Road Transport Problem Diagnosis

Transcription

1 Road Transport Problem Diagnosis + Atmospheric Pollution + Noise + Vibration Road Traffic Congestion + Road Traffic Injuries Life span Obesity Sleep BP School IIT Delhi 2007

2 FRIENDS & URBAN TRANSPORT Light traffic 2,000 v/day 3.0 friends 5.3 acquaintances Moderate 8,000 v/day 1.3 friends 4.1 acquaintances Light traffic 16,000 v/day 0.9 friends 3.1 acquaintances Source: Dr.Carlos Dora IIT Delhi 2007

3 More sustainability issues IIT Delhi 2007

4 IIT Delhi December 07

5 Evidence from traffic interventions Narrow solutions: limited results Continuing Traffic Growth Has Cancelled Out Pollution Savings from Cleaner and More Efficient Vehicles Cars are becoming heavier and more powerful. Trips are becoming increasingly long. Total kilometers traveled by road continues to grow EC: Transport in Figures, 2000 Source: Dr.Carlos Dora IIT Delhi 2007

6 IIT Delhi December 07

7 Death rate for Tuberculosis, , United States, Source: US Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States; Colonial Times to 1970 (Washington, D.C: Government Printing Office, 1975), Part 1 pp58,63. Note: Data between 1860 and 1900 for Massachusetts only. IIT Delhi December 07

8 Death Rates for Measles in Children Under Age 15, England and Wales, Source: Thomas McKeown, The Modern Rise of Population (Academic Press, San Francisco, 1976), pp. 93, 96. IIT Delhi December 07

9 World cities - facts Cars/100 person Similar road space except H Kong London S pore H.Kong Delhi Trips per person per day MRT Bus 0 London (.95) S pore (.96) H.Kong (1.14) Delhi (.73) IIT Delhi 2007

10 EVIDENCE FROM LARGE RICH CITIES Percent share 100% 80% % 40% % 0% London New York Tokyo Singapore Hong Kong * Metro + Rail Bus Car + MTW NMT IIT Delhi December 07

11 EVIDENCE FROM LARGE RICH CITIES Pass/day/km, thousand Metro productivty vs city population Population, million Pass/day/km, thousand BRT productivity vs city population Population, million Pass/day/km, thousand Metro productivity vs per-capita income ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Per capita income US$/year (country) Pass/day/km, thousand BRT productivity vs per-capita income 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Per capita income US$/year (country) Pass/day/km, thousand Metro productivity vs system length Total length, km Pass/day/km, thousand BRT productivity vs system length Total length, km IIT Delhi December 07

12 EVIDENCE FROM MEDIUM RICH CITIES Car + MTW PT W&C IIT Delhi December 07 Percent Bristol, UK Leeds, UK Nantes, France Helsinki, Finland Marseille, France Edinburgh, UK Newcastle, UK Brussels, Belgium Frankfurt, Germany Stuttgart, Germany Amsterdam, Neth's

13 How do we Reduce trip lengths? Conundrum Public transport in large cities < $ 10,000 pc/y Reduce number of trips? Mexico city Private vehicles Taxi Minibus & collectivo Large bus / light rail Metro 18 Reduce motor vehicle use? 45 Increase walking and bicycling? 6 Increase 5 public transport use? 26 Select public transport technology? Only 7% drive in Just provision of high capacity systems does not provide solutions 8 55 IIT Delhi 2006

14 World cities - facts Transport modes in Singapore Walk/bike Taxi MTW Car + M etro Car Bus + M etro Metro Bus Workers Students Percent Main mode to work in Mumbai, India Walk Bicycle Two-Wheeler Car Auto-Rickshaw Public Bus Train All commuters Low income Percent All infrastructure investments

15 Time, minutes km 6 km Time, minutes Metro BRT Car Bicycle Walk 0 Metro BRT Car Bicycle Walking to station/veh Walking in station Waiting at station Journey in vehicle Walking to destination Congestion (car) One change km 24 km Time, miniutes Time, minutes Metro BRT Car 0 Metro BRT Car IIT Delhi December 07

16 Hong Kong Tokyo New York High rise buildings, congestion necessary for Metro Feeder trip in lifts Only way large number close to destination Metros run empty in less dense cities What kind of a city do we want? IIT Delhi 2007

17 CO2 emissions per passenger km Car Bus Metro Light rail Peak capacity 40% capacity IIT Delhi 2007

18 Potential Environment Benefits Elevated Expressway CO2 (tons/day) 排放量 ( 噸 / 日 ) MRT BRT 年期

19 Modern city characteristics Relatively low rise development with planned multiple business districts Very high ownership of motorised two wheelers, especially in Asia. About 70 percent of families in Delhi own a motorised vehicle Marginal cost of operating a motorised two-wheeled vehicle is about Rs 0.75 per km at 2005 prices. This determines the maximum fare box levels for public transport Most cities are expanding in a radial mode and are not likely to develop one concentrated high density business district in the foreseeable future Most cities have mixed land use patterns and we are not likely to succeed in implementing strict zoning for land use, even if it were desirable THEREFORE, THERE IS NO NEED FOR VERY CAPACITY TRANSIT SYSTEMS IIT Delhi 2007

20 Metros, congestion and the environment Reviews of the metro systems around the world conclude that rail based systems do not reduce congestion or improve the environment None of the systems (rail based) appear to have reduced the problems caused by the car None of them caused a decline in overall bus usage None of the systems caused reduction in car usage, congestion relief, or improve air quality Mackett R. and Sutcliffe, E. B. New urban rail systems: a policy-based technique to make them more successful, Journal of Transport Geography, 11: , IIT Delhi 2007

21 Finances - Delhi example Cost of 60 km project 12,000 crores Opportunity cost Rs 1,200 crores per year for ever Assumption 5% interest rate Assumption 5% depreciation rate Current ridership : ~ 5 lakh passengers per day (20% of expected ridership) Subsidy per passenger not counting operating costs : Kolakata Rs. Metro: 30 Operating 40 thousand at 10% projected capacity after 20 years per passenger per year IIT Delhi 2006

22 Fatality risk in traffic crashes in US cities Cities within the same state have different crash rates - San Diego and San Jose in California Cities have different patterns - San Francisco has a higher rate for pedestrians and Los Angeles has a higher rate for vehicles One city can have the a zero rate of fatalities (East Los Angeles CDP) and another city in the same state with a similar population have one of the highest rates (San Bernardino, CA) Pop: 116,278 Ped: 5.16 MV: Pop: 114,024 Ped: 0 MV: 0.0 Columbia Ann Arbor IIT Delhi 2007

23 Urban block, bus stop and road design Walking speed: 1 m/s Pedestrian phase: ~20s Carriageway: < 25 m Urban Block < 1000 m Bus stop At junction IIT Delhi 2007

24 Why BRTS? Shortest planning & construction time BRT years / Metro - 7 years (~18km) Efficient utilization of road space BRT 5-20 crores / km Metro 100 to 200 crores / km COST CONSIDERATIONS

25 Taipei, Taiwan Creative use of lane space

26 BRTS Benefits state-of-the-art mass transit system at a fraction of the cost of other options. Bus Rapid Transit utilizes central lanes on arterials roads No friction with other vehicles Not affected by traffic jams Lanes can be used by police in extreme emergencies In operation in cities of all sizes

27 IIT Delhi September 07 BRT : CAR 1 WAY, BUS ONE WAY ROW ~ 15 m Pedestrian path 2 m x 2 Bus lane m Car lane 3.0 m Bicycle lane 2 m

28 BRT : CAR 1 WAY 2 LANES, BUS ONE WAY ROW ~ 18 m IIT Delhi September 07 Pedestrian path 3 m x 2m Bus lane m Car lane 3.0 m X 2 Bicycle lane None

29 BRT : CAR 1 WAY, BUS ONE WAY ROW ~ 10 m IIT Delhi September 07 Pedestrian path 2 m Bus lane m Car lane 3.0 m Bicycle lane None

30 IIT Delhi September 07 BRT : CAR 1 WAY 2 LANES, BUS TWO WAY ROW ~ m Pedestrian path 4 m x 2 Bus lane m x 2 Car lane 3.0 m x 2 Bicycle lane 2m x 2

31 IIT Delhi September 07 BRT : CAR 2 WAY 2 LANES, BUS TWO WAY ROW ~ m Pedestrian path 4 m x 2 Bus lane m x 2 Car lane 3.0 m x 4 Bicycle lane Mixed

32 IIT Delhi 2007 CONCERNS FARE BOX LIMITED BY MARGINAL COST OF TWO-WHEELER USE, EXCEPT FOR LUXURY BUSES About Rs 1.00 per km at 2007 prices >>>>> Minimise cost of bus Design must be flexible enough for future developments in technology especially ITS Design must maintain the flexible nature of BRT

33 Toyota s new Intelligent Multimode Transit System (IMTS), driverless vehicles that move together automatically in a platoon formation on dedicated roads, as well as manual and independent operation as buses on ordinary roads. The system features the punctuality, high speed and large passenger capacity of conventional rail based systems and the economic efficiency and flexibility buses serving regular routes IIT Delhi 2007

34 This makes it possible to directly link central cities with outlying regions, without requiring the passengers to switch buses. The system can be operated flexibly and efficiently according to changes in transportation demand, and at the same time can dramatically reduce the high construction and maintenance costs associated with conventional track-based systems IIT Delhi 2007

35 30 minutes a day of Physical Activity is enough to reduce: Source: Dr.Carlos Dora By 50 % the risk of developing coronary hearth disease, By 50% the risk of developing noninsulin-dependent diabetes and obesity. By 30 % the risk of developing hypertension. The risk of colon /breast cancer. Helping to maintain bone mass and protecting against osteoporosis. Increases self-esteem, and promoting overall psychological well-being. IIT Delhi 2007

36 HOW TO MAKE CITIES LIVEABLE AND SUSTAINABLE According to latest issue of Current Science Indian cities face warming, more pollution, and water shortage Motor vehicles have killed more than million people and injured > 500 million worldwide This is not sustainable Emissions will reduce significantly only if more people walk, bicycle and use public transport Only possible if walking and bicycling made safer Cities will aesthetic, humane and human scale only if streets include large numbers of people walking and playing safely Only possible if streets free from crime only possible if most streets have business and/or street vendors Therefore roads free from accidents and crime are necessary for cleaner air IIT Delhi 2007