SEE ANALYSIS FOR GULFSTREAM RACES 2, 3 HEREINBELOW. One more week of this chaff- then we go home to Santa Anita!

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1 californiawinning.com GULFSTREAM PARK, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2018 SEE ANALYSIS FOR GULFSTREAM RACES 2, 3 HEREINBELOW Message Board to My Subscribers One more week of this chaff- then we go home to Santa Anita! By the way even though many of you said you did receive last Sunday s selections, I am giving all an extra day since I could not confirm my own transmission, sent by Android due to laptop crash. POST TIME: 2PM EDT, 11 AM PDT Note- for the many newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in the free version of californiawinning.com s selections. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated.

2 You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots- -- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! Keep in mind that a Likeable Longshot is more likely to come in last than first: but he/she could also win or place if he/she is on and performs at his/her best. SPECIAL PROJECTS-REVISED PRICING As you recall, I am available to handicap a track of your choosing, other than our three principal tracks, for a race day. I need three days prior notice, please. The good news is that I am reducing my price for such, to remain most competitive, to a mere $15. Remember you can easily pay for any Special Project, a mere $15. To pay $15, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston. You will have to have a PayPal account, or you can create one. PayPal is an excellent funds transfer company, totally safe, and every red-blooded American should have a PayPal account. Note: The first post time today is 9:45 a.m. PDT, 12:45 pm EDT. ***** RACE 2: Five of six entries won their most recent race, all at or near RD Rested Bargainaire won comfortably last time out at RD less 330 feet, the has the penultimate Gulfstream jockey in the irons, and looms large. Always Venezuela won at RD last time out with this excellent jockey aboard, the filly also has a topnotch trainer to aid her development. Jersey Rose won comfortably at Rd last time out, here, she has talented connections and could surprise. RACE 3:

3 Well, inimitable Paco Lopez is aboard the best horse in this one: Igo Forgreatness has spent over 80% of his racing career at RD, and RD is the only turf racing in his c.v., and he has hit the board about 75% of the time at that distance, he even sports some decent turf workouts, something we rarely see back West, albeit short ones. More Mia wins 20% of his races here, and over 25% of his races at RD, he won a ton of money last year on the grass at RD, why he wasted time on the main track recently is beyond me. Texas Rustler has hit the board in ten of his last twelve races, all at RD, the nine year old veteran still has it. Likeable Longshot: (There are several, but these are not available in the free version of this analysis. To view this Likeable Longshot and others, see below as to how to purchase today s card for a mere $5, less than you pay for your DRF or Racing Digest.) ***** To see the entire analysis of today s card---including the all-important Likeable Longshots --- go to Today s Full Race Card at californiawinning.com and click the $5 button, and use your debit or credit card, or your PayPal account to pay $5, or, if you have a PayPal account, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment there (it s easier) OR BETTER YET--- Better yet, why not subscribe now, it s about 65 cents per day far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they don t give you a graded handicap, and its less than what the touts charged for their little blue card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, to subscribe for 35 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay a mere $20 through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Or to save money, you can subscribe for six months for $100, or for one year for $200 (30% discount). Thanks very much.

4 californiawinning.com (all rights reserved) SOME HANDICAPPING TIPS Angles: Weight Allowance; Rest I have convinced myself, if not you ladies and gents, that weight allowance, that afforded an apprentice, is a significant angle to examine when handicapping a thoroughbred race. My case in point: one Evin Roman. A you know, he is no longer an apprentice, of course, and he is a fine jockey in his own right. Not top-echelon, mind you, but certainly high-average. His current win percentage is.12. He does not seem to be engaged by the toptier trainers any longer. I saw him a year or so ago in a few stakes races as an apprentice, but not lately. He is still very good, but not what he was as an apprentice. I recall that while he was an apprentice, his win percentage was.18 for a while, and it may have even hit.19. Those win percentages were achieved while he was allowed seven-pounds/five-poounds. So for the sake of argument we will say his win percentage towards the end of his apprenticeship was.18. It is now.12. This is a substantial decline: by a whopping 33%! There are only two possible reasons for this: (i) he is not getting the good mounts, and/or (ii) the weight allowance afforded him a huge advantage in a race, as it is like getting a head start. Now of course the decline could be as a result of a combination of both factors, and that is why I said and/or. Even now, however, we see how successful Asa Espinoza (.14) and Edgar Payeras (.17) are as apprentices with huge weight allowances, namely, five pounds, and also H Figueroa (.17), seven pounds. It will be fascinating to watch the projected decline in their respective win percentages at the end of their

5 apprenticeships/weight allowances. If my theory is correct, there will be a significant declination in all. As you know another angle I am currently developing is rest ( beware the restless horse ) or lack thereof. The principle simply stated is this: if a horse is racing on less than 28 days rest, it will be more difficult for him/her to win the race. Could he/she still win? Sure. A few horses seem almost unaffected by short rest, some are used to it and apparently thrive on it. But they are in the minority. My theory is that a race takes so much out of the horse, what with the fact of competition, whip being applied, etc., that unless they have four weeks rest they will not perform optimally. A restless horse may still challenge, and they may hit the board, but my theory is that it is that much harder for the restless horse to win the race. Neither of these angles is intended as a be all-end all. They are important factors to consider, to be sure, but to truly handicap a race we have to consider not one or two or even three of route angles: we need to look at everything.