The National Crime Victimization Survey: 32 Years of measuring crime in the United States

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1 The National Crime Victimization Survey: 32 Years of measuring crime in the United States Michael Rand Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)

2 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Initiated in 1972 (as the National Crime Survey) Purposes: Measure dark figure of unreported crime Obtain information on characteristics of crime victims and crime events Provide estimates of year to year change

3 Impetus for NCVS Report If we knew more about the character of both offenders and victims, the nature of their relationships and the circumstances that create a high probability of crime conduct, it seems likely that crime prevention and control programs could be made much more effective. The President s Commission on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice. Task Force Report: Crime and Its Impact: An Assessment, 1967

4 Crimes measured by NCVS Rape Sexual Assault Robbery Aggravated Assault Simple Assault Pocket picking/purse snatching Burglary Motor vehicle theft Theft

5 Core components of NCVS methodology stratified multi stage clustered address sample interview respondents 7 times over 3 years 6 month reference period bounding interview interview every household member for them self two part interview: screener and incident report

6 Types of changes to the survey Methodological (changes in survey design) Adding/changing questions to obtain more information about victims and crimes Expand the scope of offenses measured Cost reducing

7 NCVS Redesign Decade-long research/implementation ( ) Improved detection of hard-to-measure crimes: Rape and Sexual assault Domestic violence New cues to help victims recall events not reported to the police Change in series protocol Change in survey name (NCS to NCVS to reflect redesign

8 Violent crime rates, & NCVS/NCS ratio Rate per 1,000 persons NCS NCVS 40 Violent crime (1.49) Simple assault (1.75) 10 Aggravated assault (1.23) Rape (2.57) Robbery (1.03)

9 Recent and upcoming changes Crime against people with disabilities Identity theft Stalking Survey automation

10 Impact of the redesign Higher victimization rates for most crimes measured Measurement of sexual assault (other than rape or attempted rape)

11 The NCVS has taught us much of what we know about crime in the United States

12 NCVS Sample Nationally representative stratified multistage sample drawn from Decennial Census Household (address)-based survey One of the largest ongoing gov t surveys sample interviewed every 6 months 42,000 households 76,050 people

13 NCVS crime coverage Measures crimes both reported and not reported to police Considered Omnibus Crime Survey: Measures crimes of violence and theft

14 Data Collection U.S. Census Bureau Field Representatives (FRs)) conduct all interviews FR s: : 76% female; 24% male FRs report to 12 regional field offices throughout the U.S. First interview is conducted in person; subsequent interviews are attempted by telephone Currently both paper and pencil and CATI

15 NCVS Interview Two part interview Crime screener Screens for any crimes during previous 6 months Incident report Details of incident: what, when, how, by whom, consequences, etc

16 NCVS Procedures Households interviewed 7 times at 6 month intervals (3 years) First interview used to bound the next interview All household members age 12+ interviewed by self-response First screen for possible crimes, then obtain details Series protocol for frequent or ongoing victimization

17 NCVS Crime screening 7-9 multi-part questions determine whether person (or household) was victim of crime during previous 6 months Questions focus on different types or aspects of crime to help elicit response

18 Response rate 2002 response rates 92% households 87% individuals Ranks among highest response rates of all Census surveys Senior field representatives are sent to households that refuse in-person interviews or in CATI

19 Quality Assurance Regional office quality edit (with feedback to interviewers) Independent clerical edit and coding Verification of data keying Computer consistency edits Statistical weighting to improve estimates

20 NCVS Summary: Strengths Strengths Large sample Ability to aggregate data over years Improved methodology since redesign Consistent methodology enables trend analysis Unreported crime Detailed victim, offender and incident data Platform for supplemental studies

21 NCVS Summary: Limitations Limitations Administered to persons age 12+ Typically cannot include very sensitive questions No local data; cannot be disaggregated beyond 4 regions Omnibus survey means cannot focus on specific types of victimization Survey procedures may inhibit reporting of some victimizations

22 Supplements to the NCVS Conducted for 6 months Limited to about 10 minutes Future supplement Stalking (January 2006) Previous supplements School Crime Police and Public Contact Workplace Risk

23 Annual Bulletin n Latest rate estimates n Year-to-year change n Crime trends n Basic characteristics

24 Special Reports Topical Detailed analyses Aggregate over years Victimization of College Students Weapon use in Violent Crime

25 Serious violent crime levels declined since 1993.

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