# Winter Steelhead Redd to Fish conversions, Spawning Ground Survey Data

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3 per redd; and the redd detection probability (the proportion of redds actually present that samplers identify). Redd detection probability is influenced by at least two factors. The likelihood of detecting a redd when it is present, influenced by survey conditions such as stream flow and water clarity. The likelihood of a redd created since the last survey visit being detectable during the subsequent survey visit, influenced by the number of days a redd is visible and the number of days between survey visits. What parameters would be expected in the fish to redd conversion methods? If each female steelhead produces a single redd, and you have a 50:50 sex ratio we would expect a 2.0 fish to redd ratio. If each female steelhead produces two redds (test and/or actual redds) and you have a 50:50 sex ratio we would expect a 1.0 fish to redd ratio. It is likely that female steelhead average somewhere between one and two redds produced per female. If redd detection probability is 100% (samplers identify every redd present), the expected Y intercept would be 0. The vagaries of sampling in a natural environment (weather and stream conditions) preclude perfect redd detection, thus surveyors miss some redds. Generally this undercounting of redds will result in overestimating the fish per redd rate (same number of fish but fewer redds observed). However, it is possible that in some of the surveys were no redds were detected, redds were actually present. While this outcome is a possibility, it seems unlikely that there are many sites where surveyors miss every redd for the year. Therefore, we would still expect the Y intercept should be essentially 0. The ANCOVA analysis provides a redd to steelhead conversion for non-smith River sites with variables (slope and intercept) that more closely match the observed data and are more biologically plausible than the linear regression (Table 2). Although, only the slope was statistically significant (Table 3), the Y intercept (3.74) is much closer to the expected value of 0 fish at 0 redds than the linear regression Y intercept of Neither the slope or Y Intercept adjustment of Smith River sites was statistically significant (Table 3). The ANCOVA conversion for Non-Smith River sites is: Total Steelhead = (1.70 * Redds) Future Plans: The variation in observed redd to fish conversion rates suggests temporal and possibly spatial differences in these rates (Figure 4). Thus, use of average or modeled conversion methods could lead to inaccurate annual estimates of winter steelhead spawners. Developing sites within the area to be monitored, that can provide annual estimates of redd to fish conversions, could address this issue. This type of approach is currently used by ODFW staff in monitoring North East Oregon steelhead (Dobos et. al 2013), and has been proposed for use in California (Gallagher et al. 2010).

5 Figures and Tables: Table 1. Oregon coastal winter steelhead monitoring methodology development sites and results, 1998 to 2002 (as reported in Jacobs et al Table 4-5). NH = Fishhawk Cr (Nehalem R); SR = Smith R (Umpqua R); SZ = Mill Cr (Siletz R); WF = W Fk Smith R (Umpqua R); YQ = Mill Cr (Yaquina R). Year Site Spawning Habitat (miles) Female Male Percent Female Redds Females / Redd Fish / Redd 1998 NH % SZ a % YQ % Avg. 46.8% NH % SZ a % YQ % Avg. 48.2% NH % YQ % SR a, b % 1, WF a % Avg. 58.3% SR a, b % 1, WF a % Avg. 55.3% SR a, b , % 1, WF a % Avg. 54.7% a = Monitoring site is not a complete barrier. Adult passage estimated using mark-recapture. b = Redd abundance estimated based on statistical sampling design. Table 2. Adult winter steelhead redd to fish conversion methods based on ODFW methodology development work in 1998 through 2002 (data reported in Table 1). Note, the Smith River site was also sampled in 2003, but the fish and redd estimates are not currently available for analysis. Method Regression Slope or Quotient Regression Y Intercept ANCOVA Linear Regression Average Quotient (AQ), All sites and Years AQ - Fishhawk Cr (NH), n= AQ Mill Cr, Siletz (SZ), n=

6 AQ - Mill Cr, Yaquina (SZ), n= AQ W FK Smith (WF), n= AQ - Fishhawk Cr (SR), n= Table 3. Results for ANCOVA analysis to predict winter steelhead spawners from redd counts. Based on ODFW methodology development work in 1998 through 2002 (Table 1). Estimate Std. Error T value P value Y Intercept Slope (fish/redd) < 0.01 Adjustments to slope and intercept for Smith River Y Intercept Slope (fish/redd) ,500 Total Sthd = 1.07 * Redds R 2 = ,000 Total Adult Steelhead 1,500 1, ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Redds Figure 1. Regression of total adult steelhead and total steelhead redds at all Oregon coastal winter steelhead monitoring methodology development sites for the years 1998 through 2002.

7 800 Total Sthd = 1.07 * Redds R 2 = Total Adult Steelhead Redds Figure 2. Close up of Figure 1, near origin. 4 Median = 1.64 Mean = 1.75 Regression Slope (Sthd / Redd) Observed Sthd / Redd 3 Count Fish per Redd Figure 3. Comparison of regression slope to observed steelhead per redd at all Oregon coastal winter steelhead monitoring methodology development sites for the years 1998 through.

8 5 4 Nehalem R., Fishhawk Cr. Siletz R, Mill Cr. Yaquina R., Mill Cr. Smith River West Fork Smith R. Adult Steelhead per Redd Spawner Run Year Figure 4. Total adult steelhead per redd at Oregon coastal winter steelhead monitoring methodology development sites for the years 1998 through Figure 5. ANCOVA predictions of total steelhead (+) from steelhead redds, compared to actual observed fish and redd abundance data (O) at methodology development sites. Blue line is regression with intercept; green line is forced through origin.

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