Are We There Yet? IPv6 as Related to GDP per Capita. By Alain Durand November 28 th,` 2016

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1 Are We There Yet? as Related to By Alain Durand November 28 th,` 2016

2 Quesons for this Study: I. Where are we across the globe with adoption? a. Is deployed uniformly? b. Is there a rich country/poor country divide? II. What can adoption numbers tell us about as a replacement for IPv4? a. How to best measure adoption? Penetration or usage? How do they differ? b. Are we there yet? (As in, can we retire IPv4?)

3 Methodology I. Find data about adoption country Penetration data Bandwidth data II. Compare countries Use capita to characterize countries Gross Domestic Product divided by population size Metric widely use by economists to compare countries Look at outliers III. Assessment of the data Are the various data set telling the same story? Are we there yet?

4 Find data about adoption country

5 Data Sources I. APNIC/Geoff Huston penetration study Uses Google ads Provide a proxy* for measuring penetration, i.e. the potential of using country II. AKAMAI State of the Internet study Measure hits over on Akamai caches Provide a proxy* for measuring bandwidth, i.e. the usage of country * Proxy: a figure that can be used to represent the value of something in a calculaon

6 Where are we across the globe with adoption?

200,000 Deployment Related to 180,000 160,000 in D 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - QA KW AE OM

UZ TO NI PK GH MR MH FM DJ CI BD CM PG LS NP TL SB SS AF ZW HT GM ML MG TG GN NE MW CD LI BM MM SO GL GY AR Let s

7 200,000 Deployment Related to 180, ,000 in D 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - QA KW AE OM ES SC KZ KN CL HR UY TR MU VE LB BG SR BB TH TM IQ PW CO DO ZA MV JO MN EC DM VC EG BA GE JM UA SV AM MA PH CV NG IN UZ TO NI PK GH MR MH FM DJ CI BD CM PG LS NP TL SB SS AF ZW HT GM ML MG TG GN NE MW CD LI BM MM SO GL GY AR Let s start by plo[ng * capita according to World Bank data. *: capita is a classic metric economists use to compare countries.

200,000 Deployment Related to Penetraon 100.0 180,000 90.0 160,000 80.0 in D 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 60,000 30.0 40,000 20.0 20,000 10.0-0.

8 200,000 Deployment Related to Penetraon , , in D 140, , ,000 80, , , , QA KW AE OM ES SC KZ KN CL HR UY TR MU VE LB BG SR BB TH TM IQ PW CO DO ZA MV JO MN EC DM VC EG BA GE JM UA SV AM MA PH CV NG IN UZ TO NI PK GH MR MH FM DJ CI BD CM PG LS NP TL SB SS AF ZW HT GM ML MG TG GN NE MW CD LI BM MM SO GL GY AR Then suimpose penetraon & bandwidth data country. Deployment in

200,000 C > $23,000 Top-50 Deployment Related to Penetraon 100.0 180,000 90.0 160,000 80.

0-0.0 QA KW AE OM ES SC KZ KN CL HR UY TR MU VE LB BG SR BB TH TM IQ PW CO DO ZA MV JO MN EC

SS AF ZW HT GM ML MG TG GN NE MW CD LI BM MM SO GL GY AR We can then visually sort countries

9 200,000 C > $23,000 Top-50 Deployment Related to Penetraon , , in D 140, , ,000 80, , , , QA KW AE OM ES SC KZ KN CL HR UY TR MU VE LB BG SR BB TH TM IQ PW CO DO ZA MV JO MN EC DM VC EG BA GE JM UA SV AM MA PH CV NG IN UZ TO NI PK GH MR MH FM DJ CI BD CM PG LS NP TL SB SS AF ZW HT GM ML MG TG GN NE MW CD LI BM MM SO GL GY AR We can then visually sort countries in two groups: you are much more likely to have if you are in the top-50 countries in capita. Deployment in

200,000 C > $23,000 Top-50 Deployment Related to Penetraon 100.0 180,000 90.

0 in D 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 The cut-off for the top-50 countries in capita

10 200,000 C > $23,000 Top-50 Deployment Related to Penetraon , , in D 140, , ,000 80,000 The cut-off for the top-50 countries in capita is $23, Deployment in 60,000 40,000 $23, , QA KW AE OM ES SC KZ KN CL HR UY TR MU VE LB BG SR BB TH TM IQ PW CO DO ZA MV JO MN EC DM VC EG BA GE JM UA SV AM MA PH CV NG IN UZ TO NI PK GH MR MH FM DJ CI BD CM PG LS NP TL SB SS AF ZW HT GM ML MG TG GN NE MW CD LI BM MM SO GL GY AR 0.0

11 200,000 C > $23,000 Top-50 Deployment Related to Penetraon , , in D 140, , ,000 80,000 There are some notable excepons, in parcular: BR, PE & EC in the Lacnic region Deployment in 60, ,000 20,000 - RO BR PE QA KW AE OM ES SC KZ KN CL HR UY TR MU VE LB BG SR BB TH TM IQ PW CO DO ZA MV JO MN EC DM VC EG BA GE JM UA SV AM MA PH CV NG IN UZ TO NI PK GH MR MH FM DJ CI BD CM PG LS NP TL SB SS AF ZW HT GM ML MG TG GN NE MW CD LI BM MM SO GL GY AR EC BA BO KI HT

200,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries 100.0 Penetraon 180,000 90.0 160,000 80.0 in D 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 40,000 20.

12 200,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries Penetraon 180, , in D 140, , ,000 80,000 60, , , QA MO SG KW BN AE NO HK SA NL AT BH CA IS FI FR OM JP KR GQ ES IL CY SI SK LT SC GR PL RU KZ BS Let s zoom-in into the top 50 countries. Deployment in

200,000 180,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries Penetraon 100.0 90.0 in D 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 This is not a uniform situaon either.

13 200, ,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries Penetraon in D 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 This is not a uniform situaon either. Six countries are leading with both penetraon & bandwidth numbers over 20. GR Deployment in 40, , QA MO SG KW BN AE NO HK SA NL AT BH CA IS FI FR OM JP KR GQ ES IL CY SI SK LT SC GR PL RU KZ BS 0.0

14 200, , ,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries Penetraon TOP 10 countries in D 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 Country pc Rank GR EC PE FI GR Deployment in 40, , QA MO SG KW BN AE NO HK SA NL AT BH CA IS FI FR OM JP KR GQ ES IL CY SI SK LT SC GR PL RU KZ BS 0.0

200,000 180,000 160,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries Penetraon TOP 10 countries 100.0 90.0 80.0 in D 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Country pc Rank 51.1 23 30.5 11 29.0 9 28.

15 200, , ,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries Penetraon TOP 10 countries in D 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 Country pc Rank GR EC PE FI Not in TOP-50 in capita GR Deployment in 40, , QA MO SG KW BN AE NO HK SA NL AT BH CA IS FI FR OM JP KR GQ ES IL CY SI SK LT SC GR PL RU KZ BS 0.0

16 Assessment of the data

200,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries 100.0 Penetraon 180,000 90.0 in D 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 40,000 20.0 20,000 10.0-0.

17 200,000 Deployment Related to Top-50 Countries Penetraon 180, in D 160, , , ,000 80,000 60, , , QA MO SG KW BN AE NO HK SA NL AT BH CA IS FI FR OM JP KR GQ ES IL CY SI SK LT SC GR PL RU KZ BS Let s now look at the blue lines and the red lines. They do not match exactly. Deployment in

PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth 10 9 8 7 6 Let s plot the rao PenetraCon over Bandwidth for all countries with more than

18 PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth Let s plot the rao PenetraCon over Bandwidth for all countries with more than 0.1 penetraon SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth 10 9 8 7 6 One could expect that the potenal of usage (a.k.a. penetraon), should be suior to, but in line with, the actual usage (a.

19 PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth One could expect that the potenal of usage (a.k.a. penetraon), should be suior to, but in line with, the actual usage (a.k.a. bandwidth). 5 Penetraon = Usage SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

Off the chart: is available but not used: x15 to x900

6 Some countries appear to have available but are

5 Penetraon = Usage 4 3 2 1 0 SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI

20 Off the chart: is available but not used: x15 to x PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth Some countries appear to have available but are apparently not using it much. 5 Penetraon = Usage SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

21 PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth Other countries have linle penetraon but relavely heavy usage. 5 Penetraon = Usage Heavier usage than penetraon data suggests 1 0 SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth 10 9 8 7 6 usage is 2 to 8 mes less than penetraon Countries in the yellow zone use two to eight mes less

22 PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth usage is 2 to 8 mes less than penetraon Countries in the yellow zone use two to eight mes less than they could. 5 Penetraon = Usage SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth 10 9 8 7 6 Countries in the green zone have bandwidth number more in par with their penetraon numbers numbers.

23 PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth Countries in the green zone have bandwidth number more in par with their penetraon numbers numbers. Penetraon = Usage usage is 1 to 2 mes less than penetraon 1 0 SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

24 PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth Penetraon = Usage Removing outliers, Average = x2.2 Median = x SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

25 PenetraCon vs Usage: PenetraCon / Bandwidth penetraon numbers can be misleading. Penetraon = Usage Removing outliers, Average = x2.2 Median = x1.8 bandwidth usage numbers might be more representave of the actual impact of on the global Internet 1 0 SA LK CL VN GT IL SI FI MD LV BG NL IN TH BR PL JP EC CA BA RO GR BO RU SG FR PE SD LT TZ NO UA AT BT CN KR

26 Are We There Yet? A.k.a. Is a viable replacement for IPv4?

27 Are We There Yet? A.k.a. Is a viable replacement for IPv4? I. No II. There are positive signs Six countries have both penetraon and bandwidth numbers over 20. III. IPv4 will still be very relevant for a long while The large number of countries with low capita that have very little or no should tems enthusiasm.

29 Thank you for your Attention twitter.com/afrinic facebook.com/afrinic flickr.com/afrinic youtube.com/afrinicmedia Questions?

30 Raw Data

31 Raw Data: Top-50 Countries ( ) Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon QA 134, , , , , MO 133, SA 49, IS 41, GQ 33, LT 25, , , , ES 31, SC 25, SG 78, NL 45, FI 38, IL 31, GR 24, KW 69, , , , , BN 67, AT 43, FR 37, CY 29, PL 23, AE 64, , OM 36, , , NO 63, BH 43, JP 35, SI 28, RU 23, , , , , KZ 23, HK 52, CA 42, KR 33, SK 26, BS 22,

32 Raw Data: Countries ( ) Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon KN 22, MU 17, BB 15, CO 12, MN 11, LV 22, BY 17, BR 15, RS 12, TN 10, CL 21, VE 16, TH 15, DO 12, EC 10, AG 21, AZ 16, LY 14, CN 12, LK 10, HR 20, LB 16, TM 14, ZA 12, DM 10, PA 19, IR 16, ME 14, MK 12, LC 10, UY 19, BG 16, IQ 14, MV 11, VC 10, RO 19, MX 16, CR 14, GD 11, AL 10, TR 18, SR 15, PW 14, JO 11, EG 10, GA 18, , DZ 13, PE 11, ID 10,

33 Raw Data: Countries ( ) Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon BA 9, AM 7, IN 5, GH 3, CI 3, NA 9, BT 7, VN 5, SD 3, ST 3, GE 8, MA 7, UZ 5, MR 3, BD 2, PY 8, GT 7, LA 5, ZM 3, VU 2, JM 8, PH 6, TO 4, MH 3, CM 2, FJ 8, BO 6, MD 4, TV 3, KE 2, UA 8, CV 6, NI 4, FM 3, PG 2, BZ 8, CG 5, HN 4, KG 3, TJ 2, SV 7, NG 5, PK 4, DJ 3, LS 2, SZ 7, WS 5, PS 4, KH 3, TZ 2,

34 Raw Data: Countries ( ) Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon Penetraon NP 2, ZW 1, TG 1, LI GY SN 2, UG 1, GW 1, MT YE TL 2, HT 1, GN 1, BM AR TD 2, RW 1, MZ 1, AD FO SB 2, GM 1, NE MM BJ 1, BF 1, LR CU SS 1, ML 1, MW SO SL 1, ET 1, BI AO AF 1, MG 1, CD GL KI 1, KM 1, CF PR

Total Frequency Percent CAPS Graduate Graduate Intensive English

Total Frequency Percent CAPS Graduate Graduate Intensive English Total Enrollment Fall, Fall I 2006: 8150 All Students by School All Students By Status CAPS & Traditional UG 4722 57.9 Continuing 5926 72.7 Graduate 3406 41.8 First-time Freshman 911 11.2 Intensive English