Casinos Newly Authorized in Five U.S. States: A Comparison of Legislative Objectives, Licensing Procedures and Actual Outcomes

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1 Casinos Newly Authorized in Five U.S. States: A Comparison of Legislative Objectives, Licensing Procedures and Actual Outcomes Presentation to the 11 th European Conference on Gambling Studies and Policy Issues Lisbon, Portugal 15 September, 2016 [ this draft dated 11 Sept ] 1

2 Will E. Cummings Cummings Associates 135 Jason Street Arlington, MA (781)

3 Jaclyn Lichter Vincent 3

4 Overview Brief history of the expansion of casinos in U.S. Five major states since 2007: KS, MD, OH, MA & NY Legislative and regulatory objectives Usually involve beauty contests Specificity of legislation vs. regulatory discretion Treatment of existing industries / communities Approaches to problem gambling (etc.) Actual outcomes Lower tax rates + more transparency better outcomes? (All findings preliminary) 4

5 Disclosures etc. Will Cummings was a consultant working in or for each of the states discussed here Jaclyn L. Vincent was Chief of Staff at the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Agency The views expressed herein are those of the authors alone Thanks to Patricia McQueen for the maps And some of the data reflected therein! 5

6 Most Recent States Kansas Maryland Ohio Massachusetts New York 6

7 Map of U.S.: 2016 [ the five states highlighted ] 7

8 Map of U.S.:

9 Map of U.S.:

10 Map of U.S.:

11 Map of U.S.:

12 Map of U.S.: 2016 [ the five states highlighted ] 12

13 Map of U.S.: 2016 [ the five states highlighted ] 13

14 Licensing Processes: Kansas 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 Maryland 2009, 2012, 2015 Ohio 2012 Massachusetts New York

15 Kansas [ map showing location in U.S. ] 15

16 Kansas [ map of casinos in state ] 16

17 Kansas Context: Four Indian casinos long in operation; neighbors Missouri and Oklahoma already had casinos (many/large) Legislative objectives: Tourism, tax revenues, the best interests of the State Format: Four casinos authorized, one in each of 4 zones of limited size in 4 distinct areas of the State N.B. Canadian model : State owns the facilities Geographic specificity: Medium Timeline: Legislative approval 2007 Licensing hearings , 2015 Casinos open 2009, (Fourth license issued in 2015, construction held up by litigation) 17

18 Kansas (continued) Tax rate: 27% x GGR in total (moderate and competitive) Provisions for local communities: County must approve casinos in general by referendum Each applicant must have the endorsement of its local government body 3% of GGR (out of the 27%) allocated to local governments 2% of GGR (out of the 27%) allocated to Problem Gambling Slots also authorized at 3 race tracks, but... none materialized Rigorous Beauty Contest licensing procedures Tight timelines Great transparency Outcome: 3 built so far (further detail to follow) Majors delayed by the financial collapse of

19 Maryland [ map showing location in U.S. ] 19

20 Figure 1. Maryland and nearby casinos 20

21 Maryland Context: History of gaming in southern Maryland, but banned in the 60s; commercial casinos in two counties; new casinos operating in surrounding states (PA, DE, WV) Legislative Objectives: Maryland Education Trust Fund (+) Format: Initially, five slot-only casinos authorized, one in each of five specific areas or individual plots of land. Amended in 2012 to include a sixth facility and table games Initially, the State owned all slot machines. Ownership was transferred in April Casinos with fewer than 1,000 still have State-owned machines. Geographic Specificity: Initially high; 6 th facility medium Timeline: Legislative approval : 2007 (Special Session) Referendum passed: 2008 Licenses awarded: 2009 (3), 2012 (2), 2015 (1) 21

22 Maryland (continued) Tax rates: Initially 67% on slots; now 61% (2), 59%, 57%, 50% Currently 20% on table games, will drop to 15% Local Impact Grants: 5.5% x slot GGR, 5.0% x table GGR About 6% of GGR allocated to the Horseracing Purse Dedication Account; 1% to the Horseracing Racetrack Facility Renewal Account (capital infrastructure projects) Casinos assessed $425 per slot machine and $500 per table game each year to the Maryland Problem Gambling Fund (Ultimately) Highly transparent Five casinos currently in operation; 6 th scheduled to open Dec

23 Ohio [ map showing location in U.S. ] 23

24 Ohio [ map of casinos in state ] 24

25 Ohio Context: Multiple casinos operating along the State s border with Indiana, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Constitutional amendment proposed by initiative petition process. Legislative objectives: to create new funding for cities, counties, public school districts, law enforcement, the horse racing industry, and job training for Ohio s workforce Format: Four casinos at specific sites Parallel but separate process: VLTs at 7 race tracks Geographic specificity: High Timeline: Constitutional amendment passed: 2009 Four casinos licensed and open

26 Ohio (continued) Tax rate: 33% x GGR (competitive with neighbors) Distribution of taxes: County Fund 51% Student Fund 34% Host City Fund 5% Ohio State Racing Commission Fund 3% Casino Control Commission Fund 3% Law Enforcement Training Fund 2% Problem Gambling and Addiction Fund 2% No beauty contests... somewhat opaque All four authorized casinos are in operation 26

27 Massachusetts [ map showing location in U.S. ] 27

28 28

29 Massachusetts Context: Two massive Indian casinos in neighboring Connecticut since 1990s; large VLT facility in neighboring RI Legislative objectives: tax revenues for local aid (same as State Lottery), employment Format: Three full casinos authorized, one in each of 3 zones of the State (no areas excluded); one slot parlor anywhere Geographic specificity: moderately low Timeline: Legislative approval 2011 Licensing hearings Casinos open 2015, 2017?, 2019? (One license not issued in deference to an Indian casino in the Southeastern zone, construction of which is now held up by litigation) 29

30 Massachusetts (continued) Tax rates: 27% x GGR at full casinos (both slots and tables) 49% x GGR at slot parlor Provisions for local communities: Host community must approve applicant and Host Community Agreement by referendum; such agreements mandate payments of 1.5%(+) x GGR Applicant must also enter into agreements with Surrounding Communities ; if the parties cannot agree, Gaming Commission arbitrates Substantial amounts allocated to social impacts research and problem gambling programs 9% x GGR from slot parlor (out of the 49%) allocated to racing Rigorous Beauty Contest licensing procedures Great transparency Outcome: Slot parlor open, slow/erratic progress on others 30

31 New York [ map showing location in U.S. ] 31

32 32

33 New York Context: Indian casinos long in operation; VLTs at race tracks; neighbors New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut had big casinos Legislative objectives: Tourism and Economic Development Specifically, Destination Resort Casinos Format: Up to four casinos authorized, in some combination across 3 broad regions of Upstate NY (only NYC and zones of exclusivity for some Indian casinos excluded) Geographic specificity: Medium Timeline: Legislative approval 2013 Licensing hearings Casinos open ? 33

34 New York (continued) Tax rates: 37% x slot GGR in total (moderately high) 10% x table GGR (very reasonable) Provisions for local communities: Each applicant must have the endorsement of its local government body 10% x tax revenues (e.g., 3.7% x slot GGR) split by local municipality & county Equal amount to be distributed among all other counties in the Region $500/slot machine /year to Problem Gambling ( ~ 0.5% x GGR) VLTs long established at race tracks; no changes / minor add ns Rigorous Beauty Contest licensing procedures Moderate (reasonable?) timelines Not totally transparent Outcome: 3 under construction, 4 th just licensed 34

35 Actual Outcomes (so far) 35

36 Casinos Authorized / Built /... Kansas Maryland Ohio * 4 4 Massachusetts New York * * Excludes 7 VLT facilities in Ohio, 9 in NY, and Indian casinos in NY and KS. 36

37 Performance 37

38 38

39 Gravity Models Applied to Projections for New Casinos: Techniques and Results Presentation to the 16 th International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking Las Vegas, Nevada June 9,

40 Exhibit 3: Forecast Variation by Time and Place - Each Location 180% 160% 140% Percentage of Median Forecast 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Casino Code Number (orange and red squares indicate actual results) 40

41 Exhibit 6: Forecast (Broadly Defined) Versus Actual Performance 350% 300% Percentage of Median Forecast 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Casino Code Number (red squares indicate actual results) 41

42 Five Casinos Actually Built... (Three in Kansas, one in Iowa, one in Massachusetts) The mean difference from actual results (ideally, 3 rd year) is 48% (N=41) Median difference = 35% Excluding outlier KCKS (N=24), the mean difference is 21.5% Median difference = 13.2% Only one of 41 projections was low (none of the 24 for KCKS) 42

43 Overall Characterizations Kansas Maryland Ohio Massachusetts New York Moderate tax High tax Moderate tax Limited to Zones Highly transparent Nearly sitespecific (ultimately) Highly Transparent VERY sitespecific Somewhat opaque Moderate tax Anywhere in the state Highly transparent Moderate(+) tax Broad zones A little murky 43

44 Financial Grades (so far) Kansas B A C? Maryland C C A B C? Ohio C D D D Massachusetts C???? New York???? 44

45 Other Notable Points Kansas: process crushed by fin. crisis Maryland: evolution along the way Ohio: VLTs-at-tracks $ > casino slots Massachusetts: $$ to research & PG New York: complicated... not open yet 45

46 Will E. Cummings Cummings Associates 135 Jason Street Arlington, MA (781)

47 Alternative Versions / Leftovers / Addenda 47

48 Kansas 48

49 Maryland 49

50 Ohio 50

51 Massachusetts 51

52 New York 52

53 53

54 Example: SE Kansas 54

55 55

56 Everything Else I Personal Income Micro-Access Spaciousness Game Mix Fit & Finish Management Skill Marketing / Player Rewards 56

57 Everything Else II Hotel Parking Garage Variety of Dining Choices / Retail / Entertainment Brand Tax / Retention Rate 57

58 Statistics - Overall Among projections that are not themselves the median, the mean difference from the median is 18.7% Median difference = 15.4% Mean pairwise difference between any two projections for the same casino is 26.1% Median pairwise difference = 19.7% 58

59 Statistics - Provenance Independent projections average lower than partisan projections by 24% of the relevant median Excluding outlier KCKS: -19% Mean pairwise differences: Between independent proj ns: 19% Partisan vs. independent: 29% 59

60 Forecasts vs. Actuals 60

61 Exhibit 5: Forecast Variation by Aggregate Location / Geographic Zone 180% 160% 140% Percentage of Median Forecast 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Casino / Zone Code Number (red squares indicate actual results) (#4 and #27 at essentially the same location, 7 years apart) 61

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