How is the Irish Fish Market Performing? Data to 18 June 2017

Transcription

1 How is the Irish Fish Market Performing? Data to 18 June 2017

2 Today s Agenda Contents Definitions Total Fish Frozen Fish Fresh Fish Focus on How does fish s performance compare to other proteins and who is a typical fish shopper? Overview of the drivers of Frozen Fish s performance and a look at Branded vs PL and retailer performance Overview of the drivers of Fresh Fish s performance looking at Prepacked vs. Loose and Raw vs. RTE, species and retailers Coated Fish, Ready Meals, Prawns, Mussels

3 Definitions of the Category & Sub-Categories Total Fish Fresh Fish Frozen Fish Loose Prepacked RAW RTE RTC RAW RTE RTC RTE: Fish which can be unpackaged and consumed immediately RTC Fish which has been prepared to provide final product for the consumer and is ready to cook Raw Fish which needs heat applied to it before eating

4 Definitions of the Sectors Sector Definition Includes/Excludes Total Fish All Fish Fresh and Frozen excluding ambient fish All Fish Fresh and Frozen excluding ambient fish Coated Fish Cakes/ Burgers Fish Fingers/ Goujons Fish Bites/ Crunchies Flavouring/ Marinade Flavouring/ Marinade Smoked All Breaded Fillets, Battered Fillets, Dusted Fillets including all Breaded, Battered & Dusted Whole Shellfish including Tempura Prawns All breaded/battered/dusted/seeded fish cakes and fish burgers even those with sauce in the middle of them All breaded/battered/dusted/seeded fish fingers and fish goujons All breaded/battered/dusted/seeded fish bites, nuggets, shapes, croquettes, dippers and crunchies. Also popcorn prawns All fish and shellfish with flavouring/butter/marinade/topping/ glaze/dressing/ vinegarette that is not a complete ready meal All fish and shellfish with flavouring/butter/marinade/topping/ glaze/dressing/ vinegarette that is not a complete ready meal made with smoked fish Excludes Breaded & Battered with Sauce, breaded & battered fingers, bites, goujons, cakes etc, filo prawns and breaded/battered fish with chips/potato and smoked coated fish Excludes any options with other proteins/carbohydrates and smoked fish cakes/burgers Excludes any options with other proteins/carbohydrates and smoked fish fingers/goujons Excludes any options with other proteins/carbohydrates and smoked fish bites/crunchies Excludes fish and shellfish with sauce and smoked fish with flavouring/marinade Excludes fish and shellfish with sauce and products with flavouring/marinade that do not use smoked fish Source: Kantar Worldpanel

5 Sector Definition Includes/Excludes Natural All natural raw fillets of fish and shellfish without any sauce/butter/ marinades/ crumb/toppings/additions Other All value added fish and shellfish that is not a main meal or with sauce such as Kievs, Spring rolls, parcels, filo prawns, prawn toast, starters for fish, shellfish, tartlets, wellington, terrine, dressed crab/lobster, dinner food excl carbohydrate, fish with toppings, sausages, tartlets, appetisers, party food Ready Meals All complete fish and shellfish ready meals (with carbohydrate/vegetables) Excludes separate dinner components such as quiche, Kiev, mornays or any starter type products where smoked fish is not the main ingredient Smoked All natural smoked fish including BBQ fish Excludes any smoked fish with flavouring/marinade, smoked coated fish, smoked fish with sauce or smoked fish as the main ingredient in fish cakes/burgers, ready meals and other Scampi Surimi Sushi With Sauce All scampi products either wholetail langoustine or reformed scampi with whitefish All surimi products All sushi products All fish and shellfish with sauce including prawns cocktail with sauce, fish mornays, fish with sauce Fish and shellfish with marinades, toppings and other flavourings and complete ready meals and does not contain smoked fish as the main ingredient Source: Kantar Worldpanel

6 Lifestage Definitions Pre Family: 1 to 2 person households under 44 years without children Young Family: Younger households under 34 years with children Middle Family: Families where main shopper is between years and they have children 45+ Family:-Families where main shopper is 45+ years and they have children 15 years and under Older Dependents: This is a 45+ year household with 3+ persons in the household (no children) Empty Nesters: Older 45+ year households with 1 to 2 people and no kids *Please note that Children are defined as being 16 years and under. Source: Kantar Worldpanel

7 Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Fresh Fish Overview Loose Fish Performance Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels White Fish Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends in Total Grocery 7

8 Total Grocery Market Value and YoY Growth 52w/e 18 th June bn +2.9% Frequency Packs per Trip Price per Pack +1.6% +0.5% +0.2% 12w/e 18 th June bn +3.5% +0.4% +3.2% -1.1%

9 TOTAL GROCERY SECTORS VALUE SHARE & YOY % CHANGE 52 w/e 18 th June 2017 Alcohol is driving the YoY growth of the Total Grocery market. Fresh & Chilled and Frozen both growing ahead of the market. Share of total trolley Alcohol 4.9 Total Healthcare 4.2 Ambient Food 28.2% Household 6.6% Frozen 4.7% Toiletries 3.8% Healthcare 1.1% Fresh & Chilled Produce 48.2% Alcohol 7.6% Frozen Ambient Fresh & Chilled Total Grocery Total Toiletries Household -0.2 YoY % Change in Value Sales

10 Retailer Share & YoY Growth 52 w/e 18 th June 2017 SuperValu has the greatest market share over the latest 52 weeks, however it has lost share since LY Lidl, Aldi & Dunnes grow ahead of the market Aldi 5 Dunnes Lidl 3.8 Total Market 2.9 SuperValu 1.1 Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Retailer % Share of Value Sales Tesco -0.4 YoY % Change in Value Sales

11 Retailer Share & YoY Growth 12 w/e 18 th June 2017 SuperValu has also maintained first position in the latest 12 weeks, however only 2 ppts stand in the way of Tesco stealing the top spot Dunnes 4.5 Tesco Aldi 3.7 Total Market 3.5 Lidl 3.3 Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl SuperValu w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Retailer % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales

12 Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Loose Fish Performance Fresh Fish Overview Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels White Fish Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends in Total Grocery

13 Fish Drivers of Growth 52 w/e 18 th June 2017 vs LY Total Fish 245m +4% Penetration Frequency Volume per Trip Price per KG 95.8% 27.4 times 0.5 kg ppt +0.1% +0.3% +2.5% Fresh 175m 84% 21.1 times 0.4 kg % +1.5ppt +0.2% -1.5% +4.5% Frozen 70m 83.4% 11.7 times 0.5 kg % -0.3ppt -1.6% +3.1% -1.8%

14 Fish accounts for 2.4% of the Total Grocery Market. 52 w/e 18 th June 2017 Value % It is outperforming its growth at +4% YoY. 52w Total Grocery value % change YoY Total Grocery Beef 6.6 Total Poultry Poultry 4.2 Total Beef Total Pork Total Lamb Fish Total Grocery Total Fish Lamb 1.6 Pork -3.5 *Includes Fresh & Frozen Products

15 Protein Drivers of Growth Total Fresh & Frozen 52 w/e 18 th June 2017 Penetration Frequency Volume per Trip Price per KG Fish 95.8% 27.4 times +0.3ppt +0.1% 0.5 kgs +0.3% % Poultry 97.3% 31.8 times +0.1ppt -2.4% 1.1 kgs % % 96% 41 times 0.8 kgs 9.20 Beef +0.1ppt +0.3% +3.1% +2.4% 62.6% 11.6 times 0.8 kgs Lamb -0.4ppt -9.9% +13.9% -1% 80.5% 15.7 times 0.8 kgs 6.74 Pork -1.1ppt -7% +1.3% +3.1%

16 Protein Shopper Overlap The strongest relationship exists between the white meats. The majority of shoppers buy across all meat types. Poultry Beef 0.9% 0.4% Fish 1.8% Other 2.2% 0.1% 1.4% 12.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.4% 74.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.9% Market Penetration = 99.7% Penetration %

17 Who is a Seafood Shopper? 52 w/e 18 th June 2017 AB & E C2 Total Grocery Fresh Fish Frozen Fish Dublin Rest of Leinster Munster Connaught+Ulster Class AB Class C1 Class C2 Class D Class E Pre-Family Young Family Middle Family 45+ Family Older Dependents Empty Nesters Retired % Share of Value Sales

18 Total Fish Overview : In Summary Total Fish growing at +4% YoY, outperforming Total Grocery market, but underperforming vs Beef & Poultry. Beef & Poultry both driving increased volume per trip, while Total Fish is flat on this KPI. The majority of Irish shoppers (74.5%) buy across all meat types. Fresh Fish growing ahead of Frozen (+5.7% vs. -0.1%), driven by more shoppers, paying higher prices. Fresh Fish over-indexes among Empty Nesters & Retired shoppers based in Dublin. Frozen Fish over-indexes among Empty Nesters outside of Leinster.

19 Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Fresh Fish Overview Loose Fish Performance Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels White Fish Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends in Total Grocery

20 Value Share % Prepacked vs Loose Value Share & Change Prepacked accounts for the majority of Fresh Fish sales and is driving growth in the category. Although Loose is growing at a slower rate than prepacked, its performance has turned a corner since LY Total Fresh Fish Value 175m +5.7% % +13.3% +1.2% +7.2% Loose June 2016 Pre-Packed Loose June 2017 Pre-Packed

21 Fresh Fish has mostly gained spend from existing shoppers spending more vs LY. Some spend has also been gained by shoppers switching from Fresh Pork & Lamb, however there has also been a movement in spend away from Fish, into Fresh Beef & Poultry. Source of Fresh Fish Spend ( 000s) Change - 52 w/e 18 Jun 2017 Switching Spend ( 000s) to Fresh Fish - 52 w/e 18 Jun 2017 Fresh Pork 819 Total Switching 432 Fresh Lamb 384 Total Frozen Poultry 134 Shoppers Held 7,873 Total Frozen Fish 69 Frozen Beef 45 Shoppers Lost -45 Frozen Lamb Frozen Pork 4 42 All Others 0 Category Arrivals 10 Fresh Poultry+Game Fresh Beef

22 Fresh Fish Retailers Value Share and Change The Discounters, particularly Aldi, have had the strongest YoY growth. Value % Value Growth YoY Aldi Lidl Tesco Total Market Other Outlets Dunnes Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Marks & Spencer Aldi Lidl Other Outlets SuperValu -1.1 Marks & Spencer Jun Jun-17

23 Fresh Fish Retailers Drivers of Performance SuperValu & Dunnes are driving the price of Fresh Fish up in the market, while Aldi & Lidl are driving growth in shopper numbers. 18-Jun-17 vs. Previous Year Total Species Fresh Total Market 52 w/e Previous Year

24 Fresh Fish in Tesco Top 5 Species +15.2% +8.4% +6.3% Market Share Value Growth Volume Growth C2DE Social Class Salmon Cod Total Prawns 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Hake Trout +0.2 ppt +6.1% Older Dependents & Retired -1.1% +0.5% Dublin, Connaught & Ulster Value Share % Demographics over-indexing in Fresh Fish vs Total Grocery in store

25 Fresh Fish in SuperValu Top 5 Species 24.3% -1.1% -9.5% Market Share Value Growth Volume Growth Who are SuperValu s Fresh Fish Shoppers? ABC1 Social Class Salmon Cod Hake Total Prawns Coley -1.1ppt -7.6% 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Older Dependents & Retired +0.1% +9.3% Dublin Value Share % Demographics over-indexing in Fresh Fish vs Total Grocery in store

26 Fresh Fish in Dunnes Top 5 Species 20.7% +2% -8.8% Who are Dunnes Fresh Fish Shoppers? Market Share Value Growth Volume Growth ABC1 Social Class Salmon Cod Hake Coley Total Prawns 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun ppt -2.6% Retired -4.8% +11.8% Dublin, Connaught & Ulster Value Share % Demographics over-indexing in Fresh Fish vs Total Grocery in store

27 Fresh Fish in Aldi Top 5 Species 10.3% +31.1% +23.3% Who are Aldi s Fresh Fish Shoppers? Market Share Value Growth Volume Growth ABC1 Social Class +6.1ppt +3.1% Salmon Cod Total Prawns Value Share % Coley 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Mackerel +0.7% +0.1% Older Dependents & Retired Dublin & Munster Demographics over-indexing in Fresh Fish vs Total Grocery in store

28 Fresh Fish in Lidl Top 5 Species 17% +11.3% +17.3% Who are Lidl s Fresh Fish Shoppers? Market Share Value Growth Volume Growth ABC1 Social Class ppt +4% Salmon Cod Haddock Fish and Mackerel Shellfish Mix 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Value Share % +4.1% -5.1% Older Dependents, Empty Nesters & Retired Dublin Demographics over-indexing in Fresh Fish vs Total Grocery in store

29 Fresh Fish Overview : In Summary Prepacked driving the growth in Fresh Fish (+7.2% vs Loose +1.2%). Majority of spend has come through existing shoppers spending more vs last year. The Discounters had the strongest YoY growth in Fresh Fish, driven by increased shopper numbers. SuperValu is declining and losing market share as shopper numbers decrease and remaining shoppers reduce their purchase frequency.

30 Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Fresh Fish Overview Loose Fish Performance Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels White Fish Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends in Total Grocery

31 Loose Fresh Fish has seen some growth this year, however this has been driven only by a significant increase in average price, as shoppers drop out of the category & frequency and volume per trip decline. 18-Jun-17 vs. Previous Year Total Species Total Market Fresh Loose 52 w/e Previous Year

32 The latest 12 weeks have been more positive for Loose fish, as along with continued higher prices, an increase in shopper numbers has contributed to the YoY growth of +6%. vs. Previous Year Total Species Total Market Fresh Loose 12 w/e Previous Year

33 Breaking Down the Loose Fish Category YoY % Change & Value Share % Loose +1.2% (24.1%) Who is driving the growth of Loose? Raw +1.1% (97.1%) RTC -3.2% (2.6%) Families +18% Whole -8.5% (9.5%) Fillet +2.1% (89.6%) ABC1 Social Class +5.3% Shoppers in Munster +7.8% Natural +0.4% (91%) Smoked +16.3% (6.2%)

34 Loose Fish Species Value Share & Change Hake was the fastest growing species, at almost +34% YoY. Cod also saw strong growth and is gaining share, while Salmon, which accounts for 40.2% of the market, is in decline Hake 33.9 Cod Whiting 4.5 Salmon Haddock Mackerel -5.9 Salmon Cod Hake Haddock Whiting Mackerel Coley 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Coley -6.1 % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales

35 Loose Fish Species Performance Drivers Salmon s decline this period is primarily due to a number of shoppers no longer buying the species, as well as less volume bought per trip. Hake s growth came through a significant amount of new shoppers paying higher prices. Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg Total Species Cod Coley Haddock Hake Mackerel Salmon Whiting -10,000-8,000-6,000-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

36 SuperValu has the greatest share of Loose Fish (38.1%), however its sales are declining YoY. Other Outlets are driving the growth in Loose Fish at +8.2% YoY and are gaining market share Other Outlets Total Market 1.2 Dunnes SuperValu -2.7 Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Other Outlets Tesco w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 YoY % Change in Value Sales Retailer % Share of Value Sales * Other Outlets includes Fish Mongers, Road Side Stalls, Butchers, Other Grocers

37 Loose Fish Retailer Performance Drivers Shoppers have left the category across all of the retailers as price has risen. Growth in Dunnes & Other Outlets has also come through shoppers repurchasing loose fish more frequently than LY. Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg Total Market Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Other Outlets -8,000-6,000-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

38 Penetration % Retailer Opportunity if Fresh Fish shoppers were converted to purchase from the Loose Counter. Conversion Rate 25% 57% 32% Size of Prize for each retailer if they could convert just 1% of their Fresh Fish buyers to purchase from the Loose Counter: 165k 282k 317k Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Total Fresh Fish Loose

39 Loose Fish Performance : In Summary The growth of Loose (+1.2%) has been driven purely by increased average prices. In the shorter term (12w/e), increased shopper numbers as well as higher average prices have contributed to the stronger growth of +6%. Smoked Loose Fish makes up only 6.2% of sales, but has seen strong growth of +16.3% YoY. Salmon has the largest share of the market, but is in value decline of -2%, due to shoppers dropping out of this species & remaining shoppers purchasing less volume per trip. Hake saw the strongest YoY growth of +33.9%, driven by an increase in shoppers paying higher prices. Tesco & SuperValu s sales declined, due to a loss of shoppers & less trips. Other Outlets saw strong growth, driven by higher prices The greatest opportunity for Loose exists in Dunnes. If the retailer could convert 1% of their Fresh Fish shoppers to purchase from the Loose Counter, it would be worth 317k.

40 Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Fresh Fish Overview Loose Fish Performance Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels White Fish Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends in Total Grocery

41 Prepacked Fresh Fish is driving the growth in the market across all shopper metrics. 18-Jun-17 vs. Previous Year Total Species Total Market Fresh Prepacked 52 w/e Previous Year

42 Prepacked Fresh Fish Rolling 12we Performance The key factor driving growth in prepacked fish this year has consistently been new shoppers buying into the category. In the latest 12 weeks, increased shopper numbers was the key contributor to the +12.8% growth. vs. Previous Year Total Species Total Market Fresh Prepacked 12 w/e Previous Year

43 Which shoppers are driving the growth in prepacked? Older and Post - Families C2DE Social Class Shoppers in Munster & Dublin YoY % Change in Value Sales

44 Breaking Down the Prepacked Fish Category Performance YoY % Change & Value Share % Prepacked +7.2% (75.9%) Raw +9.7% (43.6%) RTC +9.5% (22.8%) RTE +2.8% (33.6%) Whole -18.4% (1.4%) Meats +25.2% (16.8%) Fillet +6.1% (89.1%) Natural +8.6% (43.4%) Smoked -0.4% (26%) Coated -1.6% (6%) With Sauce +45.2% (4.1%) Flavourings / Marinade +8.6% (12.8%) Surimi -2.9% (0.3%) Ready Meal +9.2% (2.2%)

45 Breaking Down the Prepacked Fish Category Performance YoY % Change & Value Share % Prepacked +7.2% (75.9%) Raw +9.7% (43.6%) RTC +9.5% (22.8%) RTE +2.8% (33.6%)

46 Raw is driving growth through increased shopping trips & higher prices, while RTC is attracting the most new shoppers & RTE is driving volume per trip. Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg Total Prepacked Raw RTC RTE -2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

47 Breaking Down the Prepacked Fish Category Performance YoY % Change & Value Share % Prepacked +7.2% (75.9%) Whole -18.4% (1.4%) Meats +25.2% (16.8%) Fillets +6.1% (89.1%)

48 Fillet & Meats are bringing new shoppers into the category and are being repurchased more frequently. Fillets have also increased in price, while greater quantities of Meats are purchased per trip. Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg Total Prepacked Fillet Meats Whole -2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

49 Breaking Down the Prepacked Fish Category Performance YoY % Change & Value Share % Prepacked +7.2% (75.9%) Natural +8.6% (43.4%) Smoked -0.4% (26%) Coated -1.6% (6%) With Sauce +45.2% (4.1%) Flavourings / Marinade +8.6% (12.8%) Surimi -2.9% (0.3%) Ready Meal +9.2% (2.2%)

50 Natural & With Sauce sectors are driving the price up of prepacked fish. Added Value sectors are bringing in new shoppers. Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg Total Prepacked Coated Flavourings or Marinade Natural Ready Meal Smoked Surimi With Sauce -6,000-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

51 Prepacked Fish Brands Value Share & Change Sales of Branded prepacked fish continue to plummet, now accounting for only 9.8% of the market. All of the growth in prepacked fresh fish is through Private Label Total Fresh Branded Branded PL 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Private Label % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales

52 Retailer Performance of Branded vs PL Prepacked Fish Branded Fresh Fish sales are in decline across all retailers apart from Aldi, which has grown its sales of branded over 79% YoY. Branded PL Private Label Branded Lidl Aldi Dunnes SuperValu Total Market Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl Tesco % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales

53 Which species are driving the growth of Prepacked? Hake, Trout, Prawns & Fish and Shellfish Mix have seen huge YoY growth in sales, while Mackerel & Seabass have sharply declined Hake Trout Total Prawns Fish and Shellfish Mix Cod Total Species Haddock Salmon Coley Crab Fish Mix -6.7 Mackerel Jun Jun-17 Sea Bass % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales

54 Which Prepacked Species are purchased most frequently? Salmon 11.9 times Prawns 5.9 times Cod 4.4 times Mackerel 3.7 times Hake 3.6 times Coley 3.6 times Fish & Shellfish Mix 3.6 times

55 Penetration %-Actual Prepacked Species Mapped A high number of shoppers & shoppers buying often is what makes Salmon, as well as Cod & Prawns, the most valuable fish types Total Species 60.0 Salmon More Shoppers 40.0 Cod Mackerel Total Prawns Haddock Hake 20.0 Coley Fish and Shellfish Mix Fish Mix Crab Sea Bass Whiting Frequency-Actual More Trips Bubble Size = Spend ( 000)

56 Best Performing vs Worst Performing Species What are the performance drivers? Sea Bass has lost shoppers, which is causing its huge decline, while shoppers are repurchasing Mackerel less often at lower prices. Hake, Trout, Prawns & Mix have all gained new shoppers & more trips.

57 Prepacked Fish in the Retailers Lidl has the greatest share of Fresh Prepacked Fish, and is growing ahead of the market, along with Aldi & Tesco Aldi Tesco Lidl 10.4 Total Market 7.2 Dunnes 2.5 SuperValu Jun Jun-17 Retailer % Share of Value Sales YoY % Change in Value Sales

58 Prepacked Fish Retailers Performance Drivers Tesco, Aldi & Lidl all driving growth in shopper numbers and frequency of purchase.

59 Prepacked Fish in the Retailers Top 3 Species by Retailer Value Share % Salmon Total Prawns Cod Salmon Hake Total Prawns Salmon Cod Total Prawns Salmon Cod Total Prawns Salmon Cod Mackerel

60 In Which Retailers is there Opportunity to Grow? Opportunities for prepacked fish exist in the Multiples. The biggest opportunity lies in SuperValu at 6.1m. Value % Index Tesco m SuperValu m Dunnes m Aldi Lidl Fresh & Chilled Fresh Prepacked Fish

61 Prepacked Fish Performance : In Summary Strong growth (+7.2%) due to increase across all shopper metrics Older shoppers in Dublin & Munster driving growth of prepacked. Added Value formats (eg. With Sauce / Flavours & Marinades / Coated / Ready Meals) are attracting new shoppers. PL driving the growth as Branded continues to decline in value sales. Hake, Trout, Prawns & Mix saw strongest growth, driven by increased shopper numbers & more frequent purchases. Seabass & Mackerel saw greatest decline. Lost shoppers and decreased volume per trip drove Seabass decline, while Mackerel shoppers paid lower prices and repurchased less often than LY. Aldi, Tesco & Lidl growing ahead of the Total Market, due to increased shopper numbers and more frequent trips. Opportunities exist for Dunnes, Tesco & SuperValu if they were to achieve their fair share in Prepacked Fresh Fish.

62 Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Fresh Fish Overview Loose Fish Performance Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels White Fish Looking Ahead

63 Mussels Drivers of Growth The value of Mussels has declined by -15% YoY. Despite gaining additional shoppers, people did not repurchase as frequently as LY, and lower prices also contributed to value losses.

64 Who is a Mussels Shopper? Mussels shoppers are less affluent and slightly younger than the average fish shopper Shoppers Aged Total Fish Mussels C2DE Social Class

65 Fresh Mussels Despite an increase in shoppers to the category, Fresh Mussels have declined across all other KPIs. June k 5.9% 2.4 times 0.65kg 5.89 June k 6.7% 2.1 times 0.6kg 5.39

66 Mussels : In Summary Mussels sales decline by -15% YoY. Despite an increase in shoppers into the category, lower prices and shoppers purchasing less often contributed to the decline. Mussels shoppers tend to be younger & less affluent than the average Fish shopper.

67 Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Fresh Fish Overview Loose Fish Performance Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels Fresh White Fish Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends in Total Grocery

68 White Fish has a strong majority share of the Frozen sector. However Salmon rules the Fresh sector, leaving White Fish with just under 30% market share. Value Share % : Total Market (Fresh & Frozen) Value Share % 18.7 Frozen Fresh Total White Fish Total Salmon All Others Total White Fish Total Salmon All Others

69 Fresh White Fish Drivers of Growth Fresh White Fish is growing ahead of the market at +10.5% YoY. Driven by an increase in shopper numbers and shoppers repurchasing this fish type more often than LY.

70 Value Share % Prepacked vs Loose Fresh White Fish Value Share & Change White Fish has turned its performance in the Loose category around, growing at +8% this year. However Prepacked continues to gain share, growing ahead of loose at +12% YoY % -5.2% +12% +8% Pre-Packed Loose Pre-Packed Loose June 2016 June 2017

71 Who is a Typical Fresh White Fish Shopper? Connaught+Ulster Munster Rest of Leinster Dublin Retired Empty Nesters Older Dependents 45+ Family Middle Family Young Family Pre-Family Older Dependents C2DE Social Class Dublin & Munster Class C2DE Class ABC1 White Fish Total Fresh Fish % Share of Value Sales

72 SuperValu has the greatest share of Fresh White Fish. Aldi has seen the strongest YoY growth, whereas Dunnes is the only retailer in which sales of fresh White Fish have declined Aldi SuperValu Lidl Tesco Total Market 10.5 Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl 52 w/e 19 Jun w/e 18 Jun 17 Retailer % Share of Value Sales Dunnes -7.2 YoY % Change in Value Sales

73 The Discounters are driving the growth in shopper numbers, attracting additional shoppers to purchase Fresh White Fish in store. SuperValu & Tesco are driving increased trips for White Fish. Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg Total Market Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl -2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

74 Retailers opportunity for growth The greatest opportunity for Fresh White Fish to grow exists in Tesco. If the retailer could achieve its fair share of the category, it would be worth an additional 1.5m. Value % Index Tesco m SuperValu Dunnes Aldi k Lidl k Total Fresh Fish White Fish

75 Fresh White Fish : In Summary White Fish accounts for 29.6% of the Fresh Fish category, and is growing ahead of the market at +10.5% YoY. Additional shoppers to the category & shoppers repurchasing more often contributed to the growth of White Fish. Strong growth in both Loose (+12%) & Loose (+8%). White Fish over-indexes among Older Dependents in Dublin & Munster. SuperValu has the greatest share of Fresh White Fish, & is growing ahead of the market due to increases across all KPIs. Aldi had the strongest YoY growth of +60.6%, primarily due to an increase in shoppers. There is an opportunity of 1.5m for Tesco if it could achieve its fair share of Fresh White Fish.

76 TODAY S AGENDA Total Grocery Headlines Total Fish Overview Fresh & Frozen Fresh Fish Overview Loose Fish Performance Prepacked Fish Performance Focus on Mussels White Fish Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends in Total Grocery

77 Shoppers have become more concerned about Is not the only factor influencing shopper s purchase behaviour Shopper are willing to pay a premium price for certain grocery market categories

78 Total Grocery Market has grown 1 2 by 9% over the last 5 years +6% Spend per Buyer +239% m +192% + 5m +7% +8% Packs per Buyer Frequency +173% + 5.7m +122% + 8.5m +119% + 3.3m

79 -42.7% m -36.5% - 5.5m 76% Diet Agree that their diet is important to them 72% Sugar Agree that they are trying to restrict the amount of sugar in their diet -31.3% - 4.3m -29.8% - 6.8m -28.2% m

80 When shopping for groceries I consider price to be the most important factor I will switch the brand I buy if an alternative is on offer I regularly shop around to make sure I get the best offers

81 At Total Grocery level, promotions are in decline Total grocery 12we 35 % Packs sold on promotion On Promotion A M J J A S O N D J F M M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A M J J A S O N D J J F M A

82 All retailers have decreased their % packs sold on promotion. The main categories reducing promotions are Alcohol, Ambient Bakery and Fruit and Veg. Promotions across Retailers % Packs sold on Promotion 30.6% 31.4% 34.9% 15.3% 17.5% LY 31.4% LY 36.6% LY 38.7% LY 18.0% LY 20.2% % change promotions +0.2% -14.1% -8.9% -12.4% -9.8% Categories driving decline on promo

83 Consumers behave differently to different categories YoY Change in Price Per Pack By Segment 52 w/e June 18 th 2017 EVERYDAY LOW PRICES PREMIUMISATION AMBIENT BAKERY -1.2% FROZEN FOOD -1.5% DAIRY CONFECTIONERY +1.6% ALCOHOL +2.1% BISCUIT -1.8% CANNED GOODS -2.6% -2.3% CHILLED BAKERY +0.9% PACKET BREAKFAST -2.7% CHILLED CONVENIENCE -2% FRUIT & VEG +1.5% FRESH MEAT +2.1%

84 Key Takeaways Loose Long Term Some growth, turning last year s decline around. Driven purely by increased prices. Shorter Term Stronger growth, due to an increase in shopper numbers alongside higher prices. Shoppers are willing to pay a premium price. Greatest Opportunity in Dunnes: If 1% of the retailer s Fresh Fish shoppers were converted to purchase from the Loose Counter, it would be worth an additional 317k. Prepacked Driving the growth of Fresh Fish, as all shopper metrics have increased. Fish with Added Value, such as Sauce and Marinades, are the strongest performing sectors. The Discounters & Tesco are driving the growth of prepacked Opportunities to grow the category exist for the top three Multiples size of prize if SuperValu were to achieve fair share is 6.1m. Older Demographics based in Dublin & Munster are our most valuable shoppers in prepacked.

85 For further information contact Ian Mannix or Gavin McGrath