Marine Recreational Information Program Transition to Improved Survey Designs

Transcription

1 Marine Recreational Information Program Transition to Improved Survey Designs David Gloeckner Southeast Fisheries Science Center Richard Cody Office of Science & Technology

2 Improved Survey Designs Fishing Effort Survey New mail survey of shore & private boat trips Replaces legacy telephone survey Uses USPS database and angler registries Higher, more accurate estimates of trips Access Point Angler Intercept Survey New design for sampling catch Better time-of-day coverage More statistically sound Shore Private Boats U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 2

3 Fishing Effort Survey We re reaching more anglers. Surveys get into the right hands. Much higher response rate. Improved questionnaire. More complete answers. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 3

4 Extensive Testing and Peer Review The [Fishing Effort Survey] methodologies, including the address-based sampling survey design, are major improvements. The current methods used in the APAIS are a vast improvement over the previous sampling and estimation procedures and reflect state of the art methods in survey sampling. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 4

5 FES Calibration Model Developed with consultants at Colorado State University. Fay-Herriot small area estimation model (mixed model). Accounts for various sources of variation (trend, seasonality, irregular, sampling error, and non-sampling method effects). Allows easy incorporation of covariates (e.g. wireless phone use). Contains simple ratio adjustments as limiting special cases. As formulated, calibration methodology follows a standard, wellestablished, relatively simple procedure (EBLUP). Yields optimal predictions = calibrated values, under assumptions of model. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 5

6 APAIS Calibration Model Developed with consultants at Colorado State University. Sample weight adjustment method. Raking, iterative proportional fitting. Standard practice in survey methodology. Provides single framework for calibrating all APAIS estimate components (e.g., catch rates by species and catch type). Address both calibration needs associated with APAIS design changes in 2013 as well as implementation of weighted estimation methods applied to years 2004 through present. Maintains utility of MRIP public-use (micro) datasets for custom estimation. Lack of benchmark data collection period. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 6

7 2018 Annual Catch Limits 2018 ACLs set using CHTS estimates FES CHTS Calibration model converts both directions Year-end estimates in same currency U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 7

8 Gulf of Mexico Private Boat Effort Total Number of Angler Fishing Trips 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 Telephone vs Mail Telephone vs Mail + Wireless Effect Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Effort Pre-calibration Effort U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 8

9 Gulf of Mexico Shore Effort Change Ratios Overall: : : : 3.82 Total Number of Angler Fishing Trips 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 Telephone vs Mail Telephone vs Mail + Wireless Effect 0 Calibrated Effort Pre-calibration Effort U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 9

10 Cobia Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 300, , ,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 10

11 Cobia Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 800, , , ,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Pre-calibration Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 11

12 Gag Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 12

13 Gag Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : 2.97 Pre-calibration Total Catch U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 13

14 Gray Snapper Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 14

15 Gray Snapper Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : 2.88 Pre-calibration Total Catch U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 15

16 Gray Triggerfish Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 16

17 Gray Triggerfish Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : 2.21 Pre-calibration Total Catch U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 17

18 Greater Amberjack Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 1,250,000 1,000, , , ,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 18

19 Greater Amberjack Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : 1.83 Pre-calibration Total Catch U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 19

20 Spanish Mackerel Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 20

21 Spanish Mackerel Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Pre-calibration Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 21

22 Red Snapper Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 22

23 Red Snapper Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 12,500,000 10,000,000 7,500,000 5,000,000 2,500,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Pre-calibration Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 23

24 State Surveys LA Creel MS Tails n Scales AL Snapper Check FL Gulf Reef Fish Survey U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 24

25 Florida Gulf Reef Fish Survey

26 Alabama Snapper-Check:private angler

27 Spotted Seatrout Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 27

28 Spotted Seatrout Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Pre-calibration Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 28

29 Red Drum Harvest Total Annual A+B1 Harvest in Numbers of Fish 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Change Ratios Overall: : : : Calibrated Harvest Pre-calibration Harvest U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 29

30 Red Drum Total Catch Total Annual Catch (A+B1+B2) in Numbers of Fish 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Calibrated Total Catch Pre-calibration Total Catch Change Ratios Overall: : : : U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 30

31 Impacts on Recreational Fishing Stock-by-Stock Assessment Stock Status Annual Catch Limits Allocation Decisions U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 31

32 Stock Assessment Schedule Species Region Type Timing Striped Bass Atlantic Coast Benchmark Fall 2018 Summer Flounder Mid-Atlantic Coast Benchmark Fall 2018 Black Sea Bass Mid-Atlantic Coast Operational Early 2019 Bluefish Atlantic Coast Operational Early 2019 Scup Atlantic Coast Operational Early 2019 Spot Atlantic Coast Operational Early 2019 Red Porgy Southern Atlantic Coast Full Update May 2019 Greater Amberjack Southern Atlantic Coast Full Update May 2019 Red Grouper Gulf of Mexico Full Update July 2019 Gray Triggerfish Gulf of Mexico Full Update Aug Atlantic Cod Gulf of Maine Operational Fall 2019 Yellowtail Snapper Southern Atlantic Coast/Gulf of Mexico Benchmark Nov Red Snapper South Atlantic Full Update 2020 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 32

33 What s Next 2018 Revised total catch estimates now available for use in planned stock assessments ACLs and catch estimates will be in the same currency Preliminary management changes may be made for reassessed stocks. Calibrated statistics incorporated into additional stock assessments Based on new stock assessments, management changes could occur for a number of species. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 33

34 Key Takeaways We see a substantial increase in effort, especially in the shore mode. Those stocks that have high proportion of catch from shore are more heavily impacted. The changes in effort are generally larger in more recent years, mostly driven by the wireless effect catch will be back-calibrated to ensure ACLs and catch are in the same currency. Stock assessments incorporating this new data will be used to determine stock status and ACLs. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 34

35 Questions?

36 State Surveys LA Creel MS Tails n Scales AL Snapper Check FL Gulf Reef Fish Survey U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 36

37 Private Boat Effort 100,000,000 90,000,000 Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico Total Number of Angler Fishing Trips 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 Before After Telephone vs Mail Telephone vs Mail + Wireless Effect 10,000, U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 37

38 Shore Effort Total Number of Angler Fishing Trips 140,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico Before After Telephone vs Mail Telephone vs Mail + Wireless Effect 20,000, U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 38

39 Estimating Total Recreational Catch Telephone/Mail Surveys Access Point Surveys U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 39

40 Assessing the Health of Fish Stocks Fishery Dependent Data Stock Assessments Fishery Independent Data U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 40

41 Regional Surveys, National Certification U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 41

42 Estimating Effort Fishing Effort Survey. Shore and private boat. For-Hire Survey. Charter, Party/Headboats. Large Pelagics Survey. Telephone survey. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 42

43 Estimating Catch Rate Access Point Angler Intercept Survey. Dockside Intercept. At-Sea Party/Headboat Sampling. Large Pelagics Survey. Dockside intercept. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 43

44 Transition Plan Improving designs can change estimates Transition Plan developed by NOAA, states, councils, and commissions. Benchmarking (mail vs. phone) Calibration (old vs. new) Convert old estimates into new currency Stock assessments Management decisions U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 44