Fish Stock Status. 10 th November 2016 Seafish Common Language Group Friend s House, Euston Road, London NW1 2BJ
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1 Fish Stock Status 10 th November 2016 Seafish Common Language Group Friend s House, Euston Road, London NW1 2BJ Dr Carl O Brien Defra Chief Fisheries Science Adviser UK Delegate to ICES
2 Three main topics are covered: Focus on stocks in the North-East Atlantic Overview of global trends December Council 2016 and the setting of TACs and quotas for 2017 Outline of presentation
3 Decisions made should be based on: Scientific advice Sustainability (MSY) Need for continued discard reduction (unwanted catch) Three Ministerial principles
4 December Council outcome
5 UK s progress towards MSY - fishing mortality
6 UK s progress towards MSY - spawning stock biomass
7 Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) Fisheries management measures critical MSFD eleven descriptors
8 Proportion of total international catch of stocks of UK interest partitioned among assessment status with respect to F MSY
9 Proportion of total international catch of stocks of UK interest partitioned among assessment status with respect to MSY B trigger
10 U.S. Fisheries 2014 NOAA Overfishing harvest rate > MSY rate Overfished population size that is too low Both at their lowest point since 1997 U.S. Fisheries NOAA
11 Source: FAO (2016). 69% of stocks sustainably fished in The FAO approach is weighted to larger stocks which are generally in better condition than smaller stocks based on an analysis of stocks in the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database (e.g. Hilborn and Ovando, 2014). Trends in state of stocks globally
12 Proportions of catch from stocks included in the database see: Compilation of stock assessments from around the world
13 Advice in 2015 for 2016 Advice in 2016 for 2017: For stocks only partially under the EU landing obligation in 2016, ICES is not in a position to advise on landings in 2017 corresponding to the advised catch in Methodological issue! Expect Commission to ask STECF ICES advice in 2016 for 2017
14 Event Release of ICES Advice: Main tranche 30 June Pelagic - 30 September Remaining advice (including skates and rays) 31 October Revised advice (cod, saithe and Nephrops) 11 November (tomorrow) Commission s TQR Proposal UK Stakeholder Event Discussions with stakeholders, NGOs, Member States and Commission Coastal States Possible further discussions EU/Norway Negotiations Round November Round 2 28 November 2 December EU/Faroes Negotiations Fisheries Council Date June - November 27 October 8 November mid-november early December w/c 21 November November - December 6-7 December December Timetable
15 Generally, prospects look good: Continuing improvements in terms of sustainable fishing North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat West of Scotland, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea ICES advice released this year (2016 for 2017)
16 Stock F(2013) SSB(2014) Cod in Division VIIa Irish Sea roundfish and flatfish Haddock in Division VIIa Whiting in Division VIIa Plaice in Division VIIa Sole in Division VIIa Status in pictogram F < F MSY : appropriate F < F MSY : above target SSB > B pa : Full reproductive capacity B lim < SSB < B pa : Increased risk SSB < B lim : Reduced reproductive capacity F(2014) F(2015) SSB(2015) SSB(2016) Personal reflection
17 Stock F(2015) SSB(2016) Cod in Division VIIa Irish Sea roundfish and flatfish Haddock in Division VIIa Whiting in Division VIIa Plaice in Division VIIa Sole in Division VIIa Irish Sea roundfish and flatfish
18 Stock F(2015) SSB(2016) Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and North Sea herring stocks Herring in Division VIIa (North) Herring in Celtic Sea and Division VIIj Herring in Subarea IV, Division VIId and Division IIIa (autumn spawners) Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and North Sea herring stocks
19 Irish Sea Stock TAC 2016 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2016 TAC) 2017 TAC proposal/uk quota (tonnes) (diff % 2016 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Haddock VIIa 1,654 Catch 1,286 pm Data-Limited Method 'Biomass Index'. 'Use-it-or-lose-it' based on landings < TAC. Herring 4,575 Land 4,127 (-10%) 4,127/3,053 (-10%) MSY VIIa Cod VIIa 146 zero catch pm MSY (MP advises -20%) Precautionary considerations; Whiting 80 zero catch 80/42 Roll-over Subject to 5232/14 and a TAC rollover. VIIa Sole VIIa 40 zero catch 0 (-100%) MSY Plaice VIIa 1,098 Land 436 (-60%) 1098/562 Roll-over Data-Limited Method 'Biomass Index'. 'Use-it-or-lose-it' based on landings < TAC.
20 Stock TAC 2016 (tonnes) Cod VIa 0 West of Scotland ICES Advice (tonnes) (dif % 2016 TAC) No directed fishery zero catch Whiting VI 213 zero catch Haddock VIa 6462 Haddock Rockall VIb 3,225 Nephrops VI 16,524 Blue Ling Vb, VI, VII Herring VIb & VIaN 5,046 Advice due November 2016 Land 4,690 (+15%) Land 16,317 (- 1%) Land 10,763 (+124%) 2017 TAC proposal/uk quota (tonnes) (dif % 2016 TAC) 0 TAC Roll-over 0/0 (-100%) pm Type of Advice / Notes MSY VIa advice is MSY Approach; VIb advice is Data-limited Method 'Precautionary reduction'. N/A 4,130/3,329 (+28%) MSY pm pm Functional Unit with the sum at MSY MSY 4,170 zero catch 3,480/2,102 (-17%) MSY
21 Stock F(2015) SSB(2016) North Sea & Eastern Channel roundfish & flatfish Cod in Subarea IV (North Sea), Division VIId (Eastern Channel) and Division IIIa (Skagerrak) Haddock in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division IIIaN (Skagerrak) Whiting in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division VIId (Eastern Channel) Saithe in Subarea IV (North Sea), Division IIIa (Skagerrak) and Subarea VI (West of Scotland and Rockall) Plaice in Subarea IV Plaice in Division VIId (Eastern Channel) Sole in Subarea IV Sole in Division VIId (Eastern Channel) Due in November 2016 North Sea & Eastern Channel roundfish & flatfish
22 North Sea Stock TAC 2016 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (dif % 2016 TAC) 2017 TAC proposal/uk quota (tonnes) (dif % 2016 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Cod IV 33,651 Catch 32,212 pm MSY Haddock IV 61,933 Advice due in November 2016 pm NA Herring 531,624 Land 435,984 (-18%) pm EU-Norway MP Plaice IV 131,714 Catch 121,523 pm MSY Whiting IV 13,678 Catch 18,115 pm MSY Saithe IIIa & IV 65,696 Catch 100,491 pm MSY Nephrops IV 13,700 Land 13,222 (-3%) 13,686/11,854 (-0.1%) Functional Unit with the sum at MSY, Advice for FUs 6,7 and 8 being reviewed
23 Stock F(2015) SSB(2016) Western Channel & Bristol Channel flatfish and roundfish Sole in Division VIIe Plaice in Division VIIe Sole in Division VIIfg Plaice in Division VIIfg Sole in Division VIIh-k Plaice in Division VIIh-k Cod in Division VIIe-k Haddock in Division VIIb-k Whiting in Division VIIe-k Status Unknown / undefined Increasing Unchanged Decreasing Western Channel & Bristol Channel flatfish & roundfish
24 Stock F(2015) SSB(2016) Northern hake in Division IIIa, Subbareas IV, VI and VII, and Divisions VIIIa,b,d Anglerfish in Division VIIb-k and VIIIa,b,d Megrim in Division VIIb-k and VIIIa,b,d Anglerfish in Divisions IIIa and Subareas IV and VI Megrim in Divisons IVa and VIa Megrim in Dvisions VIb (Rockall) F(2015) SSB(2016) European sea bass Northern hake, anglerfish & megrim/european sea bass
25 Stock Cod Celtic Sea VIIbc,e-k TAC 2016 (tonnes) Celtic Sea & Channel - Part 1 ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2016 TAC) 4,565 Land 1,447 (-68%) 2017 TAC proposal/uk quota (tonnes) (diff % 2016 TAC) 1,447/114 (-68%) Type of Advice / Notes MSY Haddock Celtic Sea VIIb-k 7,258 Land 7,751 (+7%) 7,751/775 (+7%) MSY Whiting Celtic Sea VIIb-k 22,778 Catch 28,060 pm MSY Anglerfish VII 33,516 No new advice Herring Celtic Sea VIIg-k 15,442 Land 16,145 (+5%) Megrim (VII) 18,254 Land 12,477 (-31%) 29,534/5,311 (-12%) 14,467/18 (-6%) 13,099/1,878 (-28%) Nephrops VII 23,348 Land 19,241 (-18%) pm Data-Limited Method 'Biomass Index' MSY MSY FU16 (Porcupine) has an of which provision
26 Stock TAC 2016 Celtic Sea & Channel - Part 2 ICES Advice (diff % 2016 TAC) 2017 TAC proposal/uk quota (diff % 2016 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Sole Western Channel VIIe 979 Catch 1,198 1,178/693 (+20%) MSY approach; MP not evaluated by ICES. Sole Eastern Channel VIId Sole Celtic Sea VIIhjk Sole Bristol Channel VIIfg Plaice Channel VIIde Place Celtic Sea VIIhjk Plaice Bristol Channel VIIfg 3,258 Land 2,487 (-24%) 2,257/434 (-31%) MSY 382 Land 223 (-41%) 382/64 Roll-over Data-limited method - 'biomass index'; Subject to 5232/14 and a TAC roll-over. 779 Catch /220 (+0.4%) MSY 12, Land 10,022 (-19%) Land 86 (-36%) Land 405t (-4%) 10,022/2,915 (-19.5%) 108/14 (-20%) 405/95 (-3.5%) MSY Data-limited method - 'biomass index'; Subject to 5232/14 and a TAC roll-over. Data-Limited Method 'Biomass index'.
27 Pelagics Stock TAC 2016 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2016 TAC) 2017 TAC proposal/uk quota (tonnes) (diff % 2016 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic 895,900 MSY- Catch 944,302 (+5%) MP- Catch 1,020,966 (+14%) pm MSY/MP Blue whiting in Subareas I-IX. XII and XIV (combined stock) TAC not agreed Catch 1,342,330 pm MSY Atlanto-Scandian Herring Western Horse mackerel IIa, Iva, VI, VIIa-c, VIIe-k, VIIIa, VIIb, VIIId and VIIIe North Sea Horse Mackerel IVb-c, VIId 316,876 (EU share - 20,629) Catch 646,075 (+104%) pm MP 108,868 Catch 69,186 (-36%) pm MSY 15,200t Catch 18,247 (+20%) pm Boarfish 42,637 Catch 27,288 (-36%) Sprat in Subarea IIa and IV (North Sea) Sprat VIId,e (English Channel) 27,288/1,734 (-36%) Precautionary approach Data-limited method - 'biomass index' 245,000 Catch 125,541 (-49%) pm MSY 5,150 Catch 3,678 (-28%) 4,120/2,163 (-20%) Precautionary approach Clyde Herring VIa 583 Advice due early 2017 To be established Established by the UK
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