City of Edmonton - ETS. ETS Ridership Growth Strategy and Planning Review. Summary Report. May Excellence in Transportation Planning

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1 Attachment 1 City of Edmonton - ETS ETS Ridership Growth Strategy and Planning Review Summary Report May 2008 Excellence in Transportation Planning ENTRA Consultants Page i

2 City of Edmonton ETS ETS Ridership Growth Strategy and Planning Process Review Summary Report Table of Contents 1. Study Elements and Process 1 2. Challenges and Opportunities for Transit in Edmonton Elements of Transit Choice On-going and Emerging Challenges 3 Stakeholder Input Stakeholder Process Stakeholder Summary 4 3. Market Assessment Where are People Going to Live? Where are People Going to Work? Demographic Markets Geographic Markets Route Structure Planned Growth and Service Standards Changes Planned Growth Service Standards Strategies for Ridership Growth in Edmonton Increased Service Levels South LRT Extension Support Services Industrial Area Services Description 22 ENTRA Consultants Page 2

3 5.4 Key Corridor Connections Transit Priority Planning Process Review Rationale Recommendations Five-Year Resource Requirements Capital and Operating Costs Fleet Mix Requirements Additional Ridership Growth Features Priorities Urgent High Priority (within first year) Medium Priority (Year 1 to Year 3) Lower Priorities 3 to 5 Years 36 ENTRA Consultants Page 3

4 City of Edmonton ETS ETS Ridership Growth Strategy and Planning Process Review Summary Report 1. Study Elements and Process This study comprised two elements, a ridership growth study and a review of the planning process at Edmonton Transit Service (ETS). The study began with extensive consultation with a variety of stakeholders and included a review of the existing service and structure, an assessment of geographic and demographic markets with the identification of potential areas for service improvement and ridership growth. The ridership growth strategy outlines a range of options for increasing ridership in key market areas throughout the network. The planning process review was completed to ensure that ETS is properly equipped with analysis tools, techniques and data requirements to ensure the most effective and efficient deployment of service, and that committees and council receive accurate information, at the appropriate level, to facilitate effective decision-making. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 1

5 2. Challenges and Opportunities for Transit in Edmonton 2.1 Elements of Transit Choice Who Uses Transit in Edmonton? Edmonton Transit is used by a broad spectrum of users from the community, even though the private automobile is the dominant preferred choice. To date, ETS has had difficulty competing with the private auto except in key corridors and for specific trip destinations and purposes. Transit competes quite well in the downtown-based commuter market, especially for those with easy access to the LRT, and for travel to post-secondary campuses. Junior and senior high school students are well-served by a network of customized routes for school trips. Historically, ETS ridership has reflected the social aspect of transit, providing an alternative for those who are too young or too old to drive, and for those whose economic choices do not include auto ownership. Increasingly though, transit systems across the country in medium and large cities, are seeing substantial growth in transit riders from markets that do not fit historical patterns. These represent market segments that are increasingly concerned with the cost of driving, the impact on the environment and the quality of travel options that an effective transit service can provide. Currently commuters make up a substantial portion of the ETS travel market, with almost 60 percent of weekday travel occurring in the AM and PM peak periods, and 45 percent of travel made by adults. Add the post-secondary, and this group represents almost two-thirds of transit travel in Edmonton. The balance is made up about equally with high school students and seniors What Would Make Them Use Transit More? Extensive research in the transit industry has concluded that the main factors governing the choice of transit for daily travel are speed, reliability, comfort and convenience and cost. For the choice rider, cost is the least important of these, though on-going research suggests that the method of payment (related to comfort and convenience) is important. The most important factors for transit choice are speed, reliability and convenience. In each of these factors, transit levels of service, easy access to transit at both ends of the trip, and transit priority measures are important measures. Another important aspect of reliability and convenience is flexibility and choice, and this affects the need to provide off-peak services. While not as financially successful when considered on their own, off-peak services play a crucial role in meeting the needs of a wide range of community groups, such as seniors, students and employees with varying work schedules. Also important, off-peak services support peak services, by providing important options for travellers and increasing their comfort with the system, knowing that convenient travel options are available for them if they need them. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 2

6 2.2 On-going and Emerging Challenges There are a variety of factors contributing to a growth in transit ridership in Edmonton factors that will both increase ridership and create a challenge for service delivery and cost containment: Rising oil and gas prices. Record prices for oil and gasoline are supporting the Alberta and Edmonton economies and beginning to put constant pressure on commuters and drivers to consider alternatives, including transit. Rising fuel prices also drive up the cost of providing transit, and the recent increased demand for diesel has increased these prices even more rapidly than gasoline. Rapid growth in the city. With a buoyant economy, recent and projected growth in Edmonton is significant, and will provide the source for substantial natural growth in transit ridership. However, much of this growth, in both population and employment, is occurring on the periphery of the existing urban area, and in lower density urban form. Longer trip distances and lower density development present a significant challenge to transit service efficiency and promotes auto dependency. Greater use of and more opportunities for U-Pass. The recent introduction of the universal pass for post-secondary students has been a clear success, and will lead to significant ridership increase as additional institutions join on, and travel patterns mature. At the same time, expectations for quality transit service will increase, not just in the vicinity of campuses, but also throughout the city, student residential and activity patterns change. South LRT extension, with greater ridership potential. The South LRT extension, both under construction and future planned extensions, will tap into significant transit markets as growth and development in the south continues and the pace of development in the south quickens. Providing effective connections to the stations, and promoting transit use for the entire commuter trip will require careful planning and a commitment to high quality fast and frequent service connections. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 3

7 Stakeholder Input 2.3 Stakeholder Process Near the outset of the Ridership Growth Study and Planning Review, ENTRA conducted an extensive consultation process including individual and small group meetings with City councillors, ETS staff and senior management, senior City staff from other departments, and a variety of stakeholders representing institutions, employers, agencies and residents across the city. During the process, these initial meetings were supplemented with issue-specific meetings and meetings with new councillors. The purpose of these meetings was to gain an understanding of the current role and performance of ETS, the markets well served and under-served, and challenges facing the future of ETS. While the primary purpose of these meetings was to identify issues and concerns at a higher, strategic level, these sessions were also used to collect specific data on items such as employment, enrollment, and travel patterns, as well as to discuss specific neighbourhood issues. 2.4 Stakeholder Summary City Council City council, perhaps appropriately, represented the widest range of opinions and positions with respect to the role of ETS, areas in need of improvement, and opportunities for ridership growth. These included: service to seniors and major employers crowding on popular routes versus empty buses in neighbourhoods reducing travel times versus improving financial performance later service at night versus security concerns low cost parking and low density development supporting auto use route structure moving to a grid improved service to entertainment areas and attractions versus improving suburban service improving data collection and monitoring ETS and City Staff Not surprising, ETS staff were the most critical of the service, recognizing the deficiencies in their service at least as clearly as any other stakeholder. Staff identified the need for better integration and planning, information sharing and better communication. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 4

8 Staff identified the need for increased service frequency and better support services such as security and supervision, Employers Employers are becoming increasingly aware of the role of transportation in employee satisfaction and retention, and the cost of employee turnover. Many employers are providing or supporting private transportation options, and these represent an opportunity to expand the employer pass program and enter into new innovative partnerships with employees. For industrial areas, this also points to the need for increased services both in peak and off-peak, to improve travel options and the attractiveness of transit School Boards ETS plays an important role in the transportation of high school students to and from school every day. This service includes a variety of customized routes and services, with school specials and peak extensions, and high school students represent an important part of ETS ridership. Both students and school boards feel they are well serviced by the existing system Post-Secondary Students Post-secondary students represent one of the most important emerging markets for ETS. Post-secondary students are an important part of the commuter market in peak periods, but also represent substantial opportunities for growth in ridership in the offpeak periods. Post-secondary institutions and students recognize the need for improved service frequency on direct routes serving the campus areas, as well as throughout the network to support broad-based travel Environmental and Citizen Advocates Environmental and citizen advocates are among the strongest transit supporters in the community, and generally feel that ETS, while providing an effective service, has not expanded services far enough or fast enough to keep up with growth, and to promote transit as an effective choice in Edmonton. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 5

9 3. Market Assessment The market assessment completed for this study examined the different travel markets in the ETS community and assessed the overall performance of the ETS system in meeting the needs of those markets. This analysis was based on the consultation process conducted for the study, analysis of existing data and future trends in terms of population and employment, and assessment of existing route structure and ridership data. The city of Edmonton had a 2006 population of approximately 730,000, an increase of about 10 percent from In the larger metropolitan area, the population now exceeds 1 million people, also representing an increase of about 10 percent, though growth in the metropolitan region has been slightly higher than in the city itself. Exhibit 1 shows a comparison of the population and population density for the major cities operating the countries largest transit systems. Overall population density in the city is fairly low, at about 1,000 persons per square kilometre, compared to any of the other large cities. At the regional level, this difference becomes even more pronounced, with the density of the Montreal region (highest) more than 10 times that of the Edmonton region (lowest). This is an important factor for transit services in the region, since the effectiveness and efficiency of service are directly affected by population density. The more people that live within walking distance of each kilometre of bus route, the higher ridership will be. Cities with lower population densities need to consider a wider range of service strategies to attract ridership, and need to make services more convenient, more direct and faster to attract similar levels of ridership. Typically this means relatively higher levels of service and greater coverage. Exhibit 1 - Population of Major Cities (2006) City City Population Growth Since 2001 (%) Region Population Growth Since 2001 (%) City Area (sq. km) Density (pop./sq.km) Edmonton 730, ,100, ,067 Calgary 990, ,100, ,360 Winnipeg 630, , ,365 Toronto 2,500, ,100, ,972 Vancouver 580, ,100, ,039 Montreal 1,600, ,600, ,438 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 6

10 3.1 Where are People Going to Live? Exhibit 2 shows the projected growth pattern in each of the zones to The projections show very stable population in most of the city within the inner ring, yet significant growth on most the fringe, particularly in the north, south and southeast. This has significant implications for transit service as well. Unless travel demand can be managed to remain more localized through land use patterns, employment opportunity and travel demand management (none strictly within the control of ETS), then these areas will become increasingly difficult to serve. This means that either ridership (and revenue) performance in these areas will suffer as transit riders are less attracted to longer, slower urban trips, or service efficiency will decline. 3.2 Where are People Going to Work? Employment levels and density are another important factor in the provision of transit service since employment trips typically represent one of the largest segments of travel in larger systems. Exhibit 3 shows the employment density patterns for the city and region, with notable concentrations of employment in the central area, the northwest and southeast. Note that employment patterns are concentrated along the rail lines, depicting the historical growth patterns in the city. Also notable from Exhibit 3 is the concentration of employment in the central area relative to the rest of the city. While there is a clear concentration in the central area, the downtown is also clearly not the single focus of employment, with several areas reflecting similar densities. This is an important factor as well, since, similar to population density, large concentration of employment are easier to service than diverse patterns. This illustrates a further challenge for transit in Edmonton, serving a diverse and scattered employment market. Exhibit 4 shows the employment growth patterns for the city and region through 2016, showing strong employment growth in the traditional employment areas, but also significant increases in the southwest, particularly on the fringe, again, a difficult market to serve effectively and efficiently. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 7

11 Exhibit 2 - Population Growth ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 8

12 Exhibit 3 Employment Density ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 9

13 Exhibit 4 - Employment Growth Edmonton Employment Growth 2006 to 2016 ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 10

14 3.3 Demographic Markets Commuters Commuters, including post-secondary students are the backbone of the ETS system. Comprising mainly adults, this market dominates all others in the system, and represents an important part of not only the ETS, but the Edmonton community as well. Focussed in the peak periods (as is most employment travel overall) the demands of this market set the standards for service delivery, service levels, and vehicle requirements. Adult ridership in the system comprises about 47 percent of the total ridership, and when postsecondary students are included, this rises to about two-thirds of the ridership. At least 60 percent of this ridership is estimated to be commuter or school related. Most of the ETS route system is geared to service the commuter market during the peak periods, as described in subsequent sections. Observations Overall, the commuter market is well served by the ETS in terms of coverage, but could benefit from increased service frequency both throughout the system generally, and in specific geographical areas, as described in the next section. Currently, the most frequent routes in the ETS operate with service intervals of just under 10 minutes, but only a few routes operate at this level. For the commuter, this is close to the threshold at which service becomes very convenient, commonly around 10- minute service intervals. At this level, knowledge of the schedule becomes less important, since missing a bus typically means a short wait for the following bus. At 15- minute intervals, many riders still rely on the schedules and are wary of unreliable service. In the ETS, 15-minute and even 30-minute services are common in peak periods, which does not promote ridership growth. Five-Year Outlook The five-year outlook for the commuter market is affected by both projected population growth and an expected increase in the propensity to use transit. Population increases of around 10 percent are expected to result in similar levels of ridership increases compounded by factors such as oil and gas prices, increasing congestion and increasing environmental awareness. If service is enhanced to capitalize on these factors, this market can be expected to increase in line with current trends, in the order of 7 to 10 percent per year, at a minimum. The post-secondary student ridership described here is based on data collected before the introduction of the U-Pass. As U-Pass programs expand throughout all the institutions, post-secondary ridership can be expected to increase dramatically over the next five years. Compounding this increase are the expansion plans of each of the institutions, including new campuses in the south of the city, which will support and be supported by the south LRT extension and its next phases, but also put increasing stress on bus services in the short-term. Each of these service changes will result in increasing pressure for service increases both in terms of service levels on individual routes throughout the system (both peak and off-peak) as well as longer span of service with demands for increased service levels ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 11

15 later at night and on weekends. Demands for late-night or all-night service have been topical throughout this study, and led to the consideration of service increases as a specific strategy for ridership growth Seniors Similar to many systems, seniors are a very important segment of the ETS ridership, and arguably more important than their absolute numbers reflect. Seniors represent approximately 10 percent of the overall ridership in the ETS system, but attract significant political attention and are a critical market to serve. Observations Travel needs of seniors often overlap with those of other markets and good comprehensive services that serve the community well are also well suited for seniors. More specifically, seniors can benefit from services that are more directly designed to meet specific travel needs, particularly peak services for medical appointments, and offpeak services for medical, shopping and recreational trips. This suggests an opportunity for service strategies directed at the seniors markets, with the use of customized routes (similar to the student concept) and using smaller buses. These services can also be designed to play a multi-market role not serving seniors exclusively, but accommodating a range of community needs in harder to serve area, low demand areas and in low demand periods of the day. Five-Year Outlook In the short-term, the continuing aging of the population will be reflected in an increasing seniors population, though not necessarily within the traditional seniors market. The aging of the population has led to a distinct division in the seniors cohort, one typically older and often on fixed incomes and with increasing disabilities, and the other typically younger and with more disposable income. In the short-term, large increases in the traditional seniors transit market are not expected, but there is an opportunity to continually to capitalize on common growth pressures and expand dedicated services for this market Students High school students represent an important aspect of the ETS ridership (approximately 20 percent of the annual total) and an important service component within the community. As noted, post-secondary students are considered as a special subset of the commuter market. Current Practice ETS currently accommodates most of the high school market demand through regular routes or a series of school routes. For the most part, these school routes are additions or specific diversions of regular routes that provide service in close proximity to the school around bell times. When determining the need for school-related services, ETS assesses the ability of the regular route network to accommodate the demand first, since this is the preferred service option. If student demand is too great to be accommodated on the regular routes ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 12

16 within established standards, then school specials are considered, first as additional trips on the regular routing, and then as customized routings. These customized routings provide direct travel between neighbourhoods and the schools and are both effective and popular. Scheduling options that combine these routes with other regular route trips make them very efficient. Observations In consultation with representatives of the school boards, there is general consensus that the school transportation needs of students are well met by the existing system. This system provides a high degree of direct access, making the system very effective, and competent scheduling of the runs makes the system very efficient as well. Because of their short duration and typically high ridership, school routes are among the highest performers in the ETS system. Five-Year Outlook The secondary student market will experience some natural growth in line with population increases, tempered by an expected general decline of this age cohort, resulting in a generally stable market in the short term. Changes in pass structure allowing student passes to be used outside of regular school travel have been discussed over the years, and this change, if implemented, could see a marked increase of transit travel by this group. Without this type of change, the secondary student market should remain stable, and decline in terms of its share of overall ETS ridership. 3.4 Geographic Markets Geographic markets were assessed to determine where people want to travel to and from in Edmonton, how well transit services those patterns now, and where any gaps existed where transit might increase its role and attract new ridership. This assessment was based on an analysis of existing and future travel patterns in the city, compared to the supply of transit service in terms of vehicle trips. This analysis revealed significant supply of service to the downtown, reflected in the higher transit share for downtown-based trips. In addition to the key corridors currently identified and the subject of on-going work (west Edmonton to downtown, downtown to north Edmonton and Mill Woods to downtown), this analysis also reveled an under-supply of trips in several key areas including: major industrial areas east-west travel in north Edmonton east-west travel in south Edmonton Each of these is addressed in the proposed service strategies. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 13

17 3.5 Route Structure As part of the assessment of transit supply versus overall travel demand, the question of route structure, which was raised on several fronts in the consultation, was also addressed. This analysis examined the overall supply pattern relative to the total travel patterns in Edmonton and examined several alternatives to the existing structure: Grid structures are typically used in areas with high densities that have few physical barriers. This structure provides the best service in terms of flexibility and travel options, but requires high service frequency and extensive use of transfers. In offpeak periods, when high frequencies cannot be supported, grid networks can be inconvenient. Radial and loop systems comprise a series of radial routes usually focusing on the downtown, accompanied by cross-town connections routes. These are typically used in smaller transit systems and commuter systems, because they provide good coverage at lower cost. Satellite networks are similar to radial system, with radial routes based around a series of hubs, with routes connecting the hubs. These are more common in larger, more complex systems with diverse activity centers. Direct ride networks are designed to reduce transfers by diverting routes and providing direct extensions to service major generators. These systems provide the most attractive service for a large number of riders, at the expense of being more confusing for the casual rider. These networks also rely on good understanding of travel patterns and demands, and are less flexible that other structures. The ETS route structure exhibits characteristics of each of these major route systems, with a focus on the direct ride and satellite elements. Based on the assessment of overall travel patterns and the transit service supply, this structure represents an effective and efficient approach for Edmonton. The limitations of this system, namely complex route patterns and inflexibility should be addressed by renewed marketing and information campaigns and enhanced data collection, respectively. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 14

18 4. Planned Growth and Service Standards Changes 4.1 Planned Growth Description As noted earlier, Edmonton s population is expected to grow by about 16 percent over the next five years, with corresponding increases in employment. This will require continued expansion of the system in terms of both vehicle requirements and operating hours of service. This significant growth in bus and service hour requirements is due largely to expansion of the developed area and the corresponding ETS service area, resulting in longer trips and the demand generated by U-pass, with the need to increase service both to catch up with demand and to continue to promote growth through increased ridership. Also, consistent with the recommended service standards, the proposed service includes the annualization of 2008 off-peak service increases in 2009 representing the need to bring forward three years of off-peak service increases in the first year of the plan Implications and Sensitivity ETS staff assessed the requirements for service supply based on existing service practices. To accommodate this growth, ETS will need 228 additional buses (40-foot bus equivalents) and 549,000 hours of service. This represents an increase of 27 percent in vehicles at a cost of about $92 million and 29 percent in service hours, at a cost of about $38 million. Conservatively, ridership resulting from this service increase is estimated by staff at approximately 12.5 million rides, or about 20 percent of the existing ridership, with revenue of about $15 million. This represents an increase of less than 4 percent annually, which is arguably low. Based on historical growth, and the strength of the postsecondary market, this ridership growth, over the five-year period, could be closer to the average, or approaching 18 million rides. At the low range, this will result in an increase rides per capita from about 79 to 78, and have a slight downward pressure on cost recovery. However, at the higher end of the range, rides per capita will increase to about 87, and the influence on cost recovery would be positive. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 15

19 4.2 Service Standards Service standards for ETS were last updated in Since then, the city of Edmonton has seen significant growth and changing conditions, both in terms of transit service and ridership, as well as the traffic environment in which it operates. To respond to these challenges, ETS also needs performance measures that are appropriate for the type of route and market, and allow planning and deployment of effective and efficient routes that attract ridership. To ensure maximum ridership growth, service standards must promote and support ridership, permit early introduction of service into developing areas, and permit supporting off-peak services. ETS currently maintains service standards practices consistent with those of other large systems in Canada. Like these other systems, these standards and practices do not sufficiently reward moderate performing routes with increased service frequency, instead requiring the route to be come overcrowded before service can be added. Additionally, existing service standards tend to undervalue off-peak services, ignoring the role that these services play in supporting peak services, and in promoting transit as an effective choice for travel to a variety of non-commuter markets. For the growing post-secondary student market in Edmonton, this point becomes crucial, and the recommended service standards address each of these issues Description Walking Distance and Coverage The walking distance and coverage standard establishes an 800-metre network of services that will operate in all operating periods, bringing transit service to 90 percent of residences and employees. During most periods of the day, from start of service to 10:00 pm on weekdays and in midday periods on Saturdays and Sundays, the objective will be to provide a 400-metre coverage to the same extent. This will bring transit to within a five-minute walk of most of Edmonton. ETS service currently comes close to meeting this standard. In late night periods, a small expansion is required to meet the span of service standard, and some reallocation of route resources may be necessary to achieve sufficient geographic coverage. Frequency and Span of Service The proposed standards include a wider span of service, extending service start times to 5:30 am in the morning, and extending finish times to 2:00 am in the late night period. These changes reflect the changing nature of shift work and longer travel distances, and the increasing demand for off-peak travel demands. During these periods, minimum service frequency standards will ensure attractive, affordable service. For weekdays from start of service to 10:00 pm, the minimum service frequency on all routes in operation is set at 30 minutes. This same frequency applies until 7:00 pm on weekends. Outside of these times, the minimum service frequency will be set at 60 minutes, and more frequent service will be provided where warranted. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 16

20 Implementing these standards will increase operating costs by approximately $4.2 million annually when fully in place, and increase ridership by approximately 820,000 annual rides. Estimated revenue is approximately $1.1 million. Because this represents increase in off-peak service, financial performance is expected to be below the systemwide average, and therefore there will be a downward influence on cost recovery. Ridership estimates, especially for late night services are very conservative, and there has been no allowance made for an expected positive influence on peak ridership resulting from the increase in off-peak service, as the entire network becomes a more attractive choice to riders. Accounting for these factors will help mitigate the expected lower financial performance of these service improvements. Route Performance Standards To ensure the availability of services, especially in off-peak periods, route performance standards have been adjusted slightly and specialty services have been assigned their own unique levels or measures: Local Service weekday peaks: 30 boardings per hour other time periods: 15 boardings per hour (change moves weekday midday period to this level to promote off-peak service) Industrial Routes weekday peaks: 20 boardings per hour (reduced level to promote service) other time periods: 15 boardings per hour Community Bus Routes all time periods: 10 boardings per hour (reduced level to promote service) Express, School and Customized Trips (new measure) all time periods: 80 percent of seated capacity Demand Thresholds ETS currently maintains high and low demand thresholds as flags for detailed examination of services to improve performance. High thresholds are intended to identify when a route is over-crowded and would benefit from increased service. Low thresholds are designed to identify poor performing routes in need of remedial action to improve performance. The low demand thresholds, reflected in the route performance standards are designed to promote off-peak service, provide realistic thresholds for industrial service and allow service expansion into these areas, and provide reasonable market expectations for seniors services. Higher demand thresholds include measures for identifying overcrowded routes and are confirmed without change. These include: average boardings per hour greater than 60 ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 17

21 average hourly trips greater than 50 passengers at the peak point individual trips greater than 55 at the peak point more than 50 passengers at the peak point on consecutive trips For express and school trips, the upper threshold is established as 110 percent of seated capacity. While there is no change to the existing high demand threshold, several routes currently exceed these thresholds but have not been addressed due to budget restrictions. The cost of the required increases are approximately 25 vehicles and 30,000 annual hours of service, however, the cost of these increases has been addressed in the Planned Growth requirements. On-time Performance On-time performance is an important aspect of an attractive and reliable system. Current ETS practice has established on-time performance for arrival times at major transit centers, from five minutes early to one minute late on 90 percent of trips. The revised standard maintains this practice and adds a departure standard for key timing points along the routes: from zero minutes early to three minutes late. Currently, ETS has insufficient data to effectively monitor and respond to these standard requirements. However, once the recommended automatic passenger count equipment is deployed, this data deficiency will be addressed. While ridership increases are expected from improved on-time performance, none have been included in the ridership and revenue estimates because of the uncertainty level. However, this measure will almost certainly have positive ridership impacts, and improve the overall financial and ridership performance of the system. Service Implementation Staging ETS current practice establishes thresholds for the introduction of service into new communities and development areas. This follows industry practice, but to further support ridership growth and promote transit travel to and from both residential and employment areas, these standards have been relaxed in the proposed framework. Lower thresholds will allow earlier introduction of service into these communities and the use of small buses will complement early introduction. Another recommended change eliminates the detailed staging of off-peak services. In current ETS and common industry practice, implementation of new periods of off-peak service, such as weeknights or weekends, is based on the performance of other periods. For example, the introduction of weekend service might be based on the performance of weekday midday service. This staging framework serves to delay the introduction of services, and is based on a rationale that is increasingly less relevant in today s transit environment. Accordingly, the recommended staging plan is to introduce off-peak services in all periods, once warranted. For industrial areas specifically, the recommended standard also includes limited offpeak service with the introduction of peak services in these areas, to ensure flexibility and choice for employees. For monitoring purposes, the recommended standards are ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 18

22 20 boardings per vehicle-hour in peak periods and 15 boardings per hour in all other periods Implications and Sensitivity The combined service standards measures do not have a significant capital cost, since most impacts are focussed in the off-peak periods. Four small buses, at a cost of approximately $800,000 are included for expansion of the community bus service to meet standards requirements, over and above the requirements addressed by the Planned Growth estimates. Operating costs are expected to increase by approximately 125,000 vehicle-hours, at an annual cost of about $8.7 million. Over the life of the five-year plan, ridership is expected to grow about 1.2 million rides annually, with estimated revenue of about $1.6 million. This will increase rides per capita (over and above the existing growth accommodation described in the next section), and have a very small negative influence on cost recovery. If the increase in ridership was approximately 400,000 rides higher, the impact on cost recovery would be neutral. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 19

23 5. Strategies for Ridership Growth in Edmonton The recommended ridership growth strategy for Edmonton Transit Service has four main elements: The recommended service standards framework to guide service development and monitoring. These service standards provide a monitoring framework for future growth of the system, ensuring that the system responds to population growth (coverage standards), provides effective service (span and frequency standards), and meets community standards in terms of service and affordability (performance monitoring guidelines). Service strategies to improve travel opportunities. The market assessment identified existing and emerging gaps in the service, and the strategy includes some specific proposals to address these. These include improved corridor services, improved services in industrial areas, improved night service levels to 2 am, enhanced LRT feeder services and services tailored to specific travel markets. Support strategies to improve service delivery and promote ridership growth. Simply providing a network of bus services cannot be expected to provide a level of service that is competitive with the automobile. The network must be supported by a range of measures, often not within the control of the transit service. These include land use patterns and development structures including limits to sprawl generally, and specific developments that promote reduced travel and increased transit use. Fleet and infrastructure requirements. 5.1 Increased Service Levels Description One of the most effective measures for increasing ridership in the ETS system is to increase service frequency, particularly on key routes. Higher frequency makes service more attractive by increasing travel options, reducing waiting times, and reducing trip planning. Generally, peak frequencies of 10 minutes or less are expected to achieve each of these benefits. In off-peak periods, when passenger demand cannot be generally expected to support these service levels, a 15-minute service is considered ideal for planning purposes. Increasing service levels on the major routes to this range of frequencies (where they are not already at that level), can be expected to have a significant effect on the overall system, and drive ridership growth on other supporting routes. The recommended strategy for general service increases includes: service interval targets of 10 minutes in peaks and 15 minutes in all other periods for the major routes ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 20

24 a general increase of 20 percent of service in peaks, and 10 percent in off-peaks for the balance of the system Additional detailed analysis will be required to identify those routes where the service increase will be most effective Implications and Sensitivity Based on the parameters described, ETS will require approximately 60 vehicles for service, plus approximately 12 spare vehicles. This complement should comprise a mix of 40-foot vehicles and larger articulated vehicles. Service requirements for this increases the amount to approximately 300,000 hours of service, at a cost of approximately $21 million. Conservatively, ridership resulting from this service increase is estimated at approximately 7.5 million rides, or about 12 percent of the existing ridership, with revenue of about $10 million. At this level, rides per capita will be increased, and cost recovery should increase slightly less than one-half of one percentage point. These estimates include a factor to account for potential duplication with the proposed growth-related increases, pending more detailed analysis. In the existing analysis, this factor is set at 80 percent, reflecting an assumption that about 20 percent of the service increases will be accomplished through the implementation of he existing growth plan. Ridership estimates for these increases are based on conservative estimates of increases based on the performance of the existing routes. Reasonably, these ridership increases could be 15 percent higher in the peak, and 10 percent higher in the off-peak, which would increase ridership increases to almost 9 million rides, with revenue in excess of $11 million. Impact on cost recovery would be in excess of three-quarters of one percentage point. 5.2 South LRT Extension Support Services Description The south LRT extension currently under construction, is planned to be complete to South Campus by spring 2009 and to Century Park (23 Avenue) by spring Future extensions to the Ellerslie Road area and beyond are also planned. Introduction of LRT service to this area represents a significant investment in transit in this area, and will both support and be supported by growth in employment, population and post-secondary institutions in this area. As part of this analysis, the proposed support and feeder routes were examined to determine the most effective option for serving LRT stations. These options included modifying routes to eliminate duplication with LRT and feed stations, a similar realignment with increased service frequency, and a revised shuttle feeder concept. The analysis concluded that the route modifications were appropriate and effective in terms of route pattern, but both the LRT and the broader network would benefit if these routes were operated with higher frequencies in both peaks and off-peak periods. This will accommodate the projected ridership growth, provide an alternative to a portion of the park-and-ride demand, improve convenience with decreased wait times, and improve connections to other areas not served by the LRT. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 21

25 In combination with the network structure adjustment, the alternative feeder concept was rejected, since it would have broad network implications. As an alternative, a different shuttle concept is recommended, to supplement feeder services in neighbourhood areas. This includes the use of small buses, and short direct rides from neighbourhood areas to the LRT, to attract a portion of the market that is reluctant to use regular route transit to access the preferred LRT. Four test applications are recommended, with specific details to be determined. If successful, these shuttles could be expanded to other stations, and possibly integrated with other local route services to effectively serve neighbourhoods Implications and Sensitivity The cost of rationalizing routes to feed the LRT and increase service levels on these routes is accounted for in other measures. The projected savings from the elimination of duplication for travel covered by the LRT and the general service increases recommended for the network accounts for both the ridership and revenue from these services. For the shuttle tests, the acquisition of four small vehicles is recommended, with an expected expenditure of $800,000 and operating costs of approximately $650,000 with about 10,000 additional annual hours. These services are estimated to attract approximately 270,000 new rides with revenue estimates of about $350,000. If these services were to attract ridership at about the system average, the new ridership would be approximately 330,000 rides with revenue of approximately $440,000. Though small due to the limited nature of the test, the impact on all performance measures is positive. 5.3 Industrial Area Services Description Description Lack of effective service to major industrial areas, and the desire for increased support for industrial employment trips generally was consistently raised throughout the consultation process. Recommended service standards reflect lower performance thresholds for these services to allow expanded service, and recognition of the need for off-peak service also led to the development of specific service proposals. Increased service levels will support better service to employment areas in peak periods. This proposal looks specifically at off-peak services, and how to effectively and affordably increase services in major industrial areas. Using the Northwest Industrial Area as a prototype, off-peak service proposals were developed to provide increased service. These proposals use small buses, provide direct connections to nearby transit centers, and provide a consistent 30-minute service throughout the off-peak periods. Off-peak shuttles are recommended for the Northwest Industrial Area, including both north and south of Yellowhead Trail, the South Industrial Area and the Southeast Industrial Area. Based on the performance of these, increased services in these areas or expansion to other areas can be assessed and implemented where warranted. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 22

26 5.3.2 Implications and Sensitivity Based on the concepts developed for the Northwest Industrial Area, implementation of initial shuttles in four areas will require 10 small buses at a cost of approximately $2 million. Operating costs, based on about 17,000 annual service hours are estimated to be approximately $1.1 million annually. These services are expected to generate between 225,000 and 275,000 off-peak rides, with revenue of approximately $300,000 to $375,000. Like other off-peak service expansions, these proposals increase off-peak ridership and provide crucial employment support while having a downward influence on efficiency and financial indicators. In addition to conservative ridership estimates, no allowance has been made in the ridership and revenue estimates for increased peak ridership resulting from the improved attractiveness of service to these areas with expanded peak services. 5.4 Key Corridor Connections Description As described earlier, the market assessment identified key corridors where service improvements are warranted to capture a larger share of the overall travel market, and address current deficiencies. Three of these corridors, west from downtown to west Edmonton, north along 97 Street, and from Mill Woods to downtown through the Connors Road corridor, have been identified by staff and are confirmed as part of this analysis. The recommended growth plan and the recommended service increase plan addresses the resources required to better serve these corridors. In addition to these corridors, the analysis identified a need for improved connections in north Edmonton from east to west, including connections to the Northwest Industrial Area, and in the south, from east to west, particularly as the South LRT opens and growth in this area continues. Two proposals were developed to address these links. In the north, the service proposal includes a new route from Clareview to West Edmonton Mall via 137 Avenue, combined with extensions and service improvements to Route 127 in the 111 Avenue corridor. Both corridors are top candidates for transit priority improvements to improve travel speed and reliability. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 23

27 In the south, three new routes are proposed, including some integration with existing services, to improve LRT connections (particularly following the opening of the SLRT to Century Park at 23 Avenue), and to improve residential-commercial-industrial connections in this area. These proposals also include improved service in the 50 th Street corridor, supported by transit and signal priority measures to address expected operational difficulties in this busy corridor. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 24

28 5.4.2 Implications and Sensitivity The vehicle requirements for the north Edmonton proposal are partially addressed by the Planned Growth estimates, but five additional vehicles will be required, at a cost of about $2 million. Operating costs for this proposal, in addition to existing service, are estimated at approximately $1.6 million, based on about 22,000 annual hours of service. New ridership is estimated at about 340,000 to 375,000 new rides, with estimated revenue ranging from about $450,000 to $500,000. This would result in improved performance against all system indicators, including a slight upward influence on cost recovery. For the south Edmonton proposal, capital costs include 12 additional vehicles at a cost of about $4.8 million, including the potential to integrate some existing service into the plan. Operating costs for this proposal, in addition to existing service, are estimated at approximately $2.9 million, based on about 42,000 annual hours of service. New ridership is estimated to range from 1.2 million to 1.5 million, with estimated revenue of about $1.6 million to $2.0 million. This would result in improved performance against all system indicators, including an increase of at least 2 percent in system ridership and an increase in cost recovery of about one-third of one percentage point. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 25

29 5.5 Transit Priority Description Over the past several years, the transit industry in North America, based on extensive research and testing, has come to understand that transit customers value overall trip time very highly in their decision to use transit, and that service frequency and the elimination of travel delays make a significant contribution to the attractiveness of transit services. To increase travel speed, both in real and perceived terms, transit systems have implemented a variety of express services to eliminate passenger service delays, and implemented a variety of traffic control measures to attempt to give transit vehicles some priority in the road network. Typically these measures include signal priority and dedicated bus lanes, and, ideally, a combination of the two. Where dedicated bus lanes are used to avoid traffic congestion and signal priority is used to reduce or eliminate intersection delay, increases in travel speed can be dramatic, with corresponding increases in ridership. ETS and the City of Edmonton have developed several transit priority initiatives over the past several years, including the development of a transit signal priority system, giving signal priority to transit vehicles at selected locations, as well as dedicated road facilities for transit vehicles to avoid congested areas. For the most part, these installations have been somewhat piecemeal in the past, and represented somewhat isolated efforts to deal with individual problem areas. Currently, dedicated bus lanes are typically short sections of roadway to facilitate access to transit centers or turning movements, and transit signal priority relies on stop bar detection, reducing the opportunity of pre-emptive control. In the past year, ETS staff have worked to increase the extent of the network over the next one to three years. ENTRA recommends the continued expansion of these initiatives into an ultimate full network covering major east-west and north-south corridors throughout the city, supporting the LRT and improving travel convenience in other quadrants of the city. This full network concept is not achievable or practical in the five-year timeframe, but clear initial steps are important to the overall promotion of ridership growth, and give transit riders enhanced travel options throughout the city. The ultimate priority network is intended to provide an overall grid of transit services in major corridors not necessarily on specific routes, so that all routes using the corridor benefit. Transit priority elements include transit signal priority and the introduction, where possible, of dedicated lanes. Dedicated lanes are most useful at and near congested intersections, to work in concert with the transit signal priority system by giving the transit vehicle the opportunity to by-pass the traffic queue at the intersection and proceed directly to the stop area. For this reason, these short lanes at intersections are often referred to as queue jump lanes, or simply, Q-jumps. Transit signal priority systems can typically be installed throughout the corridor, since they do not rely on expanded right-of-way or construction. While their effectiveness is reduced somewhat without dedicated lanes, testing in other cities such as Calgary and Toronto has indicated that they can still be very effective, and move all of the mainline ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 26

30 traffic more effectively, with minimal or no effect on cross-street traffic. The most effective system rely on upstream detection, where vehicles are detected 300 to 400 metres upstream, giving the signal controller time to adjust signal phasing prior to the vehicle s arrival at the intersection, with an algorithm determining whether to extend mainline green or truncate cross-street red signals to optimize the buses travel through the intersection. Even without dedicated lanes, these systems can be used to extend green phases to clear a queue from the intersection in front of the bus. For the five-year plan, it is important for ETS and the City to concentrate on key corridors, and other critical bottlenecks as an initial step towards the full priority network. These include the key corridors between downtown and West Edmonton Mall, Mill Woods and north Edmonton via 97 Street. Other key bottlenecks and intersection locations should be identified on the basis of travel delay, passenger demand and improvement potential Implications and Sensitivity Transit signal priority costs include on-board detection equipment, at about $1,000 per vehicle, plus intersection and signal upgrades, at up to $250,000 per intersection. Longer bus lane costs cannot be generalized because of the site-specific factors. Capital cost requirements for these improvements have been established on a budget basis, reflecting the on-going development plan for the network beyond the timeframe of this plan. This includes $200,000 to equip the necessary fleet with required on-board equipment, and annual amounts of $650,000 for signal equipment upgrades and $3 million of intersection upgrades. This would permit the introduction of transit signal priority at no fewer than 12 intersections per year. Operating costs for the transit signal priority system include system operating costs and offsetting reductions in vehicle operating costs, since similar service levels can be achieved with fewer vehicles as travel speeds increase. These travel time reductions are estimated to result in a net operating cost savings of up to $3 million annually, resulting in a very effective payback on the capital investment. In terms of ridership, the benefits are difficult to estimate without detailed assessment of each route and intersection. However, the estimated travel time savings represents between 10 and 15 percent of the travel time, with capital improvements implemented. This reduction in travel time could result in a 4 to 6 percent increase in ridership on the affected routes. For example in the 97 Street corridor, with approximately 18,000 daily boardings in peak periods alone, this could would represent an average of about 1,000 daily boardings, or about 165,000 annual new revenue trips, with revenue of about $240,000 annually in this corridor alone. Similar results in the other corridors can be expected, and if achieved, could increase cost recovery system-wide by close to at least one-half of one percentage point. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 27

31 6. Planning Process Review 6.1 Rationale The planning process review was completed to ensure that ETS is properly equipped with analysis tools, techniques and data requirements to ensure the most effective and efficient deployment of service, and that committees and council receive accurate information, at the appropriate level, to facilitate effective decision-making. 6.2 Recommendations Planning Framework Based on the overall elements of a preferred planning framework, and the current practice at ETS, ENTRA has made the following observations. There is good compliance with desired principles related to planning process Service Standards the proposed service standards should be specifically endorsed by council, and communicated to the public Service Assessment and Reporting ETS currently uses a comprehensive planning approach that could be enhanced through improvements in the data collection process. Additional elements could include: Standardized quarterly reports to TPW, comprising ridership and revenue results, cost and revenue variance reporting, rolling 12-month summaries and reporting on emergent planning issues, identifying issues proactively. Annual reports to TPW, in the spring of each year, providing the results of the annual service review, summary of performance indicators and planning and other initiatives being considered. In a growth environment ETS would benefit from an expanded contingency budget, allowing a more flexible response to on-going ridership growth and service development. Currently set at 100 weekly hours and two buses per year, consideration should be given to increasing this to at least 150 weekly hours per year, and four buses. Budget review period is inappropriate time for reporting and assessment on technical issues; budget request should be based on on-going assessment and reporting, and culmination of annual reporting process A Consistent Performance Standard For this purpose, ENTRA recommends that ETS continue to evaluate its services primarily on the basis of total boardings per vehicle-hour, with limited exceptions such as express trips, school trips and customized services, which are assessed on the basis of passengers per trip, as described in the service standards. It is important to assess boardings, or unlinked trips, so that routes that perform a high ratio transfer role are properly credited for that performance. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 28

32 6.2.3 Performance Measures and Reporting Performance Measures The recommended performance indicators include: amount of service, measured by hours per capita (annual report and budgetting) service utilization, measured by passengers per capita (annual report and budgetting) efficiency, measured by boardings per vehicle-hour and passengers per vehicle-hour financial monitoring, measured by cost per passenger and cost recovery ratio. The emphasis on performance measurement in the public sector carries with it the risk that the process becomes an end in itself. It is important that organizations do not lose sight of the fundamental objectives of performance measurement: improved transit service performance measurement is one essential element secure continuous improvement in service improved accountability - clarifying the outputs and outcomes that are expected and achieved for the resources used, for improved communication and decision-making Reporting Frequency Quarterly Quarterly reports to TPW should include: Standardized monthly report, as noted in previous section Summary report on planned changes for upcoming sign-up (major enhancements or reductions) Annual Annual reports to TPW should include: Standardized monthly report, as noted in previous section Summary report on planned changes for upcoming sign-up (major enhancements or reductions) Overall boarding per vehicle hour, measuring change over previous year ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 29

33 7. Five-Year Resource Requirements 7.1 Capital and Operating Costs Figure 1, Figure 2 and Figure 3 show the five-year financial forecast for the proposed plan, based on the higher estimates of ridership and revenue described in the sensitivity analysis. More detailed breakdowns of these tables are included in the appendix. Figure 4 shows the calculated performance indicators, based on this five-year financial projection. As shown in Figure 1, the total capital investment for all elements of the plan is approximately $270 million over five years, of which approximately $95 million, or about one-third of the costs, is attributable to the current growth plan based on existing policies. The cost of designing and constructing a new garage also accounts for more than one-third of the projected capital costs. The need for this garage is advanced by the proposed ridership growth strategy, but this facility would still be required in the future. The remaining capital cost directly related to the elements of the ridership growth strategy is about $72 million or about 26 percent of the total. Figure 4 shows the calculated performance indicators based on the projected ridership, revenue and operating cost data. These indicators show an increase in cost recovery rate of more than two points, and an increase in rides per capita from just less than 80 to just less than 100 rides per capita. Because of the focus on off-peak service increases, total boardings per vehicle-hour decrease slightly. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 30

34 Figure 1 Five-Year Capital Cost Requirements ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 31

35 As shown in Figure 2, the total operating cost for all elements of the plan is approximately $70 million dollars by the end of five years, with increases ranging from about $11 million to about $16 million per year. Of this amount, approximately $38 million, or more than one-half of the costs, is attributable to the current growth plan based on existing policies. ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 32 Figure 2 Five-Year Operating Cost Requirements

36 Figure 3 Five-Year Ridership and Revenue Estimates ENTRA Consultants 5/22/08 Page 33

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