THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni

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1 THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on and also check 1/1/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO Happy New Year and Happy Birthday to every Thoroughbred in the Northern Hemisphere. It truly is a day to celebrate at the Great Race Place, since we ve got a nice $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 to close out the nine-race New Year s Day card. Let s start 2018 with a score. LEG 1 (R6): We begin today s Late Pick 4 with an interesting new condition that was added to the racing menu this season in order to attract more entries in Maiden Special Weight races. This new restricted MSW is for homebreds and horses sold at public auction for $100K or less. Today s heat is for 3-year-olds going 6-furlongs on the main track, and it drew a nice 11-horse field. #1 OPTIC (6/1) was 5/1 in his debut, and he was forced to gun from the rail in a 5.5-furlong dash at Los Al. Because of that, he weakened late, losing to a few of today s foes. Keith Desormeaux runners typically improve with racing (and with more ground), but this guy s hand will be forced again, having to break from the inside. GRADE: C. #2 NORMANDY BEACH (10/1) cost $42K back in March, so we ll see what he can do in his career debut for a trainer who doesn t often have them fully cranked at first-asking. The works are steady, but this guy might need one. GRADE: C. #3 LOMBO (20/1) stalked 4-wide and then predictably weakened in his debut going 5-furlongs on turf at Del Mar. That wide journey is the kiss of death, so don t be too harsh on him. That said, he was 40/1 that day, so not much was expected from this $75K purchase. The last two works are sharp, but it looks like he missed a work from 12/1 to 12/19. GRADE: X. #4 AX MAN (9/5) is a homebred who makes his debut for Baffert, who, as we all know, has them ready to run, notching a 29 percent strike rate of late with debut runners. There are some nice works on display, and you have to like the stamina-building 6-furlong works mixed in. Oh, and he happens to be related to the classy Indian Blessing. GRADE: A. #5 SHANGHAI BILLY (3/1) was 6/1 in his debut at Los Al, and this $55K purchase ran a respectable second despite a 4-wide journey. Harrington adds the blinks today, so this guy can show more focus in the lane, and normal second-out improvement makes him a logical contender but I m always wary of how that Los Al form will transfer on the big-boy circuit. GRADE: B. #6 CAPTAIN N. BARRON (20/1) was 26/1 in his debut down the hill, where he stalked and weakened. It s never easy to win at first-asking down the hill, so I can forgive that effort. Now Lewis adds blinkers and brings this guy back a new gelding but I can t help but think there was a reason this guy debuted on the lawn. GRADE: X.

2 #7 SOLTERO (20/1) was 15/1 in his debut at Los Al, mounting a late bid to finish fifth after a slow start, losing to Shanghai Billy in the process. I like that D Amato is adding the blinkers on this secondtime starter, so he should run an improved race today. Will it be good enough? GRADE: C. #8 MORE HONOR (8/1) cost $35K back in April, so he didn t wow too many folks. Note that he s owned by Red Barons Barn, which also owns Normandy Beach, so see which one of these runners takes more money. Glatt is a very good under-the-radar trainer who had a nice day on Saturday, but he s not really known for getting them to fire big first-out. GRADE: X. #9 THE ITALIAN (20/1) cost $18K as a yearling, and for a Ruis Racing runner, that s chump change. I m thinking this guy might need a start, but do note that Ruis is a solid 25 percent with his debut runners. GRADE: C. #10 ELEVATED KNIGHT (8/1), the second D Amato runner, was a modest $18K yearling purchase, but the fact that Prat bothers to ride makes me think this guy will be ready to roll today for a trainer who does very good work ($4.38 ROI) with first-time starters. I also like that snazzy gate work on 12/3. GRADE: B. #11 ALTERNATIE RHYTHM (12/1), the second Mullins runner, has had plenty of tries already at this level, to no avail, including a defeat to Shanghai Billy at Los Al. On the plus side, he returns to the races a new gelding but on the negative side, Mullins main-man Tyler Baze sticks with the first-time starter. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R7): Today s second leg is a deep rendition of the $75K Joe Hernandez, a 6-5-furlong downhill event for older horses. Thirteen runners have signed up to test their mettle down the hill, but as per usual, I m going to focus on the hillside specialists. #1 GOLDRUSH DANCER (20/1) is a cool, versatile horse who can do it all, but perhaps his weakest race came when he tried the hill for the first time in the Cal-bred California Flag, running fifth at 8/1 and losing to a few of these in the process. The rail does him zero favors as well. GRADE: X. #2 PEE WEE REESE (3/1) used his first downhill victory as a springboard to winning a few races at a mile, including a Grade 3 victory. His early speed makes him extremely dangerous, especially cutting back from a third-place finish in the Seabiscuit (G2), where he was overtaken in the lane. Two slight knocks, however: he will have to use every bit of his speed from the inside; and why is he running in an overnight stakes race? GRADE: A. #3 CIMPL MAN (15/1) looked good down the hill when clearing his N2X hurdle at 9/1. In fact, he s never been out of the money in three downhill tries, so he certainly handles the course well. That said, his N2X race was against much lesser quality horses, and note that win-rider Bejarano ends up elsewhere. GRADE: X. #4 MR. ROARY (10/1) ran the race of his life when he cut back from a steady diet of route races to try this course for the first time in the Eddie D. (G3): and he responded with a terrific closing victory at 22/1. He ll be cutting back again today after facing tougher two-turn horses, so we ll see if he can replicate that graded-stakes victory. GRADE: B. #5 TRIBALIST (9/2) should get a good tracking trip, but note that this crack sprinter has done his best work going shorter at Del Mar. In fact, his last two tries down the hill saw him get outkicked by two of today s foes. I won t fault anyone for making this consistent sort an A, but he ll need to show more oomph in the lane to get the nod today. GRADE: B. #6 LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN (8/1) has been off for 283-days, and this is a pretty salty spot for a returnee who is eligible for an N2X. That said, Glatt can have them ready to run their best, and this guy

3 did look good down the hill against his own class last year. As a lightly raced 4-year-old, there is still some upside here, but like I said, this is a tough spot. GRADE: X. #7 OM (7/2) rarely runs a bad race, but this guy hasn t been able to find the winner s circle since How bizarre is that? Still, I ll never forget how fast he came home in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (G1) back in 2016, to just miss by a nose down the hill. He was right there again in the Eddie D. (G3), just missing to a few of these despite a somewhat eventful journey. He ll need to recapture his winning ways, but I feel like giving him one more chance since everyone will jump off him today after two subpar races. GRADE: B. #8 RICHARD S BOY (7/2) has done good work down the hill, but his best work of late has come going shorter. Two back, he had a decent lead into the lane in the California Flag but was run down late. He s tough to ignore off his consistent form especially since Peter Miller wins a lot of races down the hill but he ll need to show a little more fight today. GRADE: A. #9 KRSTO SKYE (20/1) has never been down the hill, and this seems like a tough spot to experiment. He ll also have to show he can move forward after running much shorter sprint races. GRADE: X. #10 NEXT SHARES (12/1) makes his first SoCal start for Baltas, who promptly legs up Bejarano, so you have to consider him even though he s never been down the hill. He s got solid turf-sprint form back East against allowance types, so he gets a class test today. Expect him on the scene late. GRADE: B. #11 SMOKEY IMAGE (15/1) (AE) scratched out of the Midnight Lute (G3) and is now stuck on the AE list today. He s never been down the hill, and he s 0-for-2 on turf, so he seems to be overmatched in here. That said, he has very sharp early speed, and there was a time when this guy looked like he could be a solid stakes horse. I think it s a good move to try him down the hill, since there s a real chance he might like it, especially with his running style. Still, there are some hill specialists in here. GRADE: X. #12 SYCAMORE LANE (15/1) (AE) was claimed for $62.5K out of a route race at Saratoga this summer after a July 2015 layoff. He hasn t been seen since, and that s not a good sign, since Jacobson doesn t claim horses to lay them up. His route races certainly fit in here from a figure standpoint, but this is a whole new ballgame. GRADE: X. #13 CONQUEST DADDYO (20/1) (AE) has failed to hit the board in three SoCal route tries, so Sadler will try shortening him up today off a March layoff. There was a time when this guy looked like he could develop into a decent turf horse, but some physical issues seem to have prevented that. I m okay watching one, as this is probably a prep for a longer heat down the road anyway. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R8): Today s third leg is an unreliable $40K optional-claiming/starter-allowance restricted to 3-year-olds and contested at 6-furlongs on the main track. I d use a bunch of these in the A column here. #1 ROYAL TRUMP (5/1) has plenty of zip, and that will come in handy while breaking from the rail. Prat hops on board, another plus. He did just lose to Treasure Hunter two back at a slightly tougher level, so the class-relief should help, but he will need to show he can outkick that rival in the lane. GRADE: A. #2 LUKE S ON FIRE (12/1) has never been beyond 5.5-furlongs, so we ll see what this recent Calbred maiden-breaker (at Los Al) can do against more seasoned foes. He has lengths to make up on Royal Trump. GRADE: X. #3 ZIPPY GROOM (12/1) lacks early speed, so he ll need a pace meltdown to get the job done today. Also note that his win came going two turns with a 5-pound weight-break, neither of which is the

4 case here (since win-rider Roman chooses another). Maybe this is a prep for a route event down the road? GRADE: X. #4 CANNONBALL COMIN (15/1) is where Roman stays put, which is surprising since this guy hasn t been seen since June, when he broke his maiden going 5-furlongs for $50K. He has speed, so he ll get the right trip, and he returns a new gelding, so he should be all business today. Still, he ll need a career best against currently sharper animals. GRADE: X. #5 BIG HUNK (12/1) dropped to the $30K level at Los Al to break his maiden, rallying from off the pace to win going away. It was a decent effort, but he was 6/5 and expected to win. Now he has to face winners for the first time. GRADE: X. #6 UTAH UTE (6/1) has multiple wins, and that counts for a lot at this level. In fact, two back, he won at this condition, dueling early and inching away late. He then ran a clunker in his next start, where he was claimed by O Neill. Something went amiss, so he s been freshened and returns at the level of the claim. GRADE: A. #7 ROYAL BAR (6/1) has good speed, so the addition of blinkers should help his cause today after he stalked the pace last time but failed to pass horses in the lane. That was at a slightly tougher level, where he lost to a few of these. Still, the equipment change should help. GRADE: A. #8 GET EM UP SCOUT (8/1) has two wins to his credit, but they both came at 5.5-furlongs. We ll see how he fares in that extra half-furlong today while moving up in class after just beating $32K claimers at Los Al. Utah Ute has him on form. GRADE: X. #9 TREASURE HUNTER (4/1) has been a new horse since he was gelded before his maidenbreaker two back. Last time, he showed a nice stretch run to just miss against slightly tougher. He ll get a good, in-the-clear, tracking trip today and should put forth another solid effort. GRADE: A. #10 TIME FOR CIOPPINO (20/1) took forever to break his maiden, which he did in start numbernine last time at Los Al. He ll need to do much better today, but at least Bejarano hops on board. GRADE: X. #11 IMA TAKE CHARGE (8/1) just beat starter foes up at Golden Gate while going two turns. It was a nice effort, but note that before that, he finished fourth at this level while racing on dirt here at Santa Anita (also at a mile). He ll be fit cutting back, but he ll also be way off the pace. For Him has him on form, so he will need to step things up in here. GRADE: X. #12 FOR HIM (8/1) gets some major class-relief after being pitched way too high in his last two starts. He ll be fit cutting back, and Maragh will have options from this outside post. There are angles here, but he will need to run much faster than he ever has before on dirt. GRADE: B. LEG 4 (R9): We end this racing week with a neat $40K optional-claiming/n1x for fillies and mares going 8-furlongs on the turf. The rails are at 20-feet, and there doesn t seem to be a lot of pace in here, so the deepclosers might have some trouble. #1 SHAZARA (8/1) is a deep-closer who runs her race every time, and that means she usually puts in a mild late bid to pick up a tiny slice of the purse. Maybe the jock change will shake things up, but she s had way too many chances for my liking. GRADE: X. #2 ZUZANNA (30/1) is another deep-closer who just hasn t been the same since joining the Knapp barn. She was also facing her own class in the allowance ranks last year, while now she has to face open company. She ll need a form-reversal today. GRADE: X. #3 CAUSEFORCOMMOTION (6/1) took a while to break her maiden, and she needed a 5-pound weight-break to do it. Her first try against winners wasn t bad, but she was outkicked late by a few of

5 these. She loses her weight-break today, however, so she ll need to show she can beat her main rivals on the square. GRADE: X. #4 ANTONINA (PER) (12/1) has been racing much farther distances, so she ll be super-fit cutting back. It s tough to get a form line on her because she s had trouble in both of her U.S. starts, so can she move forward today with a clean trip? She s likely to be far back, and that s not going to help her get a clean trip in this full field. GRADE: X. #5 ZERO ZEE (15/1), the first D Amato entrant, stretches out after two sprints at the N1X level where she ran on a bit late in the lane. Back East, she tried routing twice, and she failed to impress but those races were against much tougher foes. I think she ll give a better account of herself today, but much improvement is needed. GRADE: X. #6 SASINI (GB) (6/1) is yet another deep-closer who will be at the mercy of pace and trip, but she is coming off a solid third-place finish at this level despite having only a modest pace to close into. She s usable in your exotics, but everything will need to go perfectly for her to get the win. GRADE: B. #7 MS WAKAYA (8/1) is a Cal-bred who looked good beating state-breds going a mile on the turf two back. She faltered badly against open-company on dirt last time, however, so we ll see if it was the company or the surface that caused such a poor race. She should get a good tracking trip in here, but note that How About Zero has her on form. GRADE: X. #8 HOW ABOUT ZERO (5/2) has done decent work against Cal-breds, so we ll see how she stacks up against this kind today. She ll also have to show she can win around two turns, since her two wins have come sprinting. Because of that, she s going to have to show a lot more oomph in the lane with several stretch-runners motoring home late. GRADE: X. #9 THE TULIP (IRE) (6/1) is a 5-year-old mare who is making her first U.S. start after a modest career overseas. Gallagher is solid with imports, and it s nice to see Smith take the call. Plus, that last work is sizzling, so you have to consider this new face in a field of mostly mediocrities. GRADE: B. #10 BE MINE (4/1) should prove very tough in here with a clean trip. Two back, she ran well at this level but was a bit short after a long layoff. Last time, she ran into a roadblock just when she was about to get going in the lane. Back in 2016, they thought she was good enough to race in stakes races, so there is plenty of talent here. If Prat can work out the right trip, look out. GRADE: A. #11 BOMBILATE (3/1) (AE) has a little hang in her, since she s been right there in the lane three times in a row but has been outfinished. The greatest indignity of all came last time when career maiden Scandal, an epic hanger in her own right, outfinished this gal to break her maiden even though she was facing winners. On the plus side, this gal has shown she fits at this level, and maybe the jock change to Desormeaux who is riding lights out can be a difference maker today. GRADE: B. #12 PEACH COVE (NZ) (6/1) (AE) was just claimed for $40K after running an okay fourth at this level. Before that, she needed $25K foes to get her third win after running evenly against some tougher competition. She fits here, however, as she s already cleared this condition, but it is interesting to see that Sadler isn t trying to move her up in class after the claim. On the plus side, she adds Lasix. On the negative side, I can t imagine Espinoza can give this gal a winning ride from a tough post. GRADE: X. #13 HACKTIVISM (8/1) (AE) always looks good around the turn but then she fails to kick on. She couldn t outfinish Scandal last time either, and that s going to be a problem today against much stronger finishers. GRADE: X. #14 ACHIRA (12/1) (AE) has run well in her two turf races, but she s failed to get the job done against maidens. She does have a nice closing kick, however, so her day will come but a maiden against winners in a turf race is always a dicey proposition. GRADE: X.

6 SUGGESTED WAGER I m pretty happy with the two singles, especially #10 in the nightcap, so I don t mind spending more money to get coverage in the middle two legs, which seem wide-open. The whole Matrix costs $99 but if you want to spend less, $83 will get you all A s with two B s, while $29 will get you all A s with one B. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at Keep in mind: I don t add Also Eligibles to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets! [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

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