INVESTING IN SUSTAINABLE FISHING CAN SPARK GLOBAL FISHERIES RECOVERY

Transcription

1 INVESTING IN SUSTAINABLE FISHING CAN SPARK GLOBAL FISHERIES RECOVERY

2 Source: FAO Status of World Fisheries & Aquaculture 2014

3 Source: Pauly and Zeller, 2016

4 Modified from V. Hickey; Source: FishStat model projection

5 overexploited fully exploited collapsed developing rebuilding Modified from Lubchenco; FAO data, Pauly 2013 Nature, adapted from Pauly 2007 AMBIO

6 WHAT IF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IN FISHERIES WAS POSSIBLE?

7 Gulf of Mexico Red Snapper New management implemented Source:

8 TODAY S PANELISTS: RAY HILBORN, University of Washington NIGEL EDWARDS, Icelandic Seachill CHRISTOPHER KNOWLES, European Investment Bank

9 Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn + Collaborators 1 EBM Tools Webinar December 2, Including Trevor Branch, Reniel Cabral, Tyler Clavelle, Steve Gaines, Amanda Leland, Mike Melnychuk, Dan Ovando, Doug Rader, Kent Strauss, Cody Szuwalski, Matt Elliott and CEA. Thanks to Helmsley Trust, Waitt Foundation, & Packard Foundation for financial support. Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

10 Focal Questions What are the effects of global fishery recover? Food? Profit? Conservation? What are the distributional effects? What is the timing-to-recovery? Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

11 Focal Questions What are the effects of global fishery recover? Food? Profit? Conservation? What are the distributional effects? What is the timing-to-recovery? Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

12 Focal Questions What are the effects of global fishery recover? Food? Profit? Conservation? What are the distributional effects? What is the timing-to-recovery? Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

13 Focal Questions What are the effects of global fishery recover? Food? Profit? Conservation? What are the distributional effects? What is the timing-to-recovery? Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

14 Project Scope Compile Database RAM, FAO, SOFIA databases Remove overlapping and unusable stocks Estimate Current Status Panel regression model & Catch-MSY Biological parameters NEI stocks Develop Policy Options Value maximization Optimize with Catch Shares F MSY Business as usual (BAU) Project Policy Outcomes For all stocks Project to 2048 Discount rate=5% Project Flowchart Upside from Recovering Global Fisheries Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Analyze Upside Relative to today and to BAU Harvest Profits (NPV) Biomass Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

15 Global Wild Fish Production Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

16 Biology: Fish Growth Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

17 Bioeconomics: Optimal Condition Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

18 Institutional Reforms Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

19 Policies Business as Usual (BAU) Reformed fisheries -economic maximization RAM fisheries (not reformed) continued fishing mortality rate Other fisheries bionomic equilibrium BAU conservation concern Only stocks of conservation concern FMSY Rights based management RBFM Economic optimization

20 A Model of Global Fishery Reform Stock-by-stock analysis (4,718 fisheries worldwide) Economics data, ecological data Current status estimates Projections under different management scenarios Effects and tradeoffs between: Food Profits Conservation Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

21 Global Coverage of Database Included 77% 23% Unaccounted Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

22 Major Tuna species

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24 Small Pelagics

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26 Whitefish

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28 Kobe Plots for select regions Globa l Northeast Pacific F FMSY Northeast Atlantic Western Central Pacific B B MSY Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

29 Upside Results by Country (Relative to BAU) Change Annual Profit ($ Billion) Change in Annual Profit ($ Billion) 14 Change in Catch (MMT) MSY (MMT, of conservation concern) China Chin a Mala ysia Thailand Viet Nam S. Korea Taiwan Indonesia India Japan Philippines A Change in Biomass (MMT) 0 Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

30 Overall Global Upside Results Annual Profit ($ Billions) 80 RBFM 70.6 RBFM F MSY F MSY BA U 58.2 Today BA U Policy applied to stocks of conservation concern Policy applied to all stocks Biomass (MMT) Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn 1200 Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

31 Timing of Recovery % Stocks above B/Bmsy of 0.8 Mean time to recovery = 10 years Profit/year ($ Billion) RBF M F MSY Total harvest (MMT) BAU (conservation concern) BAU (all stocks) Year Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

32 Intensity of fisheries management Research Management landings data body size or age data surveys to monitor trends in abundance stock assessments objectives and fishery management plan regulations to limit fishing pressure capacity to adjust regulations and fishing pressure Enforcement dockside monitoring and at-sea observers penalties and compliance protection of sensitive habitats discarding and by-catch measures Socioeconomics controls on access and entry transparency community involvement capacity-enhancing subsidies

33 % change, 2050 RBFM relative to status quo projections for 2050 % change under fishery reform Predicted changes from fishery reform 400% 300% R² = 0.66 Catch Biomass Profits 200% 100% 0% R² = 0.60 R² = % Intensity of Fisheries Management FGI

34 Management Costs Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

35 Summary of Results Global triple-bottom-line is possible 2 : Harvest increases 20 MMT Biomass increases 792 MMT Profit increase $68 Billion Median recovery time is 10 years Consistent set of management interventions achieve results Countries and types of fisheries that have not yet reformed fisheries have the most to gain 2 These results are relative to BAU and scaled-up for missing data. Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

36 Thank You! Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

37 INVESTING IN SUSTAINABLE FISHING CAN SPARK GLOBAL FISHERIES RECOVERY Nigel Edwards 1 st February 2016

38 Outline Who we are and what we do Time line of Fisheries Improvement Collaboration delivers change in the sea The importance of local Looking ahead with confidence

39 300m Wetfish Smoked Coated Ready To Eat 1100 Employees Grimsby UK 4 Sites

40 Icelandic Seachill Delivery - Trust

41 Timeline of Fisheries Improvement Scientists show global challenge of fisheries MSC Born Certification begins FIPs Private sector / NGO / regulator partnerships formed Sunken Billions Report EU IUU Regulation New models for funding transition to sustainability CFP reform Responsible Fishing Scheme

42 Well Managed Fisheries - Northeast Arctic cod stocks at an all-time high Fishing mortality at the lowest level since 1990 comparable with levels seen in the late 1940s

43 Project Inshore

44 Thank you

45 Finance for climate action Over EUR 90bn for climate action in (EUR 20.6bn in 2015) EUR 200m to the fisheries sector in last five years EIB Climate Action financing Annual lending tripled between 2010 and 2014, with 95% of loans made within the EU and 5% outside the EU.

46 Summary of Results Global triple-bottom-line is possible 2 : Harvest increases 20 MMT Biomass increases 792 MMT Profit increase $68 Billion Median recovery time is 10 years Consistent set of management interventions achieve results Countries and types of fisheries that have not yet reformed fisheries have the most to gain 2 These results are relative to BAU and scaled-up for missing data. Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery