8.9 SWO-ATL ATLANTIC SWORDFISH

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SWO-ATL 8.9 SWO-ATL ATLANTIC SWORDFISH The status of the North and swordfish stocks was assessed in 2017, by means of applying statistical modelling to the available data up to Complete information on the data availability and assessment can be found in the Reports of the 2017 ICCAT Swordfish Data Preparatory and Stock Assessment Meetings (Anon, 2017h and i). Other information relevant to Atlantic swordfish is presented in the Report of the Sub-committee on Statistics, included as Appendix 9 to this SCRS Report, and recommendations pertinent to Atlantic swordfish are presented in Item 19. SWO-ATL-1. Biology Swordfish (Xiphias gladius) are members of the family Xiphiidae and are in the suborder Scombroidei. They can reach a maximum weight in excess of 500 kg. They are distributed widely in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. In the ICCAT Convention area, the management units of swordfish for assessment purposes are a separate Mediterranean group, and North and groups separated at 5 N. New genetic information was reviewed that indicated that the existing stock boundaries should be refined for the Atlantic and Mediterranean stocks. While recognizing the importance of the work, the Committee noted that the stock boundaries are approximations, and the possible impacts of seasonal changes and oceanographic processes in resource distribution need to be fully understood. Swordfish feed on a wide variety of prey including groundfish, pelagic fish, deep-water fish, and invertebrates. They are believed to feed throughout the water column, and from electronic tagging studies, undertake extensive diel vertical migrations. Swordfish mostly spawn in the western warm tropical and subtropical waters throughout the year, although seasonality has been reported in some of these areas. They are found in the colder temperate waters during summer and fall months. Young swordfish grow very rapidly, reaching about 140 cm LJFL (lower-jaw fork length) by age three, but grow slowly thereafter. Females grow faster than males and reach a larger maximum size. Tagging studies have shown that some swordfish can live up to 15 years. Swordfish are difficult to age, but about 50% of females were considered to be mature by age five, at a length of about 180 cm. However, the most recent information indicates a smaller length and age at maturity. The analysis of the horizontal movements evidences seasonal patterns, with fish generally moving south by winter and returning to the temperate foraging grounds in spring. Broader areas of mixing between some eastern and western areas were also suggested. These new results obtained by pop-up satellite tags also fully confirm the previous knowledge that was available from fishery data: deep longline settings catch swordfish during the day-time as a by-catch, while shallow setting longliners target swordfish at night closer to the surface. SWO-ATL-2. Fishery indicators Due to the broad geographical distribution of Atlantic swordfish (SWO ATL-Figure 1) in coastal and offshore areas (mostly ranging from 50ºN to 45ºS), this species is available to a large number of fishing countries. SWO ATL-Figure 2 shows total estimated catches for North and swordfish. Directed longline fisheries from Canada, EU-Spain, and the United States have operated since the late 1950s or early 1960s, and harpoon fisheries have existed at least since the late 1800s. Other directed swordfish fisheries include fleets from Brazil, Morocco, Namibia, EU-Portugal, South Africa, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The primary by-catch or opportunistic fisheries that take swordfish are tuna fleets from Chinese Taipei, Japan, Korea and EU-France. The tuna longline fishery started in 1956 and has operated throughout the Atlantic since then, with substantial catches of swordfish that are produced as a by-catch of tuna fisheries. The largest proportion of the Atlantic catches is made using surface-drifting longline. However, many additional gears are used, including traditional gillnets off the coast of western Africa. Trends by area (NE vs. NW Atlantic) in the CPUE indexes were consistent with the seasonal movement patterns observed in the electronic tagging data, as well as in the catches and sex-ratio distributions. Relationships observed for the eastern Atlantic were opposite to those in the western Atlantic. This pattern was correlated with the decadal cycling of the AMO as well as that of the Oscillation (NAO). Including the AMO as a covariate to area specific catchability within the assessment model helped reduce the conflicting directions of the various CPUE trends. Further analysis and hypothesis testing was 149

2 ICCAT REPORT (II) recommended to determine if the relationship was due to a swordfish temperature preference, a change in prey distribution, or perhaps both. To support this hypothesis testing the Group encouraged a group of swordfish scientists to work towards uniting the available swordfish CPUE data into a single dataset so that a more refined, area specific CPUE analyses could be conducted. For both the North and some of the indices of abundance were affected by changes in gear technology and management that could not be accounted for in the CPUE standardization, and therefore had to be split. Total Atlantic The total Atlantic estimated catch (landings plus dead discards) of swordfish (North and South, including reported dead discards) in 2016 (18,129 t) was 13.7% lower than the reported catch of 2015 (20,998 t). As a small number of countries have not yet reported their 2016 catches and because of unknown unreported catches, this value should be considered provisional and subject to further revision. The trends in mean fish weight taken in the North and fisheries are shown in SWO-ATL- Figure 3. For the past decade, the estimated catch (landings plus dead discards) has averaged about 12,000 t per year (SWO-ATL-Table 1). The catch in 2016 (10,404 t) represents a 48.6% decrease since the 1987 peak in landings (20,238 t). These reduced landings have been attributed to ICCAT regulatory recommendations and shifts in fleet distributions, including the movement of some vessels in certain years to the or out of the Atlantic. In addition, some fleets, including at least the United States, EU-Spain and EU-Portugal have changed operating procedures to opportunistically target tuna and/or sharks, taking advantage of market conditions and higher relative catch rates of these species previously considered as by-catch in some fleets. Recently, socio-economic factors may have also contributed to the decline in catch. Available catch per unit effort (CPUE) series were evaluated by the Committee and certain indices were identified as suitable for use in the assessment models (Canada, EU-Portugal, EU-Spain, Japan, Morocco, and USA). Trends in standardized CPUE series by fleets contributing to the stock assessment models are shown in SWO-ATL-Figure 4. Most of the series have an increasing trend since the late 1990s, but show a decrease in the more recent years. There have been some recent changes in United States regulations that may have impacted catch rates. The combined index used as the continuity model from the previous assessment is shown in SWO-ATL-Figure 5. The historical trend of catch (landings plus dead discards) can be divided in two periods: before and after The first one is characterized by relatively low catches, generally less than 5,000 t (with an average value of 2,300 t). After 1980, landings increased continuously up to a peak of 21,930 t in 1995, levels that are comparable to the peak of harvest (20,238 t in 1987). This increase of landings was, in part, due to progressive shifts of fishing effort to the, primarily from the, as well as other waters. Expansion of fishing activities by southern coastal countries, such as Brazil and Uruguay, also contributed to this increase in catches. The reduction in catch following the peak in 1995 resulted from regulations and was partly due to a shift to other oceans and target species. In 2016, the 7,725 t of reported catch was about 65% lower than the 1995 reported level (SWO-ATL-Table 1). The SCRS received reports from Brazil and Uruguay over the last years that they have reduced their fishing effort directed towards swordfish in recent years. Uruguay recently received increased albacore quotas that may allow increased effort for swordfish in the near future. Available catch per unit effort (CPUE) series for the south Atlantic swordfish were evaluated by the Committee and certain indices were identified as suitable for use in assessment models (Brazil, EU-Spain, Japan, South Africa, Uruguay). The available indices are illustrated in SWO-ATL-Figure

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SWO-ATL Discards Since 1991, very few fleets have reported dead discards (see SWO-ATL-Table 1). The volume of Atlanticwide reported discards by these fleets has ranged from a minimum of 157 t in 2009 to a maximum of 1,139 t in 2000, with 105 t reported for The Committee continued to express concerns due to the low percentage of fleets that have reported annual dead discards (in t) in recent years and that what has been reported is not necessarily scaled to the entire fishery. SWO-ATL-3. State of the stocks Three stock assessment platforms were used to provide estimates of stock status for the swordfish stock, a surplus production model (ASPIC - A Stock Production Model Incorporating Covariates), a Bayesian surplus production model with process error (BSP2 - Bayesian Surplus Production 2) and an integrated assessment model (SS - Stock Synthesis). Stock status was determined from SS and BSP2 models, while ASPIC was used mainly to provide continuity with the previous assessments. The final base case SS model estimated that B2015 was above BMSY (median = 1.13, 95% CIs = ) and F2015 was lower than FMSY (median = 0.75, 95% CIs = ) (SWO-ATL-Figure 7). The final base case BSP2 model estimated that current biomass (B2015) was near BMSY (median = 0.99, 95% CIs = ) and current F2015 was lower than FMSY (median = 0.81, 95% CIs = ) (SWO-ATL-Figure 8). Both models agreed that overfishing is not occurring and that biomass is either higher or very close to BMSY (SWO-ATL- Figure 9). The estimate of stock status in 2017 is slightly more pessimistic than the estimated status in the previous 2009 and 2013 assessments, and suggests that in 2015 there was a 61% probability that the stock is at or above MSY reference levels. The results obtained in this evaluation are not strictly comparable with those obtained in the last assessments due to the incorporation of more data sources, and using joint probabilities from two base case models, and updated catch and CPUE information. The most recent estimates of stock productivity are lower than the previous estimates. Compared with the previous 2009 and 2013 ASPIC base case models, the trajectory of biomass are similar until the late 1990s, thereafter the current model predicted considerable lower relative biomass (SWO-ATL-Figure 10). It is particularly noteworthy that the CPUE series have been decreasing since 2012, causing biomass trends to adjust to a lower minimum compared to the previous assessments. The Committee noted that the 2017 assessment represents a significant improvement in the understanding of current stock status for swordfish using updated information and integration of the new data sources. The Committee therefore recommends that management advice for swordfish, including stock status and projections, should be based on BSP2 and SS models. In 2017, evaluation of the status of the swordfish stock was assessed using two Bayesian biomass dynamics production models with process error (BSP2 and JABBA - Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment). Stock status and projections were determined from JABBA, while BSP2 was used mainly to provide several sensitivity analyses. The results from both models for the swordfish were consistent. The final base case BSP2 model estimated that current biomass (B2015) was lower than BMSY (median = 0.64, 95% CIs = ) and current F2015 was higher than FMSY (median = 1.15; 95% CIs = ) (SWO-ATL-Figure 11). The final base case JABBA model estimated that B2015 was also below BMSY (median = 0.72, 95% CIs = ) while F2015 was very close to FMSY (median = 0.98, 95% CIs = ) (SWO-ATL-Figure 12). Both models agreed that the southern swordfish stock biomass is overfished, and that overfishing is either occurring or current F is very close to FMSY. The Committee agreed that either one of the models (BSP2 or JABBA) could be used for management advice, but given that both are very similar in structure and use of information only one should be used. Given that JABBA is written in open-source software with more capabilities for future evolutions, the Committee agreed that the management advice, including stock status and projections, should be based on JABBA model (SWO-ATL-Figure 13). 151

4 ICCAT REPORT (II) The results obtained in this assessment are not comparable with those obtained in the last assessment (2013) due to the use of individual CPUEs compared to the use of a single CPUE combined across indices in the previous assessment. There was also an informative prior for K based on values from the in the 2013 assessment, but not in the current assessment. In 2013, the Committee noted that it was unknown whether it was possible to obtain higher yields from the stock as BSP2 suggested, or whether the stock was already fully exploited as ASPIC suggested. In 2017, with the possibility of incorporating individual CPUEs series and without the need to establish strong assumptions in productivity based in the stock, it was possible to provide specific quantitative advice for this stock. SWO-ATL-4. Outlook Results from the previous 2013 assessment indicated that there was a greater than 90% probability that the northern swordfish stock had rebuilt to or above BMSY. However, given the new estimates of biomass and lower productivity, the stock status now shows a 61% probability of being above BMSY. Based on the currently available information to the Committee, both the BSP2 and SS base models were projected to the year 2028 under constant TAC scenarios of 8 to 19 thousand tons. Projections used reported catch as of July, 2017 for For those CPCs whose reported catch was not available, their catch was assumed to be the average of the last three years ( ), giving a total catch of 11,296 t. For the final base case BSP2 model, projections incorporated process error and the predicted trajectories are therefore more realistic of the future uncertainty in the stock status. MSY is estimated to be around 13,400 t, and taking into account current stock status and process error catches around 13,000 t are expected to allow the population to remain at or above BMSY throughout the projected time period (SWO- ATL-Figure 14). For the final base case SS model, projections of stock status at various levels of future catch are shown in SWO-ATL-Figure 14. Given the current status of the stock being quite close to the MSY benchmarks, values of catches around 13,000 t are also projected to maintain biomass above BMSY during the projected time frame. Projections were conducted for the final base case JABBA model under constant TAC scenarios of 4 to 16 thousand tons. Projections used reported catch as of July 2017 for For those CPCs whose reported catch was not yet available, it was assumed that their catch was the average of the last three years ( ), giving a total catch of 10,002 t. Although the median MSY was around 14,600 t, the 2015 biomass depletion level at B/BMSY = 0.72 would require catches be reduced to a level at or below 14,000 tons to rebuild the population to biomass levels that can produce MSY by the end of the projection period in 2028 (SWO-ATL-Figure 15). SWO-ATL-5. Effect of current regulations In 2006, the Committee provided information on the effectiveness of existing minimum size regulations. New catch regulations were implemented on the basis of Rec , which entered into effect in 2007 (Rec extended the provisions of Rec to include 2009). Rec came into effect in 2010 and extended most of the provisions of Rec for one year only. Rec came into effect in 2011, and again extended those provisions for one year only, but with a slight reduction in total allowable catch (TAC). For the North and, the most recent recommendations can be found in Recs and Catch limits The total allowable catch in the during the 2007 to 2009 period was 14,000 t per year. The reported catch during that period averaged 11,811 t and did not exceed the TAC in any year. In 2010, the TAC was reduced to 13,700 t. The reported catch since then averaged 11,682 t and exceeded the TAC in one year (2012, 13,868 t). 152

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SWO-ATL The total allowable catch in the for the years 2007 through 2009 was 17,000 t. The reported catch during that period averaged 13,674 t, and did not exceed the TAC in any year. In 2010, the TAC was reduced to 15,000 t. The reported catch since then averaged 10,150 t and did not exceed the TAC in any year. Minimum size limits There are two minimum size options that are applied to the entire Atlantic: 125 cm LJFL with a 15% tolerance, or 119 cm LJFL with zero tolerance and evaluation of the discards. Since the implementation of the minimum landing sizes in 2000, the estimate of percentage of swordfish less than 125 cm LJFL reported landed (in number) has been generally decreasing in the and stable in the South. In the, the estimate was 33% in 2000 and decreased to 23% in In the the estimate was 18% in 2000, had a maximum of 19% in 2006 and decreased to 13% in The Committee notes that these estimations have high levels of substitutions for a significant portion of the total catch and are highly unreliable and biased unless CPCs fully report size samples from the entire catch. The Committee also noted high values of hooking mortality (ranging between 78-88%) on small swordfish (<125 cm LJFL) on some surface longline fisheries targeting swordfish, with the post-release mortality of specimens discarded alive unknown. Recommend and evaluating other strategies to protect juvenile swordfish will need completeness of datasets on fishing effort and size data over the entire Atlantic and should take into account the effects on other species. In view of the Commission objective to protect small swordfish, the Committee therefore recommends that future work should be carried out to determine more precisely the spatial distribution and magnitude of fishing effort, size and sex distribution of undersized swordfish in the Atlantic, using high resolution observer data. SWO-ATL-6. Management recommendations SWO-ATL-Tables 2, 3 and 4 show, respectively, the probabilities of maintaining the stock in the green quadrant of the Kobe plot, maintaining B>BMSY and maintaining F<FMSY, over a range of TAC options for swordfish over a period of 10 years. The current TAC of 13,700 t has a 36% probability of maintaining the swordfish stock in the green quadrant of the Kobe plot by 2028, whereas a TAC of 13,200 t would have a 50% probability, and would also result in the biomass being above BMSY with a probability greater than 50%, consistent with Rec (SWO-ATL-Table 3). The Committee also recognizes that the above advice does not account for removals associated with the actual mortality of unreported dead and live discards, quota carryovers (15% in the ), quota transfers across the North and South stock management boundaries nor the total cumulative quota, which includes that allocated to "other CPCs" and would fall above the TAC if achieved. The Committee emphasizes the importance of this uncertainty particularly given that the current estimated biomass is close to BMSY. SWO-ATL-Tables 5, 6 and 7 show, respectively, the probabilities of maintaining the stock in the green quadrant of the Kobe plot, maintaining B>BMSY and maintaining F<FMSY, over a range of TAC options for swordfish over a period of 10 years. The current TAC of 15,000 t has a 26% probability of rebuilding the swordfish stock to within MSY reference levels by 2028, whereas a TAC of 14,000 t would have a 50% probability of rebuilding the stock. The Committee also recognizes that the above advice does not account for removals associated with the actual mortality of unreported dead and live discards, quota carryovers (30% in the ) nor quota transfers across the North and South stock management boundaries. The Committee emphasizes the importance of this uncertainty particularly given that the current estimated biomass is lower than BMSY. 153

6 ICCAT REPORT (II) ATLANTIC SWORDFISH SUMMARY Maximum Sustainable Yield 13,059 (11,840-14,970) 1 14,570 (12,962-16,123) 2 Current (2016) TAC 13,700 t 15,000 t Current (2016) Yield 3 10,404 t 7,725 t Yield in last year used in assessment (2015) 4 10,668 t 10,227 t BMSY 82,640 t (51, ,010) 5 52,465 t (35,119-80,951) 2 SSBMSY 21,262 t (14,797-27,728) 6 Unknown FMSY 0.17 ( ) ( ) 2 Relative Biomass (B2015/BMSY) 1.04 ( ) ( ) 8 Relative Fishing Mortality (F2015/FMSY) 0.78 ( ) ( ) 8 Stock Status (2015) Overfished: NO Overfished: YES Overfishing: NO Overfishing: NO Management Measures in Effect Country-specific TACs [Recs , 06-02]; 125/119 cm LJFL minimum size Country-specific TACs [Rec ]; 125/119 cm LJFL minimum size 1 Average from base case BSP2 and SS models; range corresponding to the lowest and highest 95% CIs from the two models. 2 From base case JABBA model with 95% CIs. 3 Provisional and subject to revision. 4 Based on catch data available in July 2017 for the stock assessment session. 5 From base case BSP2 model, with 95% CIs. 6 From base case SS model, with 95% CIs. 7 Median and 95% quantiles from base case SS and BSP2 models. 8 Median and 95% quantiles from base case JABBA model. 154