Globeform Previews BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

Transcription

1 Globeform Previews BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY November 3, 2018 BY GEIR STABELL SAMPLE RACES GLOBEFORM ANALYSES & RATINGS CHURCHILL DOWNS - 3 NOVEMBER 2018 ABOUT GLOBEFORM RATING CODES Good to know! What is the difference between rank figures with p and +? Notice these differences in the rank columns for some runners. A p being used next to the rating denotes that the horse produced a new career best and was given a plus, indicating that improvement could be expected. When + is being used it tells us that better form than this can be expected next time out, but that the rating the horse ran to on this day was not a new career best (it was either equal to his previous best or below his previous best form). All material Copyright (c) Geir W Stabell / globeform.com

2 Saturday FREE SAMPLE RACES Filly & Mare Sprint contender Selcourt winning the the Santa Monica at Santa Anita. Benoit Photo

3 Saturday R3 GLOBEFORM RATINGS 12:00pm BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT (G1), 7 fur dirt, Churchill Downs Horses ranked in pounds (0.45kg). 1 length = 2.5 pounds over this distance Rank Horse Globeform GF past 3 runs Trainer / Jockey 0 MARLEY'S FREEDOM Baffert / Smith 2 SELCOURT 122?p 109p 122 Sadler / Baze 4 FINLEY'SLUCKYCHARM Calhoun / Hernandez 6 MISS SUNSET Bonde / Desormeaux 7 SKYE DIAMONDS ** 117 / Spawr / Pereira 8 HIGHWAY STAR Ubillo / J Ortiz 8 SHAMROCK ROSE 3 * 114?p 112p 114 M Casse / I Orttiz Jr 9 STORMY EMBRACE 115?p 115? O'Connell / Gaffalione 9 MIA MISCHIEF 3 * Asmussen / Santana Jr 10 GOLDEN MISCHIEF 114?p?p 114 Cox / Geroux 11 CHALON ?+ 113 Delacour / Castellano 13 HAPPY LIKE A FOOL 3 * Ward / Saez 14 ANONYMITY R Mandella / Prat 15 KIRBY'S PENNY Ward / Velazquez RESERVE 11 DREAM PAULINE 3 * 111p 103p 111p McLaughlin / Rosario ** Skye Diamonds: GF 117 twice in 2017 / GF 114 at her best yo horses will carry 2lbs less than older horses * Globeform Weight-for-age 3-year-olds vs. older horses: USA 0lbs / Europe 0lbs 2017: BAR OF GOLD GF 117 John Kimmel / Irad Ortiz Jr

4 Saturday Nov 3, 2018 GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT MARLEY'S FREEDOM is the one with the best recent form, having won three valuable sprints, over different tracks, in three starts since she joined Baffert from the Hess Barn. She beat Miss Sunset by 7 ½ lengths in the Desert Stormer over 6 furlongs at Santa Anita in May, had Skye Diamonds comfortably behind when taking the 6.5-furlong Great Lady M Stakes by 1 ½ lengths at Los Alamitos in July, and moved up a notch again when beating Still There by 3 ¼ lengths in the Ballerina Stakes over 7 furlongs at Saratoga in August. Marley's Freedom is a strong daughter of BC Classic winner Blame. She has good tactical speed but does well when rating just off the pace, and she stays 7 furlongs really well. SELCOURT is also proven over the F&M Sprint distance, having produced her best form to date when beating Marley's Freedom by 4 ½ lengths in the Santa Monica at Santa Anita back in March. Skye Diamonds finished third, in what was a very good race. Selcourt was even giving 2lbs to Marley's Freedom but Marley's Freedom has improved a lot since that meeting. Still, if Selcourt comes to the Breeders' Cup in good shape, well, then it would be foolish to dismiss her chances. She represents trainer John Sadler, who is having an excellent season, and thus comes from the same barn as BC Classic favorite Accelerate and BC Dirt Mile favorite Catalina Cruiser. Drawn in stall one, Selcourt is almost certain to be sent straight to the lead. FINLEY'SLUCKYCHARM, a course specialist with 6 wins from 7 runs at Churchill Downs, is also in with good chance of course. She will probably have to raise her game yet again to beat the best of the two Californians on the day, but we will need to upgrade her if the tracks comes up wet. Whereas Marley's Freedom and Selcourt have both yet to run over a wet track, Finley'sluckycharm is 2-for-4 under such conditions. MISS SUNSET (capable of GF 118 but below that level in her most recent starts) and SKYE DIAMONDS (produced GF 117 twice in 2017 and seemingly on her way back to form) are the next two to include in trifecta plans and it's hard to see any of the others hitting the board. DREAM PAULINE is a horse to include in the trifecta / superfecta plans if she gets into the field (she needs one defection). This well bred 3yo trained by Kiaran McLauglin has two wins from two runs, she managed Globeform 111p when winning a 6-furlong allowance heat at Saratoga in August a high ratings for such an inexperienced runner and, as May foal, she is a probable improver. GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS A: 13 MARLEY'S FREEDOM B: 11 FINLEY'SLUCKYCHARM, 1 SELCOURT D: 2 MISS SUNSET, 7 SKYE DIAMONDS WEIGHTS IN BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT RACES Note that the three-year-olds get a 2lbs weight pull against older horses in sprint races at the Breeders' Cup. Globeform research over the years have shown that, when we get to late October and onwards, there should be no wfa allowance for North American 3yo sprinters, and just a 1lb allowance for European 3yo sprinters.

5 Saturday Nov 3, 2018 R9 GLOBEFORM RATINGS 4:16pm BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF (G1), 9 fur dirt, Churchill Downs Horses ranked in pounds (0.45kg). 1 length = 2 pounds over this distance Rank Horse Globeform GF past 3 runs Trainer / Jockey 0 ABEL TASMAN Baffert / Smith 1 MONOMOY GIRL p Cox / Geroux 2 MIDNIGHT BISOU Asmussen / Velazquez 6 VALE DORI ? 115 Baffert / Talamo 8 WONDER GADOT 3 116? M Casse / I Ortiz Jr 10 LA FORCE Gallagher / Van Dyke 11 WOW CAT 113p 111p p C Brown / J Ortiz 11 BLUE PRIZE Correas / Bravo 13 CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS 111? Wilkes / Borel 13 MOPOTISM O'Neill / Gutierrez 16 VERVE'S TALE Tagg / Hernandez Jr 3yo horses will carry 4lbs less than older horses Globeform Weight-for-age 3-year-olds vs. older horses: USA 4lbs 2017: FOREVER UNBRIDLED - GF 122 Dallas Stewart / John Velazquez Abel Tasman's trainer Bob Baffert. Photo G W Stabell

6 GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF Saturday Nov 3, 2018 ABEL TASMAN is coming off the most disappointing performance of her career, as she ran no sort of a race in the Zenyatta at Santa Anita in September. She broke slowly, was soon detached, never ran a yard, and was given an easy time by jockey Mike Smith as he realized something was amiss. At first it seemed that she had lost interest but Abel Tasman was found to be fighting a virus something Baffert's barn was plagued with at the time and we should probably just forget the Zenyatta run. Pretend she was a scratch. Abel Tasman has come back working with great zest since, and she looks the one to beat at Churchill Downs. Like Monomoy Girl, she is a Kentucky Oaks winner, so we know Churchill suits her, and she has improved this term. She produced high class form when running away with the Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park and when outbattling Elate (who is sorely missed) in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga. A repetition of that level of form would make Abel Tasman hard to beat. She is the best horse in the field, she has plenty of stamina, she acts on a fast track but would not be bothered if the track comes up wet (as it did when she won the Kentucky Oaks) and she is the selection. This race represents new challenges to the two classy three-year-olds, Brad Cox's Monomoy Girl, who won the Kentucky Oaks over course and distance in May, and Steve Asmussen's Midnight Bisou, who needed sympathy in the Stewards' room to finally get the better of Monomoy Girl when being awarded the race in the Cotillion Stakes at Parx in September. She went down by a neck but Monomoy Girl was found to have caused interference and the placings were reversed. They both produced career best form that day but they also both had a hard race. How will it have affected them? MONOMOY GIRL, who began her 3yo campaign as early as in February, has been an absolute success story, winning four Grade Ones on the trot before that unfortunate day at Parx; taking the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, the Kentucky Oaks, Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park and the CCA Oaks at Saratoga. She won the Acorn and the 'CCA' with incredible ease but every race takes something out of a horse, and one must wonder how long she can maintain her form. She will probably go off favorite in the Distaff understandably so and perhaps she will win again, but most likely she will be terrible value. MIDNIGHT BISOU has also had a tough campaign and is very much in the same boat. Having kicked off with a win in the Santa Ynez in early January, when she was with Bill Spawr, she been at the races eight times in 2018 (twice more than Monomoy Girl) - winning the Santa Anita Oaks, running third in the Kentucky Oaks, winning the Mother Goose (against sub-standard rivals), running second in the 'CCA', running third in the Alabama (when well below par), then winning the Cotillion on a DQ. Her run at Parx showed that she is close to Monomoy Girl and it will be interesting to see them clash again. It's hard to see the winner of this year's Distaff not coming from this trio. VALE DORI took full advantage to win from LA FORCE when Abel Tasman flopped in the Zenyatta, but neither is up to matching strides with the top three here, WONDER GADOT ran her best race to date when runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks but has run like a filly affected by a long season on her two most recent starts, BLUE PRIZE is in top form though simply not good enough here, while WOW CAT is also coming off a career best and is perhaps capable of better she needs to improve markedly again to hit the board but might be the best choice if you want to throw a fourth number into your trifecta.