PRACTICAL JOKE STATE OF HONOR TAPWRIT THUNDER SNOW UNTRAPPED ANALYSIS SELECTIONS

Transcription

1 IRON MAIDENS THOROUGHBREDS

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ALWAYS DREAMING BATTALION RUNNER BATTLE OF MIDWAY CLASSIC EMPIRE CLOUD COMPUTING FAST AND ACCURATE GIRVIN GORMLEY GUNNEVERA HENCE IRAP IRISH WAR CRY J BOYS ECHO LOOKIN AT LEE MALAGACY McCRAKEN PATCH PRACTICAL JOKE STATE OF HONOR TAPWRIT THUNDER SNOW UNTRAPPED ANALYSIS SELECTIONS

3 Introduction Notes on the Pedigree Profiles: Pedigree analysis is a main component to figuring out which contestants to keep on your Derby list. It is essential to distinguish between the horses who will love ten furlongs, those who could finish in the money and the ones that couldn t get the distance with a guided missile strapped around their girth. Just because a horse ekes out a win at nine furlongs doesn t mean he has enough gas in the tank to keep up a full out run for an additional furlong. It is generally accepted that a horse s damsire and female family impart stamina and class. This is the most important aspect in determining if your Derby hopeful can handle the distance. In the last twelve out of sixteen years, all Kentucky Derby winners sires or damsires daughters had previously produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles in the U.S. In eight of twelve instances, the Kentucky Derby champ was a dual qualifier, that is, both the sire and damsire had previously produced at least one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Funny Cide, California Chrome and American Pharoah are the only Kentucky Derby winners in the last fourteen years whose damsires hadn't produced a stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles. Pedigree knowledge also aides in detecting each horse s optional surface. On a muddy track, anything can happen. Top contenders are downgraded because they don t like getting their hooves muddy, while other horses improve vastly in the slop. Two such examples are the 2009 and 2010 Kentucky Derby winners Mine That Bird and Super Saver. Both had superior mud pedigrees and splashed their way to the best races of their careers. At the other end of the spectrum, certain contestants have never competed in a race over the main track. Evaluating these contenders is a little trickier Derby victor Animal Kingdom made his first start over dirt in the Derby. He was an anomaly, a good horse that can run over anything, proving that rules and statistics don t always apply to flesh and blood. In 2013, I added an additional analysis, which is the large heart or X-Factor gene. Researching back to 1970, 24 winners likely carried the large heart gene. Following are the years that, according to their pedigree charts, horses with the X- Factor won the Kentucky Derby: yes no yes no 1984 yes no 1987 yes no 1990 yes no yes no yes no 2008 yes no yes no yes Note that there are no more than three years between winners who may carry the X-Factor gene. With the above patterns in mind, let s assess this year s Kentucky Derby buzz horses by pedigree, surface and overall score.

4 ALWAYS DREAMING Sire Dam Damsire DOB Bodemeister Above Perfection In Excess 2/25/14 Lifetime Statistics: Record Earnings Dirt Mud Turf Synthetic $648, Racing Highlights: Fin. Race Grade Dist. Surface 1 Florida Derby 1 9F Dirt Distance A 9-9.5F B 10 F Surface A Dirt B Mud Ratings: Best SF SW at 10F X-Factor Beyer Bris 0 1 Sire Damsire Yes C 12 F 121 TimeForm Analysis: Pedigree: Always Dreaming has a stamina over speed pedigree. Young sire Bodemeister was retired before he could prove himself at 10F. offspring are expected to be later maturing and improve with racing and distance, so a classic winner wouldn t be an unrealistic expectation from his first few crops. Always Dreaming is the 10th foal out of his dam. His half sister Hot Dixie Chick and their dam are stakes winning sprinters. Always Dreaming's pedigree is borderline for 10F. He appears to carry the large-heart gene, which will help him with distance issues. Pedigree Rating: B Surface: Always Dreaming is a winner over fast dirt. He hasn't tried an off track. One of two half siblings won in the mud and his dam won her lone start over an off track. Sire Bodemeister has 10% winners from starters over the off going. Surface Rating: Dirt: A Mud: B Expectations: Always Dreaming had two preps at 1 1/8 miles, so fitness for the Derby won't be an issue. His final Florida Derby time eclipsed the 1:47.72 set by Quality Road in 2009 over the reconfigured track, and the colt got his last 1/8 mile in 12.53, the second fastest final split of the KY Derby field. The colt has the build of a distance horse and he has a long, ground-eating stride. Always Dreaming appears athletic enough that if he has to steady in traffic, He can pick it back up without losing too much ground. Always Dreaming has shown in previous starts that he can be placed anywhere in the race and still make his run. Trainer Todd Pletcher has a record in the KY Derby. Always Dreaming likes to press the pace and has a high cruising speed. He will likely go to post as the favorite. Overall Score: A Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds - Copyright All Rights Reserved

5 2017 KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS RACE ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS WILL BE FINALIZED AFTER POST POSTION DRAW. PLEASE NOTE THAT INDIVIDUAL HORSE RATINGS MAY CHANGE