Florida: Long-Range Financial Outlook

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1 Florida: Long-Range Financial Outlook September 3, 2009 Presented by: The Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research

2 Current Year Deficits it & Balance Unallocated General Revenue (Current Outlook) +$667.1 million Medicaid FY & $224.8 million Principal State School Trust Fund FY $ 38.1 million Risk Management Trust Fund FY $ 5.3 million Voluntary Pre-Kindergarten FY $ 17.5 million +$381.4 million

3 Presentation ti Framework The General Revenue Fund is solvent for Fiscal Year , but has projected shortfalls in each of the three planning years despite the significant revenue growth projected for those years. The Long-Range Financial Outlook assumes that nonrecurring solutions are used to address the budget gaps, meaning that each year stands alone, and: that the beginning balances for the subsequent years are zero; there are no fiscal strategies t deployed d that t cause permanent changes to revenues or expenditures; and, there is no required repayment of funds in future years.

4 Key Budget Drivers... Citi Critical lneeds FY FY FY Major Major Major Critical Needs (Includes Annualizations, Mandatory Increases Based on Estimating Conferences, and Other Essential Needs) Education - Stimulus Restoration , FEFP - Workload / Class Size Red (18.8) (7.9) Education - Misc 39.0 (2.6) 18.3 (1.6) State Government Operations Medicaid 1, ,130.7 (324.7) Health & Human Services Judiciary 62.0 (62.0) 27.0 (27.0) 9.7 (9.7) Criminal Justice & Corrections State Disasters Unemployment Compensation General Government Subtotal Critical Needs 2, ,941.7 (230.6) 1,

5 Outlook for Critical Needs GENERAL REVENUE OUTLOOK - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED REVENUES TO ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES TIER 1 ISSUES - CRITICAL NEEDS NO FISCAL STRATEGIES --- NO RESERVE ($ MILLIONS) FY FY FY FY Recurring Non-recurring Recurring Non-recurring Recurring Non-recurring Recurring Non-recurring Funds Available: Balance Forward Revenue Estimate 20, , , , , , , ,879.4 Non-operating Funds New Issues - Environmental Land Acquisition Transfer From Trust Funds Funds Available 20, , , , , , , ,975.0 Estimated Expenditures: Base Budget 20, , , , , ,872.8 New Issues by GAA Section: Section 2 - Education 11, , , , Section 3 - Human Services 4, , , , , , Section 4 - Criminal Justice and Corrections 3, , Section 5 - Natural Resources /Environment/Growth Management/Transportation Section 6 - General Government Section 7 - Judicial Branch Administered Funds - Statewide Issues New Issues 2, , , , ,028.6 Medicaid Deficit (FY & FY ) Other Deficits (SS, RM and VPK)* Transfer to Budget Stabilization Fund Estimated Expenditures 20, , , , , , , ,115.9 Ending Balance , , , ,140.9 Note: Negative balances are not allowed to carry-forward to subsequent years; the assumption is that each year is addressed with a nonrecurring solution. * State School Trust Fund (SS), Risk Management Trust Fund and Voluntary Pre-Kindergarten (VPK)

6 Key Budget Drivers... Other High Priorities iti Other High Priority Needs (Includes Other Historically Funded Issues) FY FY FY Major Major Major Statewide Buildings Transportation & Environment , , ,952.4 Environmental Land Acquisition General Government Education - Stimulus Restoration FEFP - Enhancement Education - Misc State Government Operations Medicaid -MEDS AD & Medically Needy Health & Human Services Criminal Justice & Corrections Judiciary Subtotal Other High Priority Needs 1, , , , , ,165.3

7 Outlook for Critical & High Pi Priority it Needs GENERAL REVENUE OUTLOOK - COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED REVENUES TO ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES TIER 2 ISSUES - CRITICAL NEEDS AND OTHER HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS NO FISCAL STRATEGIES --- NO RESERVE ($ MILLIONS) Recurring FY FY FY FY Nonrecurring Non- Non- Nonrecurring Recurring recurring Recurring recurring Recurring Funds Available: Balance Forward Revenue Estimate 20, , , , , , , ,879.4 Non-operating Funds New Issues - Environmental Land Acquisition Transfer From Trust Funds Funds Available 20, , , , , , , ,890.7 Estimated Expenditures: Base Budget 20, , , , , ,895.4 New Issues by GAA Section: Section 2 - Education 11, , , , , , Section 3 - Human Services 4, , , , , , Section 4 - Criminal Justice and Corrections 3, , Section 5 - Natural Resources /Environment/Growth Management/Transportation Section 6 - General Government Section 7 - Judicial Branch Administered Funds - Statewide Issues New Issues 3, , , , , , , , ,009.4 Medicaid Deficit (FY & FY ) Other Deficits (SS, RM and VPK)* Transfer to Budget Stabilization Fund Estimated Expenditures 20, , , , , , , , , , ,119.3 Ending Balance , , , , , , , ,228.6 Note: Negative balances are not allowed to carry-forward to subsequent years; the assumption is that each year is addressed with a nonrecurring solution. * State School Trust Fund (SS), Risk Management Trust Fund (RM) and Voluntary Pre-Kindergarten (VPK)

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