Enhancing Return on Investment for MnPASS Express Lanes

Transcription

1 Enhancing Return on Investment for MnPASS Express Lanes Minnesota s Transportation Conference February 28, 2018 mnpass.org

2 Agenda MnPASS Express Lane Background MnPASS System Update Enhancing Return on Investment for MnPASS Research Project 3/8/2018 Optional Tagline Goes Here mndot.gov/ 2

3 MnPASS Express Lane Background MnPASS = MN s system of priced managed lanes (a/k/a High Occupancy Toll Lanes) MnPASS lanes currently in operation in in in in operation: I-394 since 2005 I-35W since 2009 I-35E since 2015 MnPASS is a key strategy for improving the efficiency of the region s highway and transit systems by providing a reliable, congestion-free option for commuters during peak-travel times mnpass.org

4 What are the Benefits of MnPASS? MnPASS lanes reduce and better manage congestion in a manner that s sustainable over the long-term by: Increasing person throughput A single MnPASS lane can carry twice as many people as a single general purpose lane during peak-hour congestion Improving travel time reliability Transit buses and commuters can plan for and rely on a mph trip in a MnPASS lane (general purpose lanes are much less reliable) Improving bus transit service/ridership and increasing carpooling. More than 80% of the people using the MnPASS lanes are either riding on buses or in carpools

5 MnPASS System Study Phase 3 Study goals Assist in updating the MnPASS system vision and corridor prioritization in the 2018 Transportation Policy Plan Update Evaluate key MnPASS issues, opportunities, and risks from both a regional needs perspective and a national state-of-the-practice perspective Study did not reevaluate the current TPP Tier 1 and 2 MnPASS corridors Study results Higher performing corridors Hwy. 252/I-94 between Hwy. 610 in Brooklyn Center and downtown Mpls. I-494 in Bloomington between W. Bush Lk. Rd. and Hwy. 5 Moderate performing corridors Hwy. 77 Northbound (Apple Valley-Bloomington) Hwy. 169 (Shakopee-Golden Valley) I-35 Extension (Lakeville) 3/8/

6 MnPASS System in Draft TPP Update Tier 1 MnPASS Corridors (current revenue scenario) - I-35W (Roseville-Blaine) Fall 2018 letting - I-94 (Mpls.-St. Paul) part of Rethinking I-94 study funding identified in Tier 2 MnPASS Corridors (increased revenue scenario) - I-35W (Roseville-Mpls.) - Hwy. 36 EB (I-35W-I-35E) - Hwy. 252/I-94 (Brooklyn Park-Mpls) - I-494 (Bloomington) Tier 3 MnPASS Corridors (increased revenue scenario) - Hwy. 77 NB (Apple Valley-Bloomington) - Hwy. 169 (Shakopee-Maple Grove) - I-35 extension (Lakeville) - I-35E extension (Lino Lakes) - Hwy. 36 WB (I-35E-I35W) - I-694 (New Brighton-Brooklyn Center) - I-94 (Brooklyn Center-Rogers) 3/8/2018 6

7 Enhancing Return on Investment for MnPASS Express Lanes MnDOT Research Project ( ) Title: Refining Return on Investment Methodology/Tool for MnPASS Completed October 2017 Final Report available at: 3/8/2018 7

8 The Problem Traditional benefitcost approaches: Move more cars Increase speeds Reduce congestion MnPASS lanes are designed to: Move more people Provide a choice Improve reliability Research conducted to improve methods and tools for estimating return on investment

9 Study Process Following Steps Literature Search Agency Interviews Individual Component Review Model and Data Availability Assessment Framework Refinement Demonstration Analysis

10 Agency Staff Interviews Participants MnDOT Metro District MnDOT Central Office Metropolitan Council RTMC Discussion Questions Existing shortcomings Expectations for refined methodology Specific elements to be included Other economic factors Unique aspects of MnPASS

11 Managed Lanes ROI Inclusion Importance vs. Component Maturity

12 ROI Benefit Categories Travel Time Savings Vehicle Operating Cost Savings Crash Cost Savings Travel Time Reliability Transit Benefit Emergency Response Induced Traffic Emission Impact Noise Impact

13 Demonstration Project Lexington Avenue ~ 10.5 miles Hwy 36

14 Existing Conditions

15 Background Information The BCA was conducted to capture the forecasted changes of both base year 2010 and forecasting year 2040 Benefit Definition Travel time savings Vehicle operating cost savings Safety improvement Cost Estimation Capital costs Operation and maintenance costs Remaining capital value The preferred Build alternative was found to have a benefit-cost ratio of 2.11 from this analysis

16 Transit Benefits

17 Express Bus Service 1,500 Space Park & Ride DT Mpls

18 Transit Advantages No Build MnPASS Managed Lane Bus Shoulder

19 Transit Forecasts Traffic Forecasts CORSIM Models Bus Speeds Mixed Traffic Link Speeds BOS Managed Lane Bus Travel Times Ridership Forecasts Person Throughput

20 Existing Bus Shoulder Use SB: 95th Ave to CR E2 NB: CR E2 to TH 10 * GP speeds were estimated from CORSIM model. NB: Stinson to TH 280

21 2040 No Build Bus Shoulder Use SB: CSAH 23 to CR 10 NB: CR C to TH 10 * GP speeds were estimated from CORSIM model. NB: Stinson to TH 280

22 2040 Managed Lane Bus Shoulder Use Buses use managed lanes Buses use managed lanes * GP speeds were estimated from CORSIM model. NB: 4 th St to TH 280

23 Bus Travel Time CSAH 23 to Mississippi River Travel Time Three-hour peak period (min) AM PM Round Trip SB I-35W NB I-35W Total Travel Time Total Savings Bus GP* Bus GP* Bus GP* Two-Way 2040 No-Build MnPASS Build *GP = General Purpose Lanes

24 Ridership Forecasts Alternative Route 250 Route 252 Route 288 Total 2040 No-Build 3, , Build MnPASS 3, ,600

25 The Annual Transit Benefit Estimation - Year 2040 Measures 2040 No-Build 2040 Build Round Trip Transit Travel Time (hr) Round Trip Auto Travel Time (hr) Ridership 4,300 4,600 Auto (if no MnPASS) Total Travel Time (hr) 4,603 3,373 Value of Time ($/hr) $ $ Total Cost ($) $ 81,249 $ 59,539 Benefit ($) - $ 21,710 Annual Benefit ($) - $ 5,644,600

26 Travel Time Reliability

27 Reliability Evaluation Method 1. Collect 1 year of travel time data along project corridor 2. Obtain and integrate weather and crash data 3. Collect 1 year of travel time data in GP and MnPASS lanes along I-394 and I-35W South Capture relationship between GP and MnPASS lanes Project travel time savings for I-35W North MnPASS

28 Northbound - Existing

29 Northbound 2040 No Build

30 Northbound 2040 MnPASS MnPASS Lane

31 Reliability by Person Trips Peak Period/Peak Direction

32 Travel Time Reliability Measurement Methodology

33 Travel Time Reliability Calculation Results

34 Benefit-Cost Analysis Results

35 Benefit-Cost Analysis Results Positive Benefits by Category

36 Benefit-Cost Analysis Results

37 Comparison Analysis and Conclusion Category Original Framework Refined Framework Cost Component Capital Cost $169,466,823 $169,466,823 Operation and Maintenance Cost $20,848,172 $26,838,533 Remaining Capital Value -$35,522,760 -$35,522,760 Total Cost (2015$) $154,792,236 $160,782,596 Benefit Component Travel Time Savings (VHT) $368,122,531 $398,386,602* Vehicle Operating Cost (VMT) -$49,037,258 -$36,154,055* Crash Cost/Safety $6,766,596 $7,624,153* Travel Time Reliability $129,588,931 Transit Benefit $57,120,143 Induced Travel - Emergency Response $1,521,542 Emission Impact -$7,715,881 Noise Impact -$4,024,296 Total Benefit/Net Present Value (2015$) $325,851,870 $546,347,139 Benefit-Cost Ratio

38 Comparison Analysis and Conclusion Capture a wider range of project impacts in the alternative evaluation Improve the accuracy of the current MnPASS ROI methodology Improve the ability to verify the financial desirability of MnPASS alternatives Make project/alternative comparisons more comprehensive and consistent Provide better recommendations for practical investments

39 Thank you again! Brad Larsen Paul Morris John Wilson 39