Wisconsin Trout and Climate Change: Predictions and Strategies

Transcription

1 Wisconsin Trout and Climate Change: Predictions and Strategies Duke Welter TU Western Great Lakes Conservation Coordinator Midwest Regional Meeting March 28, 2015

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3 Outline Quickie Tour of Wisconsin Trout Resources Statewide summary of projected impacts Driftless Summary Mitigation Techniques

4 10,500 miles Of trout water Generally 4 types

5 Northern Highlands Basaltic Bedrock Snowmelt source from lakes and welands Relatively Infertile * Thermally Sensitive Drought Sensitive

6 Central Sands Groundwater fed Glacial gravels & boulders ( Drift ) Relatively fertile --Mecan River

7 Anadromous Great Lakes Fisheries Flow to Lakes Michigan and Superior Lake run steelhead, browns, coho & Coaster brook trout * Resident Brooks & Browns

8 Driftless Spring Creeks Spring-fed Very Fertile Thermally buffered 2,500 miles in WI Driftless Browns and Brooks --Lost Creek (really)

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11 Climate forecasts predict a much different Wisconsin By 2030: our summers will resemble current Illinois temperatures By 2095: our summers will resemble current Arkansas temperatures and our winters will resemble current Iowa temperatures

12 Thermal Resilience of Trout Streams Stream Length (miles) Cold (future) Cold-transition (future) Warm-transition (future) Warm (future) FUTURE CURRENT 0 Watershed Name

13 Optimum Temps: F.

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17 Future Challenges Resilience of Brook Trout to Climate Warming limate Effects on Brook Trout Distribution ( ) Total Stream Length (miles) Stable Brook Trout Risk Brook Trout Lost Brook Trout 0 Baraboo River Region Black River Region Chippewa River Region Kickapoo River Region Lower Wis River Region Kinnikinnic River Region Platte River Region Pecatonica River Region Planning Regions of the Driftless Area

18 Optimum Temps: F.

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21 The image part with relationship ID rid3 was not found in the file. Future Challenges Resilience of Brown Trout to Climate Warming limate Effects on Brown Trout Distribution ( ) Total Stream Length (miles) 1,500 1, Stable Brown Trout Risk Brown Trout Lost Brown Trout 0 Baraboo River Region Black River Region Chippewa River Region Kickapoo River Region Lower Wis River Region Kinnikinnic River Region Platte River Region Pecatonica River Region Planning Regions of the Driftless Area

22 Future Challenges Climate Change Total Stream Length (miles) Climate Effects on Smallmouth Bass Distribution ( ) Smallmouth Bass - Currently Present Smallmouth Bass - Gain Smallmouth Bass - Possible Gain 0 Baraboo River Region Black River Region Chippewa River Region Kickapoo River Region Lower Wis River Region Kinnikinnic River Region Platte River Region Pecatonica River Region Planning Regions of the Driftless Area

23 Results of Stressors Alters brook and brown trout competition or interactions Streams may convert from trout to non-trout (e.g. Smallmouth bass) waters Susceptibility to other challenges (e.g., gill lice)

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27 Opportunities for TU If groundwater is the key, and habitat and land use are primary tools, consider how chapters and councils might build: Advocacy programs for groundwater protection Strong project capacity Perhaps Farm Bill Fish Biologists to bring fishfriendly land use aid to farmers Triage: not only streams, but concentration of TU resources where we get the best bang for the buck

28 QUESTIONS?

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32 The image part with relationship ID rid4 was not found in the file.

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34 Future Challenges Climate Change Trout are very sensitive to changes in temperatures: Climate models project warmer air and water temperatures by mid-century ( ) Smallmouth bass are projected to expand their range Brook trout need cold temperatures to survive. There may be as much as a 75% decrease in the number of brook trout stream miles in the future. Brown trout are more tolerant than brook trout to warmer water. Brown trout will see modest reductions in their future distribution. Projected increases in stream temperature vary across the Driftless Area, primarily due to differences in groundwater inputs. Some of the larger waters that currently support trout may support smallmouth bass in the future. None of the waters where smallmouth bass currently exist are projected to warm enough to affect the fishery.

35 Timber Coulee Creek Habitat Restoration 1985 Before After