Prepared by: McDowell Group, Inc. Andy Wink CAP Meeting
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1 Prepared by: McDowell Group, Inc. Andy Wink CAP Meeting
2 Alaska Seafood Overview Fishery & Market Update Key Issues Ketchikan Seafood Industry
3 Who and What is Alaska Seafood? About 60,000 fishermen, processors, fishery managers, etc from Alaska and every other U.S. state Fisheries are managed by State and Federal Agencies Diverse Industry: Large corporations to sole proprietors Over 80 commercial species, caught by ~6,500 boats and processed in 120 shoreside plants 5-6 billion lbs. per year worth $4-$5 billion in first wholesale value Employs more workers than any other private sector in Alaska
4 Alaska Seafood: Harvest Volume by Species Total 2013 Harvest: 5.9 Billion lbs. Pacific Cod 12% Flatfish 12% Rockfish& Mackerel 4% Alaska Pollock 52% Note: Data represents average. Source: NMFS, ADF&G. All Other 2% Crab 2% Halibut & Black Cod 1% Salmon 15%
5 Alaska Seafood: Harvest Value by Species Total 2013 Ex-Vessel Value: $2.0 Billion Rockfish& Mackerel 2% Flatfish 6% Salmon 32% Crab 14% Pacific Cod 10% Alaska Pollock 23% Halibut & Black Cod 11% All Other 2% Note: Data represents average. Source: NMFS, ADF&G. Source: NMFS, ADF&G
6 Historical Ex-Vessel Value & Harvest Volume $ $Billions $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $ Harvest Volume (Billions lbs.) Ex-Vessel Value ($Billions) Billions lbs. Note: 2014 is a preliminary estimate. Source: NMFS, ADF&G, and McDowell Group estimates.
7 Alaska Seafood Harvest Value by Region, 2013 Bering Sea and Aleutian Is. 47% Catcher-Processor Catcher-Processor Vessels Vessels Bristol Bay and North/Western AK 15% Shoreside Plants & Floating Processors Kodiak 9% Southcentral 13% Southeast 16% Source: McDowell Group estimates based on NMFS and ADF&G data.
8 Alaska Seafood Export Markets Exported to ~120 countries 1.1 million MT & $3.3 Billion Groundfish = about half ($) Salmon = 20-30% China is largest partner EU & Japan largest markets Exports = 60-70% of value Source: McDowell Group estimates based on NMFS Trade Data.
9 Alaska is the 6 th Largest Seafood Exporter 2013 Rank Country (Primary Exporters Only) Edible Seafood Exports in Billions of $US (2013) 1 Norway $ Chile Russia Vietnam Canada A L A S K A 3.1 Notes: Does not include China which is primarily a re-processor. Figures include exports of product classified with the 03 two-digit HS code, which includes the vast majority of edible seafood. Source: NMFS and GlobalTradeAtlas,compiledby McDowellGroup.
10 Total Employment and Labor Income Supported by Key Basic Sectors in Alaska Oil/Gas (2013) 111,500 jobs (56%) $6.4 B Seafood (2011) 41,900 jobs (21%) $2.2 B Tourism ( ) 37,800 jobs (19%) $1.2 B Total: 199,400 jobs (43% of Total AK employment) Mining (2010) 8,200 jobs $0.6 B Note: Figures include multiplier effects. Includes jobs held by residents and nonresidents. Sources: McDowell Group industry economic impact studies ( ).
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12 Alaska Salmon Supply Picture Species e Status Sockeye Roughly On Pace Pinks Too Early to Call Keta Below Forecast Coho Too Early to Call Chinook Above Forecast Total 1, ~1,000 Competing Supply: Figures in Millions of lbs. Atlantic Salmon: 4% growth expected in 2015 Russian Salmon Projection: Roughly flat to up slightly from 2013 Frasier River Sockeye: Down significantly Note: 2014 data is preliminary, 2015 is based on pre-season forecasts. All figures are in millions of pounds. Source: ADF&G and McDowell Group estimates.
13 Alaska Salmon Fisheries & Market Update Sockeye came in late/big, likely +50M fish harvest Pink salmon forecast is largest on record, mixed start Good harvests in PWS, slow in SE, still early Keta harvest below forecast, similar to last year Coho forecast down 27% Chinook harvest flat, above forecast, troll down Implications of warmer water temperatures? Wholesale prices have declined for most key products, due to increased supply and/or strong USD
14 Note: Figures represent Total Allowable Catch in metric tons. Source: NMFS, compiled by McDowell Group. Alaska Whitefish Supply Picture Species Alaska Pollock 1,387,146 1,461,051 1,528,251 Pacific Cod 320, , ,624 Sole 410, , ,287 POP 52,431 51,512 53,033 Atka Mackerel 34,322 27,920 56,500 TACs in Metric Tons Competing Supply 2015 Forecast: Atlantic Cod: Down ~10% (Barents Sea) Russian Pollock: TACs up ~100,000 MT in 2015, increasing supply trend Tilapia: possibly down out of China, Latin America growing rapidly
15 Whitefish Market Summary Euro down 18% vs USD in past 12 months Low pollock fillet prices MSC/Russia + supply Spring pollock roe prices down ~40% Cod prices up slightly (in USD terms) Russia incentivizing domestic sales, but exports attractive due to weak currency (ruble) Flatfish prices also lower (in USD terms)
16 Note: IFQ and CDQ TACs. All figures are in millions of pounds Source: NMFS, compiled by McDowell Group. Alaska Halibut, Black Cod, and Crab Supply Picture (TACs) Species Pacific Halibut Black Cod Red King Crab N/A Golden King Crab N/A Snow Crab BSAI Bairdi/Tanner Crab Dungeness (harvest) N/A TACs in Millions of lbs.
17 Market Summary Halibut supply up from Southeast and CGOA Fresh halibut prices down slightly Higher black cod prices, less supply to Japan King Crab prices up after declining since 2012 Opilio prices stabilize after declining last fall WA/OR Dungy fisheries closed water temp
18 IUU Russian Crab IUU Production Declining, but Still a Problem Millions lbs. (Live Weight) Official Harvest Est. IUU Russian Crab Exports (Live Wt. Eq.) Note: 2014 data is preliminary. Source: McDowell Group estimates based on Global Trade Atlas, FAO, & other sources.
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20 Key Issues Facing Alaska Seafood Strong US dollar and very weak euro, yen, & ruble Lower prices for many key products opportunity Canned salmon inventory (half pinks & reds) Increasing Alaska salmon & whitefish promotion IUU Russian crab keep differentiating Market access and sustainability programs Economic impact awareness in urban Alaska
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23 Population (Borough): 13,825 Local Processors: 7 Resident Fishermen: 627 Landed Volume (Millions lbs.): Ex-Vessel Value ($M): $76.2 National Rank (2013): #11 Salmon Geoducks Sea Cucumbers Halibut Black Cod
24 Vigor Ketchikan Shipyard Shipyard for large ships Owned by State of Alaska Built F/V Arctic Prowler in Freezer/LL - Owned by AK Longline Co. & APICDA OceansAlaska Marine science center Construction in progress Floating Lab Facility (2012) Producing oyster seed Outstanding water quality
25 Transportation Providers Provides for high volume fresh/frozen Alaska Airlines: 5 KTN-SEA flights/day AML/Lynden: 2x weekly barge service Also has Alaska ferry service Training & Education Training offered through UAS Wide range of programs Fills a significant need Marine Advisory Program - Extension service
26 Alaska Seafood Industry Update Prepared by: Andy Wink, McDowell Group, Inc. ASMI CAP Meeting July 28, 2015 Prepared for:
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