Morningstar Investor Return

Transcription

1 Morningsar Invesor Reurn Morningsar Mehodology Paper March 3, Morningsar, Inc. All righs reserved. The informaion in his documen is he propery of Morningsar, Inc. Reproducion or ranscripion by any means, in whole or in par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied.

2 Inroducion Morningsar Invesor Reurn (also known as dollar-weighed reurn) measures how he average invesor fared in a fund over a period of ime. Invesor reurn incorporaes he impac of cash inflows and ouflows from purchases and sales and he growh in fund asses. A fund s published oal reurn reflecs a buy and hold sraegy. This informaion is widely available on fund family websies, in markeing maerial and from independen sources such as Morningsar. Bu, no all invesors buy and hold. Invesors move heir money in and ou of funds as hey search for he bes reurn. In conras o oal reurns, invesor reurns accoun for all cash flows ino and ou of he fund o measure how he average invesor performed over ime. Invesor reurn is calculaed in a similar manner as inernal rae of reurn. Invesor reurn measures he compound growh rae in he value of all dollars invesed in he fund over he evaluaion period. Invesor reurn is he growh rae ha will link he beginning oal ne asses plus all inermediae cash flows o he ending oal ne asses. Morningsar calculaes one, hree, five and 0-year railing and annual invesor reurns for openend muual funds and exchange-raded funds based in he Unied Saes. in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 2

3 Wha This Means for Invesors Invesor reurns end o be lower han oal reurns. This implies ha invesors end o ge ino funds a he wrong ime. Monhly Toal Reurn % Growh of $0,000 Toal Ne Asses $0,000 2,725,306,804 Jan 3.00% $0,00 2,873,44,236 Feb % $,023 3,230,68,07 Mar % $2,02 3,70,827,896 Apr % $,700 3,74,420,265 May % $,65 3,643,0,625 June % $2,973 4,526,497,48 July % $2,906 4,990,098,844 Aug % $4,7 6,28,743,3 Sep % $3,02 6,077,34,86 Oc % $2,606 6,202,659,084 Nov % $0,676 5,485,334,084 Dec % $0,360 5,502,824,03 The daa above is for a large growh fund. The ne asses grew rapidly o $6. billion in Augus. A his ime, an iniial invesmen of $0,000 would have grown o a high of $4,7. Since hen, he fund suffered consecuive monhs of losses in Sepember, Ocober, November and December. Bu, invesors coninued o pu money ino he fund. In Ocober, he fund hi is highes ne asses for he year a $6.2 billion hen hi is lowes monhly reurn of -5.32% he following monh. Invesors who purchased his fund in Augus did no have he same experience as hose who purchased he fund in January. An individual who bough he fund in January, held he fund unil he end of he year, reinvesed disribuions, and did no make any addiional purchases or sales would have received a oal reurn of 3.60%. In conras o oal reurns, invesor reurns measure he experience of he average invesor in a fund. I is no one specific invesor s experience, bu raher a measure of he average reurn on all dollars invesed. Invesor reurns place more weigh on he monhs wih higher asses. The invesor reurn for his fund, over his ime period, is -0.98%. in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 3

4 In many cases, poor invesor reurns can be aribued o invesor behavior. Invesors ofen suffer from poor iming and planning. Invesors know hey should hold a diversified porfolio, bu many chase pas performance and end up buying funds oo lae or selling oo soon. In addiion o revealing paerns of invesor behavior, invesor reurns can demonsrae how well fund families are preserving he invesor experience. Fund families have a responsibiliy o produce funds ha promoe sound invesmen sraegies. If hese fund families insead promoe rendy funds or shor-erm rading, hey are no looking ou for he invesor s long erm ineres. Fund families ha adverise shor-erm reurns and promoe high-risk funds will likely have funds wih low invesor reurns relaive o oal reurns. Invesor reurns are more valuable over longer ime periods and are more volaile for specialy funds. in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 4

5 Mehodology Morningsar calculaes invesor reurns in-house on a monhly basis using oal ne asses and reurns for differen ime periods. Cash Flows (monhs wih no disribuions) In order o calculae invesor reurns, Morningsar firs calculaes he monhly cash inflows or ouflows for each fund. The cash flow esimae for a monh (C) is simply he difference in beginning and ending oal ne asses (TNA) ha canno be explained by he monhly oal reurn (r). C TNA TNA ( + r ) = Cash Flows (monhs wih disribuions) If he above calculaion was used o calculae cash flows for monhs wih disribuions hen i would be assumed ha 00% of invesors reinvesed heir disribuions. By oversaing he reinvesmen raes, we would be underesimaing inflows by aribuing asse growh o reinvesmen raes raher han aribuing ha growh o ne new flows. In monhs were here is a disribuion Morningsar adds back he disribuions ha were cashed ou. The cashed ou disribuions were no reinvesed so hey do no conribue o growh in TNA. Therefore, he growh of TNA should be aribued o ne new cash flows. TNA CF TNA TNA ( r ) = * d i * ( b) p + + i= CF = ne cash flows for monh TNA = beginning of he monh oal ne asses (ending TNA of previous monh) TNA = end of he monh oal ne asses r = monhly reurn for monh d i = disribuion (capial gain or dividend) during monh p = beginning of he monh NAV (ending NAV of previous monh) b = reinvesmen rae in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 5

6 TNA Esimaes In some cases, Morningsar is missing oal ne asses (TNA) for funds for hisorical monhs. Morningsar sudied he pracice of esimaing TNA and cash flows for he hisorical gaps and deermined ha a reasonable assumpion could be made in order o fill hese TNA holes. The underlying assumpion is ha TNA grew each monh by he amoun of he reurn (r) plus some consan cash flow each monh. So, if TNA is missing for June and he TNAs from May 3 and July 3 are available, Morningsar assumes ha he amoun of he difference ha can be aribued o growh in reurn is due o cash flows. In addiion, Morningsar assumes ha his amoun is divided equally beween June and July cash flows. (The oal excess will always be spread over n + number of monhs for every n number of holes.) Formally, he consan cash flow, (C), when missing n number of monhs of TNA is: C TNA n+ = n ( + TNA ( 0 n+ = s= + n+ = ( + r )) ( + r )) s The esimae TNA is herefore TNA = TNA ( + r ) + C Based on esing, i was deemed reasonable o fill up o six consecuive holes in TNA. If a fund has a ime period wih more han six consecuive holes, cash flows canno be deermined and no invesor reurn will be calculaed. If a fund is missing TNA a is incepion, Morningsar will no aemp o esimae hese. Morningsar also will no esimae missing TNA for he mos-recen monh. Invesor Reurns Once monhly cash flows are available for he period in quesion, invesor reurns can be derived wih an ieraive process. As wih an inernal rae of reurn calculaion, invesor reurn is he consan monhly rae of reurn ha makes he beginning asses equal o he ending asses wih all monhly cash flows accouned for. Morningsar runs a program ha aemps o solve for his consan rae of reurn, adjusing he esimae up and down unil i converges on a soluion. Then he monhly invesor reurn (r) is annualized ((+ R IR ) 2 -). in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 6

7 Monhly invesor reurns can also be calculaed wih he inernal rae of reurn (IRR) funcion in Microsof Excel. For example, he monhly invesor reurn over a 2-monh period is IRR (TNA 0, CF, CF 2, CF, (CF 2 TNA 2 )). The monhly invesor reurn will be differen depending on he ime period being measured, even if he same monhs are being used in wo differen calculaions. For example, a one-year invesor reurn for he ime period 2/3/2004-2/3/2005 has a monhly invesor reurn of 0.99%. Over he hree-year ime period 2/3/2002-2/3/2005, he same fund has a monhly invesor reurn of.2%. Example A grea deal of cash came ino his sample fund beween December 3 and January 3. The cash flow for January is 87,540,480; his is simply he difference in ending and beginning oal ne asses (TNA) ha canno be explained by he monhly oal reurn of 6.05%. In February and March, cash coninued o come ino he fund. In March, he TNA acually wen down, bu his decrease can be aribued o he poor reurn as cash coninued o flow ino he fund. As wih an IRR calculaion, invesor reurn is he consan monhly rae of reurn ha makes he beginning asses equal o he ending asses wih all monhly cash flows accouned for. Invesor Reurn Example: Toal Ne Asses Monhly Toal Reurn Cash Flow Consan monhly rae of reurn Link beginning value o ending value Dec 3 5,04,39 Jan 3 729,525, % 87,540, % 696,8,650 Feb ,96, % 83,962, % 776,725,69 Mar 3 795,933,57-3.6% 22,95, % 795,933,57 Toal reurn 3 monhs = 0.55% Invesor reurn monhly = -0.48% Invesor reurn 3 monhs = -.44% Cash Flow = TNA ending TNA beginning x (+monhly oal reurn) Link beginning value o ending value = TNA beginning x (+consan monhly rae of reurn) + cash flow in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 7

8 For his example, he invesor who purchased on December 3 and followed a buy and hold sraegy received he hree-monh oal reurn of 0.55%. The average invesor experience, however, is only -.44%. Mergers In he case of a merger, invesor reurns may be misrepresenaive if wo condiions occur:. The change in asses is significan. 2. The reurns before and afer he merger are significanly differen. In his example, wo funds merged ogeher in April The surviving fund (Fund A) ended up being he fund wih he smaller TNAs prior o he merger. Wih no adjusmen o accoun for he merger, he invesor reurn is significanly lower; because i looks like mos of he invesors missed he 6.06% reurn in March and hen proceeded o ge poor reurns in he subsequen monhs. If ha inflow in April was new cash, he invesor reurn would be correc. Bu, in realiy, he invesors from he obsolee fund (Fund B) were making some reurns before i was merged ino his fund (Fund A). Fund A Reurns Fund A TNA , , , ,79, ,800, ,756, ,869, ,272, ,387, ,905, ,467, ,794,57 Toal Reurn -9.04% Invesor Reurn % Morningsar adjuss for mergers by working wih he fund company o ge he TNA and cash flow daa ha reflecs he combined fund. in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 8

9 FAQ. Why would a fund be missing invesor reurn? There are a couple of differen reasons why a fund migh be missing invesor reurns. For insance, if he fund is less han one year old, i will no have sufficien performance hisory, as Morningsar doesn calculae invesor reurns for periods less han one year. Oher reasons include if he fund is missing more han six consecuive TNAs during he ime period in quesion; if he fund is missing is mos recen TNA; or if he fund is missing TNA near is incepion dae and hose daes overlap wih he ime period for he reurn. 2. Why would an invesor reurn be greaer han a oal reurn? When his occurs, more invesors paricipaed in he fund s upswing and less invesors paricipaed in he fund s downswing. I is no a buy signal, bu an indicaion ha invesors imed heir purchases and sales of he fund well. Someimes, i is a conrary indicaor when an invesmen class is a he end of a srong bull marke. For example, many specialy echnology funds had high invesor reurns in 999 when vas inflows coincided wih he end of he echnology bull marke. 3. Are invesor reurns adjused for sales loads? As wih oal reurn, Morningsar does no adjus invesor reurns for sales charges (such as fron-end loads, deferred loads and redempion fees). The invesor reurns do accoun for managemen, adminisraive, 2b- fees and oher coss aken ou of asses. in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 9

10 Conclusion Invesor reurns measure he experience of he average invesor in a fund. I is no one paricular invesor s experience, bu a measure of he average reurn on all dollars invesed. Invesor reurns are no a subsiue for oal reurns bu can be used in combinaion wih oal reurns. Comparing invesor reurns o oal reurns reveals how well invesors imed heir fund purchases and sales (invesor behavior) and wheher he fund promoes sound invesmen sraegy (fund family behavior). in whole or par, wihou he prior wrien consen of Morningsar, Inc., is prohibied. 0