MODELLING OF MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS AT NON-EXCLUSIVE MOTORCYCLE LANE JUNCTIONS IN MALAYSIA

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1 MODELLING OF MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS AT NON-EXCLUSIVE MOTORCYCLE LANE JUNCTIONS IN MALAYSIA HARNEN SULISTIO DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA 2004

2 DEDICATION Especially dedicated to: In memorial My father and My mother H. Soerahman and Hj. Siti Aminas ii

3 Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy MODELLING OF MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS AT NON-EXCLUSIVE MOTORCYCLE LANE JUNCTIONS IN MALAYSIA By HARNEN SULISTIO March 2004 Chairman: Faculty: Professor Ir. Radin Umar Radin Sohadi, Ph.D Engineering In Malaysia, motorcycles constitute more than half of the total registered vehicles and contribute to more than 60% of casualties (death, hospitalised and slight injury) to total traffic accidents. In the period, almost 3,000 motorcyclists were killed every year in traffic accidents. To overcome such problems, the exclusive motorcycle lanes have been constructed along the major trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address junction accidents involving motorcycles. As such, a detailed study on this area has been carried out to allow traffic engineers to establish appropriate junction treatment criteria specifically designed for non-exclusive motorcycle lane facilities. iii

4 A total of 104 junctions in Hulu Langat, Klang, Kuala Langat and Petaling districts with 1,095 injury related motorcycle accidents in the period were included in the study. The generalised linear modelling with Poisson distribution was used to develop the model. The variables of the model were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. The final models revealed that traffic flow entering the junction, approach speed, lane width, number of lanes on major road, shoulder width, junction control and land use were significant in explaining motorcycle accidents. Meanwhile, pedestrian flow, number of lanes on minor road and number of intersecting legs were not significant in explaining motorcycle accidents. Non-motorcycle flow on major road had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents at junctions. The final models allow traffic engineers to decide the appropriate intervention levels for junction treatment with respect to motorcycle accidents. Using the final models, design parameters for junctions may be changed to achieve the appropriate safety levels for them. The decision on whether to allow motorcycles to pass through a junction without treatment to it or the need for special end treatment to minimise motorcycle conflicts at junctions can be objectively carried out based on the model, and this can easily be done using the software developed in this study. Apart from the software, a series of design curves relating major road and minor road flows at junctions with typical shoulder widths of 0.0 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, 2.0 m iv

5 and 2.5m have been established. The design curves were developed based on the number of Personal Injury Accidents (PIA) of 1-PIA per year. These design curves also enable traffic engineers to decide the need for special end treatment of the junctions. v

6 Abstrak tesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Doktor Falsafah MODEL KEMALANGAN MOTOSIKAL DI PERSIMPANGAN LORONG MOTOSIKAL BUKAN EKSLUSIF DI MALAYSIA Oleh HARNEN SULISTO Mac 2004 Pengerusi: Fakulti: Professor Ir. Radin Umar Radin Sohadi, Ph.D Kejuruteraan Motosikal merupakan lebih separuh daripada jumlah kenderaan yang didaftarkan dan ini telah menyumbang kepada lebih 60% kecederaan (maut, cedera parah, dan cedera ringan) jalan raya di Malaysia. Dalam tempoh sahaja, seramai lebih 3,000 penunggang motosikal terbunuh setiap tahun dalam nahas kemalangan jalan raya. Untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut, lorong motosikal ekslusif telah dibina di beberapa lebuh raya di Malaysia. Namun, masih kurang kajian dilakukan setakat ini untuk mengatasi masalah kemalangan jalan raya yang melibatkan motosikal di persimpangan-persimpangan jalan. Oleh yang demikian, kajian terperinci telah dijalankan untuk membolehkan jurutera trafik membangunkan kriteria rawatan untuk persimpangan-persimpangan di lorong motosikal bukan ekslusif. Sejumlah 104 buah persimpangan di daerah Hulu Langat, Klang, Kuala Langat dan Petaling dengan jumlah kemalangan 1,095 yang melibatkan kecederaan vi

7 penunggang motosikal yang berlaku di antara tahun telah digunakan dalam kajian ini. Model generalisasi linier dengan taburan Poisson telah digunakan dalam pembentukan model ini. Pembolehubah model telah dianalisis dengan menggunakan kaedah analisis univariat dan multivariat. Model yang dibentuk menunjukkan bahawa aliran trafik yang memasuki persimpangan jalan, laju setempat, lebar lorong, bilangan lorong di jalan utama, lebar bahu jalan, kawalan persimpangan dan guna tanah merupakan faktor penting dalam mempengaruhi kemalangan motosikal. Sementara itu, aliran pejalan kaki, bilangan lorong di jalan kecil, dan bilangan cabang persimpangan didapati tidak mempengaruhi kemalangan motosikal di persimpangan jalan. Aliran kenderaan bukan motosikal di jalan utama didapati mempunyai pengaruh yang paling tinggi dalam kebarangkalian berlakunya kemalangan motosikal di persimpangan jalan. Model yang dibentuk membolehkan jurutera trafik memutuskan paras intervensi bagi merawat sesuatu persimpangan berpandukan kadar kemalangan motosikal yang ditetapkan. Melalui model ini, parameter rekabentuk persimpangan boleh diubahsuai untuk mencapai tahap keselamatan sesuatu persimpangan. Keputusan sama ada membenarkan motosikal melalui persimpangan tanpa rawatan atau perlunya rawatan khas untuk meminimumkan konflik di persimpangan boleh dilakukan berpandukan pada model ini. Ini mudah dilakukan dengan menggunakan perisian yang diterbitkan dalam kajian ini. vii

8 Selain daripada perisian, beberapa siri lengkung rekabentuk telah diterbitkan untuk menghubungkaitkan aliran trafik dan lebar bahu jalan 0.0 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, 2.0 m dan 2.5m. Lengkung rekabentuk ini adalah berdasarkan paras kecederaan 1.0 kemalangan cedera (PIA) penunggang motosikal setahun. Dengan menggunakan lengkung rekabentuk ini, jurutera trafik juga boleh memutuskan keperluan untuk rawatan khas terhadap persimpangan-persimpangan. viii

9 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A research study of this kind could not have been carried out without the help, assistance and co-operation of many parties. I am deeply grateful to my supervisor, Professor Ir. Dr. Radin Umar Radin Sohadi for his guidance, encouragement, constructive criticisms and invaluable advices throughout the course of this study. During the course of this study, I have learned much from him especially from his wisdom and professionalism. I would like to express my grateful thanks to my cosupervisors, Dr. Wong Shaw Voon and Associate Professor Dr. Wan Hashim Wan Ibrahim, for guiding, advising and encouraging me during the course of this study. This research is part of a study conducted under an IRPA Project entitled Development of Design Criteria and Standards for Malaysian Motorcycle Lanes. The financial support from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment Malaysia is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to take this opportunity to especially thank Ir. Shabri Shahrom and Mr.Ruslan (Highway Planning Unit, Ministry of Works, Malaysia) for their help in providing traffic data of the permanent count station and traffic census. I am also indebted to A.S.P. Roslan and the staff of Traffic Branch, Royal Malaysia Police, ix

10 Bukit Aman for their advice and guidance in the customisation of CARS 2000 database. I am also indebted to Mr. Goh Boo Hoe for guiding and assisting me in the customisation of MAAP 5 database. Special thanks are also due to Mr. Djamal A.M. of the Road Safety Research Centre, for supporting and helping me in providing maps during the preparation of field studies. I would like also to acknowledge the assistance of Mr. Lee Pak Cheng, Mr. Eng Ah Kuang and Mr. Ahmad Zamri for their help in the preparation of fieldwork and the collection of field data. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Mr. Law Teik Hwa (UPM) for his guidance in the customisation of MAAP 5, his help in the process of the procurement of GLIM 4 software, and his advice in statistical modelling for traffic accidents. To Dr. John Fletcher of the Transport Research Laboratory who gave time for discussions on traffic accident modelling, and advised me especially in the use of error distribution in statistical modelling, I extend my sincere thanks. Special thanks also due to Dr. Anthony Ockwell, the secretary of OECD, for his attention on this research area, and time spent for mailing valuable information regarding motorcycle accidents investigation in OECD member countries. I am indebted to Dr. Robert Esberger of the Institute of Traffic Engineering and Accident Statistics, KfV, Austrian Road Safety Board for his time spent for mailing valuable materials of the International Seminar on Road Traffic and Accident Data Needs For the New Century. The preparation of the draft script is indebted much to Mr. Brian O Flaherty who spent his invaluable time to proof read the draft. x

11 Special thanks also due to Dr. Kulanthayan S. for his advising and guiding the right format for the dissertation, to graduate students Ibitoye A. Billyamin, Ibrahim Sheikh, F.M Shuaeib and members of Research Associate and Graduate Research Assistance of Road Safety Research Centre (RSRC), UPM who through their support and friendship made my research work a very enjoyable experience, not forgetting Mrs. Khatijah and Mrs. Lailawati for providing much assistance. I would like to thank the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia, for the support during the course of the study. Lastly, I should thanks to my wife, Cahyani Anggorowati, my children, Yan A. Utama and Bunga Aditya SP. for being patient, understanding and their support during the course of this study. xi

12 I certify that an Examination Committee met on 19 February 2004 to conduct the final examination of Harnen Sulistio on his Doctor of Philosophy thesis entitled Modelling of Motorcycle Accidents at Non-exclusive Motorcycle Lane Junctions in Malaysia in accordance with Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Act 1980 and Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Regulations The Committee recommends that the candidate be awarded the relevant degree. Members of the Examination Committee are as follows: Ir. DADANG MOHAMAD MA SOEM, Ph.D. Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia (Chairman) Ir. RADIN UMAR RADIN SOHADI, Ph.D. Professor Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member) WONG SHAW VOON, Ph.D. Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member) WAN HASHIM WAN IBRAHIM, Ph.D. Associate Professor School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Engineering Campus (Member) MURRAY MACKAY, Ph.D, D.Sc. Professor xii

13 Accident Research Centre Faculty of Engineering, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom (Independent Examiner) GULAM RUSUL RAHMAT ALI, Ph.D. Professor / Deputy Dean School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia Date: This thesis submitted to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia and has been accepted as fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The members of the Supervisory Committee are as follows: Ir. RADIN UMAR RADIN SOHADI, Ph.D. Professor / Dean Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Chairman) WONG SHAW VOON, Ph.D. Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member) WAN HASHIM WAN IBRAHIM, Ph.D. Associate Professor / Dean School of Civil Engineering Universiti Sains Malaysia Engineering Campus (Member) AINI IDERIS, Ph.D. Professor / Dean School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia Date: xiii

14 DECLARATION I hereby declare that the thesis is based on my original work except for quotations and citations, which have been duly acknowledged. I also declare that it has not been previously or concurrently submitted for any other degree at UPM or other institutions. HARNEN SULISTIO Date: 4 March 2004 xiv

15 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DEDICATION ABSTRACT ABSTRAK ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS APPROVAL DECLARATION LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ii iii vi ix xii xiv xix xxi xxiv CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1 Overview of Traffic Accidents in Malaysia 2 Background of the Study 4 Motorcycle Accidents 4 Traffic Accidents at Junctions 10 Agenda for Junction Safety 13 The Exclusive and Non-exclusive 16 Motorcycle Lanes The Need for Studies 18 Objective of the Study 19 Hypotheses 20 Scope of the Study 21 Organisation of the Thesis 22 II LITERATURE REVIEW 23 Introduction 23 Generalised Linear Modelling 24 Model Fitting and Parameter Estimates 26 The Form of Accident Model 27 Error Distribution 29 Over Dispersion 30 Significant Testing 31 Earlier Studies on Traffic Accidents at Junctions 32 Studies on Accidents at Roundabouts and 32 Junctions A Study on Accidents at Junctions in Finland 34 A Study on Accidents at Roads with 36 Minor Junctions A Study on the Effect of Trend on Accidents at 37 Junctions xv

16 A Study on Accidents at Junctions in 38 British Columbia Studies on Accidents at Junctions in the 39 United State of America A Study on Accidents at Junctions in Denmark 42 A Study on Accidents at Signalised Junctions in 44 Japan Earlier Studies on Motorcycle Accident Modelling 45 A Study on Motorcycle Accident Modelling in the 45 United Kingdom A Study on Motorcycle Accident Modelling in 46 Malaysia Summary 49 III MATERIALS AND METHODS 51 Introduction 51 Framework of the Study 52 Data Collection 53 The Location and Junction Selection 55 Motorcycle Accidents 60 Traffic Flow 64 Pedestrian Flow 70 Approach Speeds 72 Junction Geometry 73 Number of Intersecting Legs, Junction Control and 75 Land Use Data Limitations 76 Development of Motorcycle Accident Model 77 Univariate and Multivariate Analyses 79 The Proposed Models 80 Traffic Flow Criteria for Junction Treatment 84 Summary 86 IV DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 87 Introduction 87 Analysis of Error Distribution 87 Univariate Analysis 90 Multivariate Analysis 93 The Full Model 93 The Simplified Model 101 Actual and Modelled Accidents 103 The Application of the Models 105 Summary 108 xvi

17 V THE ESTABLISHMENT OF TRAFFIC FLOW 110 CRITERIA FOR JUNCTION TREATMENT Introduction 110 Analysis 111 Effect of Traffic Flow on Motorcycle Accidents 112 The Relationship of Major Road and Minor Road 114 Flows and Accidents Acceptable Limit for Motorcycle Accidents 115 Establishing Traffic Flow Criteria 117 Motorcycle Safety Among Junction Groups 120 Summary 122 VI DISCUSSION 124 Introduction 124 The Final Models 124 Traffic Flow 126 Pedestrian Flow 129 Approach Speed 129 Lane Width 131 Number of Lanes 132 Shoulder Width 134 Number of Intersecting Legs 137 Junction Control 138 Land Use 139 Junction Treatment Criteria 141 Traffic Flow Criteria 141 The Priority for Non-exclusive 142 Motorcycle Lane Facilities Three-legged Signalised Junctions of the 145 Sea gull Type VII CONCLUSION 147 Recommendations 151 Further Study 154 REFERENCES 158 APPENDIX A Typical POL 27 Reports for Motorcycle Accident at 163 Junction Typical Output of CARS-2000 Database 171 Motorcycle Accidents, Node Number and 174 Description of Junction Location Data for A Typical Selected Junction 178 Location and Description of Traffic Census 181 Typical Traffic Census Data 183 xvii

18 Hourly, Daily and Monthly Factors 187 Estimated Annual Average Daily Traffic 197 (AADT) for Selected Junctions The Data and the Model Variables for the Selected 205 Junctions B Observed and Expected Accident Frequencies for 209 Respective Group of Junctions The Results of Univariate Analysis of Full Model for 216 Respective Group of Junctions The Software for Final Models 223 The Effect of Traffic Flow on Motorcycle Accidents for 227 Respective Group of Junctions The Relationship of Major Road and Minor Road Flows for 230 Junctions with and without Shoulder and Various Numbers of Motorcycle Accidents The Relationship of Major Road and Minor Road Flows for 233 Junction with Differing Shoulder Widths for Respective Group of Junctions Typical Traffic Flow Criteria for Respective Group of 236 Junctions C Statistical Output of Analysis of Error Distribution 242 Statistical Output of Univariate Analysis of Full Model 246 Statistical Output of Multivariate Analysis of Full Model 286 Statistical Output of Multivariate Analysis of 330 Simplified Model Statistical Output of Correlation between Parameter 344 Estimates for Respective Group of Junctions BIODATA OF THE AUTHOR 348 xviii

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