1 Evaluating Potential Fishery Effects of Changes to Other Species Management Analysis Conducted by Scott Miller Economist NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Region, Analytical Team With Contributions by Andy Smoker, NOAA Fisheries Alaska Region Inseason Management Jane DiCosimo, North Pacific Fisheries Management Council Staff.
2 Focus of Discussion Paper Is the catch of the species in question, if managed independently, likely to approach management benchmarks such that management measures would be necessary to prevent overfishing? Which fisheries (gear/target species) are primarily responsible, and thus most likely to be affected by management measures, for the incidental catch of the species in question? What are the implications of spatial and temporal aspects of the incidental catch? In light of the answers to the above questions, what methodology would be appropriate to analyze the likely effects on fishery revenue of potentially needed management measures?
3 The Alternative Set Alternative 1: No Action Alternative 2: Eliminate other species assemblage and manage squids, skates, sculpins, sharks, and octopi as separate assemblages. Alternative 3: Manage only BSAI skates and BSAI and GOA sculpins as separate assemblages. Alternative 4: Manage only BSAI skates as a separate assemblage. Alternative 5: Add grenadiers to BSAI and GOA TAC specification process. Option 1. separate assemblage Option 2. in other species assemblage
4 Cumulative BSAI Skate Catch by Year (20046) Relative to Skate ABC and OFL Metric Tons 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Month Sep Oct Nov Dec ABC 07 OFL
5 BSAI Skate Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 21,124 mt 18, ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 metric tons kg/mt H&L P Cod H&L G Turbot H&L Sable PTR Pollock NPT Yellowfin NPT Arrowtooth NPT Rock Sole NPT Flathead NPT P Cod NPT Atka Mackerel Fishery x gear & target 0306 Avg Catch rate kg/mt ground fish
6 BSAI Skate Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
7 Cumulative BSAI Sharks Catch by Year (20046) Relative to ABC and OFL Metric Tons ABC 07 OFL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
8 BSAI Sharks Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 533 mt metric tons kg/mt PTR Pollock PTR B Pollock NPT Arrowtooth NPT Flathead NPT P Cod NPT Atka Mackerel H&L G Turbot H&L Sable H&L P Cod Fishery x gear & target 0306 Avg Catch rate kg/mt avg ground fish
9 BSAI Shark Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
10 Cumulative BSAI Sculpins Catch by Year (20046) Relative to ABC and OFL Metric Tons Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ABC 07 OFL
11 BSAI Sculpins Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 5,752 mt 1, ,400 1, , metric tons kg/mt PTR Pollock POT P Cod NPT Yellowfin NPT Rockfish NPT Rock Sole NPT P Cod NPT 'O' Flats NPT Flathead NPT Atka M NPT Arrowtooth H&L P Cod Fishery x gear & target 0306 Avg Catch (mt) Rate kg/mt groundfish
12 BSAI Sculpin Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
13 Cumulative BSAI Octopi Catch by Year (20046) Relative to ABC and OFL Metric Tons ABC 07 OFL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
14 BSAI Octopi Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 371 mt metric tons kg/mt 0306 Avg Catch rate kg/mt ground fish Pot Octopus Pot P Cod NPT Rock Sole NPT Flathead NPT P Cod Fishery x gear & target H&L P Cod
15 BSAI Octopi Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
16 Cumulative BSAI Grenadier Catch by Year (200406) Relative to ABC and OFL Metric Tons 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ABC 07 OFL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
17 BSAI Grenadier Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 4,575 mt 1,800 1,200 1,600 1,400 1,000 metric tons 1,200 1, kg/mt 0306 Avg Catch rate kg/mt avg ground fish H&L G Turbot H&L Sable H&L P Cod H&L Arrowtooth Fishery x gear & target NPT Flathead NPT Rockfish
18 BSAI Grenadiers Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
20 Cumulative GOA Squid Catch by Year (20046) Relative to ABC and OFL 2,500 Metric Tons 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month Oct Nov Dec ABC OFL
21 GOA Squid Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 610 mt metric tons kg/mt 0306 Avg Catch rate kg/mt avg ground fish PTR B Pollock PTR Pollock NPT Rockfish NPT B Pollock Fishery x gear & target 0
22 GOA Squid Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
23 Cumulative GOA Sculpins Catch by Year (20046) Relative to ABC and OFL Metric Tons ABC OFL 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
24 GOA Sculpins Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 640 mt POT P Cod NPT Flathead NPT Shallow Flats NPT P Cod NPT Rockfish NPT Arrowtooth NPT Rex H&L P Cod Fishery x gear & target 0306 Avg Catch rate kg/mt ground fish metric tons kg/mt
25 GOA Sculpin Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
26 Cumulative GOA Sharks Catch by Year (20046) Relative to ABC and OFL 3,000 2, Metric Tons 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Month Sep Oct Nov Dec ABC OFL
27 GOA Shark Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 327 mt metric tons kg/mt 0306 Avg Catch rate kg/mt ground fish H&L Sable H&L P Cod NPT Arrowtooth NPT Shallow Flat Fishery x gear & target NPT 'Other Species' NPT Rex Sole
28 GOA Shark Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
29 Cumulative GOA Octopi Catch by Year ( ) Relative to OFL and ABC Metric Tons ABC 07 OFL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
30 GOA Octopi Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 205 mt metric tons kg/mt 0305 Avg Catch rate kg/mt ground fish Pot Octopus Pot P Cod H&L P Cod NPT Arrowtooth Fishery x gear & target 0
31 GOA Octopi Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
32 Cumulative GOA Grenadier Catch by Year (200406) Relative to ABC and OFL Metric Tons 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ABC OFL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
33 GOA Grenadier Average Catch by Gear and Target Average Catch = 9,942 mt 9, ,000 7, Avg Catch 6, metric tons 5,000 4,000 3, kg/mt rate kg/mt avg ground fish 2,000 1, H&L Sable NPT Rockfish NPT Deep Flats NPT Rex Sole Fishery x gear & target NPT Flathead NPT Arrowtooth
34 GOA Grenadier Catch Density (kg/mt groundfish)
35 GOA Summary Table GOA Species Likely to Approach Benchmarks Directed Fishery Possible Gear/Target Potentially Affected Spatial Context Potential Management Measures Potential Closure Timing Squid (Tier 6) Possibly No Pollock Pelagic Trawl Very Discrete Voluntary / Hot Spot March Sculpins (Tier 5) No No Multiple Pot, NPT, H&L fisheries Irregular Broad Closures n/a Sharks (Tier 6) Possibly No Sablefish H&L, Pollock Trawl, Pacific cod H&L, multiple NPT flatfish Broad Broad Closures October Octopi (Tier 6) Possibly No Pacific cod Pot Discrete Voluntary / Hot Spots October Grenadiers (Tier 5) No No Sablefish H&L, NPT Deep Flats Broad / Bathymetry Broad Closures n/a
36 Overview of Alternative 2: BSAI Alternative 2 would eliminate the other species assemblage and manage BSAI skates, sculpins, sharks, and octopi as separate assemblages. BSAI sharks would likely require management measures, primarily in the pelagic pollock trawl and hookandline Pacific cod fisheries in the AugustSeptember time frame. BSAI Octopi catch may approach management benchmarks if individually managed. Potential Octopi management measures could be limited to discrete areas closures beginning in October. Voluntary avoidance could also be used.
37 Overview of Alternative 2: GOA Alternative 2 would eliminate the other species assemblage and manage GOA squids, sculpins, sharks, and octopi as separate assemblages. None of these species are of immediate management concern GOA squid and octopi could approach or exceed management benchmarks in the future. Both are caught in discrete areas and could be managed with hot spots. If GOA shark catch approaches benchmarks, management measures to prevent overfishing could affect several fisheries across a broad geographic area. Sablefish hookandline, pollock trawl, Pacific cod hookandline, and multiple flatfish nonpelagic trawl fisheries harvest GOA sharks. It is possible that some localized areas of highest catch could be identified as areas to be voluntarily avoided. However, it is also possible that broad closures in a multitude of fisheries might be needed. The timing of such closures would be a function of the timing of the increased catch, which is not known.
38 Overview of Alternative 3: BSAI Alternative 3 would separate management of BSAI skates, and sculpins, from the other species assemblage. Neither BSAI skates nor BSAI sculpins are of management concern and could support directed fisheries. Management measures to prevent overfishing of the other species group (now sharks and octopi) would be similar to the management measures potentially needed to prevent overfishing of each of these species individually. These species are incidentally caught in different fisheries with different geographic catch characteristics. There does not appear to be a difference in potential effect on fisheries between Alternatives 2 and 3 in the BSAI.
39 Alternative 3 Overview: GOA GOA sculpins catch does not approach benchmarks. The remaining species in the other species group, squid, sharks, and octopi, are all managed under tier 6. Thus, catch of these species may approach benchmarks. The spatial contexts of incidental catch of the three remaining species in the other species group differ from one another, as do the fisheries that incidentally catch these species. Management measures would likely be similar to those used to manage each of these species individually. Therefore, there does not appear to be a difference in potential effect on fisheries between Alternatives 2 and 3 in the GOA.
40 Alternative 4 Overview Alternative 4 would manage only BSAI skates as a separate assemblage. BSAI skates catch would not approach management benchmarks and could possibly support a directed fishery. Under this alternative, the BSAI other species group would consist of sharks, sculpins, and octopi. Given that a relatively high proportion of other species TAC comes from sculpins, and that available sculpin incidental catch is not heavily utilized, catch of the remaining other species group would not likely approach management benchmarks under this alternative. In essence, the large proportion of unused other species TAC coming from sculpins would mask the potential for shark and octopi catch to approach benchmarks.
41 Alternative 5 Overview Alternative 5 would add grenadiers, a tier 5 species, to both the BSAI and GOA TAC specifications processes Grenadiers are not of present management concern in either the BSAI or GOA. Management of grenadiers as separate assemblages in both the BSAI and GOA (Option 1) is not likely to have direct effect (i.e. imposition of management measures to prevent overfishing) on the fisheries that incidentally catch them. Option 2 would add grenadiers to the other species groups. The addition of grenadiers to the other species groups would add a species with a relatively large, and lightly used, ABC under tier 5 management to these groups. This would tend to mask catch of tier 6 species in excess of their individual ABCs and OFLs.
42 Proposed Impact Analysis Methodology Identification of the target fisheries most likely to be directly affected by any needed management measures. Create a fisheries activity model for those fisheries Spatial and temporal database and mapping of fishing activity using VMS data, observer data, weekly production reports, and fish tickets. Catch composition, catch rates (of all species, including prohibited species), and effort level at a 5 kilometer grid level of spatial resolution CatchinAreas database, and associated GIS output. This effort will be an advance of the previous product to update it with new and better data (e.g. VMS).
43 Methodology Continued Identification of the geographic polygons of potential closure areas. Working with Inseason Management staff, this process will review cumulative incidental catch and catch rate data to determine the spatial and temporal extent of closures that Inseason management staff might take to prevent overfishing. This process may provide a range of hypothetical closures, from broad to fine scale, so that potential effects can be determined across a range of potential actions.
44 Methodology Continued Revenue At Risk Assessment. Determines revenue that could be expected to be earned, based on recent fishing activity, in the area being considered for closure. Catchinareas is converted to revenue using AFSC pricing data. Mitigation of Revenue at Risk Industry will mitigate the revenue at risk by moving fishing effort to adjacent areas that remain open The analysis will have to consider catch rates and effort levels in adjacent areas to determine whether revenue at risk can be mitigated. Operational Implications How would mitigating activity affect operational costs (i.e. via lower catch rates and/or higher levels of required effort), What might the affect be on prohibited species catch, Or would mitigating activity tend to create operational burdens (e.g. fishing in areas of bad weather).
45 Comments from the AP, SSC, and NonTarget Species Committee. Need to develop quantitative analysis of when benchmarks might be hit. Breakout retained versus discarded catch of other species. Breakout subspecies proportions of catch. Specifically sharks (e.g. dogfish vs. sleeper) Provide longer time series of catch, and compare to biomass of target species (specific to sharks). Breakout Catcher Vessels separately from Catcher Processors and Mothership Processors Analyze Pacific Cod sector split and overall Amendment 80 and 85 effect on other species incidental catch. Discuss how adding BSAI grenadiers would affect BSAI TAC cap. Need spatial overlay of harvest of target species by gear type with other species by gear type.
46 Comments Continued Use of term management concern is arbitrary. Use overfishing concern or approaches management benchmarks instead. Clarify whether directed fisheries are actually possible. Specifically for BSAI sharks. Discuss market constraints on potential target fisheries. Estimate amount of octopi catch retained and used for bait versus retained and sold. Discuss process for SSC to reevaluate management benchmarks based on more recent data. Discuss mortality rates of discarded catch: What is the survival rate (e.g. octopi) when discarded? Could survival allow full discard once benchmarks hit but no fishery closure? Experimental grenadier processing has been tried and should be discussed in relation to possibility for a directed fishery.
47 Comments Continued The analysis assumes that management measures would be needed but voluntary avoidance of discrete areas could be used Various types of management that could be used aren t discussed thoroughly. Need to evaluate voluntary avoidance via coops, rolling hotspots, gear modification, and fishing strategies (e.g. day vs. night). Coops exist in two thirds of affected fisheries and that should be looked at as a management method. Coops exist and are well managed in the BSAI but not so much at this point in the GOA Need to give fleet tools to prevent a race for bycatch that could shut a fishery down. (e.g. first halibut PSC cap)
48 Comments Continued Halibut fishery catch of other species is a big issue that should be addressed. Shark bycatch occurs in Halibut fishery and has gone through the roof recently but is all discarded so it doesn t show up in catch accounting. Broad closures might be needed to prevent overfishing of other species, specifically sharks, because of Halibut fishery. This shows why observer coverage is needed in the Hook and line fisheries, specifically the Halibut fishery.
49 Comments Continued Historic catch accounting doesn t collect data on discarded other species catch in all fisheries (e.g. unobserved hook and line) and this will make analysis highly uncertain. What is proposed is nothing more than a retrospective analysis and is not going to be indicative of where the fleet might be in the future. The spatial analysis needs to be more focused on the specific alternatives and how they affect the fleet. Analysis might be better if split out by BSAI vs. GOA. Concern has been expressed over using VMS data, which is highly confidential.
50 Conclusion The NonTarget Committee plans to meet again to discuss this topic. Based on comments received, additional work is needed to address the questions raised. Options: Develop a preliminary review draft EA/RIR/IRFA. Redraft the discussion paper to address comments and concerns and to refine potential actions under alternatives. Stand down pending other developments.
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