G.2.c - Southwest Fisheries Science Center Report and Interna9onal Ac9vi9es

Transcription

1 Agenda Item G.2.c Supplemental SWFSC PowerPoint September 2014 G.2.c - Southwest Fisheries Science Center Report and Interna9onal Ac9vi9es SWFSC Pacific Fisheries Management Council Mee9ng Spokane, WA September 13, 2014 Cisco Werner Director, SWFSC

2 Outline Interna'onal Scien'fic Commi1ee for Tuna and Tuna- like Species in the North Pacific (ISC) Outcomes of the MexUS- Pacifico Capacity building: assessment workshop MSRA Stock Assessment External Review

3 ISC 14 - July 16-21, 2014 Taiwan, Chinese Taipei ISC Members and Observers in attendance: Canada, Chinese Taipei, Japan, Korea, United States, WCPFC, North Pacific Marine Science Organization, Pew, ISSF, WWF Key Business: Review Progress of Working Groups since ISC 13 Update Stock Status and Conservation Advice (6 new or updated assessments) Other Matters: National Fishery and Research Reports Status of Interactions with RFMOs and other Organizations Seminar on the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries 2014 ISC-PICES Workshop on: Dynamics of pelagic fish in the North Pacific under Climate Change ISC collaborative research on bluefin close-kin genetics and otolith chemistry Re-elections of ISC vice-chair (Chinese Taipei) and three ISC Working Group Chairs Next ISC Plenary meeting to be held July 2015 in the USA

4 Albacore Assessment conducted in April 2014; next assessment planned for 2017 SS3 model with catch and abundance data through 2012 Changes to the model over the prior assessment include new es'mates of the stock- recruitment rela'onship and sex- specific growth Conserva'on Informa'on: Because the calculated Fs for rela've to most candidate reference points are below 1.0, NPALB is not experiencing overfishing. Although no biomass- based reference points have been developed for this stock, there is li1le evidence from the assessment that fishing has reduced SSB below reasonable candidate biomass- based reference points, so the ALBWG concludes that the stock is likely not in an overfished condi9on at present. ISC to take up albacore reference points MSE in 2015

5 Bluefin Tuna Assessment update conducted in Feb 2014; next assessment planned for 2016 Used the same model and structure as in 2012 with catch and abundance data updated through 2012 Conserva'on Informa'on: Although no target or limit reference points have been established for the PBF stock under the auspices of the WCPFC and IATTC, the current F average over exceeds all target and limit biological reference points (BRPs) commonly used by fisheries managers except for F loss, and the ra'o of SSB in 2012 rela've to unfished SSB (deple'on ra'o) is less than 6%. In summary, based on reference point ra9os, overfishing is occurring and the stock is overfished. Based on projec'on results, the recently adopted WCPFC CMM ( ) and IATTC resolu'on for 2014 (C ), if con'nued in to the future, are not expected to increase SSB if recent low recruitment con'nues.

6 Swordfish Assessment conducted in Feb 2014 Separate produc'on models for two stocks (WCPO and EPO) Conserva'on Informa'on: The WCPO swordfish stock is healthy and is above the level required to sustain recent catches. For the EPO swordfish stock, overfishing may be occurring in recent years, and the recent average yield of roughly 10,000 t, or almost two 'mes higher than the es'mated MSY, is not likely to be sustainable in the long term. [ ]any increases in catch above recent levels should consider the uncertainty in stock structure and unreported catch.

7 Kobe Plots for Swordfish WCPO EPO

8 Sharks North Pacific blue shark was re- assessed in June 2014 Surplus produc'on and age- structured models used with data through 2011 Conserva'on Informa'on: Rela've to MSY, the reference case and the majority of models run with input parameter values considered most probable, support the conclusion that the North Pacific blue shark stock is not overfished (B 2011 >B MSY ) and overfishing is not occurring (F 2011 <F MSY ). An assessment of north Pacific shordin mako is planned for 2015

9 Striped Marlin (WCPO) No new assessment; update assessment planned for 2015 No new Conserva'on Informa'on: The most recent assessment of WCNPO striped marlin at ISC12 indicated that the stock was experiencing overfishing and that spawning stock biomass was depleted and at 35% of B MSY. The Plenary reiterated that reducing fishing mortality would likely increase spawning stock biomass and would improve the chances of higher recruitment.

10 Blue Marlin (Pan-Pacific) No new assessment; next assessment planned for 2016 or 2017 No new conserva'on informa'on: Based on the most recent stock assessment, the Pacific blue marlin stock is not currently overfished and is not experiencing overfishing. The stock is nearly fully exploited. Stock biomass has declined since the 1970s and has been stable since the mid- 2000s with a slight recent increase. The fishing mortality rate should not be increased from the level to avoid overfishing.

11 MexUS- Pacifico Mee9ng (23-25 July, 2014) July 24, 2014 in Mazatlan, Mexico The US and Mexico agreed to consider conduc'ng joint surveys for HMS in the future and share methodology Mexico agreed to host the next ISC SHARKWG mee'ng, to be held in late November in Puerto Vallarta Discussion on the status of the vaquita, including possible fishery exclusion zones, gear type and enforcement ac'ons. Mexico is hos'ng the Tri- Na9onal Sardine Forum in La Paz, November Con'nued collabora'on on coastal pelagic species including collabora'on on acous'c/ trawl surveys for sardine

12 BIPO (INAPESCA) Reuben Lasker (NOAA) Joint surveys to cover distribu9on areas synop9cally Intercomparison of survey methodologies Data interoperability 12

13 Capacity Building with Mexico Stock Assessment workshop held in La Jolla, June 24 - July 1, par'cipants from Mexico (Academic and Government scien'sts) Focused on assessment methods and Stock Synthesis One project focused on a preliminary age- structured model for a US- Mexico thresher shark assessment

14 MSRA Program Review (28 July 1 August, 2014) Part of a national strategic planning approach by NOAA Fisheries Beginning in Jan 2013, NOAA Fisheries is conducting a systematic review of fisheries programs Five themes (one per year): MSRA Data Collection (2013) MSRA Stock Assessments (2014) ESA and MMPA (2015) Ecosystems (2016) Socioeconomics (2017) Year 6 (2018): review and develop new Strategic Science Plan U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 14

15 Review of our Stock Assessment Process Are we doing good science? Are we doing the right science? Goals: To provide advice on improving the quality, relevance and performance of SWFSC stock assessments: Focus on modeling and assessment practices Prioritization and peer review process SWFSC s organization to support stock assessments U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 15

16 Panel charged to comment on 7 themes that define the stock assessment program: 1. Does the Center apply a suitable scientific/technical approach to fishery stock assessment modeling? 2. Is the assessment process efficient, effective and clearly described, including terms of reference for assessment reports? 3. Does the Center, in conjunction with other entities such as the Council s Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC), have an adequate peer review process? 4. Is the Center s program organization effective at accomplishing needed assessments according to a set of assessment priorities? Include program structure, staffing, and funding; include prioritization of stocks for assessment. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 16

17 Panel to comment on 7 themes continued: 5. Does the Center achieve adequate assessment accomplishments relative to mandates particularly with respect to the number of Fishery Management Plan (FMP) species assessed? 6. Does the assessment program adequately communicate their results, needs, and research? 7. Are there opportunities for improving stock assessments and the stock assessment process? Thank you to John DeVore (PFMC) and Mark Helvey (WCRO) for their help and participation in the review. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 17

18 Report, Response and Publication Individual reports from each member of the panel Chair provided a summary report Panel submitted final report within a week Center provides response and submits to HQ (six to eight weeks) Final reports and Center responses will be posted publicly in ~3 months U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 18

19 Questions or comments? 19