Aquaculture growth potential in Azerbaijan

Transcription

1 Aquaculture growth potential in Azerbaijan Policy brief for FAO TCP/AZE/372/C2 Assessment of state-owned fish farms for sustainable development of the aquaculture sector in Azerbaijan (prepared by Junning Cai) November, 218 1

2 Azerbaijan: a landlocked developing country Russian Federation Countries (Year 215) Population (million) GDP per capita (current USD) Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Iran (Islamic Republic of) Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Source: United Nations Population Division; International Monetary Fund Image 218 Slide #2

3 Contribution of fish to food and nutrition 3

4 Highlights on the contribution of fish to food and nutrition in Azerbaijan Fish contributes a small, declined portion of animal protein in Azerbaijan (slides #5, #6 and #7). In 213, per capita animal protein intake in Azerbaijan (3 g/capita/day) is close to the world average (32 g/capita/day), yet the fish share in its animal protein (2 percent) is far below the world average 16 percent. Indeed, the country s fish share in animal protein was the lowest compared to its neighbouring countries or the regional average (slide #5). The contribution of fish to animal protein in Azerbaijan declined from 5 percent to 2 percent during (slide #6), whereas the world average fish share remained stable at 16 percent during the period (slide #7). While domestic fish production used to be the main source of fish supply in Azerbaijan, its fish consumption in recent years relied nearly entirely on import (slides #8 and #9). In 1993, domestic fish production was the dominant source of fish supply in Azerbaijan the country actually had a positive net export in Yet, because of the downward trend of the domestic production since the 2s, the country s fish supply relied mostly on net import in 213 (slide #8). Azerbaijan people consumed 26 tonnes (live weight equivalent) of fish and seafood in 213; nearly all of which (96 percent) was from import. The contribution of domestic capture fisheries and aquaculture production was 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively (slide #9). Slide #4

5 Contribution of fish to animal protein in 213 Per capita animal protein intake Countries Fish share g/capita/day (%) Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Iran (Islamic Republic of) Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Western Asia 32 7 Landlocked developing countries 17 7 World Fish share in animal protein intake (%) Low fish contribution to animal protein in Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Fish - Year 213 Bubble size measuring population Coordinate origin represent the world average Per capita animal protein intake (g/capita/day) African countries Countries in the Americas Asian countries European countries Oceanian countries Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1). Slide # 5

6 Azerbaijan: fish contribution to animal protein intake declined from 5 percent to 2 percent Shellfish % Azerbaijan Shellfish % Milk 53% Eggs 7% Milk & eggs 6% Finfish 5% Fish & seafood 5% 1993: Per capita protein intake (g/capita/day) Bovine Meat 2% Meat 35% Pigmeat 1% Mutton & Goat Meat 7% Poultry Meat 7% Other meat % Milk 5% Eggs 8% Milk & eggs 58% Finfish 2% Fish & seafood 2% 213: 29.4 Per capita protein intake (g/capita/day) Bovine Meat 18% Meat 4% Pigmeat % Mutton & Goat Meat 1% Poultry Meat 12% Other meat % Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1). Slide # 6

7 World: contribution of fish to animal protein intake remaining stable at around 17 percent Finfish 14% Shellfish 2% Bovine Meat 15% World Finfish 14% Shellfish 3% Bovine Meat 11% Eggs 8% Milk 28% Fish & seafood 16% Milk & eggs 36% 1993: Per capita protein intake (g/capita/day) Meat 48% Poultry Meat 13% Pigmeat 16% Mutton & Goat Meat 3% Eggs 9% Milk 27% Fish & seafood 17% Milk & eggs 36% 213: 3.79 Per capita protein intake (g/capita/day) Meat 47% Pigmeat 15% Poultry Meat 17% Mutton & Goat Meat 2% Other meat 1% Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1). Other meat 2% Slide #7

8 Main source of fish supply: domestic production in the 199s vs. import in the 21s 3 Fish supply and utilization in Azerbaijan ( ) 25 2 tonnes Domestic food supply Net import Total food consumption Net export Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1); Slide #8

9 A snapshot in 213: nearly all fish supply in Azerbaijan coming from import Fish supply in Azerbaijan in 213 (total 26 tonnes; live weight equivalent) Aquaculture, 325, 1% Import, , 96% Capture fisheries, 796, 3% Domestic production, 1121, 4% Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1); FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module (WAPI-AQPRN v.218.1). Slide #9

10 Domestic fish market (fish consumption) 1

11 Highlights on the domestic fish market in Azerbaijan Azerbaijan had a low yet declined per capita fish consumption (slides #13 and #14). Per capita fish consumption in Azerbaijan declined from 3. kg/capita/year (live weight equivalent) in 1993 to 2.8 kg/capita/year in 213, which was lower than the neighbouring countries, the regional average and the world average (slides #13 and #14). (Total) fish consumption in Azerbaijan increased because of population growth (slide # 15). While per capita fish consumption in Azerbaijan declined 9 percent during from 3. kg/capita/year to 2.8 kg/capita/year, its total fish consumption nevertheless increased 13 percent during the period from 23 tonnes to 26 tonnes (live weight equivalent) because of its 24 percent population growth from 7.6 million to 9.4 million during the period (slide # 15). Slide #11

12 Highlights on the domestic fish market in Azerbaijan (continued) Various projections of future fish demand in Azerbaijan (slide #16). Income and population growth in Azerbaijan would tend to drive the country s total domestic fish demand up from 26 tonnes in 213 to 3 tonnes in 22, 33 tonnes in 225 and 36 tonnes in 23. Suppose that per capita fish demand in Azerbaijan in 225 reaches the baseline average level of landlocked developing countries (i.e kg/capita/year), its total fish demand in 225 would be 44 tonnes. Suppose that per capita fish demand in Azerbaijan in 23 reaches the baseline Western Asia average (i.e kg/capita/year), its total fish demand in 23 would be 85 tonnes. Suppose that per capita fish demand in Azerbaijan in 25 reaches the baseline world average (i.e kg/capita/year), its total fish demand in 25 would be 219 tonnes. Per capita fish consumption can rise with the expansion of fish production (slide #17). As Armenia s fish production increased more than 1 folds during from 1 46 tonnes to tonnes, its per capita fish consumption tripled from 1.46 kg to 4.51 kg (slide #17). This example indicates that the 4.24 kg/capita/year (i.e. landlocked developing countries average) in 225 tends to be an achievable target in Azerbaijan. Slide #12

13 Per capita fish consumption in 213 Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Countries Iran (Islamic Republic of) Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Per capita fish consumption Annual growth kg/capita/year rate during (%) Western Asia 8..1 Landlocked developing countries World Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1). Low per capita fish consumption (both status and trend) in Azerbaijan Annual growth rate of per capita fish consumption from 1993 to 213 (%) Fish - Year 213 Bubble size measuring population Coordinate origin represent the world average Azerbaijan Per capita fish consumption in 213 (kg/capita/year) African countries Countries in the Americas Asian countries European countries Oceanian countries Slide #13

14 Azerbaijan: per capita fish consumption lower than neighboring countries Azerbaijan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Armenia Georgia Per capita fish consumption in 213 Countries kg/capita/year Azerbaijan 2.8 Armenia 4.5 Georgia 8.6 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 1. Kazakhstan 4.7 Turkmenistan 3.6 Russian Federation 22.8 Western Asia 8. Landlocked developing countries 4.2 World 19.9 Kazakhstan Iran (Islamic Republic of) Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1). Slide #14

15 Increased fish consumption in Azerbaijan driven by population growth Fish consumption in Azerbaijan (tonnes; live weight equivalent) Population (million) Fish consumption (tonnes) Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1); Slide #15

16 Domestic fish demand projections Projections of future domestic fish demand in Azerbaijan Fish demand projection Per capita fish demand (kg/capita/year) % growth relative to the baseline 213 (baseline) Income-driven per capital demand growth 1 Regional/global per capita consumption benchmark Population (million) % growth relative to the baseline Domestic fish demand (tonnes/year) % growth relative to the baseline According to the estimation in FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 67 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps, income growth in Azerbaijan (measured by growth in per capita GDP) would drive up its per capita fish demand by 6.3 percent during the five years from the mid-21s to the early 22s (i.e percent a year). Thus, the income-driven per capita fish demand growth would be 9 percent during (7 year), 15 percent during (12 year), and 21 percent during (17 years). 2. Per capita fish demand equal to the landlocked developing countries average in Per capital fish demand equal to the Western Asia average in Per capita fish demand equal to the world average in Based on United Nations population projection (217 revision) 6. Equal to per capital fish demand x population Slide #16

17 An example of supply-driven growth in fish consumption Growth in per capita fish consumption in Armenia tonnes kg/capita/year Fish production (tonnes) Per capita fish consumption (kg/capita/year) Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1); Slide #17

18 Foreign fish market (export) 18

19 Highlights on the fish export of Azerbaijan Fish export has declined more than production in Azerbaijan (slide #2). As the fish production in Azerbaijan declined from 2 tonnes in 1994 to 1 1 tonnes in 213, its export followed the downward trend declining from 3 23 tonnes (live weight equivalent) to 36 tonnes in 213 (slide #2). Accordingly, the ratio of the export to the production declined from 16 percent to 3 percent (slide #2), which indicates that the export decline is proportionally greater than the production decline. In general, fish export accounted for a small portion of fish production in Azerbaijan with the 16 percent average ratio and 37 percent maximum ratio (slide #2). Aquaculture species contribute little to Azerbaijan fish export (slides #21 and #22). While Azerbaijan fish export in 216 comprised only 11 tonnes (product weight) of sardines, multiple species have been exported by the country during Yet these species are primarily from capture fisheries (slide #21). It appears that Azerbaijan exported 48 tonnes (product weight) of salmons/trouts/smelts in 28 (slide #21). This is puzzling because the production data indicate that the country had little production of this species group in 28. It appears that Azerbaijan exported 993 tonnes (product weight) of miscellaneous freshwater fishes in 1997 (slide #21). Yet it is unclear what the exact species are. Similar to the previous case for salmons/trouts/smelts, the trade data do not appear consistent with the production data. Although Azerbaijan has no past experience in exporting aquaculture products, experiences in other countries (e.g. Armenia and Iran) indicate that when aquaculture product expands, export tend to follow (slide #22). Slide #19

20 Declined fish export in Azerbaijan Fish export of Azerbaijan (tonnes; live weight equivalent) tonnes % Export (tonnes) Production (tonnes) Ratio of export to production (%) Source: FAO WAPI Fish Consumption Module (WAPI-FISHCSP v.218.1); Slide #2

21 Species composition in Azerbaijan s fish export 4 35 Azerbaijan fish export (tonnes; product weight) Marine fishes not identified, 3362 Azerbaijan fish export (tonnes; product weight) Average Maximum 216 Marine fishes not identified Herrings, sardines, anchovies Miscellaneous freshwater fishes Cods, hakes, haddocks Salmons, trouts, smelts Flounders, halibuts, soles Others All species Miscellaneous freshwater fishes, Herrings, sardines, anchovies, 168 Salmons, trouts, smelts, 48 Herrings, sardines, anchovies, 11 Source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global Fisheries commodities production and trade (FishstatJ). Marine fishes not identified Miscellaneous freshwater fishes Salmons, trouts, smelts Others Herrings, sardines, anchovies Cods, hakes, haddocks Flounders, halibuts, soles Slide #21

22 Trout production and export in Armenia and Iran Armenia Iran (Islamic Republic of) Production (tonnes; live weight) Production (tonnes; live weight) Export (tonnes; product weight) Export (tonnes; product weight) Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module (WAPI-AQPRN v.218.1). fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/wapi/en and UNCOMTRAD Slide #22

23 Aquaculture production 23

24 Highlights on aquaculture development in Azerbaijan Declined aquaculture production in Azerbaijan (slides #25 and #26). Azerbaijan is one of a few countries with their aquaculture production declined during (slide #25). Among the 6 neighbouring countries of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan had declined aquaculture production during , whereas Armenia, Iran (Islamic Republic of) and Russian Federation increased their production during the period (slide #26). Increased share of aquaculture in fish production in Azerbaijan (slide #27). While aquaculture production in Azerbaijan declined from 1 2 tonnes to 64 tonnes during , the share of aquaculture in the country s fish production nevertheless increased from 5 percent to nearly 5 percent during the period (slide #27). Species composition in Azerbaijan s aquaculture and fisheries (slides #28 and #29). Carp species accounted for half of Azerbaijan s 64 tonnes aquaculture production in 216, and rainbow trout accounted for the other half (slide #28). Sprats/shads accounted for nearly 6 percent of Azerbaijan s 676 tonnes of capture fisheries production in 216. Carp species accounted for 3 percent, and the rest are other freshwater species (slide #28). Carps, trouts and sturgeons are three main aquaculture species groups in Azerbaijan and neighbouring countries (slide #29). Slide #24

25 Declined aquaculture production in Azerbaijan ( ) Annual growth rate of aquaculture production during (%) Bubble size measuring population Azerbaijan Aquaculture production in 216 (tonnes) African countries Countries in the Americas Asian countries European countries Oceanian countries Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module (WAPI-AQPRN v.218.1). Slide #25

26 Aquaculture development: Azerbaijan vs. neighboring countries Aquaculture production (tonnes) Aquaculture production in 216 Countries Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Armenia Russian Federation Iran (Islamic Republic of) Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module (WAPI-AQPRN v.218.1). Slide #26

27 Increased contribution of aquaculture to total fish production in Azerbaijan 25 Azerbaijan aquaculture and fisheries production Production (tonnes) Share (%) Aquaculture production (tonnes) Capture fisheries production (tonnes) % of aquaculture in fish production Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module (WAPI-AQPRN v.218.1). Slide #27

28 Species composition in Azerbaijan s aquaculture and fisheries production Azerbaijan aquaculture and fisheries production in 216 Aquaculture Capture fisheries Species tonnes % Species tonnes % All All Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Shads Carps Black and Caspian Sea sprat (Clupeonella cultriventris) Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) Caspian shads (Caspialosa spp) Freshwater bream (Abramis brama) Carps Crucian carp (Carassius carassius) Kutum (Rutilus frisii) Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) Roach (Rutilus rutilus) Silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) Freshwater bream (Abramis brama) Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) Crucian carp (Carassius carassius) 4.6 Asp (Aspius aspius) 2.3 Others Mullets nei (Mugilidae) Freshwater gobies nei (Gobiidae) 4.6 Wels(=Som) catfish (Silurus glanis) 4.6 Pike-perch (Sander lucioperca) 3.4 Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module (WAPI-AQPRN v.218.1). Slide #28

29 Species composition in aquaculture: Azerbaijan vs. neighbouring countries Species composition in terms of quantity (%) 1% 9% 8% 7% % 5% 4% 3% 2% % % Azerbaijan Iran (Islamic Republic of) Russian Federation 15 Armenia Kazakhstan Georgia Turkmenistan Carps Salmons/trouts Sturgeons Others Source: FAO WAPI Aquaculture Production Module (WAPI-AQPRN v.218.1). Slide #29

30 Import 3

31 Fish import in Azerbaijan Most fish import in Azerbaijan is substitutable by domestic production. Azerbaijan imported 15 tonnes (product weight) of fish and seafood in 216 (slide #31). Most of the imported products (e.g. frozen mackerels, frozen blue whitings, frozen trouts, frozen tilapia fillets, frozen catfish, etc.) are substitutable by domestic fish products. Some imported products (such as Atlantic salmon and shrimps/prawns) are less substitutable by domestic fish production. Yet the share of these products appear to be less than 2 percent of the total import. In other words, more than 8 percent of fish import in Azerbaijan could be substituted by domestic production. Azerbaijan fish import 216 Species Tonnes (product weight) Miscellaneous pelagic fishes Salmons, trouts, smelts Herrings, sardines, anchovies Cods, hakes, haddocks Marine fishes not identified Miscellaneous freshwater fishes Shrimps, prawns Tilapias and other cichlids 22 1 Other species All species % Source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global Fisheries commodities production and trade (FishstatJ). Slide #31

32 Conclusion 32

33 Conclusion Aquaculture in Azerbaijan has declined nearly 5 percent in the past two decades. The decline in fish production (including both aquaculture and fisheries) in Azerbaijan has reduced its already low per capita fish consumption. Fish consumption in Azerbaijan depends primarily on import. This situation creates a great potential for aquaculture development in the country through import substitution. A rough estimation indicates that the demand for domestic aquaculture products in Azerbaijan could reach 21 tonnes in 225, including tonnes demand for carps, tonnes for trouts, and tonnes for sturgeons. The macro assessment here needs to be refined and supplemented by further assessment of the aquaculture value chain in Azerbaijan at the micro level in order to facilitate the design of appropriate policy and plans for its aquaculture development. Aquaculture growth potential in Azerbaijan Indicators 225 Notes Per capita fish demand (kg/capita/year) 3.19 Population (million) 1.4 See slide #16 Domestic fish demand (tonnes/year) minus 2 percent less substitutable import (tonnes/year) See slide #31 minus potential capture fisheries production (tonnes/year) Aquaculture production potential (tonnes/year) Carps (15 to 53 percent) Trouts (14 to 55 percent) Sturgeons (4 to 28 percent) tonnes tonnes tonnes Measured by the average capture fisheries production during ) - see slide #27 Domestic fish demand minus import minus capture fisheries production Based on aquaculture species composition in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan (see slide #29) Slide #33