Looking Forward: 2019 Salmon Fisheries

Transcription

1 Looking Forward: 2019 Salmon Fisheries Preliminary Pre-season Planning Considerations Southern BC Post-season Review Meetings December 6, 2018

2 Outline A. IFMP Planning Considerations: 1. COSEWIC and SARA listing timelines 2. Chinook management 3. Southern Resident Killer Whales 4. Interior Fraser Steelhead 5. Fraser River Sockeye 6. Interior Fraser Coho 7. Five Nations Fishery Management Plan 8. Pacific Salmon Treaty Implementation 9. CSAF demonstration fisheries B Salmon Outlook C. IFMP process timelines 2

3 A. IFMP Planning Considerations Key planning considerations reflect areas where Department expects potential changes to management approaches and decision guidelines for 2019 fishing season A letter will be sent to First Nations and stakeholders in early Dec. with further details on planning priorities and seeking feedback by Jan. 11, Consultations with First Nations and stakeholders will occur as part of process to develop the draft salmon IFMP and includes a 30 day public comment period prior to finalizing the 2019/20 salmon IFMPs. 3

4 1. SARA Listing Timelines - Salmon Five salmon listing processes need to be undertaken. New service standard directs listing decision to occur within 36 months of submission of assessment by COSEWIC to GoC (thru COSEWIC Annual Report). Species # of DUs* COSEWIC Assessment Date 4 COSEWIC Status Sakinaw Sockeye (April) EN Oct 2016 Interior Fraser Coho (November) TH Oct 2017 Okanagan Chinook (April) EN Oct 2017 Fraser Sockeye (Group I) (November) 8 EN, 2 TH, 5 SC, 9 NAR Oct 2018 Steelhead Trout (Thompson & Chilcotin) (January) 2 EN (Emergency)** N/A COSEWIC Annual Report Date Southern BC Chinook (Group I) (November) 8 EN, 4 TH, 1 SC, 1 NAR, 2 DD Anticipated Oct 2019 Fraser Sockeye (Group II) (November) Assessment not yet performed Anticipated Oct 2020 Steelhead Trout (Thompson & Chilcotin) (November) Re-assessment not yet performed (nonemergency) Southern BC Chinook (Group II) 12 TBD Assessment not yet performed TBD EN Endangered, TH Threatened, SC Special Concern, NAR Not at Risk, DD Data Deficient Anticipated Oct 2020

5 1. Context New Listing Service Standard Announced Nov 27, 2017, two timelines for listing decisions for aquatic species: o 24 months from GoC Receipt of Assessment for simple species Requires recommendation to be submitted to GiC w/in 15 months. o 36 months from GoC Receipt of Assessment for complex species (e.g. salmon) Requires recommendation to be submitted to GiC w/in 27 months. Standard is to be applied: o In full to all species assessed Nov 2017 onwards, includes Fraser Sockeye and Southern BC Chinook. o To the greatest extent possible to species in the 2017 COSEWIC Annual Report (includes Okanagan Chinook and Interior Fraser Coho) 5

6 1. SARA Listing Process COSEWIC ASSESSMENT Undertaken by COSEWIC SARA LISTING PROCESS Recovery Potential Assessment Management Scenarios Socio-economic Analysis Consultations Listing recommendation For aquatic species, undertaken by DFO, in consultation with First Nations and Stakeholders DO NOT LIST LIST REFER BACK TO COSEWIC Decision by Governor in Council, not DFO or ECCC Not a SARA file Managed under alternative regulatory approach Extirpated, Endangered, Threatened Protected status, Recovery Strategy & Action Plan, Critical Habitat Special Concern Management Plan only, no protections or Critical Habitat Reassessment (where info supports a change in COSEWIC status) 6

7 1. Context Default Listing Position DFO will advise the List be amended for a species as assessed by COSEWIC, unless there is a Compelling Rationale not to do so. When providing Do Not List Advice, DFO must: o o o Provide Compelling Rationale Create and implement work plan if DFO will undertake incremental activities Report on work plan progress after 5 years. Compelling Rationale must address: o o Alternative recovery approach and expected outcomes in absence of listing Net benefits to Canadians of DNL decision. Compelling Rational is developed in consideration of multiple sources of information including: o COSEWIC Assessment, Recovery Potential Assessment, consultation results, approved management scenarios and their impacts, analysis of costs and benefits. o 7

8 2. Chinook Management 2018 Preliminary results 2019 Expectations Fishing plans targeted 25-35% reduction in fishing mortality for Chinook stocks of concern Assessment of fishery reductions will require CWT data (March 19) Assessment of conservation and allocation objectives in the 5yr Review of Fraser River Chinook (Fraser Spring 4 2, Spring 5 2 and Summer 5 2 ) expected in Feb/Mar Prelim. data from spawning ground surveys: Fraser River : nearly all Chinook Salmon stocks continued to decline; extremely low returns and unprecedented levels of poor productivity for many stocks. Instances of skewed sex ratios (mostly males) and small body size reported for some systems Vancouver Island: returns were mixed; but some positive results. Northern BC: majority of stocks monitored did not achieve minimum spawning escapement levels. Abundance Index (1 = average of ) AABM Abundance Indices; expected continued abundance decline based on 2-yr forecasts Indices at or below base period value Official Abundance Index forecasts provided in April each year SEAK NBC WCVI

9 2. Chinook Management Addressing the poor status / declines of many BC Chinook stocks requires continued management actions in most areas. New management actions will need to be considered for Chinook fisheries where Fraser Chinook may be encountered to support conservation and rebuilding of these stocks and support prey availability for SRKW. This will require additional reductions in fisheries impacts in times and areas where Fraser Chinook are encountered in Northern and Southern BC including First Nations, recreational and commercial fisheries to pass as many Fraser Chinook as possible to spawning areas. Potential new management actions could include: New time and area closures to reduce impacts on stocks of concern in key rearing areas and during peak migration periods; Reduced fishing effort or harvest allowances in Chinook directed fisheries; Chinook non-retention or consideration of mark selective (i.e. hatchery marked) Chinook retention; A combination of measures. 9

10 Process: 2. Chinook Management Over the next several months, the Department plans to consult with First Nations and stakeholders through existing processes to identify specific details of these potential management actions that could be considered. Department will also seek input on potential biological, cultural, social and economic consequences of potential actions to support decision making. Management measures identified in the current IFMPs (effective June 1, 2018 to May 31, 2019) will be reviewed to consider additional measures that may be required for early season fisheries that start in late winter/early spring 2019, as well as, for fisheries later in the season. 10

11 3. Southern Resident Killer Whale (SRKW) SRKW Objective: The primary objective of 2018 fishery management measures was to improve Chinook Salmon availability for SRKW by decreasing potential fishery competition, as well as, minimizing physical and acoustic disturbance from fishing vessels in key foraging areas to the extent possible. 11

12 3. Management Measure Considerations: When? May 1 to September 30 th proposed as key dates given they correspond with: Timing of SRKW foraging observations in these areas; and, Highest fishing effort in recreational salmon fishery June 1 implemented given decision timeframes in 2018 Which fisheries? commercial, recreational and First Nations salmon fisheries under consideration here as these are the focus of salmon Integrated Fisheries Management Plans. What areas? Strait of Juan de Fuca, Gulf Islands, and Fraser mouth Three key foraging areas within the Canadian portion of the SRKW Critical Habitat (current and proposed) identified based on SRKW foraging observations 12

13 3. SRKW Monitoring / Evaluation Department committed to implementing measures on trial basis in 2018 with a post-season assessment of measures. Range of potential performance measures identified e.g. SRKW body condition, area use and foraging success; acoustic monitoring; vessel information (e.g. creel survey over-flights) and available assessment information for Chinook salmon. Fishery Management staff organized initial meeting with small group of program specialists to discuss available information/observations that can be used to help inform results of the 2018 fishery closures Meeting planned with SRKW committee to discuss performance metrics, data sources and timelines when information will be available. 13

14 3. SRKW 2019 Planning Department is reviewing additional fishery management actions to support increased Chinook prey availability in key SRKW foraging areas within the SRKW Critical Habitat. Potential measures will be designed to provide an accessible food supply and to reduce physical and acoustic disturbance in key SRKW foraging areas. The Department intends to implement measures in 2019 starting in late Winter/Spring to coincide with the return of SRKW to the Salish Sea. Further discussion with First Nations and stakeholders on potential measures that may be considered will occur as part of IFMP consultation process. 14

15 3. SRKW Planning On October 31, 2018, Government announced a suite of additional bold measures focused on broadening and strengthening protection for the species with an additional $61.5 million is being committed to implement the new measures. (see The Indigenous and Multi-Stakeholder Advisory Group (IMAG) will continue to serve as a broad forum for engagement and discussion on measures supporting the recovery of SRKW. Plan to convene technical working groups with policy, technical and scientific experts from federal government, First Nations, environmental groups, industry and other areas to propose and advise on specific actions to address imminent threats to the SRKW and facilitate their recovery. 5 TWGs being proposed including: Prey Availability and Accessibility; Identification and development of proposed SRKW Sanctuaries; Vessel Noise (commercial vessel noise measures); Vessel Noise (general noise measures); and Contaminants. TWGs expected to support identification of and propose: a. Immediate actions can be implemented by May 2019 in support of measures announced in the Whales Initiative and on October 31 b. Longer-term actions can be implemented and/or will achieve results over longer time frame 15

16 4. Interior Fraser Steelhead Thompson and Chilcotin Steelhead Emergency Listing Process Imminent threat opinion not yet provided by Minister of ECCC If no imminent threat exits the Emergency Listing Process If imminent threat then Minister ECCC must recommend listing to GIC Consultation period ended Dec 2 SAR for RPA posted on SARA website November 21 Cost-Benefit Analysis in progress Regional listing package to be provided to Ottawa in December Listing decision (if required) expected from GIC by late spring

17 4. Interior Fraser Steelhead 2019 Fisheries Management linkages to SARA Timing of GIC Listing Decision results in need to consult on both LIST and DO NOT LIST Scenarios for 2019 IFMP DO NOT LIST Scenario similar to 2018 measures 27 day window closure in-river and for Johnstone Strait gillnets Reduced fishing time for salmon FSC in-river Minor modifications to this approach may be considered if alternative, but equally effective, conservation measures are identified during consultations May require additional science advice concerning duration of closure period 17

18 4. Interior Fraser Steelhead 2019 Fisheries Management linkages to SARA LIST Scenario Automatic general prohibitions under SARA Closures to all gear to which steelhead may be vulnerable, in times and areas along the steelhead migration route (terminal exclusions) Closure duration currently projected to be 60 days, but may be longer pending advice from Science Closure to FSC, recreational finfish, commercial Direct impacts on pink, sockeye, chum fisheries Area 126 closure from Aug 22 to Oct 21 Fraser River Mouth from Sept 11 to Nov 10 Kelt outmigration period actions expected in the future, but not identified for

19 5. Fraser River Sockeye Management 2019 is sub-dominant cycle line for Fraser sockeye Quantitative forecasts will be available by February is also a Fraser pink salmon return year. Note: declining trend for last two returns with 2017 return being one of lowest in the last three decades. Planning will need to consider the potential for a range of returns, as well as, specific management measures for protecting and rebuilding stocks of concern including: duration of the window closure to protect weak stocks returning at start of season; escapement plan for each aggregate; and, Additional management measures for stocks of concern. 19

20 Fraser Sockeye Returns Return Year Forecast Probability Level <10% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Actual Returns ,391,000 6,040,000 6,822,000 11,218,000 18,801,000 10,870, ,067,000 4,267,000 4,843,000 8,248,000 14,587,000 3,640, ,487,000 2,449,000 4,304,000 7,752,000 NA 5,200, ,869,000 6,797,000 12,864,000 24,660,000 NA 7,190, ,859,000 7,694,400 12,915,900 22,308,500 NA 15,130, ,908,000 2,742,000 3,141,000 5,502,000 9,744,000 4,890, ,858,000 2,615,000 2,980,000 5,139,000 9,107,000 4,180, ,149,000 8,734,000 16,160,000 30,085,000 53,191,000 7,020, ,683,000 9,530,000 17,357,000 31,902,000 56,546,000 12,980, ,242,500 3,602,000 6,247,000 11,257,000 19,706,000 1,510, ,258,000 1,854,000 2,899,000 4,480,000 7,057,000 1,740, ,556,000 6,039,000 10,578,000 19,451,000 37,617,000 1,590, ,360,000 8,351,000 13,989,000 23,541,000 40,924,000 28,250, ,700,000 2,693,000 4,627,000 9,074,000 15,086,000 5,110,000 returns have been less than the forecast median (p50) for most of the last decade except 2010 *final inseason estimate Record return ,000 1,203,000 2,119,000 3,763,000 6,634,000 2,050, ,554,000 2,655,000 4,765,000 8,595,000 15,608,000 4,130, ,237,000 12,788,000 22,854,000 41,121,000 72,014,000 20,000, ,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000 2,120, ,000 1,296,000 2,271,000 4,227,000 8,181, , brood yr ,315,000 2,338,000 4,432,000 8,873,000 17,663,000 1,487, ,265,000 8,423,000 13,981,000 22,937,000 36,893,000 10,725,000* 20

21 6. Interior Fraser River (IFR) Coho Survival rates remain variable and are well below historic highs in most areas; still in low productivity regime requiring lower exploitation rates. Interior Fraser Coho: key constraint on management of Southern BC fisheries; expect continuation of precautionary management approach similar to pre-2014 for southern BC fisheries. Pacific Salmon Treaty (PST) status reference points and exploitation rate (ER) caps Work to develop status-based management approach for Southern Coho Management Units (MUs) by end 2018 to support Pacific Salmon Treaty renewal completed. Consultations occurred from January to April, 2018 and were informed by CSAS paper (completed in Sept, 2017). Link to DFO s consultation site and completed documents for more information: 21

22 6. PST Reference Points and ER Caps for the IFR Coho MU Low Moderate Abundant Survival S <= 0.03 Three consecutive years 0.03 < S <= 0.06 and Three consecutive years S > 0.06 and Escapement Monitored in CU s and sub pops but no thresholds Three consecutive years: Half of sub pops in each CU > 1000; or Aggregate MU esc. objective (e.g., 27,000) Three consecutive years: All IFR sub pops in each CU > 1000; or Aggregate MU esc. objective (e.g., revised 40,000) ER cap (US/Can) 0.20 (0.10/0.10) 0.30 (0.12/0.18) 0.45 (0.15/0.30) Previous approach included ER caps of 20% for low; 40 for moderate and 65% for abundant 22

23 6. IFR Coho Management Considerations No change to current 20% ER cap for low status in place since Note: each country s share of the 20% ER cap (10% each) may be managed to lower ERs based on domestic planning (e.g. Canada implemented 3-5% ER on interior Fraser River MU in most years). ER Caps for moderate and abundant status categories for the IFR MU are lower consistent with a desire to be cautious in the face of uncertain data and analysis, as well as, feedback from consultations. No change to US shares of the IFR MU ER Caps. An improvement from Low to Moderate or Abundant status would be based on a combination of marine survival rates and spawner abundance for IFR Coho. Canada required to inform US of IFR coho status category in March of each year. Status determination for SoG and LF Coho is not included given current data limitations but may be considered in the future. However, we may revisit this approach in the future. 23

24 7. Five Nations Fishery Mgmt. Plan (FMP) The 2009 BCSC decision (Ahousaht Indian Band et al. v. Canada (Attorney General) established: that Five Nuu-cha-nulth Nations (Ahousaht, Ehattesaht, Hesquiaht Mowachaht/Muchalaht, and Tla-o-qui-aht) have a right to fish for any species of fish within their court-defined fishing territories and to sell that fish (geoduck was later excluded by the Court of Appeal). that Canada's fishing regime was a prima facie infringement of the Five Nations' aboriginal right, except with respect to their harvesting of clams and fish for food, social, and ceremonial purposes; and providing leave for the parties to return to Court to determine whether Canada's prima facie infringement of the Five Nations' aboriginal right was justified. 24

25 7. Five Nations FMP: Background In Mar./15, DFO and the Five Nations returned to the British Columbia Supreme Court (BCSC) to determine whether Canada s prima facie infringement of the Five Nations aboriginal right was justified. On Apr. 19, 2018, the BCSC issued its decision and clarified how the the right to fish and sell fish should be interpreted. The Five Nations' aboriginal right to fish and sell fish is to be interpreted as: a) A non-exclusive, small scale, artisanal, local, multi-species fishery, to be conducted in their court defined area for fishing, which extends nine nautical miles offshore, using small, low-cost boats with limited technology and restricted catching power, and aimed at wide community participation; b) Providing predictable and long term fishing opportunities; and, c) Allowing the sale of fish into the commercial marketplace with the opportunity, but not the guarantee, of sustainability and viability.

26 7. Five Nations FMP: Background The BCSC also found that some aspects of the legislative, regulatory and policy regime that affect the Five Nations Aboriginal right are unjustified infringements. For example, the Court found that DFO s Pacific Salmon Allocation Policy is not justified in affording priority for chinook and coho to the recreational fishery over the Five Nations Aboriginal rights-based commercial fishery. Immediately following the decision, the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans made a public commitment that the Department would work in collaboration with Indigenous groups and all stakeholders to renew and co-develop this policy. The Department intends to review the Salmon Allocation Policy consistent with the direction of the BCSC. Over the coming months, DFO will be seeking input regarding both the scope and process for this review.

27 7. Five Nations Fishery Management Plan The Nov. 1/18 Court Order associated with the Apr. 19/18 BCSC decision effectively requires DFO to complete three steps by Mar. 31/19: 1. The Court Order requires DFO to present the Five Nations with a multi-species fishery management plan by Nov. 30/18 that addresses the unjustified infringements found by the BCSC. 2. DFO will then consult with the Five Nations, other First Nations and stakeholders about the plan between Dec. and Feb. 3. Finally, the Court Order requires that DFO provide the Five Nations with a final fishery management plan with fishing opportunities salmon, groundfish, prawn and crab that they can exercise as of the 2019 fishing season.

28 7. Five Nations Fishery Management Plan DFO provided the Five Nations with an Initial Multi-species Fishery Management Plan on Nov. 30/18. The plan outlines proposed allocations and harvest plans for salmon, groundfish, crab and prawn. DFO will be consulting with the Five Nations, other First Nations and stakeholders between Dec./18 and Feb./19. Summarization, analysis and consideration of the consultation to inform a Ministerial decision on the plan will need to occur prior to Mar. 31/19, thus the goal is to finalize consultations in late Feb./19. A multi-stakeholder meeting is planned for early Jan.; letters of invite will be sent out mid Dec.

29 8. Pacific Salmon Treaty Update Five fishing chapters in Annex IV of the Treaty expire on December 31, 2018 Canada and the U.S. have reached agreement on proposed changes to five fishing chapters in Annex IV of the Pacific Salmon Treaty (PST). Government of Canada is now in the process of ratifying the new agreement with a view to beginning implementation on January 1, This will create a new 10-year conservation and harvest sharing arrangement under the PST. Chapter 4 (Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon) expires December 31, 2019 and renegotiations are currently underway within the PSC regarding renewal of the chapter. 29

30 8. Pacific Salmon Treaty Update Some of the key elements of the proposed agreement include: Implementation of an abundance-based management and harvest sharing arrangement for Taku River Coho salmon; New language regarding conservation actions to be taken in Southeast Alaska when Skeena and Nass sockeye are at low abundances; Harvest reductions in Canadian and U.S. AABM and ISBM fisheries to address ongoing conservation concerns for Chinook stocks in both countries; For Southern Coho, creation of a single Strait of Georgia management unit (MU), replacing two prior MUs and the development of a status-based management approach for Canadian MUs; and, Creation of two breakpoints for Fraser River chum. 30

31 9. CSAF Demonstration Fisheries Confirmation of continued interest in existing CSAF demonstrations and submissions of any new demonstration fishery proposals (or substantial changes to existing proposals) should be submitted by proponents to and their local Fisheries Manager no later than January 28 th, As in previous years, this is to ensure sufficient time for the Department to evaluate the proposals and provide an opportunity for feedback and discussion though the draft IFMP consultation process. Demonstration fishery proposals that are not submitted by this deadline will not be considered for the 2019 season. 31

32 General conditions Pacific Salmon Outlook Expectation that returns of many Pacific salmon populations may continue to be influenced by effects of large scale variability in ocean conditions (e.g. warm blob, El Nino, warm blob) in the North Pacific and freshwater environments. Continued uncertainty about salmon returns that have become increasingly variable and more challenging to reliably forecast. Diminished returns for a number key salmon runs in the Pacific region are expected which may require adjustments to management plans to achieve conservation objectives and provide sustainable harvest opportunities. Please join us for the presentation of the 2019 Pacific Salmon Outlook and State of the Pacific Ocean (with focus on environmental conditions faced by salmon) planned for December 14 from 9-12 by webinar. 32

33 Relating Ocean Conditions to Salmon Returns Most Pacific salmon returning to spawn in 2019 reared as juveniles in the Northeast Pacific Ocean between 2016 and 2019, depending on their life-history and age-at-maturity ocean entry for age 5 1 ocean type Chinook 2016 ocean entry for age 4 1 ocean type Chinook, age 5 2 Sockeye, and age 5 2 Chinook ocean entry for age 4 2 Sockeye and upper Fraser 4 2 Chinook (and most other yearling Chinook) 2018 ocean entry for age 3 Coho and age 2 even-year Pink salmon Overall, environmental conditions have been warmer than average in the Northeast Pacific Ocean and in British Columbia and the Yukon affecting all life stages of Pacific salmon returning in While response of individual salmon populations vary, general observations include below average survival for most Fraser Sockeye, Chinook and Pink stocks; coastwide declines and smaller body sizes and decreases in age-at-maturity for Chinook, and overall greater variability in salmon production. 33

34 Activity DFO letter identifying potential changes under consideration to inform subsequent IFMP planning meetings Salmon Outlook and State of the Ocean report. All First Nations and stakeholders invited to attend. Deadline for written submissions from First Nations and advisory groups on issues identified in DFO letter. Proposals for new demonstration fisheries are also requested by Jan. 28. Integrated Harvest Planning Committee Meetings to review and discuss potential changes to IFMPs and opportunity for focussed discussion on key IFMP issues. Additional meetings with First Nations organizations and advisory groups are also identified in the salmon calendar. Proposed Timelines December 2018 Dec 14th, 2018 from 9 am to 12pm via Conference Call/WebEx January 11, 2019 FN Forum (Jan 29-31) Northern - Prince Rupert (February 5) Southern IHPC Vancouver (February 6) meetings Release draft IFMPs for public review & comment Approx. February 22 Meetings to review draft IFMP Northern IHPC Prince Rupert (March 6); and, 2019 IFMP Timelines: Deadline to submit comments on draft IFMP (30 day comment period) Southern IHPC Vancouver (March 7) FN Forum (March 12-14) April 8 Final Meetings for discussion on IFMP feedback. Full IHPC (April 24-25) FN Forum (Apr 26 or 30) webex Target for public release of salmon IFMP June

35 BACKGROUND SLIDES: 35

36 3. Strait of Juan De Fuca 2018 Map of closures for the Strait of Juan de Fuca June 1 to Sept. 30: Finfish closure for recreational fishery and salmon closure for commercial fishery in Subareas 20-3, 20-4 and a portion of Subarea 20-5 west of Otter Point. 36

37 3. Gulf Islands Map of closures for the Gulf Islands June 1 to Sept. 30: Finfish closure for recreational fishery and salmon closure for commercial fishery in Subareas 18-2, 18-4, 18-5 and

38 3. Mouth of the Fraser River Map of closures for the Mouth of the Fraser River June 1 to Sept. 30: Recreational salmon fishing closure in Subareas 29-7, 29-9 & June 1 to July 31: Recreational and commercial salmon fishing closure in Subarea Aug.1 to Sept. 30: Recreational and 38 commercial Chinook non-retention in Subarea 29-6.