Coordinating adaptation in the Mekong Region
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1 Coordinating adaptation in the Mekong Region Dr Alex Smajgl 18 March 2013 CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
2 Climate Adaptation Flagship Goal To equip policy makers, industries and communities with practical and effective adaptation options to climate change and variability and, in doing so, create in the national interest $3 billion per annum in net benefits by
3 Research strategy delivers to sectoral clients Xiaoming Wang Craig James Mark Howden ~150 full time equivalents across ~300 staff members Operating since 2008, now ~$40m/y budget, ~35% external (Water issues in Water for Healthy Country Flagship) Bryson Bates
4 Adaptation science: 3 perspectives, all needed Adaptation information and decision-making Evaluation, adaptation pathways, future scenarios, risk management modes, etc Adaptive behaviours and institutions Behaviours, incentives, barriers, adaptive capacity, vulnerabilities, etc Adaptation options and technologies Cultivars, materials, farming systems, urban planning, etc
5 AusAID CSIRO Research for Development Alliance Overarching purpose Conduct research on complex systems interactions to help avoid unintended consequences of development, minimise trade-off losses and maximise synergies in the domains of climate change adaptation, water resources, sustainable urban development and food security. AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance Dr Alex Smajgl Page 5
6 The Alliance: Some key principles Addressing significant challenges [Relevance] Research that is cross-sectoral, multi-scale, transboundary, complex and involves trade-off decisions. CSIRO comparative advantage [Efficiency] Research for which CSIRO is best placed to harness the right skills, has good visibility (increasingly underpinned by local presence), where the partnership modality will be most effective, that lends itself to a Team Australia approach and allows for participatory design. AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance Dr Alex Smajgl Page 6
7 Current portfolio of projects 1. Exploring Mekong Region Futures 2. Climate Adaptation through Sustainable Urban Development 3. Climate projections: high resolution downscaling for Vietnam 4. Climate Adaptation Strategies for Rural Livelihoods in Indonesia 5. Bangladesh Integrated Water Resources Assessment 6. Food security through food system innovation AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance Dr Alex Smajgl Page 7
8 Exploring Mekong Region Futures Yunnan (ICRAF) Rubber-Reforestation-Biodiversity Lao PDR (IWMI/WREA) Water use in Nam Ngum catchment & Vientiane plain Thailand (SEI/RBO) Irrigation for north-eastern Provinces & climate change Cambodia (Aalto/TSA/SNEC) Impacts of mainstream dams on Tonle Sap Vietnam (Can Tho Uni/Prov) Mekong Delta adaptation to sea-level rise CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 8
9 CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 9
10 Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 10
11 Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 11
12 Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 12
13 Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 13
14 Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 14
15 Thailand Belief 4: IF inter-basin water diversions existed THEN income would increase CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 15
16 Thailand Belief 2: IF we invest in large-scale irrigation THEN poverty will decrease CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 16
17 Substantial impact of irrigation on income 50.0% Average household income 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Kalasin Mahasarakam Khon Kaen 0.0% -10.0% CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 17
18 Marginal impact of irrigation on poverty 0.00% Mahasarakham -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% Khon Kaen -0.40% -0.50% -0.60% Kalasin -0.70% CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 18
19 Vietnam Belief 2: IF soft policies are implemented THEN livelihoods improve CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 19
20 Vietnam Belief 3: IF hard policies are implemented THEN rice production increase and livelihoods will improve CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 20
21 Modern rice crops improve livelihoods Yields (tons ha -1 ) Salinity ( ) Rice production response and technological measures to adapt to salinity intrusion in the coastal Mekong delta Dang Kieu Nhan 1, Vu Anh Phap 2, Tran Huu Phuc 2 & Nguyen Hieu Trung 3 1 Agricultural Systems Department, Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, Can Tho University (CTU) 2 Crop Resources Management Department, Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, CTU 3 College of Environment and Natural Resources Management, CTU CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 21 Tolerant: Y = X X 2 Less tolerant: Y = X X 2 Sensitive: Y = X + 0.1X 2 Tolerant Less tolerant Sensitive
22 Shrimp can increase income by 50% Farming systems Total variable Gross return costs Rice Shrimp Rice Shrimp In million Vietnamese Dong Gross margin Benefit -cost ratio Two rice crops (n = 46) Rice shrimp (n = 48) CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 22
23 Cailon/Caibe + Hamluong/Cochien SLR 30 cm Upstream hydropower Irrigation extension Fres h < 2 g/l < 2-4 g/l < 4-10 g/l < g/l >20 g/l in 1,000 ha THE MEKONG FUTURE PROJECT FIRST DRAFT REPORT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION To Quang Toan 1, Nguyen Hieu Trung 2, Dang Kieu Nhan 3 1 Southern Institute of Water Resources Research 2 Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University 3 Mekong Delta Research Institute, Can Tho University. CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 23
24 Impact of droughts Fresh SLR 30 cm Upstream hydropower Irrigation extension Climate change (droughts) < 2 g/l < 2-4 g/l < 4-10 g/l < g/l >20 g/l in 1,000 ha THE MEKONG FUTURE PROJECT FIRST DRAFT REPORT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION To Quang Toan 1, Nguyen Hieu Trung 2, Dang Kieu Nhan 3 1 Southern Institute of Water Resources Research 2 Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University 3 Mekong Delta Research Institute, Can Tho University. CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 24
25 CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 25
26 Thank you CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences Alex Smajgl Senior Research Scientist t e alex.smajgl@csiro.au w MekongFutures.html CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
27 27 January 2010 Base Scen CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 27
28 07 November 2010 Base Scen CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 28
29 27 December 2010 Base Scen CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 29
30 Pending Decisions Nexus transboundary impacts Yunnan (ICRAF) Rubber-Reforestation-Biodiversity Lao PDR (IWMI/WREA) Water use in Nam Ngum catchment & Vientiane plain Thailand (SEI/RBO) Irrigation for north-eastern Provinces & climate change Cambodia (Aalto/TSA/SNEC) Impacts of mainstream dams on Tonle Sap Vietnam (Can Tho Uni/Prov) Mekong Delta adaptation to sea-level rise Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 30
31 Pending Decisions Nexus transboundary impacts Demanded: Impact assessment considering (a) cross sectoral trade-offs in (b) trans-boundary context Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 31
32 Pending Decisions Nexus transboundary impacts Demanded: Impact assessment considering (a) cross sectoral trade-offs in (b) trans-boundary context BUT equally important is a process that (a) bridges between science and decision making (b) facilitates learning on side of decision making Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 32
33 Lao Belief 1: IF Large scale irrigation schemes THEN Poverty decreases Climate, Energy & Poverty Dr Alex Smajgl Page 33
34 High income effects of irrigation (20-30% ) except Louangphrabang and Xiangkhoang CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 34
35 Irrigation has only marginal effects on poverty % Xaisomboun Vientiane [prefecture] Louangphrabang Bolikhamxai Vientiane Xiangkhoang CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 35
36 Low income effects of industry employment (3-6%) except Xaysomboun (14%) CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 36
37 Industry employment effective to alleviate poverty Vientiane [prefecture] Xiangkhoang Bolikhamxai Vientiane Louangphrabang Xaisomboun CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 37
38 Thailand Belief 2: IF More Sugarcane planted THEN Poverty decreases Climate, Energy & Poverty Dr Alex Smajgl Page 38
39 Evidence from the HH survey: Sugar cane has a greater net profit per ha than rice but NOT when debts included (p<0.05) Note: net profit per ha does NOT correlate with intention to adapt (p>0.05 and R 2 <0.06. Climate, Energy & Poverty Dr Alex Smajgl Page 39
40 Yunnan Belief 1: IF Government provides payments/compensations THEN Rubber expansion can be reversed Exploring Yunnan Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 40
41 Evidence from the model Area under Rubber % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Government compensation (Green rubber) Regulation (Monoculture rubber) Exploring Yunnan Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 41
42 Evidence from the model 1% Average household income Government payments -4% -9% -14% -19% -24% -29% Regulation -34% Exploring Yunnan Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 42
43 The Alliance: Key principles - 2 Tractability [Effectiveness] Research that has greater prospects of success because it is less sensitive to political events or circumstances, builds on good capacity of in-country partners and is supported by mature and effective trans-disciplinary partnerships. Alignment with Flagship Goals Research that generates benefits and impacts that can demonstrably be linked to achievement of Flagship goals. This includes capacity building and science impacts. AusAID-CSIRO Research for Development Alliance Dr Alex Smajgl Page 43
44 Cailon/Caibe SLR 30 cm Upstream hydropower Irrigation extension Fres h < 2 g/l < 2-4 g/l < 4-10 g/l < g/l >20 g/l in 1,000 ha THE MEKONG FUTURE PROJECT FIRST DRAFT REPORT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION To Quang Toan 1, Nguyen Hieu Trung 2, Dang Kieu Nhan 3 1 Southern Institute of Water Resources Research 2 Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University 3 Mekong Delta Research Institute, Can Tho University. CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Dr Alex Smajgl Page 44
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