The Science of Rebuilding Fisheries: State of Play and Current issues

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1 The Science of Rebuilding Fisheries: State of Play and Current issues Steve Murawski Director of Scientific Programs and Chief Science Advisor U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service OECD Workshop: Economics of Rebuilding Fisheries 21 May, 2009 Newport, Rhode Island Ecosystem Goal Team & Technology, Planning and Integration Program Office

2 Outline Background & Requirements for Rebuilding Plans Progress in Stock Rebuilding Status of Rebuilding Plans Experiences in Formal Rebuilding Plans (good, bad, ugly) Ecosystem Goal Team & Technology, Planning and Integration Program Office

3 Stock Rebuilding: Why? SOFIA 2008, FAO Ecosystem Goal Team & Technology, Planning and Integration Program Office

4 A comprehensive Review An overview of recent global experience with recovery plans for depleted marine resources and suggested guidelines for recovery planning J.F. Caddy & D.J. Agnew Reviews in Fish Biology & Fisheries case studies Pelagics more successful than demersals Non-Discretionary Controls Important Condition Center of geographical range Decadal Time Spans Ecosystem Goal Team & Technology, Planning and Integration Program Office

5 Basic Scientific Requirements of Rebuilding Sufficient science to warrant a stock rebuilding plan Stock Assessment capability to adequately measure progress Biological reference points in stock size & fishing mortality rate Ad hoc or decision theoretic basis for determining rebuilding targets Ecosystem Goal Team & Technology, Planning and Integration Program Office

6 North Sea Cod Article 6: Procedure for setting TACs. The TACs shall not exceed a level of catches which a scientific evaluation has indicated will result in an increase of 30 % in the quantities of mature fish in the sea at the end of the year not adopt a TAC whose capture is predicted to generate in its year of application a fishing mortality rate greater than 0.65 Except for the first year of application of this Article: (a) where the rules provided for in paragraphs 2 or 4 would lead to a TAC which exceeds the TAC of the preceding year by more than 15 %, the Council shall adopt a TAC which shall not be more than 15 % greater than the TAC of that year; or (b) where the rules provided for in paragraphs 2 or 4 would lead to a TAC which is more than 15% less than the TAC of the preceding year, the Council shall adopt a TAC which is not more than 15 % less than the TAC of that year. Ecosystem Goal Team & Technology, Planning and Integration Program Office

7 2.0 Current Year Stock Status - Status Determination F / F-MSY overfishing overfished no overfishing overfished 1/2 B-MSY overfishing not overfished F-MSY no overfishing not overfished Biomass / B-MSY

8 F2001/FMSY over over no over Alaskan Groundfish Stock Status 2002 EBS P-Cod GA Sable GA Pol 1/2 BMSY GA POP GA P-Cod AI POP EBS Pol A Mack overfishing not overfished GA Thorny EBS YF Sole EBS F Sole B2001/BMSY no overfishing not overfished EBS O Flats FMSY EBS EBS R Sole Turbot EBS Arrow GA Arrow

9 F 2002 / F-MSY Groundfish Stock Status overfishing not overfished 2.0 SNE/MA W Hake Witch 1.5 Win GM Cod Plaice F-MSY 1.0 S GB Had Pol GB YTF GB Win 0.5 no overfishing GM Win Wind GM Had Redfish N Window not overfished 0.0 Pout no overfishing overfished overfishing overfished CC/GM YTF SNE/MA YTF GB Cod 1/2 B-MSY Biomass 2002 / B-MSY

10 Georges Bank Haddock

11 Georges Bank Haddock Catch and F

12 Sea Scallop Abundance from NMFS Dredge Surveys Anticipate Supply will increase due to Exceptional Recruitment & Area Rotation Strategy

13 Bering Sea Pollock

14 North Pacific: 1. Blue King Crab Pribilof Islands Overfished Stocks (47) as of CY 4 th quarter 2008 New England: 1. Cod Gulf of Maine 2. Cod Georges Bank 3. Haddock Gulf of Maine 4. Haddock Georges Bank 5. American Plaice 6. Yellowtail flounder Georges Bank 7. Yellowtail flounder Southern New England/Middle Atlantic 8. Yellowtail flounder Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine 9. White Hake 10. Windowpane Flounder Southern New England/Middle Atlantic 11. Winter Flounder Southern New England/Middle Atlantic 12. Ocean Pout 13. Atlantic Halibut 14. Winter skate 15. Thorny Skate 16. Smooth Skate 17. *Atlantic Salmon Pacific: 1. *Chinook salmon - Northern California Coast: Klamath (fall) 2. Bocaccio 3. Darkblotched Rockfish 4. Cowcod 5. Yelloweye Rockfish Western Pacific 1. Seamount Groundfish Complex Hancock Seamount U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service Office of Sustainable Fisheries Mid-Atlantic: 1. Scup 2. Butterfish (Atlantic) South Atlantic: 1. Pink shrimp 2. Snowy grouper 3. Black Sea Bass 4. Red Porgy 5. Red Snapper Highly Migratory Species: 1. Blue Marlin Atlantic 2. White Marlin Atlantic Gulf of Mexico: 1. Red Snapper 2. Greater Amberjack 3. Gray Triggerfish Caribbean: 1. Grouper Unit 1 2. Grouper Unit 2 3. Grouper Unit 4 4. Queen Conch *Indicates non-fssi stock NOTE: This map does not include the results of GARM III. Northeast multispecies stock status is based on GARM II (assessed in 2005). 3. Sailfish West Atlantic 4. Albacore North Atlantic 5. Bluefin Tuna West Atlantic 6. Sandbar Shark 7. Porbeagle Shark 8. Dusky Shark 9. Blacknose Shark

15 Stocks Subject to Overfishing (42) as of CY 4 th quarter 2008 New England: 1. Cod Gulf of Maine 2. Cod Georges Bank 3. Yellowtail flounder Georges Bank 4. Yellowtail flounder Southern New England/Middle Atlantic 5. Yellowtail flounder Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine 6. White Hake 7. Winter Flounder Georges Bank 8. Winter Flounder Southern New England/Middle Atlantic 9. Thorny Skate Pacific: 1.Yellowfin Tuna Eastern Pacific 2.*Chinook salmon Northern California Coast: Klamath (fall) Pacific and Western Pacific 1. Bigeye Tuna Pacific U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service Office of Sustainable Fisheries Gulf of Mexico: 1. Red Snapper 2. Greater Amberjack 3. Gag 4. Gray Triggerfish 5.Pink Shrimp Gulf of Mexico * Indicates non-fssi stock Blue = Also Overfished NOTE: This map does not include the results of GARM III. Northeast multispecies stock status is based on GARM II (assessed in 2005). Mid-Atlantic: 1. Scup South Atlantic: 1. Vermilion Snapper 2. Red Snapper 3. Snowy Grouper 4. Tilefish 5. Red Grouper 6. Black Sea Bass 7. Gag 8. Black Grouper 9. Speckled Hind 10.Warsaw Grouper Highly Migratory Species: 1. Blue Marlin Atlantic 2. White Marlin Atlantic 3. Sailfish West Atlantic 4. Albacore North Atlantic 5. Bluefin Tuna West Atlantic 6. Sandbar Shark 7. Dusky Shark 8. Blacknose Shark 9. Shortfin Mako - Atlantic Caribbean: 1. Snapper Unit 1 2. Grouper Unit 1 3. Grouper Unit 4 4. Queen Conch 5. *Parrotfishes

16 Spawning Stock Biomass (thousands of metric tons) Georges Bank Haddock Actual SSB Median - Predicted Lower 80% CI - Predicted Upper 80% CI - Predicted Year

17 Stratified Mean Number per Tow Barndoor Skate back from the dead Goal Year

18 Survey Documents Recovery of Depleted Fishery Stocks Weight per Tow (kg) Total Exploitable Year

19 50 Retrospective Bias Summer Flounder SSB SSB (000s mt)

20 Retrospective Bias Fishing 2.5 Mortality F (ages 3-5)

21 Some Considerations in Stock Rebuilding Transparent and credible process Predefined Control Rules Complications of Control Measures (e.g., MPAs) Difficulty in ad hoc approaches

22 Vessel Hours 2003 VMS = 1-8 = 9-25 = = = Microsoft erpoint Presenta

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