Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

Transcription

1 Bulletin 1204 May 2013 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill on Mississippi s Commercial Fishing Sector Discrimination based upon race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, disability, or veteran's status is a violation of federal and state law and MSU policy and will not be tolerated. Discrimination based upon sexual orientation or group affiliation is a violation of MSU policy and will not be tolerated. MISSISSIPPI AGRICULTURAL & FORESTRY EXPERIMENT STATION GEORGE M. HOPPER, DIRECTOR MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY MARK E. KEENUM, PRESIDENT GREGORY A. BOHACH, VICE PRESIDENT

2 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill on Mississippi s Commercial Fishing Sector Benedict C. Posadas Associate Extension/Research Professor of Economics Mississippi State University Coastal Research and Extension Center Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Extension Program Benedict Kit A. Posadas, Jr. Doctoral Student Department of Geosciences Mississippi State University This bulletin was partially funded through grants from the U.S. Economic Development Administration through the Mississippi Economic Development Authority, Mississippi Research Consortium, and the University of Southern Mississippi 2010 Mississippi Institute of Higher Learning Oil Spill Assessment Project under grant award number USMGR04277A and from the Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium through the U.S. Department of Commerce s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under award NA10OAR This is Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant publication number MASGP This document was approved for publication as MAFES Bulletin 1204 of the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station. It was published by the Office of Agricultural Communications, a unit of the Division of Agriculture, Forestry, and Veterinary Medicine at Mississippi State University. Copyright 2013 by Mississippi State University. All rights reserved. This publication may be copied and distributed without alteration for nonprofit educational purposes provided that credit is given to the Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station.

3 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill on Mississippi s Commercial Fishing Sector INTRODUCTION The National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling (2011) reported that on April 20, 2010, the Macondo well blew out, costing the lives of 11 men and beginning a catastrophe that sank the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig and spilled nearly 5 million barrels of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico. The spill disrupted an entire region s economy, damaged fisheries and critical habitats, and brought vividly to light the risks of deepwater drilling for oil and gas the latest frontier in the national energy supply. Damages to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) natural resources due to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill (GOMOS) are taking some time to clean up, and the restoration period to return these resources to their original pre-gomos status is still indefinite. Several early restoration projects in affected states are in the process of implementation with initial funding from British Petroleum (BP) amounting to $1 billion (NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration, 2012). In the meantime, the production and consumption of goods and services by economic sectors located in the GOM states are adversely affected, leading to possible reductions in economic activity, tax revenues, and employment and personal income. GOMOS resulted in closure of significant portions of GOM federal and state waters to commercial and recreational fishing, as well as closure of beach resources to human uses. These closures altered the recreational and consumption decisions of residents and tourists in affected communities. Changes in the market perceptions and flow of goods and services generated by the damaged natural resources affected not only households but also communities dependent on these natural resources. Commercial fishing corresponds to economic sectors (finfish fishing) and (shellfish fishing) in the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS, 2011). Finfish fishing comprises establishments primarily engaged in the commercial catching or taking of finfish from their natural habitat. Shellfish fishing comprises establishments primarily engaged in the commercial catching or taking of shellfish from their natural habitat. In order to understand the magnitude of the potential economic impacts of the GOMOS to the commercial fishing sector in Mississippi, we compiled multiyear baseline economic information about the sector from various secondary sources. The baseline periods selected for this determination covered 5 years before and after Hurricane Katrina ( , ) (Posadas, 2008). Secondary data used in the determination of the baseline period included the annual volume (pounds), landing values (dollars), and imputed ex-vessel prices (dollars per pound) of the commercial fishing sector from 2000 to 2010 as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries). The commercial fishing sector included shrimp, oysters, blue crabs, menhaden, and miscellaneous species. Our overall goal was to measure the direct economic impacts of the GOMOS on the commercial fishing sector in Mississippi. The first specific objective of this bulletin was to determine the appropriate baseline period by comparing the commercial landings during the 5 years before and the 5 years after Hurricane Katrina. Secondly, it aimed to evaluate the economic recovery of the commercial fishing sector from the damages associated with recent natural disasters by comparing the commercial landings during the post- Katrina period with landings in the pre-katrina period. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 1

4 Finally, the bulletin sought to measure the immediate direct impacts of the oil spill on the commercial fishing sector by comparing the 2010 commercial landings with the appropriate baseline period. The significance of this determination is that the choice of the baseline period influenced the estimates of damages and the recovery period for the commercial fishing sector after the oil spill. The baseline period covered the immediate past decade starting from The pre-katrina period refers to the years The post-katrina period covers the years , while the GOMOS period starts in In this bulletin, statistical comparisons of the pre-katrina and the post-katrina economic performance of the commercial harvesting sector was conducted for all species combined and by major species landed in the Mississippi, primarily shrimp, oysters, crabs, menhaden, and miscellaneous species. The determination of the baseline period was based on the statistical comparison of the pre-katrina to the post-katrina period. If the means of the two periods were not significantly different from one another, then either period was used as the baseline period. If the means of the two periods were significantly different, both the preand post-katrina baseline periods were used as baseline data and reported in this bulletin. If the post-katrina data were significantly lower than the pre-katrina data, then it was noted that the commercial fishing sector had not yet fully recovered from the damages associated with the recent natural disasters (Posadas, 2008). After the baseline period was selected, the ratio of the current year s output was compared with the expected output during the baseline period. If the ratio was less than 100%, then the economic sector suffered a loss in current year s output as compared with the expected output. If the ratio was greater than 100%, then the commercial fishing sector generated a gain in current year s output. A neutral economic impact on the fishing sector occurred when the ratio was equal to 100%. COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL FISHING CLOSURES The decision to close or open federal and state waters to commercial and recreational fishing was made by NOAA Fisheries and the Food and Drug and Administration (FDA). The closures of significant portions of GOM federal and state waters to commercial and recreational fishing and closures of beach resources to human uses due to GOMOS altered the recreational and consumption decisions of residents and tourists in affected counties and communities. These fishing closures have serious economic implications to the commercial seafood industry and the recreational fishing industry of the state. More than one-third of the GOM federal waters were closed to commercial and recreational fishing starting on May 2, Figure 1 shows the daily record of the number of square miles of federal waters closed to fishing. Between June 2010 and July 2010, more than 80,000 square miles were closed to commercial and recreational fishing, representing more than one-third of the total federal waters in the entire region (Figure 2). By April 19, 2011, all the federal waters in the GOM were opened to both commercial and recreational fishing. Up to 97 percent of the Mississippi state waters were closed to commercial and recreational fishing starting on June 1, Figure 3 shows the daily summary of the number of square miles of Mississippi waters closed to fishing. In July 2010, almost all of the Mississippi state waters were closed to commercial and recreational fishing (Figure 4). By August 7, 2010, all the Mississippi state waters were opened to both commercial and recreational fishing. Figure 1. Square miles of Gulf of Mexico federal waters closed to fishing due to the oil spill. Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries, Southeast Regional Office. 2 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

5 Figure 2. Percent of Gulf of Mexico federal waters closed to fishing due to the oil spill. Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries, Southeast Regional Office. Figure 3. Square miles of Mississippi state waters closed to fishing due to the oil spill. Source of raw data: Mississippi Department of Marine Resources (MDMR). Figure 4. Percent of Mississippi state waters closed to fishing due to the oil spill. Source of raw data: MDMR. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 3

6 The Mississippi seafood industry consisted of the commercial harvesting sector, seafood processors and dealers, seafood wholesalers and distributors, and retail sectors. Recent annual estimates showed that the seafood industry generated total sales impacts amounting to $ million (Table 1). The industry created a total of 6,392 jobs and generated personal income totaling $ million in The commercial harvesting sector included commercial fishermen using various gears onboard vessels (more than 5 tons) and boats (less than 5 tons). Recent annual estimates of the economic impact of this sector showed that it produced $ million in total sales, created 1,238 jobs, and generated $ million in personal MISSISSIPPI SEAFOOD INDUSTRY income. Figure 5 shows the annual values of major species harvested by commercial fishermen from 2000 to 2010, including shrimp, oysters, blue crabs, and finfish. The bulk of the finfish landings consisted of menhaden. Figure 5. Mississippi annual commercial landing values by major species, (in dollars at current prices). Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries Statistics Division. Table 1. Economic impacts of Mississippi commercial seafood industry for all species combined by sector, Sector Sales impacts Income impacts Employment impacts $M $M jobs Commercial harvesters ,238 Seafood processors and dealers ,046 Importers Seafood wholesalers and distributors Retail sectors ,946 Total impacts ,392 1 Includes direct, indirect, and induced economic effects. Source of data: NOAA Fisheries Economics & Social Sciences Program. 4 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

7 Figure 6 shows the 2010 Mississippi commercial landings of all species combined presented side by side with the baseline data covering 5 years before and after Hurricane Katrina. The total commercial landings of all species combined dropped to million pounds in 2010, which was valued at $21.9 million at current market prices. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) results revealed that the average commercial landings (ALLMSLBS) during the pre-katrina period were not significantly different (p=0.05) from those during the post-katrina period (Appendices A and B). Test results suggested that either period or the entire past decade could be used as baseline period in determining the impacts of the GOMOS on the combined landings of all species. Table 2 shows that the total pounds landed by commercial fishermen in Mississippi (ALLMSLBS) in 2010 was 53% of the average annual amount during the past decade (ALLMSLBS = million pounds). This percentage indicated that the 2010 landings were about 47% or 98.4 million pounds short of the expected commercial landings based on the landings reported during the last decade. ANOVA results demonstrated that total commercial landing values (ALLMSDOL) were significantly higher during the pre-katrina period than the post-katrina period (Appendices A and B). Average commercial landing values during the pre- Katrina period (ALLMSDOL = TOTAL COMMERCIAL LANDINGS $49.3 million) were significantly higher than those during the post-katrina period (ALLMSDOL = $33.2 million). Total landing values of all species in 2010 were about 44% of the average annual values from 2000 to Total values in 2010 fell by 56% of the average in the pre-katrina period, which amounted to $27.4 million. When compared with the average values from 2005 to 2009, the 2010 value was about 66% of that amount. Foregone annual gross sales of the commercial fishing sector in 2010 were 34% (or $11.3 million) of the average amount during the post-katrina period. When the post-katrina baseline was used, foregone annual gross sales were less than those seen when the pre-katrina baseline was used. Total deflated commercial landings (ALLMSDEF) and deflated imputed ex-vessel prices (ALLMSEVP) were significantly higher during the pre-katrina period than during the post-katrina period (Appendices A and Figure 6. Mississippi commercial landings and landing values of all species combined, (in millions of pounds and millions of dollars at current prices). Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries Statistics Division. Table 2. Comparison of 2010 total commercial landings of all species combined to the baseline periods. Baseline period ALLMSLBS 1 ALLMSDOL 2 ALLMSDEF 3 ALMSEVP 4 Pre-Katrina 53% 44% 37% 69% Post-Katrina 53% 66% 63% 119% Past decade 53% 53% 46% 87% 1 Commercial landings of all species combined. 2 Commercial landing values (at current prices) of all species combined. 3 Commercial landing values (at constant prices) of all species combined. 4 Deflated imputed ex-vessel prices of all species combined. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 5

8 B). Table 2 shows a comparison of the baseline periods with the 2010 deflated total landing values and imputed ex-vessel prices of all species combined. Commercial landings of all species combined during the GOMOS-affected period in 2010 were not significantly different from landings during the two baseline periods. Commercial landings declined by 98.4 million pounds when compared with the pre- and post-katrina periods. The overall impacts of the oil spill on 2010 commercial landing values of all species combined were significantly different using the two baseline periods. Foregone annual gross sales of all species combined were $27.4 million when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post-katrina period, foregone annual gross sales of all species combined were $11.32 million. Figure 7 shows the 2010 Mississippi commercial landings of all shrimp species as compared with the baseline data covering the 5 years before and after Hurricane Katrina. Total commercial landings of all shrimp species combined dropped to 2.5 million pounds (headless) in 2010, which was valued at $8.3 million in current prices. ANOVA results (Appendices A and B) showed that average commercial shrimp landings during the pre- Katrina period (SHRMSLBS = 10.4 million pounds) were significantly higher than those during the post- Katrina period (SHRMSLBS = 5.7 million pounds). The total weight of all shrimp species landed by commercial fishermen in Mississippi in 2010 was 24% of the average annual shrimp landings during the 5 years before Hurricane Katrina. The decrease in 2010 shrimp landings reached 7.9 million pounds or 76% of the expected landings based on the pre- Katrina baseline data. When weighed against the post-katrina baseline data, 2010 landings were approximately 44% of the 5-year average annual shrimp COMMERCIAL SHRIMP LANDINGS landings. The decline in shrimp landings amounted to 3.2 million pounds or 56% as compared with post- Katrina baseline data. ANOVA results (Appendices A and B) showed that average commercial shrimp landing values during the pre-katrina period (SHRMSDOL = $30.3 million) were significantly different from those during the post- Katrina period (SHRMSDEF = $14.4 million). Total value of all shrimp species landed by commercial fishermen in 2010 was about 27% of the average annual landing value from 2000 to The drop in value reached 73% of the pre-katrina baseline average, or Figure 7. Mississippi commercial landings and landing values of all shrimp species, (in millions of pounds of headless shrimp and millions of dollars at current prices). Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries Statistics Division. Table 3. Comparison of 2010 commercial shrimp landing data to the baseline periods. Baseline period SHRMSLBS 1 SHRMSDOL 2 SHRMSDEF 3 SHRMSEVP 4 Pre-Katrina 24% 27% 23% 91% Post-Katrina 44% 58% 55% 123% Past decade 32% 37% 32% 104% 1 Commercial landings of all shrimp species combined. 2 Commercial landing values (at current prices) of all shrimp species combined. 3 Commercial landing values (at constant prices) of all shrimp species combined. 4 Deflated imputed ex-vessel prices of all shrimp species combined. 6 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

9 approximately $22 million. When compared with the baseline data, the 2010 shrimp landing value was about 58% of the average annual value. Shrimp landing value dropped by 42% when using the post- Katrina baseline average, or approximately $6 million. Deflated shrimp commercial landings (SHRMSDEF) were significantly higher during the pre- Katrina period than the post-katrina period (Appendices A and B). Deflated average shrimp exvessel prices (SHRMSEVP) were not significantly different during the two baseline periods. Comparisons of 2010 deflated shrimp landings and imputed ex-vessel prices to the baseline periods are shown in Table 3. Note that during the past decade, there have been continued declines in the ex-vessel prices of various wild shrimp species and counts harvested from the GOM states. Gulf commercial landings accounted for 7.5% of the total U.S. consumption of all shrimp species in 2009 due to the continued increase in imports of both farmed and wild-caught shrimp species. Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 shrimp commercial landings were significantly different when compared to the two baseline periods. These differences during the two periods indicate that the commercial shrimping sector has not yet fully recovered from damages associated with the recent disasters. The reduction in commercial shrimp landings in 2010 reached 7.9 million pounds when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post- Katrina period, shrimp landings fell by 3.2 million pounds in Similarly, overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial shrimp landing values were significantly different when compared with the two baseline periods. Foregone annual gross sales of all shrimp species combined were $22 million when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post- Katrina period, foregone annual gross sales of all shrimp species combined were $6 million. Combined commercial oyster landings from the five GOM states accounted for 56% of the total U.S. oyster harvest in Figure 8 shows 2010 Mississippi commercial oyster landings compared with baseline data covering the 5 years before and after Hurricane Katrina. Total commercial oyster landings fell to 1.45 million pounds in 2010, which was valued at $4.27 million at current prices. ANOVA outcomes (Appendices A and B) showed that average commercial oyster landings during the pre- Katrina period (OYSMSLBS = 3.2 million pounds) were significantly higher than those during the post- Katrina period (OYSMSLBS = 1.43 million pounds). Note that the massive damage caused by Hurricane Katrina closed state oyster reefs for two harvesting seasons from September 2005 to March The total weight of oysters landed by Mississippi commercial fishermen in 2010 was about 45% of the average annual poundage during the 5 years before Hurricane Katrina. The drop in the 2010 landings was 1.7 million pounds or 55% of expected landings based on COMMERCIAL OYSTER LANDINGS pre-katrina baseline data. When compared with post- Katrina baseline data, 2010 landings were approximately 102% of the 5-year average annual amount. Total commercial oyster landing values (OYSMSDOL) were not significantly different during the pre-katrina period when compared with the post- Katrina period (Appendices A and B). These results suggested that either period or the entire decade could be used as the baseline period. The total value of oysters landed by commercial fishermen in 2010 was about 76% of the average annual value from 2000 to Figure 8. Mississippi commercial landings and landing values of oysters, (in millions of pounds of meat and million of dollars at current prices). Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries Statistics Division. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 7

10 2004 (OYSMSDOL = $5.6 million). The total loss in 2010 output as compared with the expected output of oysters amounted to $1.3 million. When compared with the past decade s average output (OYSMSDOL = $4.8 million), 2010 oyster landings were about 89%, or $0.5 million, short of the expected annual value. When compared with the post- Katrina period (OYSMSDOL = $3.8 million), the 2010 oyster landing value rose by 12%, or $0.5 million. Deflated oyster commercial landings (OYSMSDEF = $2.5 million) were not significantly different during the two baseline periods (Appendices A and B). Deflated average oyster ex-vessel prices (OYSMSEVP = $1 vs. $1.3 per pound of oyster meat) were significantly higher during the post-katrina period than in the pre-katrina period. Comparisons of 2010 deflated oyster-landing values and imputed ex-vessel prices to the baseline periods are shown in Table 4. Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 oyster commercial landings were significantly different when using the two baseline periods. Significant differences in average landings during the two periods demonstrated that the commercial oystering sector was still recovering from damages associated with the recent disasters. The decrease in commercial oyster landings in 2010 was 1.7 million pounds when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post- Katrina period, 2010 oyster landings rose by 2%. Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial oyster landing values were significantly different when compared with the two baseline periods. Foregone annual gross sales of oysters were $1.3 million when compared with the pre-katrina period. When matched with the post-katrina period, annual gross sales increased $0.5 million. Table 4. Comparison of 2010 commercial oyster landing data to the baseline periods. Baseline period OYSMSLBS 1 OYSMSDOL 2 OYSMSDEF 3 OYSMSEVP 4 Pre-Katrina 45% 76% 63% 139% Post-Katrina 102% 112% 109% 107% Past decade 60% 89% 78% 123% 1 Commercial landings of oysters. 2 Commercial landing values (at current prices) of oysters. 3 Commercial landing values (at constant prices) of oysters. 4 Deflated imputed ex-vessel prices of oysters. 8 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

11 Combined commercial blue crab landings from the GOM states accounted for 38% of the total U.S. blue crab harvest in Figure 9 shows 2010 Mississippi commercial blue crab landings compared with baseline data covering 5 years before and after Hurricane Katrina. Total commercial blue crab landings declined to 0.37 million pounds in 2010, which was valued at $0.37 million at current prices. Results of the ANOVA on commercial blue crab landings (CRAMSLBS = 0.7 million pounds) indicated that the pre-katrina period was not significantly different from the post-katrina period (Appendices A and B). These results implied that either of the two periods or the entire past decade could be used as the baseline. The total weight of blue crabs landed by Mississippi commercial fishermen in 2010 was 53% of the average annual amount of the past decade (CRAMSLBS = 0.7 million pounds). Compared with the past decade, 2010 commercial blue crab landings were about 47% or 0.3 million pounds short of the expected landings. Results of the ANOVA on commercial blue crab landing values (CRAMSDOL = $0.6 M) revealed that the pre-katrina period was not significantly different from the post-katrina period (Appendices A and B). These results implied that either COMMERCIAL CRAB LANDINGS period or the entire past decade could be used as the baseline. The total ex-vessel value of blue crabs (CRAMSDOL = $0.37 million) landed by commercial fishermen in 2010 was about 60% of average value from 2000 to The 2010 landing value was about 40% of the average value during the past decade, amounting to about $0.2 million. The overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial blue crab landings were similar when compared with the two baseline periods. Commercial blue crab landings fell by 0.3 million pounds in Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial blue crab landing values were not different when compared with the two baseline periods. The foregone annual gross sales of blue crabs were $0.2 million when compared with the entire past decade. Figure 9. Mississippi commercial landings and landing values of blue crabs, (in millions of pounds and millions of dollars at current prices). Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries Statistics Division. Table 5. Comparison of 2010 commercial crab landing data to the baseline periods. Baseline period CRAMSLBS 1 CRAMSDOL 2 CRAMSDEF 3 CRAMSEVP 4 Pre-Katrina 50% 62% 52% 102% Post-Katrina 56% 59% 55% 97% Past decade 53% 60% 53% 99% 1 Commercial landings of blue crabs. 2 Commercial landing values (at current prices) of blue crabs. 3 Commercial landing values (at constant prices) of blue crabs. 4 Deflated imputed ex-vessel prices of blue crabs. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 9

12 The combined commercial menhaden landings from GOM states accounted for 74% of total U.S. landings of menhaden in Figure 10 shows the 2010 Mississippi commercial menhaden landings compared with the 10-year baseline landings data. Total commercial menhaden landings dropped to million pounds in 2010, which was valued at $8.4 million at current prices. Outcomes of the ANOVA on commercial menhaden landings implied that the pre-katrina period was not significantly different from the post-katrina period (Appendices A and B). Total menhaden pounds landed by Mississippi commercial fishermen in 2010 were about 55% of the average annual menhaden landings during the past decade (MENMSLBS = million pounds). The 2010 landings fell short by about 45% or 86.7 million pounds of the expected menhaden harvest based on landings reported during the past decade. ANOVA results on commercial menhaden landing values suggested that the pre-katrina period was not significantly different from the post-katrina period (Appendices A and B). The total value of menhaden landed by commercial fishermen in 2010 was about 64% of the COMMERCIAL MENHADEN LANDINGS average annual value from 2000 to 2009 (MENMSDOL = $13 million). The 2010 value fell short by 36% of the expected amount based on that reported for the past decade, amounting to total annual loss of at least $4.7 million. Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial menhaden landings were similar when compared with the two baseline periods. Commercial menhaden landings fell by 86.7 million pounds in Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial menhaden values were not different when compared with the two baseline periods. The foregone annual gross sales of menhaden were $4.7 million when compared with the entire past decade. Figure 10. Mississippi commercial landings and landing values of menhaden, (in millions of pounds and millions of dollars at current prices). Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries Statistics Division. Table 6. Comparison of 2010 commercial menhaden landings data to the baseline periods. Baseline period MENMSLBS 1 MENMSDOL 2 MENMSDEF 3 MENMSEVP 4 Pre-Katrina 57% 73% 60% 106% Post-Katrina 53% 58% 55% 106% Past decade 55% 64% 57% 106% 1 Commercial landings of menhaden. 2 Commercial landing values (at current prices) of menhaden. 3 Commercial landing values (at constant prices) of menhaden. 4 Deflated imputed ex-vessel prices of menhaden. 10 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

13 COMMERCIAL LANDINGS OF MISCELLANEOUS SPECIES Figure 11 shows the 2010 Mississippi commercial landings of miscellaneous species combined mostly foodfish such as mullet, flounder, trout, red drum, black drum, and sheepshead compared with the baseline data covering the 5 years before and after Hurricane Katrina. Total commercial landings of all species combined dropped to 2.51 million pounds in 2010, which was valued at $0.96 million at current market prices. ANOVA results showed that average commercial landings during the pre-katrina period (MISCMSLBS = 10.6 million pounds) were significantly higher than during the post-katrina period (MISCMSLBS = 5.12 million pounds) (Appendices A and B). The total weight of miscellaneous species landed by Mississippi commercial fishermen in 2010 was about 49% of the expected annual amount using the post-katrina period as baseline. However, the 2010 weight of miscellaneous species was 24% of the average amount seen in the pre-katrina period. These results suggested that this commercial fishing sector was still recovering from the damages to its support infrastructure due to the recent disasters. Landing values and imputed ex-vessel prices of miscellaneous species were also significantly different during the pre- and post- Katrina periods. The total annual loss to the landing values of miscellaneous species was 52% and 74% of the expected landing values during the pre- and post- Katrina periods, respectively. Pre-Katrina landing values averaged $1.8 million dollars, while post-katrina landing values averaged $1.3 million dollars. Among these commercial species, the choice of the baseline period led to differences in the annual losses to the commercial fisheries: $0.89 million when using the pre-katrina period and $0.34 million when using the post-katrina period. Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial landings of miscellaneous species were significantly different when compared with the two baseline periods. These differences indicated that the commercial fishing sector was still recovering from the damages associated with the recent natural disasters. The decrease in 2010 commercial landings was 8.1 million pounds when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post-katrina period, 2010 commercial landings fell by 2.6 million pounds. Overall impacts of the GOMOS on 2010 commercial landing values of miscellaneous species were significantly different when compared with the two baseline periods. The foregone annual gross sales of miscellaneous species totaled $0.9 million when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post- Katrina period, the decrease was $0.3 million. Figure 11. Mississippi commercial landings and landing values of other species combined, (in millions of pounds and millions of dollars at current prices). Source of raw data: NOAA Fisheries Statistics Division. Table 7. Comparison of 2010 commercial landings of miscellaneous species to the baseline periods. Baseline period MISCMSLBS 1 MISCMSDOL 2 MISCMSDEF 3 MISCMSEVP 4 Pre-Katrina 24% 52% 43% 178% Post-Katrina 49% 74% 70% 143% Past decade 32% 61% 53% 158% 1 Commercial landings of all miscellaneous species combined. 2 Commercial landing values (at current prices) of all miscellaneous species combined. 3 Commercial landing values (at constant prices) of all miscellaneous species combined. 4 Deflated imputed ex-vessel prices of all miscellaneous species combined. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 11

14 SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS The closure of significant portions of Gulf of Mexico federal and state waters to commercial fishing after the Gulf of Mexico oil spill altered the harvesting decisions of commercial fishermen in affected communities. More than one-third of Gulf of Mexico federal waters were closed to commercial and recreational fishing starting on May 2, Between June 2010 and July 2010, more than 80,000 square miles were closed to commercial and recreational fishing. By April 19, 2011, all federal waters in the gulf were opened to both commercial and recreational fishing. Up to 97 percent of Mississippi state waters were closed to commercial and recreational fishing starting on June 1, In July 2010, almost all of the Mississippi waters were closed to commercial and recreational fishing. By August 7, 2010, all state waters were opened to both commercial and recreational fishing. In order to understand the magnitude of the economic impacts of the oil spill on the commercial fishing sector in Mississippi, multiyear baseline economic information about the sector was compiled from various secondary sources. The baseline periods selected for this determination covered the 5 years before and the 5 years after Hurricane Katrina. Overall impacts of the oil spill on the 2010 commercial landings of all species combined were not significantly different when compared with the two baseline periods. Commercial landings declined by 98.4 million pounds when compared with both pre- Katrina and post-katrina baseline periods. Overall impacts of the oil spill on the 2010 commercial landing values of all species combined, however, were significantly different using the two baseline periods. Foregone annual gross sales of all species combined were $27.4 million when compared with the pre- Katrina period. When compared with the post-katrina period, foregone annual gross sales of all species combined were $11.32 million. Overall impacts of the oil spill on 2010 shrimp commercial landings were significantly different when compared with the two baseline periods. These differences in landings during the two periods indicated that the commercial shrimping sector has not yet fully recovered from damages associated with the recent disasters. The reduction in commercial shrimp landings reached 7.9 million pounds, or $22 million, when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post-katrina period, shrimp landings fell by 3.2 million pounds, or $6 million. Overall impacts of the oil spill on the 2010 oyster commercial landings were significantly different when using the two baseline periods. The significant differences in average landings during the two periods demonstrated that the commercial oyster sector was still recovering from damages associated with the recent disasters. The decrease in commercial oyster landings in 2010 was 1.7 million pounds, or $1.3 million, when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post-katrina period, 2010 oyster landings rose slightly by $0.5 million. Overall impacts of the oil spill on 2010 commercial menhaden landings were similar when matched with the two baseline periods. Commercial menhaden landings fell by 86.7 million pounds in The foregone annual gross sales of menhaden fishing were at least $4.7 million when compared with the entire past decade. Overall impacts of the oil spill on 2010 commercial landings of miscellaneous species were significantly different when compared with the two baseline periods. These differences indicated that the commercial fishing sector was still recovering from damages associated with the recent disasters. The decrease in commercial landings in 2010 was 8.1 million pounds, or $0.9 million, when compared with the pre-katrina period. When compared with the post-katrina period, 2010 commercial landings fell by 2.6 million pounds, or $0.3 million. The choice of the baseline period influenced the extent of damages and length of the recovery period of commercial fishing sectors affected by the oil spill. The final selection of the baseline period considered both the statistical results and the state of economic recovery of each sector from damages associated with Hurricane Katrina. 12 Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

15 LITERATURE CITED National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling. Deep Water: The Gulf Oil Disaster and the Future of Offshore Drilling, Report to the President, January Last accessed: August 19, North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). Last accessed: August 19, NOAA Fisheries. Southeast Fishery Bulletins. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Service, Southeast Regional Office. sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/bulletins/2010bulletinarchive. htm. Last accessed: December 19, NOAA Fisheries. Southeast Fishery Bulletins. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Service, Southeast Regional Office. nmfs.noaa.gov/bulletins/2011 BulletinArchive.htm. Last accessed: April 30, NOAA Fisheries. Commercial Fisheries Landings. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Fisheries Statistics Division. nmfs.noaa.gov/st1/commercial/index.html. Last accessed: May 21, NOAA Fisheries. Interactive Fisheries Economic Impacts Tool. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Fisheries Economics and Social Sciences Program. st5/index.html. Last accessed: August 31, NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration. Damage Assessment, Remediation, and Restoration Program. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Last accessed: May 7, Posadas, B.C Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Hurricane Katrina on Mississippi Commercial Fishing Fleet. Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station Bulletin Mississippi State, Mississippi. com/pubs/bulletins/b1165.pdf. Last accessed: May 21, Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 13

16 Appendix A. Descriptive characteristics of commercial landings and values. N Mean Std. deviation Std. error 95% Confidence interval for mean Minimum Maximum Lower Bound Upper Bound ALLMSLBS Total ALLMSDOL Total ALLMSDEF Total ALLMSEVP Total SHRMSLBS Total SHRMSDOL Total SHRMSDEF Total SHRMSEVP Total OYSMSLBS Total OYSMSDOL Total OYSMSDEF Total OYSMSEVP Total CRAMSLBS Total CRAMSDOL Total CRAMSDEF Total CRAMSEVP Total MENMSLBS Total MENMSDOL Total MENMSDEF Total Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

17 Appendix A (continued). Descriptive characteristics of commercial landings and values. N Mean Std. deviation Std. error 95% Confidence interval for mean Minimum Maximum Lower Bound Upper Bound MENMSEVP Total MISCMSLBS Total MISCMSDOL Total MISCMSDEF Total MISCMSEVP Total Appendix B. Analysis of variance results. Sum of squares df Mean square F Sig. ALLMSLBS Between groups Within groups Total ALLMSDOL Between groups Within groups Total ALLMSDEF Between groups Within groups Total ALLMSEVP Between groups Within groups Total SHRMSLBS Between groups Within groups Total SHRMSDOL Between groups Within groups Total SHRMSDEF Between groups Within groups Total SHRMSEVP Between groups Within groups Total OYSMSLBS Between groups Within groups Total OYSMSDOL Between groups Within groups Total OYSMSDEF Between groups Within groups Total Mississippi Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station 15

18 Appendix B (continued). Analysis of variance results. Sum of squares df Mean square F Sig. OYSMSEVP Between groups Within groups Total CRAMSLBS Between groups Within groups Total CRAMSDOL Between groups Within groups Total CRAMSDEF Between groups Within groups Total CRAMSEVP Between groups Within groups Total MENMSLBS Between groups Within groups Total MENMSDOL Between groups Within groups Total MENMSDEF Between groups Within groups Total MENMSEVP Between groups Within groups Total MISCMSLBS Between groups Within groups Total MISCMSDOL Between groups Within groups Total MISCMSDEF Between groups Within groups Total MISCMSEVP Between groups Within groups Total Estimation of the Baseline for Assessment of Economic Impacts of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill