7/14/2014. ICES advice for herring stocks in Template (as in previous years) State of stock table (as previous years) Advice online

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1 Basis for ICES Advice Management Plan Consistent with PA & recognised as potential basis for advice by competent authorities No ICES advice for herring stocks in 2015 Carmen Fernández, ICES ACOM vice-chair For Pelagic RAC (The Hague, July 9, 2014) ICES MSY approach No ICES PA approach All options in Outlook Table ICES MSY approach Maximize long term average yield Safeguard against low Stay within precautionary boundaries (WKMSYREF2, 2014) F MSY B trigger more caution needed F MSY Template (as in previous years) Two-pager simple information for managers Supporting information Background to two-pager State of stock table (as previous years) All advice available online at: Click on Follow Advisory process Latest advice In addition to advice items, principles and advice basis in document General context to ICES advice, 2014 Advice online 1

2 Herring in Subarea IV and Divisions IIIa and VIId North Sea autumn spawners (NSAS) Advice for 2015, 2008 EU-Norway MP: Catch of NSAS in all areas < t, including t for A fleet approach (F pa) Management plan (F MP) (at spawning time in autumn) approach (B pa,b lim) Management plan ( MP) Appropriate Below limit Full reproductive capacity fluctuating above Bpa F below F MSY Rec low in last decade (low productivity phase) New MP agreed by EU and Norway in 2014 Not yet evaluated by ICES (advice expected end of November); present advice follows 2008 MP Assessment this year consistent with last year s Survey information on 2014 recruitment currently under investigation; assessment estimate replaced with average recruitment of recent period Herring has major impact on other fish stocks as prey and predator; also prey for seabirds and marine mammals Herring abandon and repopulate spawning grounds; absence of spawning in a given year does not mean spawning ground is not required to maintain a resilient herring population Poor recruitment in last decade attributed to reduced survival at larval stage Directed fishery (human consumption) & bycatch in industrial fisheries Caught mixed with WBSS herring in eastern North Sea and Div IIIa Discards only quantified for part of fishery, but considered negligible. A major fleet (PFA) estimated to discard ~ 1%. HC fishery has little bycatch of other fish; evidence from observer programmes suggests herring discarding negligible Juvenile herring is bycatch in industrial fisheries; fishing industry informatio indicates discarding occurs in B fleet due to limit on herring landing Directed (HC) fishery and bycatch in industrial fisheries Mesh sizes: above 32 mm (directed) and below 32 mm (bycatch) TAC for HC fishery and bycatch ceiling for industrial fishery. Further separated into North Sea and Division IIIa. Fleets: Outlook for 2015 for NSAS herring in all areas: Assumptions on 2014 for NSAS herring catches in all areas: Full TAC taken by HC fleets; 45% of Div IIIa HC TAC taken in North Sea Industrial fleets: same proportion of herring bycatch ceiling uptake as recently Proportion of NSAS in herring catches in Div IIIa (fleets C and D) as in recent years Some catch of WBSS in North Sea In 2014: F(2-6)=0.26, F(0-1)=0.03, =1.9 million t BASIS A B F values by fleet and total C D F 2-6 F 0-1 Catches by fleet N SEA N SEA IIIA IIIA N SEA N SEA IIIA IIIA fleet A No fishing MP No TAC % TAC increase % TAC decrease F MSY MP relative to (2014) [ calculated at spawning time in autumn] Fleets C and D catches as predicted from WBSS stock advice and prop of NSAS in catch 2008 MP: > 1.5 mt F(2-6)=0.25 and F(0-1)=0.05 with 15% TAC constraint A B C D 2015 % %TAC 2

3 Herring in Division IIIa and Subdivisions (WBSS) Western Baltic Spring Spawners Advice for 2015, MSY: Wanted catch of WBSS in all areas < t Discard data not fully available and total catch can not be quantified Advice applies to catches of WBSS herring in IVa East, IIIa and Wanted catch refers to the fish that would be landed in the absence of the EU landing obligation approach (F pa,f lim) approach (B pa,b lim) Above target Full reproductive capacity increasing from lowest level, now above MSY Btrigger F has decreased in recent years, but remains above F MSY Low production period continues Western Baltic Spring Spawners Summer feeding migration to Div IIIa and IVa East mixes with NSAS herring (these are mostly the fastest growing WBSS adults) Increased mixing with central Baltic herring in Subdiv Major impact on other fish stocks as prey and predator, also prey for seabirds and marine mammals EU and Norway agreed in 2014 a TAC setting procedure for the human consumption TAC in Division IIIa (fleet C), taking into account the mixing of NSAS and WBSS Not yet evaluated by ICES (advice expected end of November) Western Baltic Spring Spawners Assessment consistent with last year s Uncertainty in predictions from lack of firm basis to predict the proportions of NSAS and WBSS herring in catches in Div IIIa and IVa East: natural variation in migration patterns, and variation in the fishery distribution between years (due, among others, to optional transfer of quotas between Div IIIa and IV) Increased mixing with Central Baltic herring in recent years adds further uncertainty Directed (human consumption) & bycatch in industrial fisheries Mesh sizes: above 32 mm (directed) and below 32 mm (bycatch) TAC: TAC for directed fishery in Div IIIa Bycatch ceiling for industrial fishery in Division IIIa TAC for fishery in SD Fleets: Area where WBSS caught Fleet Fishery WBSS 2013 landings NSAS 2013 landings Division IIIa C Directed herring fisheries with purse-seiners and trawlers t t D Bycatches of herring caught in the small-mesh fisheries t t Subdivisions F All herring fisheries in Subdivisions t - Division IVa East A Directed herring fisheries with purse-seiners and trawlers. 452 t > 70 kt total discards can not be quantified No quantitative discard information reported to ICES in 2014 submission cycle For 2 fisheries from Germany, which land about 25% of stock total, no discards detected by observer or harbour sampling programmes Indications that discarding and/or slipping of herring in sprat fishery may have increased in recent years (amount unquantified -- but unlikely to have exceeded bycatch ceiling) Whereas issues are similar to NSAS, the fisheries with possible discard issues form a larger part of the stock catch for WBSS than for NSAS; hence the different conclusions about whether discards are considered as negligible or unquantified. 3

4 Outlook for 2015 for WBSS herring in all areas (does not include NSAS catch): Assumptions on 2014: Fleet C: 55% of Division IIIa TAC taken in Div IIIa (rest taken in North Sea) Fleet D: 54% of bycatch ceiling (fleet B) taken Fleet F: full TAC taken Proportion of NSAS in herring catches in Division IIIa (fleets C, D) as in recent years Some catch of WBSS herring in North Sea Rationale Wanted catch Basis F Wanted catch (2016) (2016) relative to [ calculated at spawning time in spring] > MSY Btrigger (110 kt) F= F MSY = 0.28 % % advice w.r.t. last year s advice MSY approach F MSY % +7% F(2014) Zero catch 0 F(2014) % 100% F(2014) % +18% Other options F(2014) % +29% F(2014) % +40% 2014 EU-Norway agreement on TAC for C fleet in IIIa (WBSS+NSAS herring): x TAC(A fleet from 2014 MP) x MSY-advice for WBSS = x x = t with 15% TAC constraint: TAC(C fleet in 2014) x 0.85 = x 0.85 = t ICES has not yet evaluated this rule It is also understood that 50% of advised WBSS wanted catch is set as the TAC for SDs t Celtic Sea & West Scotland ecoregion Fastest growing WBSS adults mix with the much larger NSAS stock in Div IVa East. Amount of mixing variable from year to year and estimates highly uncertain. If herring catches substantially increase in Div IVa East, the risk of overexploiting WBSS increases. WBSS is the stock most in need of protection at the moment and, therefore, exploitation in this mixing area should not increase. Optional quota transfer adds uncertainty to forecast: for 2014, 45% transfer assumed (PelRAC); for 2015, no transfer assumed Estimation of stock identity of herring from IVaEast should improve VIa (North) West of Scotland MP VIa (South) & VIIb,c considerations VIIa North MSY VIIa South & VIIg,h,j,k Celtic Sea and S Ireland MSY Division VIa North (West of Scotland) Division VIa (North) Advice for 2015, MP: Catch < t approach (F pa,f lim) Management plan (F MGT) approach (B pa,b lim) Management plan (B MGT) Just above target Just above target Above Blim lower since 1977 Recruitment also lower (lower productivity since late 1980s) F around F MSY MP adopted by EU in 2008: different values of F and TAC constraints depending on 4

5 Division VIa (North) Part of Malin Shelf stock complex (shelf north of Ireland & west of Scotland) Components of neighbouring herring stocks in south present seasonally in Div VIa (North) mixing Studies ongoing in acoustic survey to evaluate level of mixing Refrigerated Sea Water trawlers and freezer trawlers Since 2006 fishery mostly in northern part of Div VIa (North) in Quarter 3 Generally clean fisheries, little bycatch, low discarding of herring Discards considered negligible In 2013, adequate sampling in Q 3 and 4; no sampling in Q1 (6% of catch) It would be better to sample all quarters with fishing activity Division VIa (North) Rationale Catch Basis F TAC Management plan F(2014) % -19% MSY approach F MSY % -19% Zero catch 0 F = % -100% Other options F(2014) % -20% F(2014) % 0% F(2014) % +20% relative to (2014) [ calculated at spawning time, in autumn] MP: > 75 kt F=0.25 with 20% TAC constraint Benchmark in 2015 for herring in VIa North and herring in VIa South and VIIb,c Stock mixing will be addressed at benchmark Advice for 2015, considerations: No catch MSY (FMSY) approach (Fpa,Flim) Qualitative evaluation MSY (Btrigger) approach (Bpa,Blim) Qualitative evaluation Above target Harvested unsustainably High, but declining Reduced reproductive capacity Declining Fmsy Exploratory assessment (Category 2), using a Malin Shelf stock-specific index: at time series lowest, well below Blim F high and above possible reference points Recruitment very low in recent years Part of Malin Shelf stock complex (shelf north of Ireland & west of Scotland) Stock migrates outside stock boundaries: considerable mixing with neighbouring stocks (mainly in west of Scotland) Fishery entirely by RSW pelagic trawlers and dry-hold vessels Low quotas in recent years have confined fishery to few locations Discards considered negligible Assessments exploratory, but considered a good indicator of trends Uses Malin Shelf acoustic survey disaggregated for this stock (since 2008) Benchmark in 2015 for herring in VIa North and herring in VIa South and VIIb,c Stock mixing will be addressed at benchmark Rationale Catches 2015 Basis Relative F 2015 % TAC % approach 0 F = % 100% Rebuilding plan HCR 90 Rebuilding plan HCR % 98% Data-limited approach, 0 Catch = % 100% extremely low biomass when transboundary catches are subtracted, this option gives 0 catch Advice follows considerations: well below Blim no catch Rebuilding plan: Proposed by PelRAC in STECF evaluation found it capable of rebuilding stock above Bpa only if transboundary catches are eliminated. ICES has not evaluated this plan. Transboundary catches are stock catches beyond the TAC boundary area; estimated based on expert judgment of fishing patterns in recent years When transboundary catch is accounted for, Clauses 2 and 3 of the rebuilding plan give zero catch. 5

6 Transboundary catches are likely to continue because the stock is not restricted to the TAC area, especially during the summer and autumn: expected to be caught in fisheries across the Malin Shelf. outtake from the stock not regulated by the TAC; measures to reduce transboundary catch required. Clause 6 of rebuilding plan defines a closed area in neighbouring Division VIaN. Further work is required to evaluate if this closed area will be effective. Preliminary analyses suggest that Divisions VIaS and VIIbc herring are present in Division VIaN beyond the limits of the proposed exclusion zone. This suggests the proposed exclusion zone would not be expected to eliminate the exploitation of Divisions VIaS and VIIbc herring in Division VIaN. Division VIIa South of 52º 30 and Divisions VIIg,h,j,k (Celtic Sea & South of Ireland) Advice for 2015, MSY: Catch < t. approach (F pa, F lim) approach (B pa, B lim) F below F MSY above Bpa and MSY Btrigger Appropriate Full reproductive capacity Good Recruitment in recent years Benchmarked in 2014 LTMP agreed by Pelagic RAC in 2011: target F=0.23 and 30% TAC constraint. Evaluated by ICES in 2012 and 2014 (after benchmark) and found precautionary A proportion of juveniles are in, and return to spawn in Celtic Sea Main fishery by pelagic trawlers in coastal spawning and offshore feeding grounds Considerable efficiency creep since 1980s Discarding currently negligible (related to s in quota management ; estimated at 0.9% in 2013) Sprat landings have increased substantially; juvenile herring may be a bycatch in sprat fishery and can be difficult to distinguish Benchmarked in 2014 Assessment very sensitive to acoustic survey abundance estimate Survey index showed a very big increase in 2012 (to highest time series level) and then decreased substantially in 2013, causing strong revision to assessment estimates in recent years Uncertainty in recruitment (1-ringers) estimates As 50% of 1-ringers are assumed mature, there is also uncertainty in estimates Possible new benchmark in 2015 (currently under discussion) Rationale Catch Basis F relative to (2014) [ calculated at spawning time, in autumn] MSY approach: (2014) = 59.6 kt < MSY B trigger (61 kt) F = 0.36 < F MSY (0.37) [F MSY =0.37 derived after benchmark; value subject to review in 2015] LTMP: target F=0.23 with 30% TAC constraint results in 30% TAC decrease Plan provides stability of catches over time, at expense of maximising yield % % TAC MSY approach F MSY 2014/MSY B trigger % 32% Long-term management plan Management plan % 30% Zero catch 0 Zero catch % 100% Other options > MGT % 63% F MSY % 31% F % 18% 6

7 Division VIIa North of 52º 30 () Advice for 2015, MSY: Catch < t approach (F pa,f lim) approach (B pa,b lim) Appropriate Full reproductive capacity above MSY Btrigger since 2006 Recruitment above average since 2006 F around F MSY MP under development Part of Malin Shelf stock complex (shelf north of Ireland & west of Scotland) Mixing in west of Scotland & with juvenile Celtic Sea herring in Pelagic trawling in Q 3 and 4 + small local gillnet fishery in Q 4 No observations of discarding or slippage in fisheries targeting herring ; discards considered negligible Generally clean fisheries, little bycatch of other fish or cetaceans Inter-annual variation in migration patterns affects selectivity of fishery and survey survey timing sometimes mismatched with migration pattern Mixing (in ) with juvenile herring from Celtic Sea stock affects estimates of younger ages Rationale MSY approach Catch Basis F F MSY % %TAC 12% 8% Zero catch 0 F = % 100% Other options TAC 15% (F ) Stable TAC (F ) % 15% 13% 0% TAC +15% (F ) % +15% relative to (2014) [ calculated at spawning time, in autumn] MSY approach: (2014) = 19.2 kt > MSY B trigger (9.5 kt) F= F MSY =0.26 Assessment: Benchmarked in 2012 Thank you! Comments/Questions? 7