, G.G., Calendar anomalies in he Turkish foreign exchange markes. Applied Financial Economics, 13(5), pp Baker, M. and Wurgler, J., Invesor Senimen and he Crosssecion of Sock Reurns. Journal of Finance, 61, pp Berumen, H. and Ceylan, N.B., Effecs of soccer on sock markes: The reurn volailiy Relaionship. The Social Science Journal, 49(3), pp Berumen, H., Coskun, M.N., and Sahin, A., Day of he week effec on foreign exchange marke volailiy: Evidence from Turkey. Research in Inernaional Business and Finance, 21(1), pp Boido, C., and A. Fasano Fooball and Mood in Ialian Sock Exchange. The Icfai Journal of Behavioral Finance, 4(4), pp Bollerslev, T., Modeling he Coherence in Shorrun Nominal Exchange Raes: A Mulivariae Generalized ARCH Model. The Review of Economics and Saisics, 72 (3), pp Brown, G. and Harzell, J Marke reacion o public informaion: The aypical case of he Boson Celics, Journal of Financial Economics, 60(23), pp Cao, M. and Wei, J., Sock marke reurns: A noe on emperaure anomaly. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(6), Chang, S.C., Chen, S.S., Chou, R.K., and LIn, Y.H., Local Spors Senimen and Reurns of Locally Headquarered Socks: A FirmLevel Analysis. Journal of Empirical Finance, 19(3), pp Clarida, R., Gali, J., Gerler, M., A Simplified Framework for Inernaional Moneary Policy Analysis. Journal of Moneary Economics, 49, pp
20 Demir, E. and Danis, H The Effec of Performance of Soccer Clubs on Their Sock Prices: Evidence from Turkey. Emerging Markes Finance and Trade, 47(04S4), pp Demir, E., Lau, C.K.M, and Fung, K.W.T, The Effec of Inernaional Soccer Games On Turkish Lira/Euro & Turkish Lira/Us Dollar. MPRA Working paper. Driscoll, J.C. and Kraay, A.C., Consisen Covariance Marix Esimaion wih Spaially Dependen Panel Daa. Review of Economics and Saisics, 80(4), pp Eckbo, B., Horizonal Mergers, Collusion, and Sockholder Wealh. Journal of Financial Economics, 11(14), pp Edmans, A., Garcia, D., and Norli, O., Spors senimen and sock reurns. Journal of Finance, 62(4), pp Ehrmann, M. and Jansen, D.J., The Pich Raher Than he Pi Invesor Inaenion During Fifa World Cup Maches. ECB Working Paper Series, Eker, G., Berumen, H., and Dogan, B., Fooball and Exchange Raes: Empirical Suppor for Behavioral Economics. Psychological Repors, 101(2), pp Gerlach, J.R., Inernaional spors and invesor senimen: do naional eam maches really affec sock marke reurns? Applied Financial Economics, 21(12), pp Hirshleifer, D. and Shumway, T., Good day sunshine: sock reurns and he weaher. Journal of Finance, 58(3), Hir, E.R., Zillmann, D., Erickson, G.A., and Kennedy, C., Coss and benefis of allegiance: Changes in fans' selfascribed compeencies afer eam vicory versus defea. Journal of Personaliy and Social Psychology, 63(5), pp Kamsra, M.J., Kramer, L.A., and Levi, M.D., Losing sleep a he marke: The daylighsavings anomaly. American Economic Review, 90(4), pp Kaplanski, G. and Levy, H., Exploiable Predicable Irraionaliy: The FIFA World Cup Effec on he U.S. Sock Marke. Journal of Financial and Quaniaive Analysis, 45(2), pp Ke, M.C., Chiang, Y.C., and Liao, T.L., Dayofheweek effec in he Taiwan foreign exchange marke. Journal of Banking and Finance, 31(9), pp Kerr, J.H., Wilson, G.V., Nakamura, I., and Sudo, Y., Emoional dynamics of soccer fans a winning and losing games. Personaliy and Individual Differences, 38(8), pp
21 King, R.G., Plosser, C., Money, Credi, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle. American Economic Review, 64, Levy, T. and Yagil, J., Air polluion and sock reurns in he US. Journal of Economic Psychology, 32(3), pp Palomino, F., Renneboog, L., and Zhang, C., Informaion salience, invesor senimen, and sock reurns: The case of Briish soccer being. Journal of Corporae Finance, 15(3), pp Peersen, M.A., Esimaing Sandard Errors in Finance Panel Daa Ses: Comparing Approaches. The Review of Financial Sudies, 22(1), pp Rodrik, D., The Turkish Economy afer he Global Financial Crisis. Ekonomiek Volume, 1(1), pp Saunders, E.M., Sock prices and Wall Sree weaher. American Economic Review, 83(5), pp Scholens, B. and Peensra, W., Scoring on he Sock Exchange? The effec of fooball maches on sock marke reurns: An even sudy. Applied Economics, 41(25), pp Sadmann, G., Frequen News and Pure Signals: The Case of a Publicly Traded Fooball Club. Scoish Journal of Poliical Economy, 53(4), pp Yuan, K., Zheng, L., and Zhu, Q., Are invesors moonsruck? lunar phases and sock reurns. Journal of Empirical Finance, 13(1), pp Zuber, R. A., Yiu, P., Lamb, R.P. and Gandar, J.M., Invesorfans? An examinaion of he performance of publicly raded English Premier League eams. Applied Financial Economics, 15(5), pp
22 Figure 1. Foreigners' share in he Isanbul Sock Exchange Source: Isanbul Universiy SERPAM, Turkish Capial Marke Repor 2012 and Gedik Yaırım, BIST Equiy Marke Foreigners Trade, May 2013.
23 Table 1. Tes of Spor Senimen Effec by Seemingly Unrelaed Regression Period 7/1/19996/30/2011 7/1/ /31/2005 1/1/20066/30/2011 Parameer Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Inercep ** * win ** loss *** * Naional fb BJK * gs ** *** fbwin * BJKwin ** gswin ** ** fbloss bjkloss * gsloss FSaisics ***, **, and * represen saisical significance a he 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respecively. The dependen variable is he residuals colleced from equaion (1). Win and loss are indicaors of inernaional soccer mach resuls. Naional, FB, BJK and GS are dummies for naional eam, Fenerbahce (FB), Besikas (BJK), and Galaasaray (GS). The oher variables are ineracion erms, for insance, fbwin is Fenerbahce muliplying he win parameer.
24 Table 2. Tes of Spor Senimen Effec by Panel Daa Analysis Period 7/1/19996/30/2011 7/1/ /31/2005 1/1/20066/30/2011 NeweyWes DriscollKraay NeweyWes DriscollKraay NeweyWes DriscollKraay Parameer Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Inercep *** *** *** win loss * Naional fb BJK gs * *** *** fbwin * BJKwin gswin *** ** *** ** fbloss bjkloss gsloss ***, **, and * represen saisical significance a he 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respecively. The dependen variable is he residuals colleced from equaion (1). Win and loss are indicaors of inernaional soccer mach resuls. Naional, FB, BJK and GS are dummies for naional eam, Fenerbahce (FB), Besikas (BJK), and Galaasaray (GS). The oher variables are ineracion erms, for insance, fbwin is Fenerbahce muliplying he win parameer.
25 Table 3. Tes of Spor Senimen Effec Excluding Monday Maches and SporRelaed Firms Seemingly Unrelaed Regression (cluser effec) NeweyWes DriscollKraay Parameer Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Esimae Pr > Inercep ** win loss *** ** Naional fb BJK gs fbwin BJKwin gswin ** *** ** fbloss bjkloss ** gsloss *** * ***, **, and * represen saisical significance a he 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respecively. The dependen variable is he residuals colleced from equaion (1). Win and loss are indicaors of inernaional soccer mach resuls. Naional, FB, BJK and GS are dummies for naional eam, Fenerbahce (FB), Besikas (BJK), and Galaasaray (GS). The oher variables are ineracion erms, for insance, fbwin is Fenerbahce muliplying he win parameer.
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