ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME DIVISION OF COMMERCIAL FISHERIES NEWS RELEASE

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1 ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME DIVISION OF COMMERCIAL FISHERIES NEWS RELEASE Cora Campbell, Commssoner Jeff Regnart, Drector Contact: Cordova ADF&G Steve Mofftt, PWS Fnfsh Research Bologst 401 Ralroad Avenue Rch Brenner, PWS Assstant Fnfsh Research Bologst PO Box 669 Phone: (907) Cordova, AK Fax: (907) Date Issued: 1/15/ PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER RIVER SALMON DETAILED FORECAST Forecast Area: Prnce Wllam Sound Speces: Pnk Salmon (natural run only) Prelmnary Forecast of the 2014 Run Natural Producton Forecast Estmate (thousands) Forecast Range (thousands) Prnce Wllam Sound General Dstrcts Total Run 4, ,000 Escapement Goal a 1,160 All Harvests b 3, ,840 a The PWS pnk salmon escapement goal s the sum of the medan hstorcal even-years ( ) escapement for each dstrct n Prnce Wllam Sound wth a sustanable escapement goal (SEG). The escapement goals were changed n 2011 from a sngle sound-wde SEG to dstrct and brood lne specfc SEGs (frst mplementaton n 2012). The sum of dstrct specfc SEG ranges s mllon pnk salmon (medan of 1.45 mllon) for the odd-year brood lne and mllon pnk salmon (medan of 1.16 mllon) for the even-year brood lne. b Ths total ncludes the harvests from commercal, subsstence, and sport fsheres. Total natural run by year was estmated as the total natural (non-hatchery) contrbuton to commercal harvests combned wth the stream escapement ndex. The stream escapement ndex s calculated as the area under the curve of weekly aeral escapement surveys adjusted for estmates of stream lfe. No adjustments to the escapement ndex were made for aeral observer effcency, the proporton of the total escapement represented by the ndex streams, or the number of hatchery strays n streams. The natural pnk salmon contrbutons to the Commercal Common Property Fshery (CPF) were estmated by subtractng hatchery contrbutons from the CPF total. Hatchery contrbutons were determned by thermal marked otolth recoveres ( ), coded wre tag recoveres ( ), or average fry-to-adult survval estmates multpled by fry release numbers and estmated explotaton rates ( ). The 2014 forecast s based on an exponental smoothng and dampenng technque that s heavly dependent upon the total run sze of the prevous brood year (2012). Ths forecast method dffers from the 2013 forecast that used the average of the two prevous brood year returns (2009 and 2011) and the method that used lnear regressons of adult producton versus brood year escapement ndex. Pror to 1997, forecast methods employed surveys of preemergent fry; however, these surveys ended n The forecast model for 2014 was selected by comparng the mean Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 1 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

2 2014 PWS / Copper Rver Salmon Forecast January 2014 absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the standard devaton of the MAPE among the models examned (even return years ). The range for the total run forecast was calculated by: ( yˆ t ( mn/ max 1 1)) wth ( y ˆ y ) y where ŷt+1 s the forecast for the followng year based on the average of the prevous two even brood year s total run sze, σ mn/max s the mnmum and maxmum proportonal forecast error from all prevous forecasts usng ths same method ( ), σ s the proportonal forecast error for ndvdual past years and y and ŷ are the actual and forecast total run szes for ndvdual prevous years usng ths same method, respectvely. The predcted natural total run of pnk salmon n 2014 s a naïve forecast that uses a lag 1 exponental smoothng wth dampenng to mnmze MAPE. Begnnng n 2004, the department stopped producng hatchery pnk salmon forecasts because the hatchery operators were already producng forecasts for ther releases. Forecast methods examned for the 2014 natural run ncluded: 1) prevous even brood year total run (most naïve forecast method), 2) total run averages wth 2 10 years of data (even years), 3) lnear regresson of log-transformed total Prnce Wllam Sound (PWS) escapement versus log-transformed total PWS return by brood lne, and 4) lag 1 exponental smoothng and 5) lag 1 exponental smoothng wth dampenng. The 2014 forecast (lag 1 exponental smoothng wth dampenng) had the lowest MAPE for even brood year models examned, and lowest standard devaton of MAPE. None of the models examned for natural pnk salmon returnng n even-years produced forecasts wth MAPE values below 100%, resultng n consderable uncertanty n the forecast pont estmate. The brood year 2012 escapement ndex (1.13 mllon) was wthn the current SEG range (0.79 mllon 1.70 mllon) and was smlar to the medan of the observed even-year escapements snce 1960 (1.2 mllon). If the 2014 total run forecast (4.3 mllon) s realzed, t wll be smlar to the medan even brood year return snce Envronmental factors, whch lkely play a sgnfcant role n determnng pnk salmon returns n PWS, have been qute dynamc durng the past 5 6 years. A warm regme, concdng wth generally hgh productvty of salmon, began n approxmately Begnnng n 2007, ocean temperatures at GAK1 along the Seward lne were well below average (http://www.ms.uaf.edu/gak1/). The last few years have also been one of the longest perods of cold condtons, as measured by PDO ndex values, snce the 1970s (http://jsao.washngton.edu/pdo/). An El Nño event that spanned corresponded to a perod of postve PDO ndex values (http://www.elnno.noaa.gov/ndex.html) and the large number of pnk salmon returnng to PWS n 2010 spent much of ther ocean lves n warmer El Nño condtons. Wth the passng of the El Nño, PDO values agan became negatve n June of 2010 and reman negatve through November The 2013 average PDO ndex rank as the 26 th most negatve (coldest) n the last 100 years. Cold ocean condtons are generally assocated wth lower salmon productvty; however, there were very large runs n 2010 and Steve Mofftt, Area Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Rch Brenner, Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 2 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

3 2014 PWS / Copper Rver Salmon Forecast January 2014 Forecast Area: Prnce Wllam Sound Speces: Chum Salmon (natural run only) Prelmnary Forecast of the 2014 Run Natural Producton Forecast Estmate (thousands) Forecast Range (thousands) Prnce Wllam Sound General Dstrcts Total Run Escapement Goal a 200 Harvest Estmate b a ADF&G ntends to manage for the long-term average escapement to those dstrcts wth escapement goals; a total of 200,000 chum salmon for the Eastern, Northern, Coghll, Northwestern, and Southeastern dstrcts combned. The sum of the lower-bound sustanable escapement goals for these dstrcts s 91,000. b Includes the harvests from commercal, subsstence, and sport fsheres. We evaluated several naïve methods for the 2014 PWS natural chum salmon forecast, ncludng average run sze for the prevous 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 years and total run sze from the prevous year. From these models, total run sze from the prevous year had the lowest MAPE and was chosen as the forecastng method for The total natural run by year was estmated as the total commercal harvest contrbuton combned wth the escapement ndex. The escapement ndex s calculated as the area under the curve of weekly aeral escapement surveys adjusted for estmates of stream lfe. No adjustments to the escapement ndex were made for aeral observer effcency, the proporton of the total escapement represented by the ndex streams, or the number of hatchery strays n streams. The CPF harvest contrbutons of natural stock chum salmon were estmated usng pre-hatchery average natural runs (2002 and 2003) or thermally marked otolth estmates ( ) for each dstrct n PWS. The range for the total run forecast was calculated by: ( yˆ t ( mn/ max wth 1 1)) ( y ˆ y ) y where ŷt+1 s the forecast for the followng year based on the prevous year total run sze, σ mn/max s the mnmum and maxmum proportonal forecast error from all prevous forecasts usng ths same method ( ), σ s the proportonal forecast error for ndvdual past years and y and ŷ are the actual and forecast total run szes for ndvdual prevous years usng ths same method, respectvely. Begnnng n 2004, the department stopped producng hatchery chum salmon forecasts because the hatchery operators were already producng forecasts for ther releases. Our ablty to accurately forecast natural chum salmon stocks s lmted by the small amount of data avalable. Estmates of natural stock contrbutons to CPF were unavalable pror to From natural chum salmon contrbuton estmates based on thermally marked otolths were avalable for the Coghll and Montague dstrcts. Contrbuton estmates from thermally marked otolths n other dstrcts have been avalable snce Hstorcal natural chum salmon age data from escapements and CPF harvests are unavalable for most dstrcts of PWS. If the 2014 natural chum salmon forecast of 445,104 s realzed, t would be the 25th largest snce For comparson, the estmated total run sze was greater than 1.3 mllon from , but has not surpassed 1 mllon snce The cold ocean temperatures and negatve PDO ndex values dscussed prevously for pnk salmon may also negatvely affect the run of chum salmon n Steve Mofftt, Area Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Rch Brenner, Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 3 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

4 2014 PWS / Copper Rver Salmon Forecast January 2014 Forecast Area: Prnce Wllam Sound Speces: Sockeye Salmon (natural run only) Prelmnary Forecast of the 2014 Run Natural Producton Forecast Estmate (thousands) Forecast Range (thousands) Prnce Wllam Sound, Coghll Lake Total Run Escapement Goal a 30 Harvest Estmate b Prnce Wllam Sound, Eshamy Lake Total Run Escapement Goal c 21 Harvest Estmate b Total Producton Run Estmate Escapement Goal 51 Common Property Harvest b, d a The escapement goal of 30,000 for Coghll Lake s the medan of hstorcal escapement estmates and the sustanable escapement goal range s 20,000 60,000. The upper end was ncreased n 2011 from 40,000 to 60,000. b Includes the harvests from commercal, subsstence, and sport fsheres. c The escapement goal of 20,500 for Eshamy Lake s the mdpont of the bologcal escapement goal range (13,000 28,000). d The total harvest estmate does not nclude the 10-year average annual commercal harvest of approxmately 5,700 sockeye salmon n Unakwk Dstrct. The natural sockeye salmon run forecast to Coghll Lake s the total of estmates for 5 age classes. A lnear regresson model wth natural log-transformed data was used to predct returns of age-1.3 sockeye salmon. Ths lnear regresson model was parameterzed usng the hstorcal relatonshp between returns of age-1.3 sockeye salmon and returns of the age-1.2 fsh one year prevous (sblng model), whch are from the same brood year. For example, the model to predct the return of age-1.3 sockeye salmon n 2014 used the return of age-1.2 fsh n 2013 as the nput parameter. Predcted returns of age-1.1, -1.2, -2.2, and -2.3 sockeye salmon were calculated as the mean return of that age class. Harvest, escapement, and age composton data are avalable for Coghll Lake sockeye salmon runs snce 1962; however, ncluson of escapements pror to the nstallaton of a full wer n 1974 reduced forecast relablty. Therefore, only data collected snce 1974 were used to estmate model parameters, calculate ndvdual age class forecasts, and generate 80% predcton ntervals. An approxmate 80% predcton nterval for the total run forecast was calculated usng the squared devatons between the forecasts and actual runs as the forecast varance: ˆ / 2, 1 y t n MSE, where ŷ s the forecast predcton from the lnear regresson model descrbed above, t s the crtcal value, n s the sample sze and MSE s the mean squared error. Hstorcally, sblng model estmates of age-1.3 returns to Coghll Lake have a much lower MAPE (~34%) than the sblng model used to predct returns of age-1.2 fsh (~89%). The forecast of the natural sockeye salmon run to Eshamy Lake has hstorcally been based on an apparent 4-year cycle wth leap years beng the strongest run year. However, ths cycle has dmnshed n recent years, and the 2014 forecast s smply the average annual runs snce Eshamy Lake escapement has been enumerated at a wer snce 1950, except 1987, 1998, 2012, and Commercal harvest data are avalable for the same perod, but age composton data are Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 4 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

5 2014 PWS / Copper Rver Salmon Forecast January 2014 avalable for only some years after Data collected snce 1970, excludng 1987, 1998, 2012, and 2013 were used to calculate the forecast. In 2012 and 2013, a vdeo montorng system was tested to enumerate the sockeye salmon run to Eshamy Lake. The 80% predcton nterval was calculated usng the equaton descrbed for Coghll Lake sockeye salmon. PWS total run and common property harvest forecasts were calculated from the sum of Coghll and Eshamy lakes mdpont forecasts. The 80% predcton ntervals were calculated as the sum of the pont estmates plus/mnus the square root of the sum of the squared dfferences between the ndvdual pont estmates and 80% predcton ntervals for Coghll and Eshamy lakes. Begnnng n 2004, the department stopped forecastng hatchery runs of sockeye salmon to Man Bay Hatchery (MBH) because hatchery operators were already producng forecasts. Coghll Lake has dynamc lmnologcal characterstcs that sgnfcantly mpact the sockeye salmon populaton. Studes conducted n the md-1980s and early 1990s ndcated the lake may be zooplankton lmted. As a result, the bologcal escapement goal (BEG) mdpont was lowered n 1992 (from 40,000 to 25,000) to allow zooplankton populatons to recover. Fertlzers were added to the lake ( ) n a cooperatve project wth the U.S. Forest Servce to mprove the forage base for rearng sockeye salmon juvenles. In 2005, current data were revewed and the mdpont escapement goal remaned unchanged, but the goal type was changed from a BEG to an SEG. In 2002 the department began collectng lmnologcal data to montor basc lake characterstcs. In 2011, the upper end of the Coghll Lake SEG was ncreased from 40,000 to 60,000 (new range = 20,000 60,000). In 2012 the department began managng for the long-term medan escapement of 30,000. The Coghll Lake natural run escapement has been wthn or above the escapement goal range every year snce If acheved, the 2014 total run forecast mdpont (167,547) would be the 7 th largest run snce The majorty (120,900) of the overall Coghll Lake sockeye salmon forecast s predcted to come from age-1.3 fsh from the 2009 brood year. Few jacks were observed n 2013 relatve to other years, whch could ndcate a small run of age-1.2 sockeye salmon n However, there s consderable uncertanty n models used to estmate ths component of the run, and we opted to use the average total return of age-1.2 sockeye salmon (35,900) rather than sblng model estmates (13,100) for the 2014 forecast. Other factors that may nfluence the Coghll Lake sockeye salmon run n 2014 are the El Nño event (http://www.elnno.noaa.gov/ndex.html) and the trend towards cooler ocean temperatures dscussed for the pnk salmon forecast. Hstorcally, Eshamy Lake was the largest natural stock contrbutor to CPF harvests of sockeye salmon n PWS outsde of the Coghll Dstrct, and contrbuted to a substantal ncdental harvest by the purse sene fshery n the Southwestern Dstrct. Although escapements nto Eshamy Rver have been counted at a wer for 50 years, only perodc collecton of age, sex, and sze data has occurred for the Eshamy and Southwestern dstrcts CPF harvests because of nconsstent harvest and delvery locatons outsde of Cordova. Contrbutons to CPF harvests n western PWS of sockeye salmon produced by the MBH have been estmated by recovery of coded wre tags and thermally marked otolths. However, not all harvests can be adequately sampled, whch ncreases the uncertanty of total run estmates for all natural and enhanced sockeye salmon stocks n western PWS. Age composton data and wer counts were not collected n 1987, 1998, 2012, and 2013 because of budget constrants and are not antcpated to resume. The escapement goal for Eshamy Lake was revewed n 2008 and the range was changed. The new BEG range s 13,000 28,000 (mdpont 20,500). The old range was 20,000 40,000. Steve Mofftt, Area Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Rch Brenner, Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 5 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

6 2014 PWS / Copper Rver Salmon Forecast January 2014 Forecast Area: Copper Rver Speces: Chnook Salmon Prelmnary Forecast of the 2014 Run Natural Producton Forecast Estmate (thousands) Forecast Range (thousands) Total Run Escapement Goal a 27 Harvest Estmate b a The Chnook salmon spawnng escapement goal of 24,000 s a lower bound sustanable escapement goal. ADF&G ntends to manage for the estmated long-term average escapement of 27,000 Chnook salmon. b The maxmum harvest by all fsheres (subsstence, personal use, sport, and commercal) that allows achevng the average spawnng escapement of 27,000. The commercal common property harvest mdpont estmate s 22,000 and the 80% predcton nterval s 10,000 40,000. The Chnook salmon run forecast to the Copper Rver s the total of estmates for 8 age classes. A lnear regresson model wth natural log-transformed data was used to predct returns of age-1.3 Chnook salmon. Ths lnear regresson model was parameterzed usng the hstorcal relatonshp between returns of age-1.3 Chnook salmon and returns of the age-1.2 fsh one year prevous (sblng model), whch are from the same brood year. For example, the model to predct the return of age-1.3 Chnook salmon n 2014 used the return of age-1.2 fsh n 2013 as the nput parameter. Predcted returns of all other age classes of Chnook salmon were calculated as the average of the fve prevous returns. Estmates of commercal harvest of Chnook salmon to the Copper Rver date to 1890; however, relable estmates of nrver abundance are only avalable snce Therefore, only data collected snce 1999 were used to estmate model parameters, calculate ndvdual age class forecasts, and generate 80% predcton ntervals. The 80% predcton ntervals were calculated as the sum of the pont estmates for each age class plus/mnus the square root of the sum of the squared dfferences between the ndvdual pont estmates and 80% predcton ntervals for each age class. Hstorcally, sblng model estmates of age-1.3 returns to the Copper Rver have a much lower MAPE (~38%) than the sblng model used to predct returns of age-1.4 fsh (~68%); therefore, the only sblng model used was to predct age 1.3 fsh. The harvest forecast s the total run estmate mnus the average escapement of 27,000 snce 1980 as determned from catch-age analyss and mark-recapture pont estmates. The commercal harvest was calculated wth the projected total harvest multpled by the 5-year average proporton of harvest by the commercal fshery (~0.64). The department dd not generate a formal Chnook salmon total run forecast between 1998 and 2007 because of nadequate estmates of nrver abundance or spawnng escapement. Forecasts made pror to 1998 used aeral survey ndces adjusted to approxmate the total escapement. These forecasts performed poorly, especally after the number of aeral surveys was sgnfcantly reduced n In 1999 the Sport Fsh Dvson of the Alaska Department of Fsh and Game began a mark-recapture program to estmate the nrver abundance of Chnook salmon. The Natve Vllage of Eyak became a collaborator on the project and eventually took the lead role. There are currently 15 years ( ) of nrver abundance estmates. The 2014 total run forecast pont estmate of 62,000 s ~6.5 thousand less than the 15-year average total run sze ( average = 68.5 thousand). However, ths forecast s consderably larger than total runs snce 2008, whch have ranged from thousand. Several lnes of evdence suggest that the 2014 Chnook salmon run wll be larger than n recent years. Most mportantly, the 2013 estmated run of age 1.2 fsh (6,700) was the largest snce 2006 (9,600). Snce 1975, a run of ths many age-1.2 fsh has never been followed by fewer than approxmately 44,000 age-1.3 fsh. There was a record percentage of age-1.1 fsh (jacks) harvested uprver ndcatng the possblty of a strong run of age-1.2 fsh n Fnally, brood tables suggest that the weakness n recent runs was generally assocated wth fsh from the 2004 and 2005 brood years, whch have now all returned. If realzed, the 2014 forecast total run would rank 24 th n the recent 35 annual runs (snce 1980). Steve Mofftt, Area Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Rch Brenner, Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 6 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

7 2014 PWS / Copper Rver Salmon Forecast January 2014 Forecast Area: Copper Rver Speces: Sockeye Salmon Prelmnary Forecast of the 2014 Run Natural Producton Forecast Estmate (thousands) Forecast Range (thousands) Total Run 2,100 1,270 2,930 Escapement Goal a Upper Copper Rver 450 Copper Rver Delta 169 Common Property Harvest b 1, ,940 Hatchery and Supplemental Producton PWSAC - Gulkana Hatchery Hatchery Run Broodstock Needs 20 Supplemental Escapement c 100 Common Property Harvest b Total Producton Run Estmate 2,560 1,550 3,580 Natural Escapement Goal 619 Broodstock Needs 20 Supplemental Escapement c 100 Upper Copper Rver Inrver Goal d 699 Common Property Harvest e 1,800 1,080 2,530 a The upper Copper Rver escapement goal of 450,000 sockeye salmon s the hstorcal average spawnng escapement ( ). The new sustanable escapement goal (SEG) adopted n 2011 s 360, ,000. The adjusted Copper Rver Delta SEG s the average peak count from aeral surveys (84,500) multpled by 2 to adjust for proporton of the total number of fsh estmated by aeral observers. The SEG (55, ,000) s based on the sum of the unadjusted peak counts. b Includes harvests from commercal, subsstence, personal use, and sport fsheres. c Hatchery producton that wll not be harvested to ensure that natural escapement to the upper Copper Rver s acheved, because natural stocks cannot sustan the hgher explotaton rates of hatchery stocks. d The upper Copper Rver nrver goal categores nclude spawnng escapement (sockeye and other salmon); sport, subsstence, and personal use fshery harvests; and hatchery broodstock and supplemental escapement (5 AAC (b)). The nrver goal estmate s prelmnary untl uprver harvest estmates for 2013 are avalable. e The commercal common property harvest mdpont estmate s 1,600,000 sockeye salmon and the 80% predcton nterval s 880,000 2,320,000. The pont estmate for the total common property harvest s calculated as the forecast total run estmate mnus the sockeye salmon porton of the nrver goal and the Copper Rver Delta escapement goal. Forecast methods examned for natural Copper Rver sockeye salmon for 2014 ncluded 1) the prevous year s run sze (most naïve method), 2) mean total run sze estmates (2, 3, 4, 5, 10, and all year averages), 3) mean return of ndvdual age classes, and 4) regresson models of sblng relatonshps. The forecast of natural sockeye salmon to the Copper Rver s the total of estmates for 6 age classes. Lnear regresson models wth log-transformed data were used to predct returns for age-1.2, -1.3, and -2.2 sockeye salmon. These 3 age classes were predcted from the relatonshp between returns of that age class and returns of the age class one year younger from the same brood year (sblng model). The predcted return of age-1.1, -0.3, and -2.3 sockeye salmon were calculated as the 5-year ( ) mean return of those age classes. The total common property harvest forecast was calculated by subtractng the Gulkana Hatchery broodstock, hatchery surplus, and wld stock escapement goal needs (uprver and Copper Rver Delta) from the total run forecast. The commercal common property estmate was calculated by subtractng from the total run a prelmnary estmate of the nrver goal categores (5 AAC (b)) and the Copper Rver Delta spawnng escapement goal. The 80% predcton bounds for the total run and harvest forecast were calculated usng the method descrbed prevously for Coghll Lake sockeye Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 7 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

8 2014 PWS / Copper Rver Salmon Forecast January 2014 salmon, except only the years were used n the calculaton of mean squared error. Forecast models examned to predct the 2014 run to Gulkana Hatchery ncluded 1) age specfc smolt-to-adult survval estmate averages (3, 5, 10, and 36 years) appled to all releases combned. The selected forecast used the recent 5-year average fry-to-adult survval estmate (2.13%) from all Gulkana I and Gulkana II hatcheres released combned (onste and remote). The run was apportoned to brood year usng a maturty schedule of 13% age 4 and 87% age 5. An estmated explotaton rate of 70% was used to project the total harvest of Gulkana Hatchery stocks n The 80% predcton nterval for the forecast of supplemental producton was calculated usng the mean square error estmate of the total run descrbed above for Coghll Lake sockeye salmon. Forecasts pror to 1998 reled on the relatonshp between numbers of spawners and subsequent returns, usng returnper-spawner values for parent year abundance smlar to the domnant age class (age 5) of the forecast year. Because average return-per-spawner values do not reflect recent producton trends, and because returns are stll ncomplete from the recent brood years, lnear regressons of brood year sblng returns were used for forecasts begnnng n Addtonally, more precse estmates of survval and contrbutons from hatchery producton for brood years and release locatons were avalable from coded wre tag recoveres n harvests and escapements for brood years Hstorcal estmates of Gulkana Hatchery producton pror to 1995 are consdered mprecse. Improved contrbuton estmates for brood years ndcated large contrbutons from supplemental producton and smolt-to-adult survval estmates for Crosswnd Lake releases that averaged about 20%. Fsh marked wth strontum chlorde (Sr) began returnng n 2003 (age-4 fsh) and the majorty of the adult run (age-4 and age-5 fsh) was marked begnnng n Fsh from all release locatons (Gulkana I and Gulkana II hatchery stes and Crosswnd and Summt lakes) are now marked, but all fsh have the same mark. We can estmate the total contrbuton of enhanced fsh from all Gulkana Hatchery releases, but unless dfferent marks for ndvdual releases can be developed, forecasts usng smolt-to-adult survval estmates wll no longer be possble. The spawnng escapement goals for the upper Copper Rver and Copper Rver Delta were revewed n The upper Copper Rver spawnng escapement goal was changed from an SEG of 300, ,000 to 360, ,000. Ths change was because of the converson of Bendx sonar counts to DIDSON sonar equvalent counts and an update n the years used n the goal calculaton. There was no change to the Copper Rver Delta SEG of 55, ,000. The 2014 run wll be composed prmarly of returns from brood years 2009 and Fve-year-old fsh (brood year 2009) are expected to predomnate Copper Rver Delta and upper Copper Rver runs. The Copper Rver Delta escapement ndces for 2009 (68,622) and 2010 (83,285) were wthn the SEG range of 55,000 to 130,000. The Gulkana Hatchery run wll nclude fsh from Crosswnd Lake smolt mgratons of 1.4 mllon fsh n 2011 (3 rd largest n 24 years) and 0.97 mllon n 2012 (13 th largest). For brood years the average mgraton from Crosswnd Lake was 1.3 mllon smolt. The run wll also nclude 4-year-old fsh from a moderate Summt Lake smolt outmgraton (314,911 or 12 th largest n 29 years) and 5-year-old fsh from the small smolt outmgraton (94,123 or 19 th largest). The 2014 total run forecast (2.56 mllon) s smlar to the recent 5-year average total run (2.57 mllon). If realzed, the 2014 forecast total run would be the 8 th largest n the last 35 years (snce 1980). The 2.09 mllon natural run would be below the recent 5-year average (2.14 mllon), and a 0.47 mllon Gulkana Hatchery run would be slghtly above the recent 5-year average (0.42 mllon). The natural run forecast s drven by the large 4-year-old (age-1.2) fsh estmate n 2013 (623 thousand; largest snce 1965) and the subsequent predcton for 5-year-old (age-1.3) fsh n There have been 7 addtonal years wth run estmates of age-1.2 fsh greater than ~400,000. The return of age-1.3 fsh the followng year has been sgnfcantly larger than expected n 6 of the 7 years. The enhanced run forecast s drven by moderate smolt outmgraton numbers from both Crosswnd and Summt lakes, but recent good survvals. The nfluence of envronmental factors ncludng the cooler ocean temperatures that have predomnated snce September 2007, and the El Nño event (August 2009 to May 2010) are factors that ncrease the uncertanty n the 2014 run projecton. However, the man factor n the uncertanty of ths forecast s nputs to the model to predct the age-1.3 return are outsde the range of our hstorcal data. Steve Mofftt, Area Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Rch Brenner, Fnfsh Research Bologst, Cordova Alaska Department of Fsh and Game 8 Dvson of Commercal Fsheres

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