STOCK ASSESSMENT OF YELLOWFIN TUNA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UPDATE OF 2011 STOCK ASSESSMENT. January 1975 December 2011
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1 STOCK ASSESSMENT OF YELLOWFIN TUNA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UPDATE OF 2011 STOCK ASSESSMENT January 1975 December 2011
2 Outline Stock assessment (base case model) Methodology (Stock Synthesis) Fishery data Model assumptions Results (fishing mortality, recruitment, biomasses, others) Retrospective analysis Stock status (base case) Simulations (projections with status quo and F MSY ) Sensitivity analyses (Document YFT-01-08) Summary conclusions on stock status
3 Methodology Overview of assessment model Age-structured, statistical, catch-at- length model (Stock Synthesis version 3.23b, Dec. 2011) Same type of model as MULTIFAN-CL, A-SCALA and CASAL (integrated analysis)
4 Fishery data Catches Fishery definitions Discards Fishing effort Catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) Size-compositions
5 New or updated data Fishery data Surface fisheries Catch, CPUE and size-frequency data updated to include new data for 2011 and revised data for earlier years Longline fisheries New or updated longline catch data: China (2010), Chinese Taipei ( ), French Polynesia (2010), Japan ( ), Republic of Korea ( ) and US ( ) New or updated CPUE data available for Japan ( ) No new or updated longline size-frequency for Japan (data from 2011 submission used, )
6 YFT total catches Fishery data Catch (t) LL LP DEL NOA OBJ Year
7 Spatial distribution of YFT PS catches Fishery data Average annual distribution of YFT PS catches, Annual distribution of YFT PS catches, 2011
8 Spatial distribution of YFT LL catches Fishery data Average annual LL catch,
9 YFT fishery definitions Fishery data (LP) (NOA) (LL) Baitboat Unassociated Longline Floating Objects (OBJ) Dolphin (DEL) , , 13 2, 14 3,
10 YFT fishery definitions Fishery data
11 Annual YFT catches by fishery Fishery data Year-año
12 YFT discards Fishery data F1 - Southern OBJ F2 - Central OBJ C ( ) F3 - Inshore OBJ F4 - Northern OBJ Year-año
13 Fishing effort Fishery data Year-año OBJ NOA DEL LL
14 Fishery data YFT catch-per-unit effort (CPUE) Year-año OBJ NOA DEL LL
15 YFT size compositions OBJ fisheries Fishery data Small Year-año
16 Issues OBJ time-varying selectivity? F1-OBJ_S F3-OBJ_I F2-OBJ_C F4-OBJ_N
17 OBJ time-varying selectivity? Issues
18 YFT size compositions NOA fisheries Fishery data Medium Small Medium Small Year-año
19 YFT size compositions DEL fisheries Fishery data Large Medium Small Year-año
20 YFT size compositions LP fishery Fishery data Small Year-año
21 YFT size compositions LL fisheries Fishery data Large Medium Small Year-año
22 Model assumptions (base case) Movement and stock structure Biology (growth, natural mortality and maturity) Stock-recruitment relationship (S-R)
23 YFT movement in EPO Assumptions Most Probable Tracks, from Archival Tags, for the 5 Longest at Liberty Yellowfin Tuna Released in Each of 5 Areas in the eastern Pacific Ocean
24 Assumptions YFT stock structure assumptions Minimal net movement of fish between the EPO and WCPO Single stock of YFT in EPO
25 YFT stock-recruitment relationship Assumptions Beverton-Holt relationship No S-R relationship (steepness = 1) Sensitivity analysis (Appendix A) Steepness = 0.75 Likelihood profile on steepness (0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0)
26 Assumptions YFT age and growth Richards growth curve Growth parameters fixed (Maunder and Aires-da-Silva, 2009) Variability of length-at-age fixed, CV of linear f(age) See Document YFT for new growth estimates from integrated age-at-length and tagging data
27 YFT natural mortality (M) Assumptions
28 YFT natural mortality (M) Assumptions
29 YFT relative fecundity Assumptions Relative fecundity x maturity Schaefer (1998) Age in quarters = Percent mature * Batch fecundity * spawning frequency
30 Assumptions Fixed parameters Steepness (h) of S-R relationship (h=1) Rsigma (CV=0.6) Mean length at age Params of a linear model relating the CV of L@A to age Sex ratio at age 0 (=0.5) Sex and age-specific natural mortality-rates (M) Age-specific fecundity at age CV of LL-S CPUE (CV=0.2) Selectivity curves for discard fisheries
31 Estimated parameters Assumptions Recruitment in every quarter from 1975 to 2012 (average recruitment and temporal recruitment anomalies) Catchability coefficients for the 5 CPUE indices (NOA-N, NOA-S, DEL-N, DEL-I, LL-S) CV for 4 CPUE indices (NOA, DEL) Selectivity curves for 11 of the 16 fisheries (DEL-S mirrors LL-S) Logistic selectivity for LL-S and DEL-S, and dome-shape for all other fisheries (except discards) Initial population size and age-structure (recruitment offset, initial F, deviates for ages 1 to 15 quarters)
32 Results (base case) Model fits (CPUE and size compositions) Fishing mortality Selectivity Recruitment Biomass
33 Fit to CPUE OBJ fisheries Results - base case Fishery r.m.s.e. input Used F1-OBJ_S 0.35 estimated No F2-OBJ_C 0.41 estimated No F3-OBJ_I 0.69 estimated No F4-OBJ_N 0.41 estimated No F5-NOA_N 0.53 estimated Yes F6-NOA_S 0.64 estimated Yes F7-DEL_N 0.38 estimated Yes F8-DEL_I 0.37 estimated Yes F9-DEL_S 0.51 estimated No F11-LL_N 0.75 estimated No F12-LL_S (FIXED) Yes Year-año
34 Fit to CPUE NOA fisheries Results - base case Fishery r.m.s.e. input Used F1-OBJ_S 0.35 estimated No F2-OBJ_C 0.41 estimated No F3-OBJ_I 0.69 estimated No F4-OBJ_N 0.41 estimated No F5-NOA_N 0.53 estimated Yes F6-NOA_S 0.64 estimated Yes F7-DEL_N 0.38 estimated Yes F8-DEL_I 0.37 estimated Yes F9-DEL_S 0.51 estimated No F11-LL_N 0.75 estimated No F12-LL_S (FIXED) Yes Year-año
35 Fit to CPUE DEL fisheries Results - base case Fishery r.m.s.e. input Used F1-OBJ_S 0.35 estimated No F2-OBJ_C 0.41 estimated No F3-OBJ_I 0.69 estimated No F4-OBJ_N 0.41 estimated No F5-NOA_N 0.53 estimated Yes F6-NOA_S 0.64 estimated Yes F7-DEL_N 0.38 estimated Yes F8-DEL_I 0.37 estimated Yes F9-DEL_S 0.51 estimated No F11-LL_N 0.75 estimated No F12-LL_S (FIXED) Yes Year-año
36 Fit to CPUE LL fisheries Results - base case Fishery r.m.s.e. input Used F1-OBJ_S 0.35 estimated No F2-OBJ_C 0.41 estimated No F3-OBJ_I 0.69 estimated No F4-OBJ_N 0.41 estimated No F5-NOA_N 0.53 estimated Yes F6-NOA_S 0.64 estimated Yes F7-DEL_N 0.38 estimated Yes F8-DEL_I 0.37 estimated Yes F9-DEL_S 0.51 estimated No F11-LL_N 0.75 estimated No F12-LL_S (FIXED) Yes Year-año
37 Average fits to size comps. Results - base case
38 Results - base case Recent fits to size comps. - OBJ
39 Results - base case Recent fits to size comps. - NOA
40 Results - base case Recent fits to size comps. - DEL
41 Recent fits to size comps. - LL Results - base case
42 OBJ size comp. residual pattern Results - base case F1-OBJ_S F2-OBJ_C F3-OBJ_I F4-OBJ_N
43 Results - base case NOA size comp. residual pattern
44 DEL size comp. residual pattern Results - base case F7-DEL_N F8-DEL_I F9-DEL_S F10-BB
45 Results - base case LL size comp. residual pattern Year-año
46 Results - base case Fit to the size compositions Fishery Mean input N Mean effn effn/n F1-OBJ_S F2-OBJ_C F3-OBJ_I F4-OBJ_N F5-NOA_N F6-NOA_S F7-DEL_N F8-DEL_I F9-DEL_S F10-BB F11-LL_N F12-LL_S
47 YFT fishing mortality (F) Results - base case Year-año
48 Results - base case YFT age-specific fishing mortality (F)
49 YFT size selectivity Results - base case
50 YFT quarterly recruitment Results - base case Year-año
51 Recruitment Results (base case) Year-año Year
52 Summary biomass Results - base case
53 Stock-recruitment Results - base case
54 Spawning biomass Results - base case Year-año
55 ENSO Summary Cold period Warm period Cold period?
56 YFT average weight Results - base case Year-año
57 Fishery impact Results (base case) Year
58 Retrospective analysis
59 Recruitment Retrospective (base case) Year-año
60 Summary biomass Retrospective (base case) Year-año
61 Spawning biomass ratio Retrospective (base case) Year-año
62 Stock status (base case) Spawning Biomass Ratio (SBR) Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)
63 Spawning biomass ratio Stock status (base case) Year-año
64 Management quantities Stock status (base case) 3,57050/356,682= ,350/3,334=1.0048
65 Time varying indicators Stock status (base case)
66 Kobe plots Stock status (base case)
67 Projection simulations (base case) Status quo (Fcurrent) fishing strategy MSY fishing strategy
68 Forward projections Projections (base case) Projection period: 10 years ( ) Evaluate: Catches (surface and longline fisheries) Spawning Biomass Ratio (SBR) Two exploitation scenarios: Status quo (F cur ): 3-year F average ( ) F MSY
69 Projected SBR F cur Stock status (base case) Base case (h=1) h = 0.75 Year
70 Projected SBR F cur and F msy Projections (base case)
71 Projected catches Status quo (F cur ) Projections (base case) Year
72 Yield Stock status (base case)
73 Sensitivity Analyses
74 Summary
75 Summary Summary: key results The recent fishing mortality rates are estimated to be lower than those corresponding to the MSY(F recent <F MSY ) The recent levels of spawning biomass are estimated to be at those corresponding to the MSY (S recent =S MSY )
76 Plausible Sensitivities and Uncertainties - lessons from previous assessments Summary Results are more pessimistic with: The inclusion of a stock-recruitment relationship Higher values of the average size of the oldest fish (L 2 > 182 cm) Lower rates of adult natural mortality (M) Results are more optimistic with: Lower values of the average size of the oldest fish (L 2 < 182 cm) Higher rates of adult natural mortality (M) Fitting to CPUE DEL-N as main index of abundance (S recent >S MSY )
77 Summary: key results (cont.) Results - base case There population may have recently switched from a high to a an intermediate productivity regime
78 Future Future directions Alternative assumptions on stock structure (see YFT and YFT-01-03) Time-variant selectivity for PS fisheries (see YF-01-06) More robust selectivity curves Determine appropriate weighting of the different data sets (presentation ahead)
79 External Review Future External review of IATTC YFT assessment methods and assumptions (15-19 October, 2012)
80 Questions?
81 Lengths and Days at Liberty for 5 Yellowfin from 5 Areas of Release Area Length (cm) Days at Liberty Northern Baja Mean Range Southern Baja Mean Range Revillagigedo Islands Mean Range Panama Mean Range Equatorial EPO Mean Range
82 Summary of Movement Parameters from UKFSST Area σ x (Degrees) σ y (Degrees) u (nm/day) v (nm/day) D (nm 2 /day) Northern Baja Median Range Southern Baja Median Range Revillagigedo Islands Median Range Panama Median Range Equatorial EPO Median Range
83 Results - base case YFT age-specific fishing mortality (F)
84 MSY-quantities by fishery Stock status (base case) All - todas OBJ NOA DEL LL MSY 262, , , , ,748 Bmsy 354, , , , ,574 Smsy 3,305 1,607 2,485 3,139 3,137 Bmsy/B Smsy/S Crecent/MSY Brecent/Bmsy Srecent/Smsy Fmultiplier
85 Dynamic SBR Stock status (base case)
86 Projected SBR F cur Stock status (base case) SAC2 SAC3 Year Year
87 SOI - El Niño / La Niña? Summary Standardized scale SOI Recrutiment -8 Year
88
89
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