Student Population Projections By Residence. School Year 2016/2017 Report Projections 2017/ /27. Prepared by:

Transcription

1 Student Population Projections By Residence School Year 2016/2017 Report Projections 2017/ /27 Prepared by: Revised October 31, 2016

2 Los Gatos Union School District TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Executive Summary Section One: Section Two: Section Three: Section Four: Section Five: Section Six: Section Seven: Section Eight: Methodology Sources of Data 1 Ten Year Projection Methodology 3 Applying Variables to Generate Projections 11 Student Population Projection A Ten Year Projection Summary Projection A 13 ES Attendance Area Projections by Residence A 14 MS Attendance Area Projection by Residence A 15 Student Population Projection B Ten Year Projection Summary Projection B 16 ES Attendance Area Projections by Residence B 17 MS Attendance Area Projection by Residence B 18 Student Population Projection C Ten Year Projection Summary Projection C 19 ES Attendance Area Projections by Residence C 20 MS Attendance Area Projection by Residence C 21 Attendance Matrix Attendance Matrix 22 K-8 Attendance Matrix 23 Student Capture Analysis Student Capture Analysis 23 Staffing Projections by School Staffing Projections by School 24 Study Area Projections Study Area Map 27 Study Area Projections 28 October 31, 2016 o TOC

3 Los Gatos Union School District INTRODUCTION The Los Gatos Union School District has contracted with & Planning, Inc. () to update and analyze demographic data relevant to the District s facility planning efforts. The scope of contracted work includes: mapping the District, address matching the current student file, developing and researching pertinent demographic data, identifying future residential development plans and developing a Ten year student population projection. will then assist the District in developing solutions for housing future student population. Additionally, this study was prepared to assist the District s efforts in evaluating future site requirements and attendance area changes. The purpose of this report is to identify and inform the District of the trends occurring in the community; how these trends may affect future student population; and to assist in illustrating facility adjustments that may be necessary to accommodate the potential student population shifts. The District can then use this information to better plan for the need, location and timing of facility or boundary adjustments. The Sources of Data section details where the two sources of data, geographic and nongeographic, are collected and how each data item is used in the Ten-year student population projection model. The Ten Year Projection Methodology section discusses in detail how the factors used in the study were calculated and why they were used. These factors include: the calculation of incoming kindergarten classes, additional students from new housing (referred to as student yield), the effects of student mobility, and a detailed review of planned residential development within the District. The District Student Resident Projection Summary sections review the Fall 2016/17 student resident projection results. Included in these sections are a district wide student population projection summary and a projected resident student population summary for each existing attendance area and study area. While reading this report, it is important to remember that this is a snapshot of current and potential student population based upon data gathered in Fall 2016/17. Population demographics change, development plans change, funding opportunities can change, District priorities can change, and therefore, new projections and adjustments to the overall Master Plan will continue to be necessary in the future. October 31, 2016 INTRODUCTION

4 Los Gatos Union School District EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & Planning, Inc. () is assisting the Los Gatos Union School District (District) to plan for future student population changes. By factoring current and historical student data with demographic data and planned residential development, calculated a ten-year student population projection. This projection is based upon residence of the students and is designed to alert the District as to when and where student population shifts will occur. Projection factors, trends and development data is based upon the best information at the time of the analysis. This information can change quickly and advises an annual review of projections. The District has grown annually from 2,587 students in the 2006/07 school year to 3,382 students in the 2015/16 school year. During this timeframe there was only a minimal amount of new housing units built within the District boundaries, suggesting growth was caused by other factors rather than new development. The most likely cause of growth was from a positive net migration of families with school age children moving into the District. However there was a decline in student enrollment of 128 student between the 2015/16 and 2016/17 schools years. The decline was mainly in the elementary grades and was especially notice in kindergarten. Kindergarten enrollment declined by 70 students in one year and will affect future K enrollment forecast because future K s enrollment is partially calculated using current K s enrollment. Using the most recent data available for analysis it appears the trend of increasing student population has stopped for now with a possibility for a slight decline in K-5 enrollment. While mobility rates (the gauge of net migration) continue to be positive, recent area births have declined. The known and active residential developments along with some speculative projects will likely result in a slight increase in overall student population. Due to uncertainty in future residential development and after discussions with District Staff it was decided to calculate three sets of projections. The different projections will provide a range of forecasts that should prepare the district for the future. October 31, 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

5 Los Gatos Union School District Projection A No Future Development. Future kindergarten classes and mobility are the only factors affecting Projection A. This will provide a baseline projection. Projection A Results: Projected annual decline at K-5 with stability for a few years at the 6-8 level. This is due to a decline in area births and subsequent decline in future kindergarten enrollment. As 8th grade classes of about 400 students graduate they are being replaced by kindergarten classes of approximately 250. Even with positive net migration this will result in declining enrollment. Projection B Known and Approved Future Development. Only development that has been approved is included in Projection B. Projects include, Elks Lodge, Higgins, Highlands, North Forty, Oak Rim/Blossom Hill and Sorellas Projection B Results: An annual K-8 decrease of 1% to 2% between 2015/16 and 2021/22 with the majority of the decline in the K-5 grade range. The total K-8 student population net decrease is 253 students in the five year timeframe. Projection C All Known Future Development Moderate Density. Projection C includes projects still in the early planning stages and has not been finalized or approved. The projection includes all projects included in Projection B plus Honda Site, Los Gatos Lodge, Oka Rd/Lark Ave and Surrey Farms Estates Projection C Results: An annual K-8 decrease of 0.5% to 1% between 2015/16 and 2021/22 the majority of the decline in the K-5 grade range. The total K-8 student population net decrease is 160 students in the five year timeframe. With the information available at this time, is in the opinion that future student population will fall somewhere between Projection B and Projection C. The two projections are identical until the 2017/18 schools year. This allows the district enough to time analyze future trends, economic conditions and housing policies to adjust the projections as needed. DDP strongly suggest the Los Gatos Union School District revisits student population projections annually.. October 31, 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

6 Los Gatos Union School District SOURCES OF DATA Geographic Map Data Five geographic data layers were updated for use in the ten-year student population projections: 1. Street Centerline Database 2. Study Areas 3. Schools 4. Students Historical and Current 5. Future Residential Development 1) Street Centerline Data has licensed a digital street centerline map of the School District from Santa Clara County. The street database has associated attributes that contain, but are not limited to, the following fields: full street name, address range and street classification The main function of the streets is in the geo-coding process of the student data. Each student is address matched to the streets by their given address. The geo-coding process places a point on the map for every student in the exact location of student residence. This enables to analyze the student data in a geographic manner. Another vital utilization of the digital street database is in the construction of study areas. Freeways, major streets and neighborhood streets are used as boundaries for the study areas. 2) Study Areas Study areas are small geographic areas and the building blocks of a school district; they are similar to neighborhoods. Study areas are geographically defined following logical boundaries of the neighborhood, such as freeways, streets, railroad tracks, rivers, etc. Each study area is then coded with the elementary, junior high and high school that the area is assigned to attend. By gathering information at the study area level, a school district can closely monitor growth and demographic trends in particular regions and spot potential need for boundary changes or new facilities. 3) Schools The District provided school facility location information to for the purpose of mapping the District facilities. 4) Student Data a. Historical Student Data - Historical enrollment is used to compare past student population growth and trends as well as the effects of mobility (move-in, move-out from existing housing) throughout the District. utilized the 3 previous years (2012/13, 2013/14 and 2014/15) address matched students as historical data. October 31, 2016 Page 1

7 Los Gatos Union School District b. Current Student Data - A student data file geocoded approximately September 15 th, 2016 summarized by grade level and by study area is used as a base for enrollment projections. Existing students were categorized by study area through the address matching process that locates each student within a particular area based upon their given address. The projections run each of the next ten years from fall 2016/17 through fall 2026/27. The Student Accounting Summary (Table 1) indicates the total student enrollment as of September 15, 2016 and the number of students used in the ten year student population projections. The projection model is based upon student residence and excludes students residing outside of the District s boundaries, students unable to be address matched and Independent Study students. Table 1 Student Accounting Summary 5) Future Residential Development Planned residential development data is collected to determine the number of new residential units that will be built over the ten-year timeframe of the student population projections. The projected units within the next ten years will have the appropriate Student Yield Factor, Table 6, applied to them to determine the number of new students planned residential development will yield. Non-Geographic Data Two basic sets of non-geographic data were compiled and reviewed for use in the ten-year student population projections by residence: 1. Births by Zip Code 2. Mobility Factors 1) Births by Zip Code Data - Birth data by postal zip code was obtained from the California State Department of Health for the years and roughly correlated to the Los Gatos Union School District. Past changes in historical birthrates are used to estimate incoming kindergarten student population from existing housing. 2) Mobility Factors - Mobility refers to the increase/decrease in the migration of students within the District boundaries (move-in/move-out of students from existing housing). Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage of increase/decrease among each grade for every year of the projections October 31, 2016 Page 2

8 Los Gatos Union School District TEN YEAR PROJECTION METHODOLOGY The projection methodology used in this study combines historical student population figures, past and present demographic characteristics, and planned residential development to forecast future student population at the study area level. District-wide projections are summarized from the individual study area projections. These projections are based on where the students reside and their school of residence. utilizes, the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate estimate of where future school facilities should be located. The best way to plan for future student population shifts is to know where the next group of students will reside. The following details the methodology used in preparing the student population projections by residence. Ten-Year Projections Projections are calculated out ten years from the date of projection for several reasons. The planning horizon for any type of facility is typically no less than five years, often longer. Ten years are sufficient to adequately plan for a student population shift and facility restructuring. It is a short to midterm solution for planning needs. Projections beyond Ten years are based on speculation due to the lack of reliable information on birthrates, new home construction, economic conditions etc. Why Projections are Calculated by Residence Typically, school district projections are based on enrollment by school. However, this method is inadequate when used to locate future school facility requirements, because the location of the students is not taken into consideration. A school s enrollment can fluctuate due to variables in the curriculum, program changes, school administration and open enrollment policies. These variables can skew the apparent need for new or additional facilities in an area. The method used by is unique because it modifies a standard cohort projection with demographic factors and actual student location. bases it s projections on the belief that school facility planning is more accurate when facilities are located where the greatest number of students reside. The best way to plan for future schools is to know where the next group of students will be coming from. The following details the methodology used in preparing the student population projections. 1) Progression - Each year of the projections, 8th grade students graduate and continuing students progress through to the next grade level and kindergarten students start school. This normal progression of students is modified by the following factors: October 31, 2016 Page 3

9 Los Gatos Union School District 2) Incoming Kindergarten Live birth data, reported to the California State Department of Health, by the resident postal zip code of the mother is used to project the base incoming kindergarten class. Additional kindergarten students may be added from future development. uses birth data by zip code so, if need be a different birth factor can be applied to various areas of the District. Incoming kindergarten classes, for existing homes, are estimated by comparing changes in past births and kindergarten class enrollment. Table 2 shows the total births for each zip code in the Los Gatos Union School District from 1998 to Future kindergarten classes (2017/ /28) are estimated by multiplying the existing kindergarten class (2016/17) by the ratio of the projected year s births to the 2011 births. Assuming that the fall 2016/17 kindergarten class was born in 2011, compared the total births in 2011 to the total births in 2012 to determine a factor for next year's kindergarten class (fall 2017/18). Similarly, 2011 was compared to 2013 (fall 2018/19 K class), 2011 to 2014 (fall 2019/20 K class) and 2011 to 2015 (Fall 2020/21 K class). Chart 1 Birth Data October 31, 2016 Page 4

10 Los Gatos Union School District October 31, 2016 Page 5

11 Los Gatos Union School District 3) Student Mobility Factors - Student mobility factors further refine the ten-year student population projections. Mobility refers to the increase/decrease in the migration of students within the District boundary (move-in/move-out of students from existing housing). Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage to each grade for every year of the projections. A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor of 100%. A net student loss is represented by a factor less than 100% (1.00) and a net gain by a factor greater than 100% (1.00) (see example). Example: 100 K grade students in fall 2016/17 X 1.07% (1 st Grade mobility Blossom Hill E.S.) = st Grade students in fall 2017/18 Having historical student data categorized by study area is extremely helpful in calculating accurate Student Mobility Factors. was able to utilize the last four years (fall 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17) student data. The 2013/14 student data was compared to 2014/15, 2014/15 to 2015/16, and 2015/16 to this year s student data at the Study area level. Grades K-8 Mobility was calculated to correspond with elementary attendance areas. Table 3 Mobility Factors October 31, 2016 Page 6

12 Los Gatos Union School District 4) Planned Residential Development Planned residential development data is collected to determine the number of new residential units that will be built over the ten-year time frame of the student population projections. The projected units within the next ten years will have the appropriate Student Yield Factor, Table 5, applied to them to determine the number of new students planned residential development will yield. This data was obtained through discussions with the planning department of the City of Los Gatos. A database map of the planned residential development was created, including, when available, project name, location, housing type, total number of units and estimated move-in dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based upon occupancy of the unit and is used to help time the arrival of students from these new developments. In the student population projection by residence includes all approved and tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the Information may change and should be updated annually (see Table 4). Table 4 Planned Residential Development Note: The development list includes projects that occupancy will begin in the ten year time period of the enrollment projections. Some future projects may not be included if they do not fall in this time frame. Total Units reflect the number of approved units for the project not the remaining units to be built. Some projects, such as Oka Rd/Lark Ave, may not happen at all. October 31, 2016 Page 7

13 Los Gatos Union School District Residential unit s occupancy summary by Study Area Table 5 and 6 Residential Development Summary October 31, 2016 Page 8

14 Los Gatos Union School District October 31, 2016 Page 9

15 Los Gatos Union School District 5) Student Yield Factors 10 Year Projections - Closely related to the planned residential development units are Student Yield Factors. The Student Yield Factors, when applied to planned residential development units, determine how many additional students will be generated from new construction within the District. used student yield factors calculated in 2014 based upon recent residential development. Table 5 Student Yield Factors October 31, 2016 Page 10

16 Los Gatos Union School District APPLYING THE VARIABLES TO GENERATE THE PROJECTIONS The following paragraphs summarize how uses the factors to determine the student population projections. Remember that these projections are based on residence. The Los Gatos Union School District has been divided into 118 study areas and each study area is coded for the elementary, junior high and high school attendance area in which it fall. The residential projections are calculated at the study area level. This means that Davis Demographics conducts 118 individual projections that are based upon the number of students residing in each study area. The first step in calculating these projections involve listing the number of students that live in a particular study area by each individual grade (kindergarten through 8th grade). The current student base (Fall 2016/17) is then passed onto the next year's grade (2016/17 s K become 2017/18's 1 st graders, 2016/17's 1 st graders become 2017/18's 2 nd graders, and so on). After the natural progression of students through the grades is applied, then Birth Factors are multiplied by the current kindergarten class to generate a base for the following year's kindergarten class. Next, a Mobility Factor is applied to all grades. Again, these factors take into account the natural in/out migration of students throughout the District. The last essential layer applied to the projections deals with additional students from planned residential development. This is a simple calculation, again conducted at the study area level, where the estimated number of new housing units for a particular year is multiplied by the appropriate Student Yield Factors. For example, if 100 single family detached (SFD) units are to be built in a specific study area in a given year, and then you would multiply this number (100) by the SFD K-5 student yield factor (.299) and the resulting number of students 29.9.) is divided evenly among the seven grades To finish generating the projections by residence, the same process is conducted for each of the 118 study areas. Once the projections have been run at the study area level, then it is simple addition to determine projections for each of the District's attendance areas or for a district-wide summary. For example, the student population projections for Blossom Hill Elementary School are simply the summary of all of the study areas that make up this specific attendance area. The District Summary for the projections (Section 3) is a total summary of all 118 study areas, which excludes all of the students that attend a District school but live completely outside of the District's boundaries, are unmatched due to incorrect address information and independent study students. These out-of-district, unmatched and independent study students are factored back into the projections by simply adding the existing totals in at the bottom of the projections (please see the Attendance Matrices in Section 2 for a breakdown of the out-of-district, unmatched and independent study students by school). Davis Demographics adds the current total out-of-district, unmatched students and independent study students to each year of the projections because there is no way to accurately forecast these students in the future. October 31, 2016 Page 11

17 Los Gatos Union School District TEN YEAR PROJECTION SUMMARIES Finally, the student population is projected out ten years for each of the study areas and for the entire Los Gatos Union School District. The District Wide projection summaries enable the District to see a broad overview of future student population and what impact this population will have on existing facilities. The study area listings enable the District to monitor student population growth or decline in smaller geographic areas within the District. At any point in time, study areas and their projected resident students can be shifted between schools to assist in balancing enrollment changes. Together, these projection summaries present the means to identify the timing of student arrivals and overall facility requirements, as well as location in order to accommodate the District's expected population shift. Due to uncertainty in future residential development and after discussions with District Staff it was decided to calculate four sets of projections. The four different projections will provide a range of forecasts that should prepare the district for the future. October 31, 2016 Page 12

18 Los Gatos Union School District October 31, 2016 Page 13

19 Los Gatos Union School District School Projections by Residence Projections A Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries. October 31, 2016 Page 14

20 Los Gatos Union School District School Projections by Residence Projections A Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries. October 31, 2016 Page 15

21 Los Gatos Union School District October 31, 2016 Page 16

22 Los Gatos Union School District School Projections by Residence Projections B Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries. October 31, 2016 Page 17

23 Los Gatos Union School District School Projections by Residence Projections B Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries. October 31, 2016 Page 18

24 Los Gatos Union School District October 31, 2016 Page 19

25 Los Gatos Union School District School Projections by Residence Projections C Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries. October 31, 2016 Page 20

26 Los Gatos Union School District School Projections by Residence Projections C Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries. October 31, 2016 Page 21

27 Los Gatos Union School District ATTENDANCE MATRIX Three attendance matrices have been included to provide a better understanding of where students reside and where they attend school. Remember, projections are based upon where the students reside, not where they attend school. uses the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate prediction of future facilities adjustments. Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students reside, the figures used as a base for each school's resident projection may differ from the actual reported enrollment for each school. These attendance matrices act as a check and balance for student accounting. They show where the students reside (in what School of Residence) based upon our address matching capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance) based upon data in the student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these matrices is essential to showing how the students used in the projections match up to the District s records of enrollment for each school. The best way to plan for future facilities changes is to know where the next group of students will be residing, not necessarily which school they are currently attending. READING THE MATRIX Looking at the K-8 Attendance Matrix below, let's begin with Blossom Hill ES as an example. Following down the first column with the Blossom Hill ES heading, there are 558 students who attend Blossom Hill ES and reside in the Blossom Hill ES attendance area. Continuing downward, 38 students attend Blossom Hill ES that resides in the Daves Avenue ES attendance area. Next the matrix shows that students attend Blossom Hill ES and reside in Lexington s attendance area, and so on. The row Special Education refers to SDC student in specialized programs, there are no special education students attending Blossom Hill ES. Out of District refers to students who live completely outside of the Los Gatos Union School District, but attend one of the District's schools. There are 8 Out of District students attending Blossom Hill ES. Total Enrollment shows the total number of students attending a school regardless of where they reside, and reflects the District s enrollment counts for each school. There are a total of 642 students attending Blossom Hill ES. The next step is to read across the matrix, beginning with the Blossom Hill ES attendance area row. We understand that the 558 represents the total number of students that reside in the Blossom Hill ES attendance area and attend Blossom Hill ES. The next column, Daves Avenue ES, refers to the number of students that reside in the Blossom Hill ES attendance area, but attend Daves Avenue ES. There are currently 27 students that reside in the Blossom Hill ES attendance area and attend Daves Avenue ES. The Total Residence column is the total number of students living in each particular attendance area. There are 667 K-5 students residing in the Blossom Hill ES attendance area. The Total Attendance row is the actual number of students used as the base or actual number for each attendance area in the Fall 2016/17 projections October 31, 2016 Page 22

28 Los Gatos Union School District Table 6 K-8 Attendance Matrix Student Capture Rate Analysis Estimated student capture rates are used to give the district a rough estimate of the school age population of each attendance area compared to the number of L.G.U.S.D. students residing there. School age population is derived from overlaying L.G.U.S.D. attendance areas onto ESRI s estimated population by census block data. L.G.U.S.D is capturing approximately 92% of the school age population residing within the district s boundaries. October 31, 2016 Page 23

29 Los Gatos Union School District Staffing Projections SchoolSite Staffing Projections is a way to ensure your district has the appropriate staff to fulfill future classroom requirements. SchoolSite Staffing Projections utilize current resident and enrollment information, as well as historic student mobility to calculate an estimated enrollment for each school. This method of strategic and planned staffing can help to evaluate the current state of facilities, as well as their future needs. Two-Year Staffing Projections Mid-term to long-term facilities planning is always best when it is based upon the resident location of future student populations, rather than the enrollment at the individual schools. However, a two year projected enrollment can be used to assist with estimating staffing and budget requirements over the short term. Methodology for Schools with Attendance Boundaries Calculating a staffing projection for schools with attendance boundaries is different from calculating it for a school without attendance boundaries. For school with attendance boundaries, the two year projected enrollment is calculated using a combination of future resident population and historic transfer patterns for each school. Similar to the mobility factors in the residence projections, a cohort is derived by averaging four years of past transfer patterns. The cohort is calculated for both transfers into and out of each school for each grade between 1 and 12 that the school serves. This cohort is then applied to the current transfer by grade of the base year students to come up with estimated in and estimated out transfers for the future years. To estimate the transfers in and transfers out for the lowest grade served at each school, an average is taken of the last four years of transfers. Finally, projected enrollment by grade for each school is calculated by taking the projected resident population and adding the estimated transfers in and transfers out. Methodology for Schools without Attendance Boundaries To calculate a staffing projection for schools without attendance boundaries, a different method of calculation is used. Transfers in and transfers out for the lowest grade served at each school are estimated by taking an average of the last four years of transfers. Each subsequent grade is calculated using the non-weighted cohort survival method and applied to the current year's enrollment. is using Projection B as the base for the staffing projections. October 31, 2016 Page 24

30 Los Gatos Union School District Staffing Projections by School Projections B October 31, 2016 Page 25

31 Los Gatos Union School District Staffing Projections by School Projections B October 31, 2016 Page 26

32 Los Gatos Union School District October 31, 2016 Page 27

33 Study Area 49 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 50A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

34 Study Area 50B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 51 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

35 Study Area 52 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 53 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

36 Study Area 54 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 55A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

37 Study Area 55B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 56 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

38 Study Area 64 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 65 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

39 Study Area 66A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 66B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

40 Study Area 67A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 67B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

41 Study Area 68 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 69 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

42 Study Area 70A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 70B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

43 Study Area 71A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 71B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

44 Study Area 73 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 74 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

45 Study Area 75A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 75B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

46 Study Area 76 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 77 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

47 Study Area 78 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 79 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

48 Study Area 80 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 80A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

49 Study Area 81 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 82 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

50 Study Area 83 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 84 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

51 Study Area 85A Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 85B Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

52 Study Area 86 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 87 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

53 Study Area 88 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 89 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

54 Study Area 90 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 91 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

55 Study Area 92 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 93 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K

56 Study Area 96 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K Study Area 97 Projection Date 10/1/2016 K K K