californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2018

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1 californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Yesterday the inimitable Mike Stakes (Mike Smith s nom de plume) was at Keeneland hitting the board on Crown Walk in the $ First Lady Stakes, Grade I, in which Breeders Cup challenger A Raving Beauty won handily. Note: This is kool- Fresno Fair Grounds has a ten day or so meet each year, and they are in the midst of that, in case anyone is looking for additional California thoroughbred action. THE BREEDERS CUP- only four weeks away As you know, the Breeders Cup is an annual series of Grade I races featuring the best thoroughbred horses, both of the turf variety and those who race on the main track. It is operated by Breeders Cup Limited, a company formed in It is so popular that in 2007, it was expanded to a two-day event. Friday November 2, 2018 features the following Breeders Cup Races: Sentient Jet Juvenile, Juvenile Turf Sprint, Juvenile Turf, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Tito s Handmade Vodka Juvenile Fillies. Saturday November 3 features the following Breeders Cup Races: The Breeders Cup Classic, Longines Turf, Longines Distaff, Dirt Mile, Twinspires Sprint, Maker s Mark Filly & Mare Turf, Filly & Mare Sprint, Turf Sprint, Breeders Cup Mile. I count fourteen races, all of which will be run on the courses at Churchill Downs. Purses range from a minimum of $1 million up to $6 million for the Classic. Needless to say, we will be watching the best trainers, jockeys and equine athletes in the world, in serious action. I have been asked by many to handicap each day s racing as a Special Project. I will prepare my usual detailed analysis for each day, and prior to that I will

2 issue a free Breeders Cup Preview. (Naturally, I will be issuing my usual Santa Anita analyses that week as well- little sleep for the old man.) I will have two tiers of pricing for the Breeders Cup Analyses. Early pricing is $30 for both analyses for both days of racing. To pay $30, one would have to use his/her PayPal account, and pay at PayPal.me/SailorBoston, or mail a check to me. Early pricing is in effect up to October 21, close of business (5 p.m. EDT). After that, both days analysis will cost $40, or you can buy a single day s analysis for $20. Thanks for reading this Thursday s Results Well, seven of eight winners is not bad at all, except if I have to miss a race I wish it were not the fifth in an eight race card kinda messes up big horizontal hopes Corey Nakatani This is not good news for us turf race aficionados- attuned subscriber Mike M. reports that Mr. Nakatani is nowhere near mended, and that he may be contemplating retirement. Mr. Nakatani is 47 years old. I for one hope he mends better than ever, and that he keeps thrilling us with his turf race excellence. Note: The first post time today is 12:30 pm PDT, 3:30 pm EDT. Best wishes!

3 Horsecallany It is said by the horse whisperers that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. SPECIAL PROJECTS (reprised, new pricing) I just got a special project for Gulfstream for Sunday s race card. I have decided to reduce my price for any special project from $35 to $30. If any of you happens to be going to a track other than our home tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day s races at the foreign track, if you give me a few days notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The only problem is, since it will probably be a one-off analysis (i.e., you will almost certainly be the only buyer) I would have to charge you $30. Which works out to just about minimum wage for me since I will spend at least four-five hours handicapping and writing, more time proportionately if it is a twelve- race day like Gulfstream often has. Anyway I like to see how my expertise works in other locations, so I am willing to take this kind of thing occasionally on if my schedule allows. Obviously this applies equally if you are simply choosing to BET A FOREIGN TRACK ONLINE for some reason and want a second opinion. Thanks for reading this. The Anatomy of a Longshot- Soi Phet I was asked what made you select Soi Phet as a Likeable Longshot? As you know, that horse was my Likeable Longshot in the 9 th race on the 20th and he paid $ for a two dollar bet that Sunday. First, I have a good wagering history with him (he has earned me money). He was moving down precipitously out of graded competition. His string of workouts was impressive still for a ten year old horse. He closes out well. And, his average Beyer rating for races from 2017 to the present (I don t go too far back in the PP s, recent is most relevant as a horse can decline fast, like an NFL running

4 back) was terrific: 90. Frankly, looking at all of that, I don t know what the odds maker/computer was thinking: he was a serious overlay. Thank you odds maker!!! Sunday, October 7, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you.

5 Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty calendar-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 4, 5 6 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Note: Likeable Longshots are not available in this free version of californiawinning.com s analysis. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! *****please see below

6 RACE 4: Halo Darlin gets a notch of class relief, the mare is very steady speed-wise and does her best work at sprint distances. Operandi is by far the top 2018 earner in this crowd, so she must be doing something right, she knows almost nothing but the turf sprint, closes out well and carries our second best rider to boot. Will the real Classy Atlantic please stand up? This ML favorite won two of her first five turf races, both sprints, but the last two efforts produced two last place finishes, and I mean last place by a football field, maybe her top-tier jockey can get her back in the groove RACE 5: THE L.A. WOMAN, GRADE III, SIX AND ONE-HALF FURLONGS Rested Yuvetsi is the top 2018 earner, and one of two entries to have won a graded race (see Skye Diamonds), in fact she comes off that graded race win, a comfortable win at RD with this excellent rider aboard, her string of works is top-drawer so look out. Skye Diamonds has won a heady five of eight races at RD, two of them graded races, and she won a heady five of thirteen races here, she rarely missed the board and is a clear and present danger. Anonymity (Michael Rona won t mispronounce her name) is the prohibitive ML favorite, because she has easily won three of five dirt sprints and placed in the other two, she is not as prolific however at RD, and Yuvetsi beat her at RD by over two lengths last time out. RACE 6: Gemini Journey is very steady speed-wise in the shorter races, doesn t miss the board, and has an excellent trainer, she looms large in this rather bland field. Todos Santos receives class relief, does her best work in the dirt sprint, will be a factor. Lucky Student, restless like Kristi s Heart, at least appears somewhat accustomed to rather short rest (and doesn t work out), this ML favorite moves down, has won a heady five of sixteen races at RD, has

7 shown early unchallenged speed, the mark of a mare who knows she is supposed to beat the pack to the wire, and carries a HOF rider. Likeable Longshot: (There is one for this race, and there are several likeable longshots today, but these are not available in the free selections you can view those and the rest of today s free analysis by following the directions below to pay $5 for Today s Full Race Card OR $20 for a 30 day subscription ) ***** NOTE: IF THIS IS YOUR FIRST SUCH REQUEST, YOU CAN ME AT fryer08057@yahoo.com, WITH THE CODE HORSIES AND I WILL SEND YOU TODAY S FULL ANALYSIS FREE OF CHARGE THANK YOU See instructions below on how to buy today s card, or to subscribe for a mere $20 for thirty days of race analysis ***** californiawinning.com All rights reserved You can buy today s full analysis for $5, or, Why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they do not provide a graded handicap and far less than the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, for Today s Full Race card for the mere sum of $5, or, better yet, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR, if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.

8 Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?