Working Paper: Reversal Patterns

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1 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Working Pper: Reversl Ptterns Working Pper In this pper I wnt to review nd (hopefully) vlidte few populr trding ides to determine their expectncy (edge). I wnt to show you how I review nd vlidte ides with the hope to encourge you to do the sme when considering trding ide to pursue. Mrket Ide Mny books, people nd pundits believe certin ptterns cn identify mrket turning point. I will be reviewing the following reversl ptterns; Reversl Dy Key Reversl Dy Outside Reversl Dy Key Outside Reversl Dy Mrket Dt I use universl diversified portfolio of 24 Mrkets. Every trder s twin evils re curve fitting nd dt mining. One is lwys present while the other cn be eliminted. Curve fitting will lwys be present. All trders do it to some degree. Most trders over do it. The good trders lwys look to minimise it. Dt mining cn be voided by objectively selecting universl portfolio of mrkets tht re diversified nd hve miniml correltion. For my trding nd reserch I use universl portfolio of 24 mrkets spred cross 8 mrket segments; currencies, interest rtes, indices, energy, metls, grins, softs nd mets. Within ech mrket segment I select the 3 most liquid futures mrkets bsed on their verge dily volume. Using diversifiction nd volume s the selection process provides me with n objectively nd independently selected portfolio of diversified mrkets. A portfolio of mrkets tht is bsent of dt mining. Mrket Dt Dt: Period: Source: Formt: Sessions: Dt rollover: I use futures dt , 37 yers. I use Premium Dt from Norgte Investor Services; I use the bck-djusted continuous future contrct dt. I use the combined ll-sessions dt. I used Premium Dt s defult rollover dys tht ttempt to roll over when the dily volume shifts. Softwre I do ll my own progrmming using VBA (Visul Bsic Appliction) for Excel. To view the VBA editor in Excel simply open workbook nd hit Alt F11. Trde Pln Once reversl hs been identified I will pply simple trde pln to determine the pttern s effectiveness in identifying reversl point. Buy Trde Pln [Opposite for sells] Entry: Buy next dy s open. Stop: Tke 1% of the set-up s br close nd deducted it from the entry price. Exit: Hold for five dys nd exit mrket on close on the fifth dy. 1

2 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Mrket Ide: Reversl Dy A sell Reversl Dy pttern occurs when dy s br will open bove the previous dy s high nd close lower then the previous br s close. The opposite occurs for buy Reversl Dy pttern. Exmple: Reversl Dy Sell This Reversl Dy occurred on the 23 Mrch Selling on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde exit on the close of the fifth dy. In this instnce the Reversl Dy did identify reversl nd offered good trding opportunity. Exmple: Reversl Dy Buy This Reversl Dy occurred on the 10 June Buying on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde exit on the close of the fifth dy. A second Reversl Dy occurred on the 1 st July It lso identified profitble reversl trde. When reviewing nd vlidting ides my first step is to check tht my code is doing wht I expect it to do by viewing the pttern nd trde signl on chrt. In this instnce I m hppy tht my coding is correctly identifying Reversl Dy nd correctly pplying the simple trde pln. Now tht I m hppy everything is working my next step is to pply the Reversl Dy pttern over my universl portfolio of 24 mrkets. 2

3 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Performnce Results: Reversl Dy Ah disppointing. Over the 37 yer test period spnning 24 mrkets there were 3,600 Reversl Dy brs. Applying the simple trde pln sw n verge loss of -$93. Thoughts Some will sy tht the Reversl Dy pttern needs to be looked t in context. Is the mrket trending, nd is it trending strongly? Is the mrket over-bought or over-sold? I understnd these sentiments however context cn be subjective. For exmple wht is the trend? How will it be defined? How is over-bought nd over-sold defined? A few subjective questions need to be nswered. For the ske of rgument nd curiosity let s look t the Reversl Dy in couple of different contexts. Performnce Results: Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm In this test I pplied 200 dy moving verge (dm) trend filter. Buys would only be tken in n up trend s defined by the 200dm. Sells would only be tken in down trend. Em, no good. Let me try nother ide. 3

4 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Performnce Results: Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm nd Trend = 34dm In this test I pplied second shorter 34dm trend filter. Buys would only be tken if the set-up br s close ws bove both 34dm nd 200dm. The opposite for sell. Even pplying dul moving verge trend filter did not lift the Reversl Dy br pttern out of its negtive expectncy. Let s try one more test pplying the rubber bnd men reversion ide. The trend will be defined by the 200dm nd rther then the set-up br s close being bove 34dm for buy, I ll require the set-up br s close to be below the 34dm. In essence, for buy trde, we wnt the short-term trend s defined by the 34dm to be down, while the long-term trend s defined by the 200dm to be up. We re expecting men reversion bck to the trend nd hope the Reversl Dy br cn ctch the sling-shot rubber bnd snp bck movement. Let s hve look. Performnce Results: Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm nd Fde = 34dm Em Still no good. Actully, requiring the short-term 34dm trend to be down hs worsened the results. This rubber-bnd ide, using 34dm nd 200dm certinly doesn t work with Reversl Dy. Even pplying dul moving verge trend filter did not lift the Reversl Dy br pttern out of its negtive expectncy. Conclusion: Reversl Dy Despite my picture perfect exmples of the Reversl Dy pttern, when combined with simple 5 dy trde pln pplied over diversified portfolio of 24 mrkets, nd exmined with number of subjective trend nd counter-trend filters, hs negtive expectncy. Tht is, with the combintion of mrkets, trde pln nd trend filters I hve used, Reversl Dy does not hve n edge. Is the Mrket Ide Fct of Fiction? For my eyes nd my portfolio, it s fiction. 4

5 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Mrket Ide: Key Reversl Dy A sell Key Reversl Dy pttern occurs when dy s br will open below the previous dy s close, mke new high nd close lower then the previous br s close. The opposite occurs for buy Key Reversl Dy pttern. Exmple: Key Reversl Dy Sell This Key Reversl Dy occurred on the 5 July Selling on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde exit on the close of the fifth dy. In this instnce the Key Reversl Dy did identify reversl nd offered good trding opportunity. Exmple: Key Reversl Dy Buy This Reversl Dy occurred on the 16 December Buying on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde exit on the close of the fifth dy. In this instnce the Key Reversl Dy did identify reversl nd offered good trding opportunity. My next step is to pply the Key Reversl Dy pttern over my universl portfolio of 24 mrkets. Being Key I expect the pttern to perform well in identifying reversls over 5 dys. 5

6 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Performnce Results: Key Reversl Dy Wht d?..well I suppose there is n improvement with Reversl Dy s verge net loss of -$93 improving to Key Reversl Dy s net loss of only -$5. Thoughts Agin, I cn her some of you sy tht the Key Reversl Dy br pttern needs to be look t in context. Let s try few configurtions. Performnce Results: Key Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm In this test I pplied the 200 dy moving verge (dm) trend filter. This trend filter ctully worsens the result! Let dd medium-term 34dm trend filter. Performnce Results: Key Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm nd Trend = 34dm Ah h..using dul moving verge filter lmost mkes Key Reversl Dy positive. 6

7 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Conclusion: Key Reversl Dy Agin, despite my well chosen picture perfect exmples the Key Reversl Dy pttern, when combined with simple 5 dy trde pln pplied over diversified portfolio of 24 mrkets, nd exmined with number of subjective trend, hs negtive expectncy. Tht is, with the combintion of mrkets, trde pln nd trend filters I hve used, the Key Reversl Dy does not hve n edge. Is the Mrket Ide Fct of Fiction? For my eyes nd my portfolio, it s fiction. 7

8 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Mrket Ide: Outside Reversl Dy A sell Outside Reversl Dy pttern occurs when dy s br will open bove previous dy s high, mke new low nd close lower then the previous br s close. The opposite occurs for buy Outside Reversl Dy pttern. Exmple: Outside Reversl Dy Sell This Outside Reversl Dy occurred on the 2 April Selling on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde exit on the close of the fifth dy. In this instnce the Outside Reversl Dy did identify reversl nd offered good trding opportunity. Exmple: Outside Reversl Dy Buy This Outside Reversl Dy occurred on the 27 Mrch Buying on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde exit on the close of the fifth dy. In this instnce the Outside Reversl Dy did identify reversl nd offered good trding opportunity. My next step is to pply the Outside Reversl Dy pttern over my universl portfolio of 24 mrkets. Let s see if combining n Outside Br with Reversl Dy improves performnce? 8

9 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Performnce Results: Outside Reversl Dy :o( Well I suppose there is n improvement with Reversl Dy s verge net loss of -$93 improving to Outside Reversl Dy s net loss of -$61. But it s not better then Key Reversl Dy s verge net loss of -$5. Thoughts Once gin I ll try few trend filters nd see wht pops out. Performnce Results: Key Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm Nup. No good. Performnce Results: Key Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm nd Trend =34dm Well how bout tht, profit! Finlly positive 1% expectncy. Certinly not good enough to trde, but given the results so fr, positive outcome. 9

10 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Conclusion: Outside Reversl Dy The Outside Reversl Dy pttern, when combined with simple 5 dy trde pln pplied over diversified portfolio of 24 mrkets, nd exmined with number of subjective trend filters, hs smll positive expectncy. Tht is, with the combintion of mrkets, trde pln nd trend filters I hve used, the Outside Reversl Dy hs very smll edge. Is the Mrket Ide Fct of Fiction? For my eyes nd my portfolio, there is some smll element of truth in it. 10

11 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Mrket Ide: Outside Key Reversl Dy A sell Outside Key Reversl Dy pttern occurs when br will open below the previous br s close, mke new high followed by new low nd close lower then its open. The opposite occurs for buy Outside Reversl Dy pttern. Exmple: Outside Key Reversl Dy Sell This Outside Key Reversl Dy occurred on the 22 October Selling on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde exit on the close of the fifth dy. In this instnce the Outside Key Reversl Dy did identify reversl nd offered good trding opportunity. Exmple: Outside Key Reversl Dy Buy This Outside Key Reversl Dy occurred on the 4 September Buy on the open of the next dy with 1% stop sw the trde stopped out on dy of entry. In this instnce the Outside Key Reversl Dy did not identify reversl point. My next step is to pply the Outside Key Reversl Dy pttern over my universl portfolio of 24 mrkets. Let s see if combining n Outside Br with Key Reversl Dy improves performnce? 11

12 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Performnce Results: Outside Key Reversl Dy Well this is disppointing. One would think combining n Outside Dy with Key Reversl Dy would produce something interesting. But unfortuntely, it doesn t. Thoughts Let me try few trend filters nd see wht develops. Performnce Results: Outside Key Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm Well it s good to see n improvement. Let s dd short-term 34dm trend filter. Performnce Results: Outside Key Reversl Dy with Trend = 200dm nd Trend = 34dm No good. While it reduces the number of trdes it increses the verge net loss from -$34 per trde to -$48 per trde. :o( Conclusion: Outside Key Reversl Dy It hs negtive expectncy when pplied to my universl portfolio simple 5 dy trde pln with vrious subjective trend filters. Is the Mrket Ide Fct of Fiction? For my eyes nd my portfolio, it s fiction. 12

13 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! In Summry Reversl Dy, Key Reversl Dy, Outside Reversl Dy nd Key Outside Reversl Dy ptterns re bed rock of Technicl Anlysis 101. They re regulrly written bout, tught nd referenced cross hundreds of books, courses, the internet nd webcsts. Yet despite their populrity they hve, ccording to my portfolio nd my simple trde pln, negtive expectncy. When filtered with subjective trend filters only the Outside Reversl Dy hs smll positive expectncy. As I ve sid mny times it s importnt to welcome ll ides. You cn not fford to prejudice ny thoughts you her bout the mrkets, despite how crzy some my sound. However, to survive in the mrkets you need to become cynic when it comes to trding. Certinly welcome ll suggestions however you need to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide. There re no short-cuts to trding success. As Lrry Willims hs sid there re no esy solutions to trding. Do the work. Test ll ides. Use universl portfolio to eliminte dt mining. Embrce simplicity to minimise your curve fitting. Clculte your expectncy nd ROR. If your ROR=0% you my just be redy to trde for profits. 13

14 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! These re my results with my portfolio, my (dily) timefrme, my filters nd my simple trde pln. You my chieve different results with different portfolio, different timefrme, different filters nd different trde pln. It doesn t mtter. Wht mtters is tht you independently vlidte ll ides to see whether they hve vlue in your hnds, cross your portfolio, within your timefrme, with your filters nd with your trde pln. If they do (with minor curve fitting) then you re moving forwrd. I hope this Working Pper hs been of some ssistnce s you continue your journey towrd long-term nd sustinble trding. And remember to be cynic in this business of trding, prticulrly when it comes to middle of the rod vnill ides like Technicl Anlysis s 101 reversl ptterns. Good vlidting, good money mngement nd good risk mngement. Sydney, Austrli My

15 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Trder, Advisor, Author nd Eductor. is 30-yer vetern trder hving begun his creer in 1983 s n institutionl trder with Bnk Americ. In ddition to being professionl trder Brent is licensed dvisor, uthor nd eductor. Tody Brent trdes diversified globl portfolio of mrkets including indices, currencies, interest rtes, energies, metls, grins, softs nd mets. He is the uthor of two books; Trding the SPI (Wiley 2005) nd The Universl Principles of Successful Trding (Wiley 2010). The Universl Principles of Successful Trding hs become n interntionl best seller tht hs now been trnslted into Polish, Germn, Koren, Jpnese nd simplified nd orthodox Chinese. Brent hs third book coming out in 2018; The Universl Tctics of Successful Trding (Wiley 2018). Brent publishes dily newsletters for ctive index, currency nd commodity trders nd is populr nd sought fter interntionl speker who hs presented to trders throughout the Asi Pcific region including; Austrli New Zelnd Mlysi Singpore Hong Kong Vietnm Thilnd Indi nd Chin. Brent is licensed dvisor nd holds Mster of Commerce (Finnce) degree. To lern more bout nd his services you cn visit his web site: Plese red the following Wrning on the next pge. 15

16 Remember to welcome ll ides in trding. AND remember to reserve your opinion until you hve independently vlidted the ide! Wrning Plese red This Working Pper does not contin ny trding dvice, personl dvice or generl dvice. This Working Pper is eductionl only nd is designed to encourge trders to independently verify trding ides before they consider using them in the mrket. When reserching certin trding ides this Working Pper does not tke into ccount individul trder needs, their individul finncil sitution or their individul investment objectives. If you wish to further explore the ides shred in this Working Pper you will need to, with or without the ssistnce of licensed finncil dviser, determine whether the prticulr trding ide is pproprite in light of your prticulr needs, finncil sitution nd investment objectives. You need to understnd there is risk of loss in trding nd tht this Working Pper does not indicte future trding success. By receiving this Working Pper you cknowledge tht you understnd nd ccept these wrnings. 16

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