Global fishmeal and fish oil supply - inputs, outputs, and markets

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1 Global fishmeal and fish oil supply - inputs, outputs, and markets C.J. Shepherd & A.J. Jackson 9 May 2012

2 Mass Balance of marine ingredients production 2010 Whole Fish 13,886 Total 18,515 By-Products 4, ,166 IFFO estimates Water Steam 13,479

3 INDUSTRIAL GRADE FORAGE Landings tonnes Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) 479,000 Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) 212,000 Sand-eel (Ammodytes spp.) 486,500 Total 1,175,000 tonnes of which 100% converted FOOD GRADE FORAGE Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) 8,468,000 Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) 1,567,000 South African anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) 228,000 Sprat (Sprattus sprattus) 262,000 Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) 678,500 Capelin (Mallotus villosus) 958,500 Total 12,162,000 tonnes of which an estimated 90% was converted PRIME FOOD FISH Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) 656,500 European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) 639,000 Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyii) 1,870,000 Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicas) 320,000 Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) 1,403,500 Californian sardine (Sardina sagax caerulea) 556,000 South African sardine (Sardina sagax) 263,000 Landed volumes (greater than 200K tonnes) of fish species used for reduction (average of ) classified by their degree of acceptability as human food Total 5,708,000 tonnes (average landings ) of which an unknown percentage was converted after Wijkström, 2011

4 Raw material for global marine ingredients production % Raw material sources for fishmeal 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% By-products Whole wild fish 30% 20% 10% 0% IFFO estimates

5 tonnes,000 Global fishmeal and fish oil production (tonnes x 10 3) Fishmeal Fish Oil El Niňo IFFO data

6 Fishmeal and fish oil production shows slow decline but continues to be dominated by production in South America. Production in Europe has continued to decrease IFFO data

7 Chinese fishmeal production plus imports 1986 to 2010 (tonnes x 10 3 ) Production Imports IFFO Data

8 Changing uses of fishmeal 1960 to 2010

9 Estimated use of fishmeal by sector in 2010 The estimated use of fishmeal by sector 2010 Pigs 20% Others 2% Chickens 5% Aquaculture 73% IFFO estimates

10 Trend in weekly price ratio of fishmeal to soyabean meal 1993 to March 2012 IFFO data

11 Changing use of fish oil from hydrogenated fat to aquaculture and direct human consumption Changing uses of fish oil 20% % % 24% % 80% 16% 59% 3% 71% Clockwise from the top Hardened Edible Aquafeed Industrial Refined Edible IFFO estimates

12 Fish Oil usage (tonnes x 10 3 ) * 1,200 1, Other uses Crude Oil human consumption Aquaculture IFFO & GOED data * 2011 is an estimate

13 Changing composition of salmon feeds over time with substitution of fishmeal & fish oil 100% 90% 80% Fish oil 70% 60% 50% Alternative proteins and starch 40% 30% 20% Fish meal 10% 0% Fish meal Alternative proteins and starch Fish oil Vegetable oils N. Alsted pers. comm.

14 Fishmeal and fish oil consumption in relation to growth of fed aquaculture 2000 Global Aquaculture 2010 Production (tonnes with fishmeal x 10 6 ) and fish oil usage tonnes millions Fed Aquaculture Fish meal in aquaculture Fish Oil in aquaculture Data FAO & IFFO

15 Estimated changes in Whole Fish-In:Whole Fish-Out (FIFO) ratios based on mass balance; also % increases in farmed production Farmed Fed Category Production increase % Eels Salmonids Marine fish Crustacea including shrimps & crabs Tilapia Other fed freshwater fish (e.g. catfish & pangasius) Fed Cyprinids Total for fed Aquaculture Aquaculture now uses approximately 10 million tonnes of whole fish in fishmeal & fish oil to produce 30 million tonnes of farmed product Based on FAO & IFFO data

16 Likely trends in supply and use of fishmeal and fish oil going forward Continuing move to precautionary fishery management as well as to using fish for direct human consumption instead of fishmeal production Increasing trend towards use of certification by marine ingredients producers to reassure value chain on sustainability/responsible stock management At most a static supply of marine ingredients (~ 5 M tonnes pa fishmeal + 1 M tonnes pa fish oil) going forward but with an increasing proportion of fishery by-products Continuing switch to greater added value use (eg to aquaculture for fishmeal instead of agriculture; and direct human consumption products for fish oil) Continuing growth in demand for aquaculture feed, but accompanied by a continuing trend towards substitution of marine ingredients and to their use as strategic ingredients being restricted to critical stages in the life cycle Emergence of new sources of raw material - It is unlikely that LC omega-3 demand will be met by GM crop expression in next 5 years, whereas algal oil is already entering the human nutritional and pharmaceutical segments

17 Likely trends in supply and use (contd.) Increasing fish oil demand for direct human consumption will mean reduced availability for aquaculture which will therefore result in lower LC omega-3 levels in aquaculture products From 2000 to 2010 the FIFO ratio for fed aquaculture has fallen from 0.6:1 to 0.3:1 It seems likely that even so-called carnivorous fish will increasingly be commercially farmed so as to yield a net production of fish protein and oil It seems unlikely that there is a fishmeal trap and that aquaculture growth will be limited by the availability of marine ingredients There are still areas for improvement the largest being the use of low value/trash fish fed raw to aquaculture in S E Asia Increasing focus on micronutrients in fish raw materials to extend their availability and usefulness and create new added value products

18 Thank you C.J. Shepherd & A.J. Jackson International Fishmeal & Fish Oil Organisation