3.0 Future Conditions

Transcription

1 3.0 Future Conditions In order to be able to recommend appropriate improvements to the transportation system of the Town, it is important to first understand the nature and volume of traffic that is expected to occur. This information is built upon an understanding of existing traffic volumes and travel patterns, as presented in Chapter 2. The most common method of analyzing future traffic conditions is to utilize a travel demand model that forecasts traffic growth based on anticipated land use (household and employment) changes. A travel demand model uses land use forecasts to estimate vehicular traffic origin and destination patterns. The model assigns traffic to routes within the street network by estimating travel times (the trip length between its origin and destination divided by speed) and by factoring in street capacities and potential congestion. The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) maintains a regional travel demand model that is used to forecast travel growth trends within the Denver metropolitan area. The DRCOG model includes a large database of land use and street network information for DRCOG s eight county region. This model was used by Douglas County when developing their county wide model for the 2030 Douglas County Transportation Plan. This model differed from DRCOG s model in that its street network and land use information was more refined and specific to the Douglas County area. The Town of Castle Rock was given permission by the County to use its model as the basis for the Castle Rock model. Just as the DRCOG model was refined for Douglas County s use, the land use and street network information from the Douglas County model was refined for Castle Rock s travel demand model. This Castle Rock model was then used to forecast traffic growth and congestion within the Town for the years 2020 and It was also used to test various combinations of transportation projects to determine if they would improve traffic flow and help reduce roadway congestion. Travel Demand Model Household and Employment Projected Growth Figure 3 1 shows the household and employment data for the area included in the Castle Rock model. In 2010 there were approximately 26,000 households and 14,000 employees within the Castle Rock travel demand area. The total number of households is forecasted to grow 17 percent by year 2020 and 35 percent by year Employment is forecasted to grow at approximately three times the rate of household growth. By 2020, employment is expected to grow by 53 percent. By 2030 approximately 27,000 jobs are forecasted to be within the travel demand area, a 95 % increase over the 2010 total. Figure 3 1: Household and Population Growth in the Castle Rock Travel Demand Area (includes TAZ data beyond Town limits) Future Conditions 26

2 Traffic Analysis Zones The DRCOG model divides the entire metropolitan area into traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Figure 3 2 shows the arrangement of the TAZs within the Town of Castle Rock. In order to be able to incorporate data from the DRCOG and the Douglas County models, the TAZ structure within the Town was not changed. The TAZ boundaries are generally defined by neighborhood areas, geographic features and major streets. Although the entire area of each TAZ used in the Castle Rock model may not be within the Town limits, the traffic generated by the zones will generally be using the Town s street system. Figure 3 2: Castle Rock Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Future Conditions 27

3 Year 2020 Future Conditions Household and Employment Growth Figure 3 3 highlights, by TAZ, the geographic areas of Town where household growth is expected to occur between the years 2010 and The areas of highest household growth are expected to occur within the Meadows/Red Hawk and Castle Oaks subdivisions and within the TAZ that is near the future Dawson Ridge development. A large amount of residential growth will also happen in the Castle Pines area, north of Castle Rock and west of I 25. While not within the Town boundaries, traffic from the Castle Pines area is often directed to and from the Town. Castle Pines Meadows / Red Hawk Castle Oaks Dawson Ridge Figure 3 3: Household Growth by Traffic Analysis Zone ( ) Future Conditions 28

4 Figure 3 4 shows that the greatest employment growth is expected to take place in the northwest section of the Town, within the areas near the Outlet Mall and the Centura Hospital. The Castle Meadows area, west of I 25 and to both the north and south of Plum Creek Parkway, is also expected to experience significant job growth over the next decade. Outlet Mall Centura Hospital Castle Meadows Figure 3 4: Employment Growth by Traffic Analysis Zone ( ) Future Conditions 29

5 The table below shows the overall increase in numbers of single family households and square footages of retail, industrial and office space that are expected to occur. Land Use Single Family Residences Retail Square Footage Industrial Office Space Office Square Footage Change 3,325 units 656,000 SF 265,000 SF 1,604,000 SF Street Network Used as the Base Condition for the 2020 Model The existing street network along with the North Meadows Extension became the 2020 Model Base Condition. This was used to forecast traffic volumes in 2020 and to test the effectiveness of the street improvements that could be completed during the time frame. The North Meadows Extension Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) was completed in 2010 followed by a Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) that was signed by CDOT and FHWA. The EIS and FONSI provide the necessary federal level environmental clearance for the project to move forward. Town Council has decided that completing this project is the top transportation priority for the Town; therefore it was assumed that the North Meadows Extension project would be completed by year 2020 and should be considered a part of the Base Condition. Projected 2020 Traffic Volumes and System Congestion Using the 2020 land use projections and the assumed 2020 street network, the model calculated the projected traffic volumes on the major street system. Figure 3 5 shows the 2020 Traffic Volumes. The primary change in travel patterns expected to occur is in the northwest area of Town as traffic shifts from Meadows Parkway to the North Meadows Extension. For example, without the North Meadows Extension, traffic on Meadows Parkway would have been approximately 36,000 vehicles per day (vpd), but with the opening of North Meadows Extension traffic on Meadows Parkway is expected to be approximately 22,000 vpd in North Meadows Extension will carry approximately 25,000 vpd in year A significant amount of the new traffic, created by housing development within The Meadows neighborhood and from the additional employment at the nearby Centura Hospital, will use the new road. The chart below shows estimated traffic changes on other major roadways: Future Conditions 30

6 Figure 3 5: Estimated Year 2020 Traffic Volumes using the Base Condition Street Network The changes in traffic volumes shown above are not just due to the growth in population and employment and by the completion of the North Meadows Extension project. They are also due to shifts in travel patterns created by the opening of the new sections of Plum Creek Parkway to the east and west of I 25 and by the reconstruction of the I 25/Plum Creek interchange. Comparing the levels of congestion in 2010 to those in Figure 3 6 shows congestion continuing to increase in parts of the system while decreasing in others. The decreases are primarily due to the opening of the North Meadows Extension project. While some of the streets, such as Gilbert Street, Prairie Hawk Drive and the southerly section of Founder s Parkway will be experiencing moderate congestion, others, such as sections of the Founder s Parkway east of the I 25 interchange, Meadows Future Conditions 31

7 Parkway west of the interchange, Crowfoot Road, 5 th Street east of Perry, Wilcox Street and Perry Street, will see congestion increase from moderate to heavy levels (refer back to Page 13 for a description of levels of congestion). Figure 3 6: Estimated 2020 PM Peak Hour Congestion using the Base Condition Street Network Future Conditions 32

8 2020 Base + Selected Street Network Modifications Following the analysis using the assumed 2020 Base Street Network, four street projects were then added to the network to see what changes in traffic volumes they would produce. Although these aren t necessarily the most needed projects within the Town, they are the most likely projects to be completed within the next 10 years as they will be either entirely, or at least primarily, funded by adjacent development and not by the Town. They are also the projects that have the most ability to improve fire/police response and enhance economic development opportunities. These projects are: Meadows Boulevard addition of 2 lanes between Coachline Road and Meadows Parkway Woodlands Boulevard construction of the section between Black Feather Trail and Scott Blvd. Prairie Hawk Drive extension of Prairie Hawk Drive from Wolfensberger Road to Plum Creek Parkway The extension of Liggett Road from where it crosses I 25, to the north end of Caprice St., will be almost entirely funded by the Town. This project will also improve emergency response and economic development opportunities in the area Traffic Volume and Congestion Changes Base Condition + Selected Projects The following text and maps show the location of the projects and describe the changes in traffic flow that they are expected to produce: Meadows Boulevard Widening Two additional lanes on Meadows Boulevard Funded entirely by development Relieves congestion at intersections between Coachline Road and Prairie Hawk Drive Relieves congestion at the intersection of Meadows Boulevard and Prairie Hawk Drive Will be constructed when certain development thresholds are met Woodlands Boulevard Missing Link Initially two lanes are expected to be built with the other two being built as traffic volumes warrant Provides additional north south access Reduces traffic on Front Street, Scott Boulevard and Founders Parkway Improves emergency access to large residential neighborhoods Opens significant parcels of property for development. At least 50% of the funding will come from adjacent developments Future Conditions 33

9 Liggett Road Extension Extends Liggett Road from where it crosses I 25 to the north end of Caprice Street Will be primarily funded by the Town Produces minor reductions in traffic volumes on Prairie Hawk Drive, Black Feather Trail and the southerly sections of Front Street Will increase traffic on the existing section of Liggett Road Improves access into the commercial and industrial areas along Caprice Street and Wolfensberger Road. Provides additional direct access into the downtown from residential areas along SH 85 Needed by the Town for the relocation and consolidation of their Public Works, Parks and Utilities maintenance facilities Prairie Hawk Drive Extension South of Wolfensberger Road Provides a two lane minor arterial between Wolfensberger Road and Plum Creek Parkway Utilizes portions of Atchison Way from Prairie Hawk Drive to Topeka Way Allows for the development of commercial and industrial zoned properties Approximately 75% of the project will be funded by development Town will fund any necessary reconstruction of Atchison Way Reduces traffic volumes on Wolfensberger Road and Coachline Road Provides additional access between the I 25/Plum Creek Parkway interchange and The Meadows Figures 3 7 and 3 8 show the estimated 2020 daily traffic volumes and the PM peak hour congestion that result in the major street network when these four projects are added to the 2020 base street network. While the projects do produce some minor shifts in traffic volumes, they have little impact on the overall level of congestion throughout the network. These projects primarily improve emergency access, open up areas of the Town for development and help complete the basic framework of the overall street system. Future Conditions 34

10 Figure 3 7: Estimated 2020 Traffic Volumes when Selected Projects are Added to the 2020 Base Street Network Future Conditions 35

11 Figure 3 8: Estimated 2020 PM Peak Hour Congestion Levels when Selected Projects are Added to the 2020 Base Street Network Future Conditions 36

12 Year 2030 Future Conditions Household and Employment Growth Between the years 2020 and 2030, the following increases are expected to occur in the number of single family households and in the square footages of retail, industrial and office space. Estimates of growth were obtained from the Town s Development Services Department and from a financial study presently underway through the Finance Department. As with the 2020 analysis, the expected growth in each of the categories was then assigned to the TAZ map used by the traffic model and this was used to estimate the growth in traffic volumes between the years 2020 and Land Use Single Family Residences Retail Square Footage Industrial Office Space Office Square Footage Change 4,650 units 407,000 SF 165,000 SF 994,000 SF The largest amount of residential growth is expected to occur in The Meadows and Red Hawk neighborhoods and in the southern areas of the Town, especially in and around Crystal Valley Ranch. The largest amount of growth in commercial, industrial and office space is expected to occur in Castle Meadows and in the southwest portion of the Town. The Assumed 2030 Base Street Network The model used to estimate traffic in 2030 includes the 2020 base network, the four projects discussed in the previous section and the I 25/Crystal Valley/Dawson Ridge interchange. This new interchange will be located approximately 2 miles south of the I 25/Plum Creek interchange. This interchange will be constructed as part of the developments planned in the southwest quadrant of the Town Traffic Volume and Congestion Changes Base Condition Using the assumed 2030 Base Street Network, traffic estimates for Year 2030 were prepared. While the additional developments increased traffic volumes, the opening of the new interchange created significant shifts in traffic within the southern parts of the Town. Crystal Valley Parkway traffic is expected to increase from approximately 2,000 vpd to almost 10,000 vpd. The chart below shows the traffic growth expected to occur between 2020 and 2030 on other major streets. Figure 3 9 shows the projected traffic volumes in 2030 and Figure 3 10 shows the estimated levels of congestion. Future Conditions 37

13 Figure 3 9: Estimated 2030 Traffic Volumes when the Interchange and the Selected Projects are Added to the Base Street Network Future Conditions 38

14 Figure 3 10: Estimated 2030 PM Peak Hour Congestion Levels when the Interchange and the Selected Projects are Added to the Base Street Network Future Conditions 39

15 2030 Base Street Network With Selected Street Projects Added Following the analysis of the 2030 Base conditions, selected projects were then added into the 2030 model to test their ability to relieve traffic congestion and improve traffic circulation within the Town. The following projects were added to the model: Crowfoot Valley Road widen from 2 to 4 lanes, between Founders Parkway and Stroh Road in Parker, CO. Castle Oaks Drive complete 2 lane collector from Founder s Parkway to SH 83 Prairie Hawk Drive roadway improvements, between Wolfensberger Rd and Meadows Pkwy New north south road, adjacent to East Plum Creek construct a new roadway between Meadows Parkway and the Liggett Rd. extension Liggett Road widen from 2 to 4 lanes, between Black Feather Trail and the I 25 bridge Wolfensberger Road widen from 2 to 4 lanes, between Coachline Road and Prairie Hawk Dr. 5 th Street widen from 2 to 4 lanes, between Woodlands Boulevard and Founders Pkwy Ridge Road widen from 2 to 4 lanes, between Plum Creek Parkway and Fifth Street Valley Drive construct a 2 lane road between South Street and the north end of S. Valley Dr. I 25 West Frontage Road relocate the frontage roadway west of the BNSF RR tracks, between Plum Creek Parkway and the Crystal Valley/Dawson Ridge interchange. Two lanes of the relocated frontage road will be constructed initially. The frontage road will eventually be expanded to four lanes when demand increases. Perry Street extend the existing 2 lane collector to the I 25 East Frontage Road Plum Creek Parkway widen from 2 to 4 lanes, between Ridge Rd. and Gilbert St. Plum Creek Parkway widen from 2 to 4 lanes, between I 25 and Wolfensberger Rd Traffic Volume and Congestion Changes 2030 Base Street Network + Selected Projects This new model basically describes the Town s street network when it is fully built out. The following maps and text describe these projects and the improvements that they are expected to produce. Additional detail for each of these projects is included under Major Project Descriptions in Section 4. Crowfoot Valley Road Widening Construct additional 2 lanes from Founder s Parkway to Stroh Road The section from Founder s Parkway to Sapphire Pointe Blvd. is in the Town Approximately 50% of the funding for the Town portion will come from the adjacent developments Will relieve congestion along Crowfoot Valley Road and at the Founder s Pkwy. intersection Will improve emergency response Will include needed bicycle and pedestrian connections to the northeast area of Town Future Conditions 40

16 Castle Oaks Drive Provides a paved connection to the developments on the far eastern side of Town Improves emergency response times Reduces Town roadway maintenance requirements Improves air quality by eliminating dust from the gravel roadway Encourages residents to come into Castle Rock for their goods and services Primarily funded by adjacent development New North South Road Provides an additional north south connection between Meadows Parkway and the Wolfensberger Road businesses area Opens property for development Will serve the proposed Town maintenance facility May eliminate the need for 1 2 at grade railroad crossings Will have only minor impacts on traffic circulation Will improve access to the East Plum Creek Trail Funded primarily by the Town Liggett Road Widening Will support development of properties along Liggett Road Project will primarily be funded by developments Will improve access to the proposed Town maintenance facility south of the Liggett Road/I 25 bridge Future Conditions 41

17 Wolfensberger Road Widening Reduces congestion along Wolfensberger Road and at the Prairie Hawk and Coachline intersections Provides needed pedestrian and bicycle connections between the downtown area and Coachline Road Supports proposed developments along Wolfensberger Primarily funded by the Town although there will be some funding from the adjacent developments Prairie Hawk Drive Improvements Provides auxiliary left turn lanes at each intersection Provides needed bicycle and pedestrian connections Supports the medical and commercial areas in The Meadows Is part of a north south arterial from North Meadows Extension to Plum Creek Parkway Ridge Road Widening Is a segment of the 4 lane ring road that will eventually encircle the Town Relieves congestion on Ridge Road especially at the 5 th St./SH 86 intersection Improves access to the commercial area at the southeast corner of the Ridge Road/5 th Street intersection Will support the continuing development of the Founder s Village area Future Conditions 42

18 5 th Street Widening Reduces congestion along 5 th Street Improves safety by providing right and left turn lanes Provides needed pedestrian and bicycle connections into the downtown area Primarily funded by the Town Valley Drive Missing Link Completes Valley Drive between South Street and Plum Creek Parkway Will provide access to undeveloped areas along proposed route Improves emergency response by providing alternative route Reduces traffic on Gilbert Street Improves overall traffic circulation within the residential area Provides an additional north south route between 5 th St. and Plum Creek Parkway Will need to include traffic calming measures to protect the existing neighborhoods Primarily funded by the Town but will include some developer contributions I 25 West Frontage Road Relocates the road west of the BNSF RR tracks and eliminates 3 4 at grade railroad crossings Primarily funded by development in the southwest quadrant of the Town Funding may be available from the BNSF Necessary for the construction of the I 25 interchange at Crystal Valley/Dawson Ridge Opens the entire southwestern area for development Future Conditions 43

19 South Perry Street Extension Reduces congestion at the Plum Creek Parkway/Wilcox Street intersection Improves traffic operations near the I 25/ Plum Creek Parkway interchange Improves access to commercial, industrial and office space along Perry Street Provides another direct access into the downtown area from the south Supports the development of several properties along the I 25 East Frontage Road Funding for the project will be primarily from the Town, although the southerly section of the roadway may be completed by adjacent development Plum Creek Parkway Widening East Completes a section of the 4 lane ring road around the Town Primarily funded by the Town through developer contributions Supports the continued development of the southeast area Will improve access to the I 25/Plum Creek Parkway interchange from the eastern areas of Town Plum Creek Parkway Widening West Completes a section of the 4 lane ring road around the Town Primarily funded by the Town through developer contributions Supports the continued development of the southwest area of the Town Will improve access to the I 25/Plum Creek Pkwy. interchange from the western areas of the Town Figures 3 11 and 3 12 show the resulting 2030 traffic volumes and PM peak traffic congestion that can be expected once the projects are complete. Even with the expected development that will occur between 2020 and 2030, the PM peak hour congestion levels for the overall system has decreased. Future Conditions 44

20 Figure 3 11: Estimated 2030 Traffic Volumes Base Roadway Network + Selected Projects Future Conditions 45

21 Figure 3 12: 2030 PM Peak Hour Congestion Levels Base Roadway Network + Selected Projects Future Conditions 46