Arctic Fisheries: Present and future perspectives

Transcription

1 Challenges of the Changing Arctic: Continental Shelf, Navigation and Fisheries Arctic Fisheries: Present and future perspectives Harald Loeng

2 Outline of the talk Some basic background what do we know Climate impact on the marine ecosystem What do we expect in the future?

3 Some basic background Photo credit NOAA. (

4

5 Fishing Intensity Arctic commercial fishing is regionally concentrated

6 Fishery activity

7 Number of fish stocks currently harvested by industrial Fisheries in the Arctic Oceans and adjacent seas Consequences of shifts in fish stocks Total of 59 Fish Species (Christiansen et al. 2014)

8 Arctic Fisheries Snapshot 3. Socio economics - Consequences of shifts in fish stocks Total Arctic Fish 7.26 million tonnes (10% global catch) Total Arctic Crustaceans 0.36 million tonnes (5.3% global catch) Total Arctic Aquaculture 0.2 million tonnes (7.7% global salmon trout) (Lindholt, 2005)

9 Climate impact on the marine ecosystems Photo credit NOAA. (

10 How climate affect species: directly and indirectly Sea birds and marine mamals Ocean climate Demersal fish Pelagic fish and larvae Zooplankton Temperature Current Transport Stratification Mixing Light Phytoplankton (Sundby. 2000)

11 South-North shift (km / 25 yrs) Shift in distribution of species in the Bering Sea Mean shift = 31 km Poacher, sculpins, sandlance Greenland halibut Shortfin eelpout Snow crab skates Pacific halibut Walleye pollock Mueter and Litzow, 2008

12 Capelin distribution

13 Distribution autumn 2012 Cod Haddock

14 Other species on the rim of the Arctic Ocean

15 Increasing open area in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean

16 What do we expect in the future? Photo credit NOAA. (

17 Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't! Anonymous

18 Scientific perspectives on climate change and Arctic fisheries 1. How will productivity of Arctic ecosystems change? 2. What species are most likely to migrate successfully to the Arctic to establish selfsustaining populations? 3. How are successful migrations likely to alter Arctic marine ecosystems?

19 Paul Wassmann 2011

20 Some criteria for establishing fish stocks in the Arctic Ocean Bottom topography Depth of migration corridors Climatic conditions Temperature and salinity Sea ice distribution Food conditions Phytoplankton and zooplankton Stock abundance

21 Evaluation of potential for species to move into high Arctic Species/Stock Current Main Areas High Potential Low Pacific ocean perch Bering Sea Beaked redfish Atlantic + Barent Sea Greenland halibut Northern Atlantic + Pacific Greenland shark Arctic Ocean + Adjacent Areas Arctic skate Arctic Ocean + Adjacent Areas Other Elasmobranchs Barent Sea Atlantic cod Barent Sea Atlanto-scandic herring Norwegian and Barent Seas Capelin Bering + Barent +Kara Seas + Arctic Northern rock sole Bering Sea Pacific cod Bering Sea Polar cod Barent Sea Walleye pollock Bering Sea Yellowfin sole Bering Sea Alaska plaice Bering Sea Bering flounder Bering Sea Snow crab Bering Sea TOTALS (Hollowed, et. al. 2013)

22 Adapted from Nedreaas et al. (2011) Red fish Hypothesized expansion of the distribution area of redfish under future ocean climate. Shaded areas and arrows indicate current distribution areas and migration routes. Plain colour areas and arrows indicate the potential fututure.

23 Change is coming to the northern oceans The productivity of cod in the Barents Sea and pollock in the Bering Sea in relation to changing climate Biomass (1000t) Five-year moving avarage of annual mean temperature (A) and SST (B) (Hollowed and Sundby 2014)

24 Management of fish stocks Management regimes with sufficient capacity, in terms of robust science, regulatory frameworks that contribute to reduced fishing effort and maintenance of sustainable stock levels, and enforcement capability, are more likely to respond adequately to the challenges posed by climate change than those that do not. North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission cover 8% of central Arctic Ocean Harsem and Hoel 2012 Pew Environment Group

25 Concluding remarks The north and eastward movement of species will depend on density distribution, temperature and food conditions Only pelagic species will potentially move into the deep Arctic Ocean Most likely no fishing activity in the Arctic Ocean the coming years.

26 Thank you for paying attention