Professional Handicappers Association ULTIMATE ODDSLINE. Overlays/Underlays=Good Bets/Bad Bets

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1 Professional Handicappers Association ULTIMATE ODDSLINE Overlays/Underlays=Good Bets/Bad Bets 2012 Professional Handicappers Association - Copyright Preface What is Handicapping Factor #1 - Class Handicapping Factor #2 - Speed Handicapping Factor #3 - Running Style Handicapping Factor #4 - Finish Position Handicapping Factor #5 - Odds Position Putting It All Together Finding Good Bets (Overlays) Can't Bet at Post Time!! Here's How To Find Overlays without the Actual Odds! Money Management for Single or 2 Horse Plays Sum Up Blank Worksheet (PDF Format) - Do Not Write On - Make Copies 3 Complete Races Explained Including Past Performances Race Example & Past Performances for Calder file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ulmenu1.html[10/15/2012 3:35:16 PM]

2 Race Example & Past Performances for Del Mar Race Example & Past Performances for Saratoga To read the PDF files you need to have Adobe Reader. Click here to download the latest version of Adobe Reader. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ulmenu1.html[10/15/2012 3:35:16 PM]

3 Copyright 2012 Professional Handicappers Association - ULTIMATE ODDSLINE By "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Except as Permitted under the Copyright Act Of 1976, no part of this Publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or retrieval system, without the prior written Permission of the Publisher. IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING PROGRAMS AND BOOK MATERIALS Professional Handicappers Association makes no warranty either expressed or implied including but not limited to any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for particular purpose, regarding these programs or book materials or any programs derived there from and makes such materials available solely on an "AS-IS" basis. In no event shall we be liable to anyone for special, collateral, incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of the purchase or use of these book materials or programs and the sole and exclusive liability to Professional Handicappers Association, regardless of the form of action, shall not exceed the purchase price of this book. Moreover, Professional Handicappers Association shall not be liable for any claim of any kind whatsoever against the user of these programs or book materials by any other party. DISCLOSURE This manuscript is not intended to promote gambling, but is to be used as a means of entertainment in the sport of racing. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ucopyright.html[10/15/2012 3:35:17 PM]

4 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers The ULTIMATE ODDSLINE has been developed through countless thousands of hours of research. The finished product is relatively simple in relation to the amount of calculating and experimenting that went into it's development. This strategy is all you need to select proper horses with satisfactory results and will bring you directly to your play. The ULTIMATE ODDSLINE has been designed for individuals who have accomplished the working knowledge of basic handicapping. The fundamentals of the ULTIMATE ODDSLINE are designed to select winners by eliminating losses. This is accomplished by passing races and using a horse's probability for the outcome of a race. Use your enclosed rules correctly and you should be on your way to many profitable opportunities. Good Luck and Good Handicapping; "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ulpreface.html[10/15/2012 3:35:18 PM]

5 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers The following procedure is designed to find a contender or contenders of a race and when you have a contender whether you then have a GOOD BET or BAD BET, and if a GOOD BET how much to wager. There are 5 HANDICAPPING FACTORS that are used and each one represents a maximum of 6 points. The only exception may be possibly the SPEED AND CLASS FACTORS which could have a BONUS POINT or a possible 7 POINTS each. The procedure is very simple and easy to follow, but this like anything else that's new takes a little time to get used to. When determining the answer for the particular HANDICAPPING FACTOR, in almost every instance, you should rate your horses from the last race in the Past Performances. You can use any type of Past Performances. However, there will be times when it will be obvious to the eye that a horse had trouble in his last race or was definitely entered where it did not belong. An example of this would be a poor or stumbled start or possibly a dirt horse entered on the grass or vice versa. Or a horse entered at a class level or distance which was not suited to the horse at all. When this happens rate the horse from the second race back or on the very, very rare occasion where there is a legitimate excuse in both the last two races rate the horse from the 3rd race back. Remember, DON'T BE LENIENT! Try to use the last race out whenever possible and if you're ever stuck for whatever reason, assign the points in an intelligent manner or pass the race. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult.html[10/15/2012 3:35:19 PM]

6 To determine our contenders for each race you must use only the LOW 5 MORNING LINE ODDS. We have included a copy of a blank ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET which you should make copies of for future races. Your 5 contenders either by name or program number are written down on the ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET. If you have 2 or 3 horses tied at any odds which would make for 6 or 7 horses to consider, then consider them all. All the other horses in the race not considered are eliminated from the race. Apply all of the Handicapping Factors as explained in the method and enter them on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET. We have included 3 full races completely handicapped for you with the Past Performances from the Daily Racing Form and the ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET for each race completely filled out for you. REMEMBER YOU CAN USE ANY PAST PERFORMANCES TO HANDICAP THE RACES THAT ARE AVAILABLE NOT JUST THE DAILY RACING FORM. Now let's start handicapping using the ULTIMATE ODDSLINE! file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult.html[10/15/2012 3:35:19 PM]

7 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers HANDICAPPING FACTOR #1 CLASS Our first handicapping factor is called CLASS. Determine the class of each horse of the main contenders (Low 5 Morning Line Odds horses) in the following manner. To determine the class of a horse remaining you must first determine the class of the race in which it is going to run. This is accomplished by reading the conditions of the race relating those conditions to our MASTER CLASS RATING CHART and our CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART. (The charts are included). Click here for MASTER CLASS RATING CHART Click here for CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART When using the charts remember one factor and that is the lower the number the better the class. LET'S RATE A RACE As an example - A Claiming $50,000 race at Santa Anita would be a 7 class while a Claiming $50,000 race at Louisiana Downs would be a 11 class. Let Me Explain How: First you look at your MASTER CLASS RATING CHART to find the class of the race. This race is a Claiming $50,000 race. Look at the MASTER CLASS RATING CHART for Claiming 50,000. You will see 50,000-41,000 and beside that number is 7. Then look at the CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART to class the track, Santa Anita - Abbreviation is SA. You will see a 0. Add the 7 and the 0 together. It totals 7. So the Class rating for a Claiming $50,000 race at Santa Anita is 7. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult2.html[10/15/2012 3:35:19 PM]

8 Classified Allowance and Non-Graded Handicaps or Stakes races are equal to each other. A Classified Allowance and a Non-Graded Handicap or Stakes race for instance at Santa Anita both are a Class 3 (3+0). Graded Stakes races are evaluated as follows: A Grade III is one class level better than a Classified Allowance or Non-Graded Handicap. A Grade II Stakes is one class level better than a Grade III Stakes and a grade I Stakes is one class level better than a Grade II. At all tracks in the United States, as well as in Europe, the Graded Stakes are equal to each other. The South American Tracks are out. A Grade I Stakes in Argentina, for example, would be equivalent to a Classified Allowance or a 3 Class at a major track. A Grade I Stakes is a 0 Class rating, one class level better than a Grade II Stakes which is rated as a 1 race. Grade II is 1 level better than a Grade III which is rated as a 2 and a Grade III is one class level better than that of a Classified Allowance or Non-Graded Handicap. So Grade III is a 2 and a Classified Allowance or a Non Graded Stakes is a 3. However, this only holds true at tracks that receive a 0 adjustment from the Class Rating Chart. For all other tracks penalize all Non-Graded Handicap races including Classified Allowances through the use of the Class Rating Adjustment Chart. Make sure you classify each race before you attempt to find the class of each horse. Once you have accomplished the above you are now ready to class each horse. You can enter the Race Class Number on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET beside the heading CLASS. HOW TO DETERMINE THE CLASS OF EACH HORSE Now that we have accomplished how to find the class of a track. Let's learn how to find the class of each horse. We use the lengths behind the race the horse finished to help determine the class of a horse. The first step is to understand how to convert a horse's class using the lengths behind that he was at the finish of the race. If a horse wins a race he will be given credit for the class of that race. However, if he does not win, we will penalize the class of the race in which he raced according to the following chart: CLASS CONVERSION CHART 1/4 length to 5 1/4 lengths behind the winner PENALIZE the file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult2.html[10/15/2012 3:35:19 PM]

9 horse's class by 1 class level. Example: Claiming $32000 at Santa Anita equals 9. The horse finished 2 lengths behind the winner. His class from this race would be a 10. (9 + 1) = /2 lengths to 9 1/4 lengths behind the winner PENALIZE the horse's class by 2 class levels. Example: Claiming $32000 at Santa Anita equals 9. The horse finished 7 lengths behind the winner. His class from this race would be a 11. (9 + 2) = /2 lengths to 14 1/4 lengths behind the winner PENALIZE the horse's class by 3 class levels. Example: Claiming $32000 at Santa Anita equals 9. The horse finished 11 lengths behind the winner. His class from this race would be a 12. (9 + 3) = /2 lengths or more behind the winner, you would PENALIZE by 4 class levels, but it is advisable not to rate a horse off this type of finish. SPECIAL NOTE: If a horse finished in the race you are rating for class by a head, nose or neck do not penalize the horse 1 class level. But penalize State bred races by 1 class level unless the horse has won in open company for a similar class level or higher. APPLICATION OF CLASS Look to the horse's last race out. Look to see if there is an excuse in that race. (See excuses). If there is just one excuse in the last race out, then you have permission to look to the 2nd race back. Try to look no further back than the 2nd race. EXCUSES A) If a horse wins his last race out then look to the second race back to see if it is a better class. If the second race back is a better class, then take the second race back for his class rating. B) Trouble - A running problem such as stumbled, poor start, impeded, reared, etc. Take the second race back for class if the class rating is better. Now convert the class rating of the horse using the Class Conversion Chart listed below. Compare this class rating with the file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult2.html[10/15/2012 3:35:19 PM]

10 class rating of today's race. CLASS ELIMINATING FACTORS Once you have determined the true class of each horse, eliminate any one that is 5 class levels less than the top class horse in the race. The lower the number the better the class. Example: The lowest class rating number of your contenders is 7. This means that you would eliminate any horse that has a class rating number of 12 or more. REMEMBER: The lower the number the better the class. IMPORTANT NOTICE: Class is the only category that eliminates original contenders from the race and the following 4 HANDICAPPING FACTORS are never to be applied to any horse that has been eliminated. Enter the Class Rating numbers for all of your contenders under the CR Column on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET. APPLICATION OF CLASS RATING POINTS WE WILL NOW ASSIGN CLASS RATING POINTS TO OUR TOP 3 CONTENDERS IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER POINTS TO THE BEST CLASS 2. 2 POINTS TO THE 2ND BEST CLASS 3. 1 POINT TO THE 3RD BEST CLASS A) BONUS POINT - ASSIGN 1 ADDITIONAL POINT (FOR A TOTAL OF 4 POINTS) TO A HORSE THAT IS 2 CLASS LEVELS OR MORE HIGHER THAN THE 2ND BEST CLASS. B) If your top 2 horses are tied and your 3rd best class is more than 2 class levels cheaper than the top 2 classes, assign 3 points to the top 2 Class Numbers and nothing to the 3rd best class. C) If all 3 horses are tied, then average the best 2 classes of their last 3 races. Give the 3 points to the best average (lowest number), 2 points to the 2nd best and 1 point to the 3rd best. D) If you still have a tie with all 3, then break the tie by giving the horse with the highest speed rating the points. E) If you have a tie for 2nd best class and 3rd best class. (I.E. Your top horse is 10 and your 2nd and 3rd horse are both 12) you must separate the 2-12 class horses as in # C). Then assign the 2 points to the horse with the better average and 1 point to the other file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult2.html[10/15/2012 3:35:19 PM]

11 horse. Enter all the Class Ratings on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the column marked CR and the points under the column marked CRP and make sure that they total no more than 6 points unless the BONUS POINT explained in A) was used and if used the total points do not exceed 7. IMPORTANT NOTICE: Class is the only category that eliminates original contenders from the race and the following 4 HANDICAPPING FACTORS are never to be applied to any horse that has been eliminated. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult2.html[10/15/2012 3:35:19 PM]

12 MASTER CLASS RATING CHART Professional Handicappers Association - MASTER CLASS RATING CHART GRADE 1 STAKES 0 GRADE 2 STAKES 1 GRADE 3 STAKES 2 HANDICAP 3 STAKES (NOT GRADED) 3 CLASSIFIED ALLOWANCE 3 NON-WINNERS OF 3 ALLOW. 4 NON-WINNERS OF 2 ALLOW. 5 NON-WINNERS OF 1 ALLOW. 7 MAIDEN (MSW) 9 CLAIMING RACES 100,000-85, ,000-65, ,500-55, ,000-41, ,000-35, ,000-29, ,500-23, ,500-18, ,500-15, ,500-12, ,500-9, ,900-8, file:///c /ultimateoddsline/masterchart.html[10/15/2012 3:35:20 PM]

13 MASTER CLASS RATING CHART 7,900-7, ,900-5, ,500-4, ,400-3, UNDER STATE BRED ADJUSTMENT Add 1 point to all State Bred races. MAIDEN CLAIMING RACES To find the class of all Maiden Claiming races, take the class rating from your claiming list and add the Class Rating Adjustment Number for the track you are handicapping and ADD 3 points. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/masterchart.html[10/15/2012 3:35:20 PM]

14 Class Rating Chart Professional Handicappers Association - CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART The chart is laid out in 2 columns the left column representing the abbreviation for the race track. And to the right of it, the class rating for the track. ALB 8 FP 8 MF 10 SFE 8 AP 2 FG 3 MTH 2 SR 3 AQU 0 FL 8 MNR 7 SAR 0 ARP 8 FON 8 NMP 11 SOL 2 AsD 10 FE 3 NP 9 SPT 4 ATL 2 FNO 4 OP 2 SRP 7 BOI 9 FPX 0 OSA 0 STP 9 BM 2 GG 2 OTC 4 STK 3 BMF 3 GLD 5 PEN 4 SUF 4 BEL 0 GRD 3 PRX 3 SUN 7 BEU 7 GP 1 PID 4 TAM 4 BRD 8 HAW 2 PIM 2 TDN 7 CRC 2 HOL 0 PLA 8 TIM 4 CBY 4 HST 4 PLN 3 TRM 7 CT 6 HOU 6 PM 8 TUP 6 CD 2 HOO 4 PRM 6 TP 2 CLS 8 HMP 4 RET 6 WAT 9 CNL 4 IND 5 RP 5 WO 3 DEL 2 KEE 2 RD 6 YM 8 DMR 0 KD 6 RKM 4 ZIA 2 DeD 5 LAM 8 RUI 8 LS 3 DET 4 LRL 2 SAC 3 PHA 3 ELP 3 LAD 4 SAL 9 BHP 0 EMD 4 MD 8 SAN 7 EvD 8 MED 1 SA 0 file:///c /onestep/classchart1.html[10/15/2012 3:35:21 PM]

15 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers HANDICAPPING FACTOR #2 SPEED RATINGS When handicapping the races you can use any Past Performances that you want. An explanation of how to determine the speed when using any other Past Performances besides the Beyer Speed Ratings in the Daily Racing Form is explained below. Using Beyer Speed Ratings Using the Beyer Speed Ratings found in the Form, you can find the speed rating for each of your contenders in the following manner. Use the rating listed in the Form of the last race unless there is a true excuse on each of your contenders. Write this number down on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the column marked SR. Enter all the speed ratings for each horse on your worksheet under the column marked SR beside the appropriate horse. Using other Speed Ratings found in Other Past Performances When using any other Speed Ratings found in other Past Performances like Brisnet.com just like the Beyer Speed Ratings, enter all the speed ratings for each horse on your worksheet under the column marked SR beside the appropriate horse. Application of Speed Rating Points This step is to be applied to only the horses that are remaining after the Class Evaluation. SPEED RATING POINTS ARE APPLIED IN THE file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult3.html[10/15/2012 3:35:22 PM]

16 FOLLOWING MANNER. 3 POINTS TO THE TOP SPEED 2 POINTS TO THE 2ND HIGHEST SPEED 1 POINT TO THE 3RD HIGHEST SPEED The following is for use with the Beyer Ratings. A) Bonus Point - Assign 1 Additional Point (For a Total of 4) to any horse that is more than 6 speed ratings higher than the 2nd horse. B) Any horse within 2 Speed Ratings of each other are considered tied. C) If your top 3 horses are tied exactly or all within 2 points of the top speed, assign 2 points to each of them equally. Otherwise break the tie as explained below. D) If your top 2 horses are within 2 Speed Ratings of each other, but are 10 speed ratings higher than the 3rd highest speed rated horse, assign them 3 points each and the 3rd horse nothing. E) If your top 2 speed rated horses are within 2 points of each other and the 3rd horse is less than 10 speed ratings from the top horse, then break the tie of the top 2 horses the same way as explained under BREAKING A TIE and assign the 3 points to the highest average and 2 points to the 2nd best average. The 3rd horse receives 1 point. Breaking a Tie Take the 2 highest Beyer Speed Ratings from the last 3 races and make an average of the best 2. Then assign the 3 points to the highest average, 2 points to the 2nd highest average and 1 point to the 3rd highest. In the event there is still a tie, break the tie by assigning the points to the one with the highest speed rating in the last race out. If a tie occurs in any other position, such as for 2nd spot or 3rd spot, break a tie in any other position the same way as above and assign the points accordingly. If your top speed rated horse is 10 speed ratings higher than the rest, give this horse all 6 points. USING OTHER SPEED RATINGS file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult3.html[10/15/2012 3:35:22 PM]

17 When using other Speed Ratings rather than the Beyer Ratings, make the following adjustments. 1. A horse that is on top by 4 points receives the Bonus Point, (for a total of 4 points). 2. Any top horse that is 6 speed ratings higher than the other horses receives all 6 points. Enter all the points on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the column marked SRP beside the appropriate horse's name and make sure they total no more than 6 points unless the Bonus Point was assigned. The total would then be 7. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult3.html[10/15/2012 3:35:22 PM]

18 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers HANDICAPPING FACTOR #3 RUNNING STYLE Our next category is called RUNNING STYLE. The Running Style is taken from the position of the first call that the horse ran preferably from his last race unless you excuse for trouble. The horses are awarded points in the following manner. How to Find the Running Style of a Horse The first step is to define each horse's Running Style and then to rate them accordingly. All horses with a Running Style of either 1st or 2nd at the first call are equal. They are rated better than a horse who was 3rd. And this horse is rated better than a horse who is 4th and so on. Enter the Running Style positions in your worksheet under the Column marked RS by the appropriate horse's name. Application of Running Style Points Your top rated horse will receive 3 points. The second rated horse will receive 2 points and the 3rd rated horse will receive 1 point. Example Let's use an example of a field of 5 horses. Horse #1-1st at the first call Horse #2-3rd at the first call Horse #3-4th at the first call Horse #4-6th at the first call file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult4.html[10/15/2012 3:35:22 PM]

19 Horse #5-7th at the first call Assign the Running Style points in the following manner. 3 Points to Horse #1 2 Points to Horse #2 1 Point to Horse #3 Other Applications of Running Style Points Just keep in mind that horses that are running 1st or 2nd at the first call are treated as equal. A) If your best 2 horses are tied for the early Running Style and the 3rd horse or next best horse is 3 positions or more behind, then assign 3 points each to the top 2 that are tied and nothing to the horse that is 3rd best. Example: Horse #1-2nd at the first call Horse #2-2nd at the first call Horse #3-5th at the first call Horse #1 and Horse #2 are assigned 3 points each and Horse #3 is assigned 0 points. B) If 3 horses are all 1st or 2nd or tied for the same position then give each horse 2 points each. C) If the first horse ran 1st at the first call and the second horse ran 2nd at the first call and the next best horse ran 3rd at the first call, then consider the first and 2nd horses tied. Break the tie in the manner explained below. D) If 4 or more horses are all tied for the same Running Position, break the tie in the same manner as below. E) Any combination of ties at any other position, are to be broken the same way as explained below. Breaking a Tie To break a tie add up the 5 lowest Running Style positions of the first call in the horse's history and the one with the lowest number gets 3 points. The 2nd lowest gets 2 points and the horse that was 3rd lowest gets 1 point. If there is still a tie at this point, then add up all the first call positions file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult4.html[10/15/2012 3:35:22 PM]

20 in their history and make an average. Assign the 3 points to the horse with the lowest average. Assign the 2 points to the horse with the 2nd lowest average. Assign the 1 point to the horse with the 3rd lowest average. REMEMBER: There is a total of 6 points to be assigned in this category. Enter all the points on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the Column marked RSP beside the horse's appropriate name. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult4.html[10/15/2012 3:35:22 PM]

21 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers HANDICAPPING FACTOR #4 FINISH OF RACE Our next category is called FINISH OF RACE. The Finish, of course is the position that the horse finished the race preferably taken from the last race unless there is an excuse. The horses are awarded points in the following manner. Application of Finish Points All horses that Finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd are considered equal. If they finish 3rd they must be less than 6 lengths behind the winner. If they qualify with this they are all considered equal. They are rated better than a horse who finished 4th and so on. So the first step is to define each horse's Finish Position and enter the positions on your worksheet under the Column marked F beside the appropriate horse. The points are applied accordingly. Example: 3 Points to the Top Rated Finish 2 Points to the 2nd Best Finish 1 Point to the 3rd Best Finish Horse #1 - Finished 2nd in the last race Horse #2 - Finished 4th in the last race Horse #3 - Finished 5th in the last race Horse #4 - Finished 7th in the last race The Points would be awarded in the following manner. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult5.html[10/15/2012 3:35:23 PM]

22 Horse #1-3 Points Horse #2-2 Points Horse #1-1 Point Other Applications of Finish Positions Keep in mind that horses finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd (less than 6 lengths) are treated equal or as one. A) If the top 3 Best Finishes are tied for 1st, 2nd or 3rd then give all 3 horses 2 points each. Or if all 3 are tied give 2 points to each. B) If the top 2 finishes are tied for 1st, 2nd or 3rd and the 3rd best is 5th, we have a tie for the top 2 spots and the tie must be broken in the following manner. Breaking a Tie Take the best 2 finishes of the last 3 races and average them and assign the 3 points to the one with the lowest finish average and 2 points to the other one. If there is still a tie, add up the last 5 races in their history and the lower the number the better. Assign the points accordingly. If there is still a tie, then add up all their finishes and make an average and the lower the number the better. C) If any other tie occurs in any other position please break the tie in the same manner as explained above. D) If your top 4 contenders are all tied, then break the tie as explained under BREAKING A TIE and then assign the points accordingly. E) If your 2 best finishes in the race finished 2nd and 3rd, but the 3rd finish was more than 6 lengths behind and the horse that was the 3rd best finish in the race was 5th, then give the horse that finished 2nd the 3 points, the horse that finished 3rd that was more than 6 lengths behind the 2 points, and the horse that finished 5th the 1 point. F) If your best 2 finishes are tied for 2nd and the next best is 3 positions or more behind (2 horses finished 2nd and the 3rd best finish is 5th), then assign 3 points each to the horses that finished 2nd and nothing to the horse that finished 5th. Remember there must be 6 points assigned in this category. Enter all the points on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the column marked FP beside the horse's appropriate name. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult5.html[10/15/2012 3:35:23 PM]

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24 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers HANDICAPPING FACTOR #5 ODDS POSITION Our last HANDICAPPING FACTOR is called ODDS POSITION. The Odds Position is assigning points to the low 3 morning line odds. Enter the morning line odds of the horses under ML on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET. The favorite or the lowest Morning Line Odds is assigned 3 points. The 2nd lowest morning line odds is assigned 2 points and the 3rd lowest morning line odds is assigned 1 point. In the event of a tie for co-favorites in any position, break the tie and assign the points in the following manner. BREAKING A TIE Check the total points assigned from all the previous Handicapping Factor categories and add them together. Assign the 3 points to the one with the highest points. The one with the 2nd best total receives 2 points. EXAMPLE: 2 co-favorites or 2 morning line odds are both 2-1 and the 3rd lowest morning line odds is 4-1. The one co-favorite has a total of 10 points and the 2nd tied lowest morning line odds has a total of 8 points. Assign the one with the 10 points the 3 points and the 2 points to the other one. Do the exact same procedure to separate a tie in any other position. In the event that a horse was eliminated from the race (See Handicapping Factor #1 - Class) and was one of the low 3 morning line odds, then assign your odds as normal but using the next lowest morning line odds to replace the one that was eliminated. EXAMPLE: If the 3rd and 4th morning line odds were eliminated you would assign 3 points to the 1st or lowest morning line odds, 2 points to the 2nd lowest morning line odds and 1 point to the 5th lowest morning line odds. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult6.html[10/15/2012 3:35:24 PM]

25 Another example: - If the 2nd odds on the board was eliminated you would assign the points to the 1st, 3rd and 4th low morning line odds. Remember, there must be 6 points assigned in the category. Enter all the points on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the Column marked MP beside the horse's appropriate name. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult6.html[10/15/2012 3:35:24 PM]

26 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER We have now completed the 5 HANDICAPPING FACTORS. Each factor was given a minimum total of 6 points. The total points for all 5 Factors MUST ADD UP TO 30 POINTS (unless you have assigned BONUS POINTS or you have eliminated horses under HANDICAPPING FACTOR #1 - CLASS.) We now add up the number of points for each horse and enter the total points on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the column marked TP for TOTAL POINTS. SOME HORSES YOU HANDICAP WILL NOT HAVE ANY POINTS ON YOUR WORKSHEET! You do not need to continue on with horses with ZERO POINTS. FINDING THE PERCENT FOR EACH HORSE We will now convert the total number of points each horse receives using the POINT CONVERSION TABLE found on the following pages. Click here for POINT CONVERSION TABLE 1 and click here for POINT CONVERSION TABLE 2 The table consists of 16 columns labeled from 20 PT (Point Total) to 5 PT (Point Total). The column on the left being PT (Point Total) and the column on the right headed % (Percent) which represents the Percent Conversion Number. Each column consists of 2 rows. Look to the first column which is labeled 20 PT. This column is to be used when the total number of points given to the highest horse adds up to 20. Look under the PT column for the number 20 and directly to the right under the % (PERCENT) column is 26 %. This is the Percent Conversion Number for a horse that has 20 Points. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult7.html[10/15/2012 3:35:25 PM]

27 Now let's look at an actual example keeping in mind that each column is read the same way. EXAMPLE In the example, we are going to use a race where the horse with the highest point total in the race has 11 points. LET'S LOOK TO THE POINT CONVERSION TABLE LABELED 11 POINTS. HORSE A in the race has 11 Points or 26 % HORSE B in the race has 6 Points or 7 % HORSE C in the race has 8 Points or 9 % HORSE D in the race has 4 Points or 5 % HORSE E in the race has 1 Point or 3 % IMPORTANT: All remaining horses in that race that have not been assigned any points (including the horses that were no contenders) are to be given 1 % (Percent). So, if you had an 8 horse field and 5 horses received points and 3 horses did not receive any points, you would assign an additional 1 % to each horse that was not rated. Write them down on your worksheet under the column marked % (PERCENT) for the appropriate horse. Once you have assigned the percentages to each horse, your next step is to add up all the percentages together to achieve a total percent (%) or TP number for the race. In our previous example, we'll assume that we had a field of 8 horses. The percentages that we assigned were as follows. HORSE A 26 % HORSE B 7 % HORSE C 9 % HORSE D 5 % HORSE E 3 % TOTAL - 50 % TOTAL 53 % + 3 % (1 % For each additional horse) file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult7.html[10/15/2012 3:35:25 PM]

28 Horse's F, G and H make up the balance of the field of 8. These horses were not assigned any points. So we give them 1 % percent each for a total of 3 %. This 3 % is to be added to the percentages assigned to Horse's A - E which would give us a total of 53 % (50 % + 3 %) for the sample race. Mark this total percent number on your worksheet under the column marked TP. It is required for your next step. ODDSLINE TABLE Once we have established the percent (%) number for the race, you will refer to charts headed ODDSLINE TABLE on the following pages. There are 4 charts. Click here for ODDSLINE TABLE 1 Click here for ODDSLINE TABLE 2 Click here for ODDSLINE TABLE 3 Click here for ODDSLINE TABLE 4 In the ODDSLINE TABLE, you have two headings. One across the top is labeled HORSES % (Percent) and the column down the left is labeled TOTAL % (Percent). This Table is very easy to read. Let's use the same example as above. The total % percent that we found for the race we were handicapping was 53 %. Look down the left column until you see the line marked 53. In our example you will find 53 % in the 4th ODDSLINE TABLE. To find each horse's ODDSLINE, look across the left hand side under the individual percent to get the ODDSLINE for each horse. HORSE A 26 % = 0.8 HORSE B 7 % = 5 HORSE C 9 % = 3.5 HORSE D 5 % = 7 HORSE E 3 % = 13 EXAMPLE That's it. We're finished. You now have arrived at your own ODDS LINE - A TRUE MORNING LINE ODDS. With a little practice you will be deriving at an ODDS LINE in only minutes per race. Make sure you mark each ODDS LINE on your worksheet under the column marked ODL beside the appropriate horse. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult7.html[10/15/2012 3:35:25 PM]

29 Now you're loaded for bear. You are going to be able to tell whether or not your horses represents a GOOD BET OR BAD BET - AN OVERLAY OR AN UNDERLAY. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult7.html[10/15/2012 3:35:25 PM]

30 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers POINT CONVERSION TABLE 20 PT 19 PT 18 PT 17 PT 16 PT 15 PT 14 PT PT % PT % PT % PT % PT % PT % PT % % 19 26% 18 26% 17 26% 16 26% 15 26% 14 26% 19 20% 18 20% 17 20% 16 20% 15 20% 14 20% 13 20% 18 14% 17 14% 16 14% 15 14% 14 14% 13 14% 12 14% 17 9% 16 9% 15 9% 14 9% 13 9% 12 9% 11 9% 16 8% 15 8% 14 8% 13 8% 12 8% 11 8% 10 8% 15 7% 14 7% 13 7% 12 7% 11 7% 10 7% 9 7% 14 6% 13 6% 12 6% 11 6% 10 6% 9 6% 8 6% 13 5% 12 5% 11 5% 10 5% 9 5% 8 5% 7 5% 12 4% 11 4% 10 4% 9 4% 8 4% 7 4% 6 4% 11 4% 10 4% 9 4% 8 4% 7 4% 6 4% 5 4% 10 3% 9 3% 8 3% 7 3% 6 3% 5 3% 4 3% 9 2% 8 2% 7 2% 6 2% 5 2% 4 2% 3 2% 8 2% 7 2% 6 2% 5 2% 4 2% 3 2% 2 2% 7 2% 6 2% 5 2% 4 2% 3 2% 2 2% 1 2% 6 1% 5 1% 4 1% 3 1% 2 1% 1 1% 13 PT 12 PT 11PT 10PT 9 PT 8 PT 7 PT PT % PT % PT % PT % PT % PT % PT % % 12 26% 11 26% 10 26% 9 26% 8 26% 7 26% 12 20% 11 20% 10 20% 9 20% 8 20% 7 20% 6 20% 11 14% 10 14% 9 14% 8 14% 7 14% 6 14% 5 14% 10 9% 9 9% 8 9% 7 9% 6 9% 5 9% 4 9% 9 8% 8 8% 7 8% 6 8% 5 8% 4 8% 3 8% 8 7% 7 7% 6 7% 5 7% 4 7% 3 7% 2 7% 7 6% 6 6% 5 6% 4 6% 3 6% 2 6% 1 6% 6 5% 5 5% 4 5% 3 5% 2 5% 1 5% 5 4% 4 4% 3 4% 2 4% 1 4% file:///c /ultimateoddsline/pct.html[10/15/2012 3:35:25 PM]

31 4 4% 3 4% 2 4% 1 4% 3 3% 2 3% 1 3% 2 2% 1 2% 1 2% file:///c /ultimateoddsline/pct.html[10/15/2012 3:35:25 PM]

32 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers POINT CONVERSION TABLE (CONT'D) 6 5 PT PT PT % PT % 6 26 % 5 26% 5 20% 4 20% 4 14% 3 14% 3 9% 2 9% 2 8% 1 8% 1 7% file:///c /ultimateoddsline/pct1.html[10/15/2012 3:35:26 PM]

33 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers ODDSLINE TABLE TOTAL % HORSES % 26% 20% 14% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% file:///c /ultimateoddsline/oddslinetable1.html[10/15/2012 3:35:27 PM]

34 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers ODDSLINE TABLE (cont'd) TOTAL % HORSES % 26% 20% 14% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% file:///c /ultimateoddsline/oddslinetable2.html[10/15/2012 3:35:28 PM]

35 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers ODDSLINE TABLE (cont'd) TOTAL % HORSES % 26% 20% 14% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% file:///c /ultimateoddsline/oddslinetable3.html[10/15/2012 3:35:29 PM]

36 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers ODDSLINE TABLE (cont'd) TOTAL % HORSES % 26% 20% 14% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% file:///c /ultimateoddsline/oddslinetable4.html[10/15/2012 3:35:29 PM]

37 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers FINDING OVERLAYS (GOOD BETS) This next step must be done at the track or off track establishment as close to post time as possible. All you do is divide the ODDSLINE (ODL) of a horse into the actual odds that he is going off at. We are looking for an answer of 1.4 or higher. A number 1.4 or higher is a GOOD BET or OVERLAY. To find an GOOD BET (OVERLAY) divide the odds of the horse on the tote board by the ODDSLINE (ODL) that you have developed for the horse. As was mentioned, any answer that is 1.4 or greater is an overlay or GOOD BET. Enter the odds at the track on your worksheet under the column marked OT (Odds Track). EXAMPLE HORSE A ACTUAL ODDS (OT) DIVIDED BY 1.0 ODDSLINE = 2.5 OVERLAY (GOOD BET) HORSE B ACTUAL ODDS (OT) DIVIDED BY 5.0 ODDSLINE = 0.8 UNDERLAY (BAD BET) HORSE C ACTUAL ODDS (OT) DIVIDED BY 4.0 ODDSLINE = 1.00 EVEN In the above example, the final odds on the tote board has HORSE A at 5-2, HORSE B at 4-1 and HORSE C at 4-1. HORSE A is the OVERLAY (GOOD BET) HORSE B is an UNDERLAY (BAD BET) HORSE C is EVEN (1-1) so is an UNDERLAY (BAD BET). file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult8.html[10/15/2012 3:35:30 PM]

38 REMEMBER TO BE AN OVERLAY (GOOD BET) A HORSE MUST HAVE AN ANSWER OF 1.4 OR GREATER. The only play in this race is HORSE A. He is the only OVERLAY because his actual odds of 5-2 divided by his ODDSLINE of 1.0 is 2.5 which is definitely 1.4 or greater. In other words, HORSE A should be going off at even money (1-1) since his ODDSLINE is 1.0, but instead the public is sending it off at 5-2 odds which is 2 1/2 times more than it should. Enter the OVERLAY OR UNDERLAY number on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the column marked OL (OVERLAY). KEY PLAYS Once you have established your OVERLAYS, consider as KEY PLAYS only those that have fallen in the 9% - 26 % Percent range under the ODL column on your worksheet. An exception to this rule would be a horse that is under 9 % but is the horse that received the 2nd highest points of your point totals. This type of horse would also be considered a KEY PLAY. If you have 2 OVERLAYS that are in the Percent range (9% - 26 %), this becomes a 2 HORSE KEY PLAY, providing both have actual odds at post-time that fall between 8-5 and There are times (not often) where you may even have 3 OVERLAYS that qualify and here you would have a choice to play all 3 horses, or play the top 2 highest OVERLAY ODDS found under the Column marked OL. Or of course, you may also pass the race. An example of finding another Single HORSE KEY PLAY might be a race that you have 2 OVERLAYS. Both of these qualify in the percent range (9 % to 26 %). But only one horse qualifies in the actual odds range between 8-5 and The horse that qualifies as a KEY PLAY is the horse that is in the track odds range of 8-5 to EXAMPLE OF 1 HORSE KEY PLAY WITH 2 OVERLAYS HORSE A - 26 % 2.5 OVERLAY 2-1 ACTUAL ODDS AT POST-TIME HORSE B - 14 % 3.0 OVERLAY 14-1 ACTUAL ODDS AT POST-TIME As you can see, Horse A at 2-1 Actual Odds qualifies in the odds range of 8-5 to Horse B is outside that range being 14-1 Actual Odds and therefore is not a KEY PLAY. HORSE A will be played to win as a SINGLE HORSE KEY PLAY. Here is another example of a single horse KEY PLAY. In the race are 2 file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult8.html[10/15/2012 3:35:30 PM]

39 OVERLAYS. Both horses are OUTSIDE the range of 8-5 and (Example: 6-5 and 14-1). In this example, you can pass the race because both horses are OUTSIDE the range or play the 6-5 as a SINGLE HORSE KEY PLAY because he is the favorite. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult8.html[10/15/2012 3:35:30 PM]

40 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers CAN'T BET AT POST TIME!! HERE'S HOW TO FIND OVERLAYS WHEN YOU DON'T KNOW THE ACTUAL ODDS (GOOD BETS) This next step will be done using the Morning Line Odds of the Horse. All you do is divide the ODDSLINE (ODL) of a horse into the horses's morning line odds. We are looking for an answer of 1.6 or higher. A number 1.6 or higher is a GOOD BET or OVERLAY. To find an GOOD BET (OVERLAY) divide the morning line odds of the horse by the ODDSLINE (ODL) that you have developed for the horse. As was mentioned, any answer that is 1.6 or greater is an overlay or GOOD BET. Enter the Morning Line Odds on your worksheet under the column marked OT. EXAMPLE HORSE A MORNING LINE ODDS DIVIDED BY 1.0 ODDSLINE = 2.5 OVERLAY (GOOD BET) HORSE B MORNING LINE ODDS DIVIDED BY 5.0 ODDSLINE = 0.8 UNDERLAY (BAD BET) HORSE C MORNING LINE ODDS DIVIDED BY 4.0 ODDSLINE = 1.00 UNDERLAY (BAD BET) In the above example, the Morning Line Odds has HORSE A at 5-2, HORSE B at 4-1 and HORSE C at 4-1. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult9.html[10/15/2012 3:35:31 PM]

41 HORSE A is the OVERLAY (GOOD BET) HORSE B is an UNDERLAY (BAD BET) HORSE C is an UNDERLAY (BAD BET). REMEMBER TO BE AN OVERLAY (GOOD BET) A HORSE MUST HAVE AN ANSWER OF 1.6 OR GREATER. The only play in this race is HORSE A. He is the only OVERLAY because the Morning Line Odds of 5-2 divided by his ODDSLINE of 1.0 is 2.5 which is definitely 1.6 or greater. In other words, HORSE A should be have odds of even money (1-1) since his ODDSLINE is 1.0, but instead the Morning Line Odds is 5-2 odds which is 2 1/2 times more than it should. Enter the OVERLAY OR UNDERLAY number on your ULTIMATE OVERLAY WORKSHEET under the column marked OL (OVERLAY). KEY PLAYS Once you have established your OVERLAYS, consider as KEY PLAYS only those that have fallen in the 9% - 26 % Percent range under the ODL column on your worksheet. An exception to this rule would be a horse that is under 9 % but is the horse that received the 2nd highest points of your point totals. This type of horse would also be considered a KEY PLAY. If you have 2 OVERLAYS that are in the Percent range (9% - 26 %), this becomes a 2 HORSE KEY PLAY, providing both have morning line odds that fall between 8-5 and There are times (not often) where you may even have 3 OVERLAYS that qualify and here you would have a choice to play all 3 horses, or play the top 2 highest OVERLAY ODDS found under the Column marked OL. Or of course, you may also pass the race. An example of finding another Single HORSE KEY PLAY might be a race that you have 2 OVERLAYS. Both of these qualify in the percent range (9 % to 26 %). But only one horse qualifies in the morning line odds range between 8-5 and The horse that qualifies as a KEY PLAY is the horse that is morning line odds range of 8-5 to EXAMPLE OF 1 HORSE KEY PLAY WITH 2 OVERLAYS HORSE A - 26 % 2.5 OVERLAY 2-1 MORNING LINE ODDS AT POST-TIME HORSE B - 14 % 3.0 OVERLAY 15-1 MORNING LINE ODDS AT POST-TIME As you can see, Horse A at 2-1 Morning Line Odds qualifies in the odds range of 8-5 to Horse B is outside that range being 15-1 Morning file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult9.html[10/15/2012 3:35:31 PM]

42 Line Odds and therefore is not a KEY PLAY. HORSE A will be played to win as a SINGLE HORSE KEY PLAY. Here is another example of a single horse KEY PLAY. In the race are 2 OVERLAYS. Both horses are OUTSIDE the range of 8-5 and (Example: Morning Line odds of 3-2 and 15-1). In this example, you can pass the race because both horses are OUTSIDE the range or play the 3-2 as a SINGLE HORSE KEY PLAY because he is the favorite. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/ult9.html[10/15/2012 3:35:31 PM]

43 Copyright 2012 by Professiona1 Handicappers - "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers MONEY MANAGEMENT There are 3 MONEY MANAGEMENT CHARTS used with this program. Two are for SINGLE HORSE KEY PLAY and the other is for a 2 HORSE KEY PLAYS. Both are very simple and are a must if you wish to maintain the necessary R.O.I (RETURN ON INVESTMENT) to be successful. SPECIAL NOTE: If you are betting in advance and do not have the Actual Odds you can use the Morning Line Odds to determine your wager. Click here for SINGLE 1 KEY PLAY Click here for SINGLE 2 KEY PLAY Click here for TWO HORSE KEY PLAYS ULTIMATE ODDSLINE SINGLE HORSE INVESTMENT CHART To invest in a SINGLE HORSE KEY PLAY, USE THE ULTIMATE ODDSLINE SINGLE INVESTMENT CHART found on the following pages. To invest in a single horse, the amount of return on your investment will be determined by the amount of your capital investment. This should be adjusted to come up with the figure of the earning Power that you wish to maintain. The ULTIMATE ODDSLINE SINGLE HORSE INVESTMENT CHART is very easy to read. The column on the left side of the chart represents the ODDSLINE numbers. The numbers across the top of file:///c /ultimateoddsline/mmanagement.html[10/15/2012 3:35:32 PM]

44 the chart represent the odds at the track as close to post time as possible. The other numbers represent the % (percent) of your Bankroll that you should invest. HERE'S HOW IT WORKS! Suppose your horse has an ODDSLINE of 0.8 and the odds at the track are 2-1. Come down the ODDSLINE COLUMN on the left side until you find 0.8. Follow this line across the page to the right until you are under the column marked 2-1. You will see the number 6. This means that your investment on this wager is 6 % of your capital to win or a $60.00 Win Bet with a bankroll of $ Your bankroll should be increased or decreased as you win or lose. Let's look at another example. Let's say that you have an ODDSLINE of 2-1 and the odds at the track are 7-2. Look at the chart on the bottom of the page and do the same as before. Find the 2-1 under the ODDSLINE column and go across to the right until you find 7-2 under the ODDS AT TRACK column. Under the 7-2 column you will find the number 2 which represents your investing 2 % of your bankroll on this 7-2 horse. This chart is easy to use and is a must to be successful. 2 HORSE MONEY MANAGEMENT WIN PROBABILITY CHART The 2 HORSE MONEY MANAGEMENT WIN PROBABILITY CHART found on the following pages tells you exactly how much to invest on each of your 2 horses according to their post time odds. The chart is very easy to read. You have 2 columns - one marked ODDS and the other is marked % PROBABILITY. EXAMPLE You have a 2 horse KEY PLAY. HORSE A has odds of 9-5 and HORSE B has odds of 3-1. file:///c /ultimateoddsline/mmanagement.html[10/15/2012 3:35:32 PM]

45 To find the amount to invest on HORSE A, just multiply.07 (9-5 odds) times $ (Your capital) and your answer should be $ To find the amount to invest on HORSE B, just multiply.05 (3-1) times $ (Your capital) and your answer should be $ Of course, you round off your investment to the nearest dollar. If either horse wins you win. In fact, if your 9-5 was the winner, you would have received in this example a return of 63 % on your investment and a 67 % on your investment if your 3-1 horse had won the race. EXAMPLE OF RETURN IF 9-5 HORSE WINS Payoff is $5.60 for each $2.00 if the horse goes off at 9-5. Wager is $70.00 times $5.60 = $ Divide the $ by 2 = $ Return. You invested a total of $ ($70.00 on the 9-5 and $50.00 on the 3-1 horse). Your profit is $76.00 ($ Return minus $ Investment). That is a 63 % Profit - ($76.00 divided by $ total investment). EXAMPLE OF RETURN IF 3-1 HORSE WINS Payoff is $8.00 for each $2.00 if the horse goes off at 3-1. Wager is $50.00 times $8.00 = $ Divide the $ by 2 = $ Return. You invested a total of $ ($70.00 on the 9-5 and $50.00 on the 3-1 horse). Your profit is $80.00 ($ Return minus $ Investment). That is a 67 % Profit - ($80.00 divided by $ total investment). EXACTAS The number of KEY PLAYS that win is the reason for the simplicity of our Exacta Play. Wheel ON TOP your KEY HORSE (1 horse or 2 horses) over each horse that you had originally considered as contenders. (Low 5 Odds). The amount of investment on each exacta should not exceed 1 % of your capital per exacta and should only be made when the return file:///c /ultimateoddsline/mmanagement.html[10/15/2012 3:35:32 PM]