THE GREEN SHEET Full-Card Analysis and Selections John M. Gaver III

Transcription

1 THE GREEN SHEET Full-Card Analysis and Selections John M. Gaver III Churchill Downs: Spring Meet 2017 Second Day: Tuesday, May 2 Post Time: 12:40 P.M. Eastern Churchill Meet Stats To Date: % winners; 64% in the money Final Keeneland Spring Meet Statistics: % winners; 61% in the money Note: Selections are made in order, first through fourth RACE ONE The chestnut BOLD SHOT is turning back off some marathon heats in Hot Springs to a distance at which he has fifty percent of his lifetime wins, and he ran well when last seen on dirt at this mile and a sixteenth trip facing open $15K types, albeit at Sam Houston. His best recent form has been on minor circuits, but he did face a next-out winner in the aforementioned race, has been first-or-second in in fifty percent of his lifetime starts under the Twin Spires and drops out of starter allowance company at Oaklawn. This is a weak race; choice. GOLD HAWK s best form has been without blinkers, and trainer Steve Asmussen removes the hood in this spot and drops this bay son of Empire Maker out of starter allowance company. He s another who has been more effective at Sam Houston and Remington Park in the past, but he ran decently two starts back when claimed considering he caught wet-fast, sealed track that he probably didn t really care for and he ll make only his second start for the Asmussen barn on the drop in this spot. He gets in light with the bug boy Rayan Gazader named to ride and should be the recipient of a nice, ground-saving, stalking trip; threat. KATE N ABS REWARD is the likely pacesetter in a small field without a lot of front-running types signed on always a good betting angle but he s better when allowed to settle and fire and four of his six lifetime wins have been over a synthetic surface. His 2-for-19 lifetime record on fast main tracks isn t encouraging, nor is his lackluster lifetime record in Louisville. 1

2 He does drop down in class however, and has annexed three of his past four starts when offered for a tag, a $5K tag versus conditioned claiming rivals; tab for a minor award. HELLO PEOPLE is another whose best form has been on Polytrack, and he woke up when dropping in class for the Mike Ford barn, an outfit that has made the most of limited opportunities in Jack Gilligan, who booted him home from off the pace, is back for a return engagement; on the fringes. SELECTIONS: RACE TWO The second on Tuesday s card is an interesting race in that some of the top contenders are entered for the main track only, and with no rain in the Louisville forecast on May 2 nd, this heat figures to stay on the turf. That said, even-money morning line favorite BE PLAYFUL looks like the standout on paper, although she does have a propensity to run second. Chestnut mare has yet to run a poor race on the grass facing tougher rivals since she was haltered for a $40K price tag by trainer Mike Maker six starts back, and she was only a length off the win in the $125,000 Claiming Crown Tiara five starts back. She s minor stakes-placed on turf and has been first-or-second in nine-of-10 starts lifetime at this mile and a sixteenth trip on the weeds, but she has been the beaten favorite three of her past four starts and will try to shake a bout of seconditis this afternoon; due to get her picture taken again. ZETA ZODY beat the top choice on the square three starts back facing similar company, when the Oklahoma-bred was claimed from Mike Maker for $40,000 in New Orleans. She was ambitiously spotted off the claim in the $75K Blushing K.D. Stakes buy her new connections, however she was a non-factor when offered up for a $40K price tag in her most recent start at Fair Grounds. On the positive side, she ll get a ground-saving trip from her inside post draw, has finished first-or-second in 11-of-18 turf starts lifetime and she likes the Matt Winn course; threat. REIMBURSE is a bay Artie Shiller filly on the drop for trainer Mark Casse, and she figured to need her last start off a three-month layoff, where she failed to beat a horse facing tougher adversaries in New Orleans. She was taking her first crack at two other than allowance company last out, and she stretches out to a distance at which she s finished in the money in five of her nine past turf appearances in this heat; contender. MARYBLUEEYES takes a marked step up in class, but she figures to be all alone on a clear early lead in a race that has a dearth of front-running types. She ll be a juicy price on the tote board, gets a positive rider switch to Joe Rocco, Jr. and has managed to post a fourthplace effort in the past over this turf course facing $50,000 starter allowance foes last summer; hangs on for a minor award with a top try. SELECTIONS:

3 RACE THREE The well-bred filly ANNATHELA (she s by Elusive Quality out of a Storm Cat mare) looks like a solid play in the sixth, an entry-level allowance race at a six-furlong trip on the main track. Consistent four-year-old filly has finished in the money in six-of-nine lifetime starts, her form has improved with blinkers and she will be tighter making her second start off a near two-month layoff in this spot. If you throw out her effort in the $50,000 Minaret Stakes at Tampa, her form looks double-tough, and she has never missed the exacta from three prior starts under the Twin Spires. She should get a good trip stalking the pace; rates top billing. FIVE STAR FACTOR has been the beaten chalk in her past two starts, but she would have won her last race at Keeneland if she had not drifted about once she made the lead then was subsequently bumped around, costing her a head decision on the wire. Bay daughter of The Factor will appreciate turning back slightly, she s minor stakes-placed at this six-furlong trip on dirt and she broke her maiden at Churchill by open lengths last fall; contender. IVY BELL went to the sidelines with positive form last November, however she hasn t ben seen at the races in six months. Archarcharch filly has finished in the money in five-of-seven dirt starts lifetime, and she has an affinity for the local surroundings having never crossed the finish line worse than second in Louisville. She sports a gap-free public work tab during her time away from the races and has won off a layoff in the past; threat. LADY CONSTANCE s form has been suspect against winners, and she hasn t had her picture taken in over a year, however she s is at her best sprinting sixfurlongs on dirt and should get a decent trip stalking the pace; more interested as the price increases. SELECTIONS: RACE FOUR The bay filly BOTTLE WALK looks like an astute claim for trainer Angel Montano, as his outfit seems to have haltered a live horse on the drop out of her last race at Keeneland for $20,000, a heat she won by 12 and a half lengths. Bay Tale of the Cat filly steps up to open $50,000 starter allowance company but catches a soft, compact field, and she has been competitive against allowance company of late in New Orleans. She was a good second facing open $40K types at this seven-eighths trip at Keeneland last fall, and she likes Churchill Downs, seven panels on dirt and has a license to move forward in her second start off an extended layoff; choice. JOKASA stalked a swift pace and reeled-in her rival in her most recent start in Lexington off a near two-month layoff when returning to the dirt, and the chestnut daughter of City Zip will be tighter this goaround for trainer Greg Foley making the second start of her current form cycle. She s finished in the money in a solid three-of-four fast main track starts lifetime but likes minor awards, having finished third in eight of her 17 lifetime starts; contends nonetheless. DOLL FACE broke her maiden for 3

4 fun the first time she tried dirt facing maiden $30K claiming types in Lexington, covering six furlongs in a swift 1:10 4/5 in the process. Chestnut filly will hook winners for the first time in this spot, however, although this isn t the toughest $50K starter allowance race ever carded at Churchill Downs. Lightly-raced filly has plenty of upside and a license to move forward in her second start off a layoff. The only concern is the quick wheel-back (20 days) off a career-best effort; likely for part, taking a stand against for top honors. SEEKING BULL aired by six lengths and change the first time she caught a fast main track in her most recent start at Fair Grounds facing softer competition, and she steps up in class and turns back an eighth of a mile in this spot. If you throw out her race on the grass, which she didn t care for, and the effort in the $145K Silverbulletday Stakes, in which she was outclassed, her form looks better. Her recent bullet half-mile move at the Churchill Downs Training Center is a sharp :47 3/5; threat. SELECTIONS: RACE FIVE SUMMER O FIFTY FOUR is about a length shy off winning his past two starts against maiden claiming company, and he was beaten a scant head in his last start at Keeneland despite having to steady on the clubhouse turn against maiden $50K types. I like that he dips in class slightly, is eligible for improvement in his third start off the shelf and has an excuse in his only poor prior effort, as he broke in at the start and was forced to swing wide two starts back in Hallandale Beach. The turn-back to this oneturn mile trip is positive; major player. PITCH COUNT drops in for a tag for the first time this year, and he ran well for a $30K tag the last time he was seen under the Twin Spires at this one-turn mile trip. He has never missed the trifecta in Louisville and has produced money finishes the past two times Corey Lanerie has been in the boot; contender. HIS ROYAL MAJESTY finished fourth of nine, beaten 10 lengths and change for all the money in his career debut on turf at Fair Grounds, and he figures to improve on that effort in this spot for trainer Tom Amoss, who drops this guy in for a $40K tag in this affair. The gray will try the dirt a surface he s bred top and bottom to relish for the first time in this affair, and I like the turn-back to this eight-furlong, one-turn trip; improvement expected. LONG ON LUCK hooked a next-out winner in his career debut in New Orleans for a $50K tag, where he saved ground to no avail and trailed throughout. He ll wear blinkers for the first time in this spot, and has a license to improve in only his second career start; useful when spreading in exotic wagers. SELECTIONS:

5 RACE SIX I ll take a shot with the first-time dirt starter WICKED WINK, a well-bred son of Distorted Humor that is bred to handle the surface change for trainer Steve Margolis, whose outfit is winning at a high-percentage in Bay colt take a drastic class drop in this spot in for a $16K tag against non-winners of two lifetime foes, and he has an excuse in his last start, where he was bumped at the break. He has been banging around the entry-level allowance ranks and hooked a next-out winner in his last start for a tag facing $30,000 conditioned claiming types in New Orleans; turf-todirt angle looks live. HELLOFAGUY returns to the races off a two-month layoff on the drop for trainer Wayne Catalano, who puts blinkers back on his charge after a lackluster effort in his last race. He broke his maiden for a $30K tag at Churchill last fall by open lengths and has never been in this cheap Well-bred Arch gelding out of a Storm Cat mare will appreciate turning back to a sprint this afternoon; contender. BLUEGRASS FIELDS may have needed his last start off a short freshening, and he takes a noticeable drop in class in this heat for the high-percentage Brad Cox outfit. He ll have to contend with some other front running types (GRAY RANSOM and CATAROUX), however he was game when he was last engaged on the front-end two starts back in Hot Springs, where he set a pressured pace, reeling off quick splits of :22 2/5 and :46 4/5, and won off by four lengths and change. He figures to improve in his second start off the shelf and is sitting on a :47 flat bullet half-mile move at Indiana Downs 10 days ago; lots to like. THE LAST PROPHET likes Churchill Downs, having finished in the money in three-of-four lifetime starts under the Twin Spires for the Thomas Humphries barn, whose outfit has led over six winners from 14 starters thus far in I m willing to forgive his last effort at Keeneland, where he came in at the start under an apprentice rider, and he faced a next-out winner in that affair. He ll appreciate turning back a furlong, and he broke his maiden by open lengths for a $30K tag Turfway under jockey Cory Orm. He can handle the main track but remains a minor award candidate. SELECTIONS: RACE SEVEN The bay filly GALILEA was only a length and a half off the win in last summer s Pucker Up Stakes (G3T) at Arlington Park, and while her recent form since has been sketchy, she takes an eye-catching drop in class in this spot for trainer Grant Forster. Cape Blanco (Ire) filly has won her past two races outside of a other than allowance and graded stakes company, and she has a license to improve in her third start off the sidelines. She annexed a $50K starter allowance event on the Matt Winn course the last time she appeared in Louisville; rates top billing. MISS MAMACITA has retained honest form while moving up in class, and she won a money since allowance race on the dirt at Hawthorne five starts back and is in 5

6 against conditioned $30K claiming foes in this affair. She broke her maiden on grass and has finished in the money in 50 percent of her turf starts lifetime, so the surface change is not a concern, and the closer should relish the stretch-out to this mile and a sixteenth trip; contender. SHIFTY KITTEN rallied from off the pace in her last start off a layoff for trainer Mike Maker, whose barn sent out the turf winner Mambo At The Gym ($14.80) on Saturday night s program. Late-running daughter of Kitten s Joy is consistently inconsistent, but she won her only prior start over the local course and comes into this race fresh; threat. SCATMEIFUCAN gets an unfortunate wide post draw but is the controlling speed on paper in a race devoid of front-running types, and she will prefer returning to her preferred surface turf in this heat. She couldn t clear this three lifetime condition three starts back at Fair Grounds for a $15K tag at 3-1, but she was bumped at the break in that race and was competitive in the penultimate outing at this class level. She will likely be sent from her wide post draw and may get brave if left alone on the frontend; cannot eliminate with confidence. SELECTIONS: RACE EIGHT THEOPHILIA looks like a solid play at 4-1 on the morning line for trainer Billy Mott, whose outfit won the William Walker Stakes on opening night with The Money Monster ($17). Bay daughter of Flatter has effective tactical speed, and if one takes into consideration she has had trouble at the start in two of her past three starts, and you throw out the effort in the $100K Shine Again Stakes at Saratoga, her form looks especially salty. She will appreciate stretching out a sixteenth of a mile, returning to the main track and will be tighter in her second start off the shelf; major player. CROOKED STICK is a mud lark whose most impressive efforts to date have been over sloppy, sealed racetracks, however she does own a win over a fast dirt strip in the past and will be making her first start for trainer Brian Lynch, whose barn is coming off a strong Keeneland meet. She hasn t been seen at the races in a tick over five months, but she didn t run badly in her last start off an extended layoff considering she was bumped at the start and was beaten less than four lengths for all the money, and her bullet five-panel breeze at Keeneland in :59 3/5 says she s sharp; fires fresh. 10-time winner ROSIE MY ROSIE is riding a threerace winning streak into this heat and will be making her first start off the claim for trainer Steve Margolis, whose outfit has made the most of limited opportunities thus far in The consistent seven-year-old veteran has improved since the blinkers went on six starts back, seven of her 10 lifetime wins have been at this mile and a sixteenth trip on dirt and she has finished in the money in an impressive 23-of-36 starts lifetime; threat. SHE MABEE WILD has the distinction of beating the crack Indiana-bred mare Lady For Horn, as she bested that rival on the square by game head in the 6

7 restricted $103K Richmond Stakes at Indiana Grand last fall. Throw out her races against open stakes company and her form looks a lot better, but she s a need-the-lead type filly that will have to deal with the fleet of foot APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED, who breaks from the one-hole; hangs around for a minor award with a top try. SELECTIONS: RACE NINE WALKER S WAY seems to be well-suited for this seven-furlong trip, and the bay gelding form s has improved since he returned from a layoff in New Orleans back in February and dropped into the maiden claiming $25- $20,000 ranks. Son of Majestic Warrior continues his class descent in this spot and is eligible for improvement making his third start off a layoff. He has never been in this cheap; gets the nod. MIZZING FRAZIER rallied from off the pace and was the recipient of a paint-scraping trip in his most recent start for $20K in Hot Springs, and he ran well two starts back on the grass at Fair Grounds against maiden $30K types. He has shown improvement since the blinkers came off two starts back, and he s in a snug spot here in for a dime; contender. COOL AMBITION returns to the races as a gelding on the drop for the Wayne Catalano barn, and the son of Ice Box didn t run poorly in his debut run for a quarter, where he launched a mild rally to finish sixth of 10, beaten seven lengths for all the money by a next-out winner. He gets blinkers for the first time and is 12-1 on the morning line; improvement expected, possibly at a square price. SATURDAY FUN creeps up in class after failing to graduate from the maiden ranks in his past seven outings for a $8,000 tag at Tampa Bay Downs. He did have trouble just after the start in his last race, where he had to steady, and he faced a next-out winner in that affair. He typically runs his race to earn a paycheck, evidenced by his lifetime record; tab for a minor award. SELECTIONS: