1.What is a bull trout? 2.What is a metapopulation? 3.How do they go together?
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1 1.What is a bull trout? 2.What is a metapopulation? 3.How do they go together?
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4 Bull Trout ESA Background October Petitioned June 1998 Klam/Col = Threatened November 1999 Rangewide Listing October 2002 Recovery Plan 2005 Five-Year Review
5 METAPOPULATION ECOLOGY: IS IT RELEVANT? HABITAT LOSS IS A MAJOR FACTOR IN SPECIES DECLINES HABITAT LOSS LEADS TO FRAGMENTATION FRAGMENTATION=LOSS OF TOTAL AREA AND INCREASED ISOLATION METAPOPULATION STRUCTURE MAY BE ALTERED OR CREATED WHERE NONE EXISTED BEFORE
6 Types of metapopulations LEVINS NON-EQUILIBRIUM ISLAND-MAINLAND PATCHY
7 Variance in patch size Non- Equilibrium Dispersal distance Mainland-island island Classic Levins Patchy Populations Interpatch distance
8 WHAT IS A METAPOPULATION? Levins (1969): A A population of populations Necessary conditions 1) Suitable habitat occurs as discrete patches occupied by local breeding populations 2) Local populations do not have perfectly synchronous dynamics 3) Dispersal is (or was) possible
9 Stream fish and metapopulations TERRITORY SITE REACH STREAM DRAINAGE NETWORK (PATCH) METAPOPULATIONS, LANDSCAPES REGION
10 POPULATION STRUCTURE OF SALMONIDS - Based on distribution of spawning and early rearing HEADWATER HABITAT Juveniles and resident adults DOWNSTREAM HABITATS Migratory adults (natal homing)
11 DISPERSAL PATCH RESIDENT FISH RESIDENT FISH MIGRATORY FISH HOMING HOMING
12 DO METAPOPULATION CONCEPTS APPLY TO SALMONIDS IN STREAMS? 1) Suitable habitat occurs as discrete patches occupied by local breeding populations? YES! DEFINED BY TEMPERATURE, GEOMORPHOLOGY, -HABITAT SELECTION, HOMING, ETC. 2) Local populations do not have perfectly synchronous dynamics? YES! LOCAL DISTURBANCES ARE OFTEN LOCALIZED, E.G. FLOODS, FIRES, LANDSLIDES, NONNATIVE FISHES 3) Dispersal is (or was) possible? YES!
13 A thermal bull trout - scape Refugium Spawning and rearing (suitable year-round) round) Migratory (seasonal use) Unsuitable
14 Predicted probability of occurrence n = Regional Washington Maximum daily temperature ( o C)
15 PATCH DELINEATION Watershed area = Distribution limit
16 CORE AREAS
17 0.7 BOISE BASIN, IDAHO Proportion of sites with bull trout Elevation (m)
18 Juvenile Bull Trout unsampled Absent Present >1600 m elevation ID Kilometers
19 PATCH-SCALE ANALYSIS Hypotheses: 1) Patch area Larger = better Larger population size Less vulnerable to a disturbance
20 PATCH-SCALE ANALYSIS Hypotheses: 1) Patch area 2) Patch isolation - dispersal DISTANCE TO NEAREST OCCUPIED PATCH
21 PATCH-SCALE ANALYSIS Hypotheses: 1) Patch area 2) Patch isolation 3) Road density bad Fishing Nonnatives Habitat degradation Barriers
22 PATCH-SCALE ANALYSIS Hypotheses: 1) Patch area 2) Patch isolation 3) Road density 4) Spatial correlation see later 5) Solar radiation warmer is worse 6) Nonnative brook trout = bad
23 Questions What kind of metapopulation applies? Why are larger patches better? Are there alternative explanations? Detectability/sampling effort? Disturbance? Wood? Climate change? Interactions???
24 OBS = Observation number (in order they are arranged in the data set) PATCHNO = Unique identifier for each patch SMBULL = Occurrence of small (<150 mm) bull trout ANYBULL = Occurrence of any bull trout BROOK = Occurrence of any brook trout PSIZE = Patch area (ha) OCCUPM = Distance to nearest occupied patch OCCUPNO = PATCHNO for the nearest occupied patch OCCUPSI = PSIZE for the nearest occupied patch ROADS = length of roads within the patch SUN = solar radiation within the patch ROADD=ROADS/PSIZE = road density (length/area) in the patch MPEBBLE=estimated relative likelihood of a rechanneling event (1=bedrock, 0=fines) MWOOD=average number of down-woody debris >20 cm diam/20m in stream effort=no hours snorkled/patch, 0-20
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