SATURDAY, MAY 16TH st. #1 American Pharoah 2nd. #2 Dortmund 3rd. #8 Firing Line

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1 PREAKNESS STAKES 1st. #1 American Pharoah 2nd. #2 Dortmund 3rd. #8 Firing Line TVG ANALYST SIMON BRAY According to all the hype before the Derby two weeks ago, this race should be a formality. American Pharoah was lauded as the next Triple Crown winner and the best of his generation, a generation that is supposed to be the toughest we have seen in years. He justified favoritism, won the Derby, and now all of a sudden he didn t win impressively enough. The pace was slow in the Derby, and yes, he had a clean trip, but so did Dortmund and Firing Line and American Pharoah ran them both down despite being widest of all. It was also the first time that American Pharoah had to bear down and dig deep, so from that perspective I was still very impressed with that performance. The inside post is not perfect but at least it s his stablemate drawn beside him, so I m sure Bob Baffert will not send either on a suicide mission. It s good to see the top three runners return from the Derby. In an era when trainers are reluctant to run back in two weeks, this makes for great rivalries and competition. Last year, when California Chrome won the Preakness, the 2nd though 6th place Derby runners sat out the second jewel of the triple crown. Historically, Derby winners run well coming back on 14 days rest. Nine of the last 24 Derby winners went on to win the Preakness and 17 of the last 24 finished in the money. With all that said I m not going to look outside the top three from the Derby. Their form has been consistent dating back to last year. I simply think they are the best 3-year-olds in the race. Many think Dortmund will get the lead, but maybe roles will be reversed this time and Victor will take Pharoah to the lead. Regardless of what happens, it s only an eight-horse field, and Victor has enough time into the first turn to figure things out. Firing Line s reluctance to switch leads might have been the difference between him winning

2 PREAKNESS ANALYSIS BY SIMON BRAY and losing in the Derby. Gary Stevens tried everything to get the lead change but it did not happen. I had never seen this from Firing Line before. Dortmund always runs his race and may have been on a part of the racetrack Derby day that was not conducive to winning. I think it will be a formful Preakness, just as it was in the Derby.

3 GALLORETTE HANDICAP 1st. #10 Mango Diva 2nd. #8 Watsdachances 3rd. #6 Run of the River TVG ANALYST KURT HOOVER A very competitive field of 13 fillies and mares face off in this year s Gallorette. Included are two Euros making their stateside debut. Let s take a shot with one of the new shooters. Mango Diva is a multiple graded stakes winner getting Lasix for her first with Michael Matz. She won three of her last six starts overseas, and was bet to 4-1 in a Group One stake at Goodwood. She sports a solid work tab and gets Gary Stevens for her American debut. Trainer Chad Brown sends out the five year old mare, Watsdachances, who has competed almost exclusively against graded stakes company in the last three years. She s fresh, Castellano rides, and she was second in this race last year behind a classy mare. For the first time in her career, Run of the River is putting together three starts without a layoff. She has some tactical speed and ran well over this course last month. All in all, this is a good, challenging race that could go a lot of different ways.

4 THE VERY ONE STAKES 1st. #4 Joya Real 2nd. #2 Ageless 3rd. #5 Shrinking Violet TVG ANALYST TODD SCHRUPP One of the biggest misnomers in sprint races on the grass is speed. In fact, consistently I look for the best closer in sprint races on the grass. In The Very One Saturday at Pimlico the best horses are closers and that s where the focus should be. Top Pick - #4 Joya Real - Has dramatically improved since winning a $30,000 Claimer in Even if the turf course has give in it, she can handle the conditions. Second Pick - #2 Ageless - Finished second at Keeneland last out over a difficult yielding course. Won this race last year as a slight favorite. Third Pick - #5 Shrinking Violet - Her only loss sprinting on the Turf recently was against the boys. She has not raced since January, but runs well fresh. Suggested Play:.50cent Trifecta Part Wheel 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with ALL = $54

5 CHICK LANG STAKES 1st. #9 Holy Boss 2nd. #7 Gimme Da Lute 3rd. #1 Blame Jim TVG ANALYST PAUL LO DUCA Holy Boss for trainer Steve Asmussen is my top pick is this very tough event. The 3-year-old colt by Street Boss has been really sharp of late. I give him the slight edge. Gimme Da Lute was a good third two weeks ago in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill. Trainer Bob Baffert is wheeling back almost all of his horses from Derby weekend. He s tough to gauge but strong on numbers. What would a stakes race be without Todd Pletcher? He saddles Blame Jim who gets the rail draw. A winner at three different race tracks, he s tactical and he loves a fight! So I would bet Holy Boss to win. Exactas: Holy Boss over Gimme Da Lute, Blame Jim, and throw in Victory Is Sweet!

6 SIR BARTON STAKES 1st. #3 Outlash 2nd. #1 Fame And Power 3rd. #9 Conquest Bigluck E TVG ANALYST BRITNEY EURTON Fingers crossed for a beautiful Saturday out in Baltimore, Maryland for the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes. All eyes will be on American Pharoah as he attempts to take the second jewel of the Triple Crown, but right now let s focus on nine 3-year-olds vying for the Sir Barton Stakes. A few entrants have faced Preakness contenders before, but I m taking a shot and giving a few new faces a look. Outlash, a lightly raced 3 year old by Unbridled s Song, will be my top pick. His maiden debut on January 4 was everything you expect to see from a Pletcher firster going off as the favorite, but you could tell even then that he was screaming for more ground. He doesn t have a huge turn of foot, but can grind away at his competitors. In his only other race, he was found more forwardly placed and just got nipped at the wire. This is an effort, albeit still decent, that I can forgive as the beaten favorite. It was his first time routing off of a three-month layoff, but he still showed some fight coming down the lane. He s coming into this race off a nice workout pattern, with top notch connections, and a versatile running style. Bob Baffert is gearing up for a possibly huge Saturday despite being plagued by the one hole with Fame and Power as well as his Kentucky Derby champ, American Pharoah. They are both very talented colts, and I can t see it being any issue for either runner. This three year old son of First Defence has plenty of speed to get him good positioning and has already proven he can run well from the rail. Fame and Power will be the biggest threat when it comes to a pace standpoint. If he gets an easy lead and Garcia has things his own way, he may be long gone on the front end. Last out he did get the lead and tired, but this was his first time routing, traveling, and against graded stakes company (one of which will be running in the Preakness). Blinkers go on today and he has three straight bullet works prepping him for this race. If

7 SIR BARTON STAKES ANALYSIS BY BRITNEY EURTON Garcia can get him to the lead and relax early, he could be saying Come catch me. When it comes to Casse horses, regardless of the conditions, you always have to give them a second look. Conquest BigLuck E is coming off a performance that may have left something to be desired. Maybe he didn t like the synthetic, maybe he needed the race of the layoff. Whatever the reason, I give him a pass. With Conquest Bigluck E, the stretch out is key. With speed to his inside, he can get a nice trip at the back of the pack and bide his time to show off his big long stride and closing kick. If the pace falls apart on the front end, he will be there to pick up the pieces. If I had to throw one more horse into the mix it would be Donworth. You can t really like Fame and Power without liking Donworth, whom actually beat the aforementioned by a nose in the G3 Lexington. Donworth is another horse with a ton of upside and a talented jockey in the irons. I give the edge to Fame and Power because of experience and consistency, but Donworth will absolutely be in the mix.

8 DIXIE STAKES 1st. #13 War Correspondent 2nd. #2 Ironicus 3rd. #12 Long On Value TVG ANALYST SCOTT HAZELTON The Longines Dixie Stakes will turn out to be a pivotal race in your Preakness Day handicapping success. This is one of the deeper, more challenging races on Pimlico s Saturday card. Adding to the intrigue is it s the third leg of the 50-cent, $1.5 Million Guaranteed Pick Four which starts in race 10, the Chick Lang Stakes and is the start of the Dixie-Preakness Double. Fourteen horses are entered for this 1 1/16-mile event, and the race is so deep that morning-line favorite War Correspondent is just 7/2. It looks as though that sort of price will be attainable at post time for the favorite given the field size. To me the biggest factors are the distance and that there are a lot of deep closers in this field. That is why I am focusing on the early speed of this race and horses I think will hang around at the end of this event. #13 War Correspondent has sat forward trips and run very well in his starts at a mile. The only speed to his inside will come from a long shot, #7 Beyond Smart, who is taking a big jump up on class, and #12 Long On Value, who is my third choice. Combine War Correspondent s early tactical speed and the class of three consecutive Graded Stakes placings, and a win appears most likely. #2 Ironicus will be closing and look for him to crack the top three at the very least with Castellano in the saddle. If for some reason the pace gets out of control, Ironicus could easily be in line for a win, and his inside draw will be ideal for a ground-saving trip. Also, the uber-patient Shug McGaughey must be respected when he is placing a horse in a stakes race for the first time, especially off of several allowance tries. Very few are better at allowing a horse to develop through racing than Shug.

9 DIXE STAKES ANALYSIS BY SCOTT HAZELTON #12 Long On Value should be able to hang on for a piece of the Dixie, especially off of his last five races. Rosario s guidance is always a huge plus. The Dixie is a really good handicapping challenge that has been placed perfectly on the Preakness Day card. It s an important piece of the high-yielding, multi-race exotics at Pimlico.

10 JAMES W. MURPHY 1st. #6 Woodwin W 2nd. #2 Force The Pass 3rd. #7 Syntax TVG ANALYST RICH PERLOFF WOODWIN W puts his unbeaten (3-for-3) mark on the line when he takes on stakes competition for the first time in the James W. Murphy Stakes. He broke his maiden with ease in a race taken off the turf at Tampa Bay Downs. He then defeated Starter Allowance/ Optional Claimers on the grass at Gulfstream. In retrospect, his connections must be breathing a sigh of relief that nobody claimed him that day, as he was in for the tag. However, he saved his best for last. His local allowance win was excellent, tracking the pace in an 11-horse field before pulling away down the lane for a 1 ¼ length victory. That win was in a race for 3YO s and up, so WOODWIN W has the distinction of being the only horse in the Murphy with a win against older horses. FORCE THE PASS, a homebred for Richard Santulli, was bred top and bottom for grass (Speightstown x Dynaformer), and hasn t done anything wrong in three prior starts. He comes off a game win in the Cutler Bay S. at Gulfstream Park; the race has produced three next-out winners. SYNTAX was beaten by FORCE THE PASS (2nd) when 4th in a common MSW race at Gulfstream on 2/14/15, but that was SYNTAX s seasonal debut, and his first start for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. SYNTAX returned to break his maiden as the 8/5 favorite on 4/4/15, and Mott scores at a 26% rate with horses coming off a win.

11 MARYLAND SPRINT 1st. #5 Sandbar 2nd. #2 Coup de Grace 3rd. #4 Happy My Way TVG ANALYST MATT CAROTHERS Only three of the eight participants in this year s Maryland Sprint Handicap have competed at Pimlico, with Happy My Way, the likely heavy favorite, being the only horse to win at Old Hilltop. That win came in the 2014 edition of this race, which he won wire-to-wire by nearly six lengths, earning a Beyer speed figure of 104 at odds of 3/5. The difference this time around for Happy is that, unlike last year when he came into the race on a 2 race winning streak, he enters it having lost 5 straight. You combine that with the fact that he is going to have to contend with a very quick animal in Picko s Pride on the front end, and it adds up to a play-against, especially at a very small price. The bet for me will be Sandbar. He hails from the high-percentage Joe Sharp outfit and will be ridden by one of the game s best in Joel Rosario. He is a very fast horse in his own right, but does have the ability to rate. I am hoping he gets the garden spot trip, sitting right off the two aforementioned contenders. He has also been very competitive in defeat in his last two starts versus a couple of really good sprinters. Two starts back at Fair Grounds, he ran into a lone f from the Tom Amoss barn named Rise Up, and most recently he was defeated by Todd Pletcher s Eastwood. The latter is a horse that yours truly thinks could be a major player in the sprint division later this year. If class is the most salient part of your handicapping, then Coup de Grace could be the pick for you. He is a multiple graded stakes winner, with a lofty 5-for-10 record and earnings approaching 500k. His last couple of starts have been below par, but he is working great, and if he can get a sub-:45 half, he could very well get up in time.