Top of the Stretch. Horse Racing Simulation. Single Race Recreation Version

Transcription

1 Top of the Stretch Horse Racing Simulation Single Race Recreation Version Copyright Lon Whitehead, 2011 Distributed by Skyline Services Inc. All Rights Reserved 1

2 Welcome to Top of the Stretch, a horse racing simulation! This version of Top of the Stretch differs from the other versions in that the system included here is designed to allow you to rate and recreate any race you wish using only the race chart from the real race. Unlike the other versions where the ratings have been calculated from a season of real life races, this version will rate only a single race based on how it was run in real life. Want to recreate last year s Kentucky Derby? You can do it. Want to recreate the 1910 Kentucky Derby? You can do it. Want to recreate that cheap claiming race from the local track yesterday? You can do it! Whatever race you recreate, the horses will perform in a manner consistent with the expectations and the outcome of the real race. Does that mean that the horse that won the real race will always win your recreated race? No. Does that mean that the odds-on favorite that should have won the real race will win this one? Maybe. Maybe not. Just like real racing, the outcome will vary from race to race. The Quickplay game versus the Fullplay Game Top of the Stretch has two different playing versions. There is the Fullplay version, which is the version I developed originally. There is also a Quickplay version, which I created for those times when I wanted to be able to have the same realistic race outcomes in a slightly quicker format. The Fullplay version of the game will probably only take 10 to 15 minutes to complete when you ve become accustomed to the flow of the game. You ll get to see where each horse is in relation to the others during each segment of the game. You ll also see the pace of the race develop, and how it will help and hurt certain horses. Turning for home, everything that has unfolded in the race to that point now comes into play as the horses thunder down the stretch and you determine the final results (thus, the name Top of the Stretch). 2

3 I was slow to come around to the type of game commonly referred to as Quick Result games. It always seemed that you rolled a few dice and Presto! you had a final result, without any idea of WHY you had that particular final result. In the Quickplay version of Top of the Stretch, I think you ll see that you still get a feeling for the horses strengths and weaknesses, and how they still help determine the outcome of the race. You ll still see, for instance, the pace of the race unfold and how it increases or diminishes each horse s chances of winning. You ll also still have the build up to the stretch run, where the final results will be determined. I admit that the Quickplay version has become my own personal favorite way to play the game. Please feel free to contact me with any ideas you might have on improving Top of the Stretch, or contributing any tweaks or charts you might come up with on your own. I ve started a Yahoo! Group for Top of the Stretch, at that you may join and can post messages or tweaks or your own charts. I ll also be posting minor updates there as well as some race scoresheets for real life races that you can use along with the game. You may also reach me at lwhitehead@chartermi.net and pass along your thoughts or ideas. I sincerely hope you enjoy Top of the Stretch! See you in line at the betting window! Lon Whitehead 3

4 Table of Contents Explanation of the Ratings Page 5 Locating Race Charts Page 6 Ratings Calculations for a Single Race.. Page 8 Sample Race Chart Page 12 Sample Race Calculations Page 13 Coupled Entries Sample Calculations.. Page 22 Blank Race Calculation Sheets Page 23 Rules for the Quickplay Game Page 24 Rules for the Fullplay Game Page 27 The Game Play Charts Page 38 Scoresheets in various formats Page 49 4

5 Horse Ratings Power Ratings The horse's overall ability. The higher the Power Rating, the better. In the single race version of Top of the Stretch, each horse will be assigned three different Power Ratings. The first is based on the odds (to win) that the horse was bet at for the rated race. The second is based on the horse's actual finish in the race. The third is an average of the first two. Pace This is a rating that indicates the style that the horse is most likely to use when running a race. Horses that like (and/or need) to run up front on the lead will have higher ratings than those that prefer to sit back and make one closing run at the end of a race. Horses are rated 0 (lowest) to 9 (highest). A "0" rated horse will most likely drop to the back of the pack and make one run at the end of the race. A fast pace will help that kind of horse most times, while a slow pace will leave him with too much to do and too many fresh horses to run down at the end. A horse with an "8" or "9" rating wants to get to the lead and stay out front as long as possible. A fast pace hurts that horse s chances of lasting until the end, but a slow pace enables it to get a leisurely lead and might allow it to steal a race on the front end, even if he's not the best horse in the field. In this version of Top of the Stretch, the horses are given a pace rating which reflects how they were positioned in the race that is being rated. Without additional information regarding how the horse ran in other races, we have limited knowledge of how the horse prefers to run, or at what pace it runs best. We only have the information in the race chart to guide us, so that's what we'll use to recreate the horse's performance in this race. Form The Form rating reflects how much variation there's likely to be in a horse's performance. The range is from "A" (the most consistent) to "E" (the most variation). A horse with an A rating will most likely perform close to his rated ability, while a horse with an "E" rating will be more erratic, often turning in sub-par performances, but may also produce an uncharacteristically good race from time to time. In order to obtain a Form rating from just a single race chart, we will compare how the horse ran (its finish) with how it was expected to run (its odds) and rate it accordingly. Race Factors. Each horse receives a rating from -4 (very poor) to +4 (exceptional) in each of these particular areas. In the single race version of Top of the Stretch, we are again using the variation in expected performance (odds) 5

6 to that of actual performance (finish) to provide variation in results. Unlike the full version of the game, these ratings don't reflect the horse's skill in any particular area but rather provide for some means of 'racing luck'. Wire The Wire rating is a rating to determine a horse's ability to achieve a better result in close competition. In the game, it's used to help determine who wins a photograph for a placing. The ratings run from "0" (the worst) to "9" (the best). The horse with the higher Wire rating stands a better chance of getting his nose on the wire first in a close finish. Locating Race Charts If you don t know where to begin looking for race charts, there are several good sources on the internet where you can download race charts, usually in pdf format, for free. Here are a few of the best: - The Daily Racing Form s website has many current and past race charts available to view and download. Just select a track and date and off you go! - This is also part of the Daily Racing Form website, but it allows you to search for stakes race charts by selecting the range of dates that you want to see. You can then click on any of the race charts for those races. Very useful! - A treasure trove of race charts for you to view and download. Current charts, stakes charts, and historical charts going back to 1991 are all here for you. Just make sure that you stay in the areas marked Free unless you have an equibase account and want to pay for charts. (Tip: if you want to look for a race chart for one particular horse, fill the horse s name in the Horse Search box on the left hand side of the screen. From there, you can click on the horse s name and see all of its race charts that are in the Equibase system and that s a lot of races!) - Race charts for all of the Kentucky Derbys. If you change the 2010 at the end of the address to whatever year you want to see, you ll go right to that page. Otherwise, there is a box towards the top of the page where you can just click on whatever year you want to see. 6

7 - Race charts for all of the Belmont Stakes races back to the beginning. Charts older than 1898 don t give you all of the information that you ll need to rate the horses, but all of them since then have just what you re looking for, although you ll have to use the bookie s odds since there was no parimutel wagering at that time. &year= The official Breeders Cup website has charts for all Breeders Cup races back to the beginning in The link above will take you to the page for the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic race, but from there you can click on the year and race that you want to see. The link to the race charts is below the video screen on each page, towards the bottom. - Here s one not too many people know about. Scanned copies of the Daily Racing Form are available back to the 1890 s. Only select copies are available at present, but they add to it regularly. Click on one of the decade listings on the left and off you go in search of some Golden Oldie charts. In general, just do a Yahoo or Google search on the term Horse Racing Result Charts. Add the name and date/year of a race if you know the name, and you ll probably be on your way to locating the chart. Of all of the sites listed, the Equibase site is probably the one that will yield the most usable charts in one place. Happy hunting! 7

8 Ratings Calculations - Recreating a Single Race You will need a Race Result Chart that shows the following information in order to rate the horses for the Single Race version of Top of the Stretch: Conditions of the race (distance, type of race, age of horses) Position of horses at points of call, including finishing position Split times for the race Final time of the race You will want to use one of the default Ratings Sheets to fill in the necessary information as you rate the horses. Here is the basic design of the Ratings Sheet: Race Name: Race Conditions: Age of Horses: Race Distance: Base Power Rating for Race: Horse Name Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Step 1: Determine the 'Base Power Rating' for the race to be rated: 2 years 3+years Base Base Grade 1 Stakes Grade 2 Stakes Grade 3 Stakes Ungraded Stakes Allowance Claiming & Maiden Step 2: Adjust the base Power Rating based on the actual final race time of the race to be rated: Example: If you are rating an ungraded stakes race for 3+ year old horses, the default base rating is '19'. Let's say it's an 8.5 furlong race. If the actual final time for the race was 1:41.4, you would increase the base rating by +1, to '20'. If the actual final race time was 1:45.2, you would decrease the base rating by -2 to '17'. (Times listed are the 'minimum' times to qualify for the adjustement. A time of 1:34.5 to 1:35.4 for 8 furlongs will earn the +1 adjustment. A time of 1:34.4 or less will earn the +2 adjustment.) Speed yds 8.5 Speed pts/sec : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Speed Speed +2 01: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :

9 Step 3: Assign the horses an "Odds Power Rating" based on their prerace odds Refer to the Base Power Rating Rating for the race as determined in steps 1 & 2. Then, using the chart below, find each horse's "Odds Power Rating" by subtracting the number assigned for its odds from the Base Power Rating. For example, if the Base Power Rating for the race is 19 and the horse's odds were 4-1, you would subtract 3 from 19 to arrive at 16, which is the horse's "Odds Power Rating" for this race. (See the note at the bottom of this section regarding coupled entries.) (Note: No horse should receive a rating less than a 4; if the calculation calls for less, give the horse a rating of 4) Odds Subtract from Base Odds Subtract from Base Step 4: Assign the horses an "Finish Power Rating" based on their actual finishing position in the race Refer to the Base Power Rating for the race as determined in steps 1 & 2. Then, using the chart below, subtract the number indicated by the horse's final finishing position in the race. For example, if the Base Power Rating for the race is 19 and the horse finished 4th in a field of 8 horses, you would cross reference Finish Pos. 4 on the left hand column of the chart below with a Field Size of 7-9 and find the number "3". So subtract 3 from 19 to arrive at the horse's "Finish Power Rating" of 16. (Note: No horse should receive a rating less than a 4; if the calculation calls for less, give the horse a rating of 4) (Note: If a horse won a race by 5-9 lengths, ADD 1 to its rating; if it won by 10+ lengths, add 2 to its rating) Field Size Finish Step 5: Assign the horses a "Mixed Power Rating" Simply add the horse's "Odds Power Rating" to its "Finish Power Rating" and divide by 2 to find the "Mixed Power Rating" Round halves in favor of the "Finish Power Rating" (Examples: OPR=16, FPR=19, MPRating=18 ; OPR=16 FPR=13, MPR=14) If the horse that won the race won by 3 to 6 lengths, add 1 to the horse's Mixed Power Rating. If it won by more than 6, add 2. IMPORTANT: You will use the "Mixed Power Rating" as the horse's Power Rating to start the race. 9

10 Step 6: Assign the horses a "Form Rating" Find the amount that the horse's "Odds Power Rating" differs from its "Finish Power Rating" and cross reference that figure with the chart below to find the horse's "Form Rating" for this race. Form Difference from Odds/Finish 0 = A 1 = B 2 = B 3 = C 4 = C 5 = D 6 = D 7 = E 8 = E 9 = E 10 = E 11 = E 12 = E 13 = E Step 7: Assign the horses a "Pace Rating" In order to assign horses a Pace Rating for the race, we will first determine the Pace Rating for the horse that sets the early pace, then work our way backwards through the field. On your race result chart, find the horse that leads the race at either(a) the first 1/4 for races less than 9 furlongs, or (b) the first 1/2 for races of 9 furlongs or more. The horse that is leading the race at the first split receives a Base Pace Rating of 7. That rating may then need to be adjusted based on the actual split time for the real life race. Refer to the Base Pace Adjustment chart to adjust the leader's Pace rating based on the actual split time in the real life race. Using the appropriate race distance, find the split time of the race you are rating at either (a) the first 1/4 if the race is less than 9 furlongs, or (b) the first 1/2 if the race is 9 furlongs or longer. Using the chart below, adjust the lead horse's Base Pace Rating according to the split time. For example, if we are rating an 8 furlong race and the leader's time after 1/4 was 24.0, we would subtract 1 from the lead horse's Base Pace Rating of 7 to arrive at a new Base Pace Rating of 6. If the split time had been 22.6, we would add 1 to arrive at a new Base Pace Rating of 8. ** NOTE: The minimum pace rating that the race leader may receive is '5'. Base Pace Rating Adjustment Pace yds 8.5 Pace Adjust +1 00: : : : : : : : :22.2 Adjust +1 None Adjust -1 00: : : : : : : : :24.2 Adjust -1 Adjust -2 00: : : : : : : : :26.2 Adjust -2 None Base Pace Rating Adjustment Pace Pace Adjust +1 00: : : : : : : : :49.8 Adjust +1 None None Adjust -1 00: : : : : : : : :52.0 Adjust -1 Adjust -2 00: : : : : : : : :54.0 Adjust -2 Once you have established a Pace Rating for the lead horse, you assign Pace Ratings for horses in the order in which they ran at the appropriate 'split' position (the 1/4 mark for races less than 9 furlongs, the 1/2 mark for races of 9 furlongs or more). The 2nd place horse at the split will receive a Pace Rating of 1 (one) less than the lead horse. The 3rd place horse will receive a Pace Rating of 2 less than the lead horse, and so on. However, if the 'lengths behind' is less than 1 length, you won't subtract anything for the next horse's Pace Rating. Conversely, if the 'lengths behind' is more than 3 lengths, you will subtract an additional point for the next horse. 10

11 Example: After the first 1/4 mile in an 8 furlong race, here are the racing positions: Position Horse Name LB gap 1 Fast Phil - 2 Speedy Joe 1/2 3 Quick Nick 2 4 Midpack Mo 4 5 Back Jack 2 6 Closer Claude 4 Assuming Fast Phil received a Pace Rating of '7' for this race, we work our way back through the field and adjust according to the rules listed above. Speedy Joe is less than 1 length behind Fast Phil, so instead of receiving a Pace Rating of 1 less than Phil, we don't subtract anything, so he also gets a Pace Rating of '7'. Quick Nick is 2 lengths behind Speedy Joe, so he receives a Pace Rating of 1 less than Speedy Joe, a '6'. Midpack Mo is 4 lengths behind Quick Nick, so instead of subtracting the standard of 1 point, we subtract 2 to come up with a Pace Rating of '4' for Midpack Mo. (The gap exceeds the default of 3.) Back Jack is 2 lengths behind Midpack Mo, within the default range of 1 to 3 lengths, so we subtract 1 from Midpack Mo's rating to get a Pace Rating of '3' for Back Jack. Closer Claude is 4 lengths behind Back Jack, so we subtract 2 (1 plus an additional 1 for being more than 3 lengths back) to arrive at Closer Claude's Pace Rating of 1. Step 8: Assign the horses Odds/Mix/Finish Race Factor Adjustments Each horse will receie a 'Mix' Race Factor Adjustment rating of '0' (zero). Their Odds and Finish Race Factor Adjusments will be based on the variation of their Odds/Mixed/Finish Power Ratings as determined in steps 3 through 5 listed above. Compare the horse's "Odds Power Rating" to the "Finish Power Rating" and use the chart below to determine the horse's "Odds Race Factor" and "Finish Race Factor" ratings for this race. Difference in Odds/Finish Power Ratings 0 = +/- 0 1/2 = +/- 1 3/4 = +/- 2 5/6 = +/ = +/- 4 For example, if a horse has an "Odds Power Rating" of 18 and a "Finish Power Rating" of 14, the difference is 4. Therefore, that horse's "Odds Race Factor" is +2 and its "Finish Race Factor" is -2. We arrive at this by referring to the 4/5 "Difference" column and applying the +/-3 result to the appropriate factors. In this case, the horse's "Odds Power Rating" was 4 higher, so the "Odds Race Factor" is PLUS 2. The "Finish Power Rating" is 4 lower, so the "Finish Race Factor" is MINUS 2. Step 9: Assign the horses 'Wire' Ratings Give the horse that won the race in real life a Wire Rating of 9. In order of real-life finish, subtract 1 for each finishing position. If you get to "0" (if there are 10+ horses in the race), all remaining horses get a "0" Wire Rating. Step 10: Adjusting for coupled entries Occaisionally two or more horses will be 'coupled' for purposes of betting. In this case, a bet on one of the horses coupled together gives you a bet on both/all the horses that are coupled to it. In order to give horses in coupled entries their own 'Odds Power Ratings', the following system is employed whenever 2 or more horses compete as an entry. Of the horses that are coupled together, calculate the "Odds Power Rating" for the horse that finished highest (best) in the race as you normally would. That horse's "Odds Power Rating" will be unaltered. For each additional horse that was part of the same entry, deduct 0.5 from its' "Odds Power Rating" for every position lower that it finished than the best-finishing horse in the entry, rounding all 'half totals' up. For example, in the 1989 Belmont Stakes, the winner, Easy Goer, was part of an entry with the horse who finished in 4th place, Awe Inspiring. The odds on the entry were (which we would round to the more conventional 3 to 2). Easy Goer's Odds Power Rating for the race is 21 (the base rating for the race, 20, minus the adjustment for the 3-2 odds, which is 1). Awe Inspiring finished 3 places behind Easy Goer, so at 0.5 points per position, we subtract 1.5 points (which we round up to 2 points) and arrive at an Odds Power Rating of 19. So for the 1989 Belmont Stakes, Easy Goer's Odds Power rating is 21 and his coupled entrymate, Awe Inspiring's, is 19. See the sample race charts for the 1989 Belmont Stakes and the 1946 New Orleans Handicap, which illustrate coupled entries. 11

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13 Sample Race Ratings Creation Let s walk through creating the ratings for a race step-by-step. Find the Sample Race Result Chart and follow along. Step 1: Determine the Base Power Rating for the race to be rated The race that we are rating, the fictional Swanee River Stakes, is an ungraded stakes race for 3 year olds. Looking at the chart in step 1 of the ratings instructions, we find that the beginning base rating for this race is 19. Step 2: Adjust the Base Power Rating based on the actual finishing time Next, we look at the actual finishing time of the race and cross reference it with the chart in Step 2 of the ratings instructions. The race was run at 9 furlongs in a time of 1:49.98, which we round up to 1:50.0. Looking at the chart, we find that a time of 1:50.0 falls between the times listed of 1:48.6 and 1:50.6, in the blank spot, so no adjustment to the base time is necessary. If the actual race time had been 1:51.0, we would have subtracted 1 from the base rating; if it had been 1:48.0, we would have added one to the base rating. (Note: For many years, races were timed in fifths of a second. You might see a time listed as 1:48 2/5, for example. In that case, you round the fifths to a decimal, in this case 1:48.4.) Step 3: Assign the horses an Odds Power Rating Using the actual pre-race odds for the race we are rating, which are found in the far right column of our sample race chart, we refer to the chart in step 3 of the instructions. The first horse listed, Late Train, has odds listed as Converting that to more conventional odds notation, Late Train was Looking at the chart, a horse with 20-1 odds receives a subtraction from the base rating of 8 points. Since our base rating was 19, as described above, Late Train s Odds Power Rating is 11 (19-8=11). (Note: The odds listed on the race result charts are always listed as $ X.xx. This is simply the win odd computed to $1 bets. We rounded to come up with the more conventional Sometimes, you ll have a horse listed at odds that don t match exactly on the ratings chart, and you ll have to use the nearest listed odds. For example, if a horse s odds are listed as 23.45, that would round to 23-1, which is not found on the chart. Use the nearest listed odds instead, in this case Also, at lower odds, horses common odds are broken down further. Use the following chart shows how to round odds of less than 5.50 to more conventional odds: 13

14 Odds Conversions = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 6-1 etc. Working our way down the list, we calculate the rest of the horse s Odds Power Ratings the same way we calculated Late Train s rating of 11 as shown on the sample below: Race Name: Swanee River Stakes Race Type: Ungraded Stakes Age of Horses: 3 year olds Race Distance: 9 furlongs (1 1/8 miles) Real Time of Race: 1:49.98 Real Split Time: 0:47.72 Base Power Rating: 19 Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Horse Name Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Late Train Hot Breath Surge Top Dog Hurryup Go Out of Ethyl Dash for Cash Sir Lopesalot

15 Step 4: Assign the horses a Finish Power Rating We ll now give each horse a Finish Power Rating based on the horse s actual finishing position in the race. Referring to the charts in Step 4 of the instructions, we need to first determine how many horses were in the field of the race we are rating, in this case 8. Therefore, we ll use the 7-9 column under Field Size. The chart indicates how much we need to subtract from the race s base rating (19) for each horse depending on where he finished in the race. Late Train finished first. On the chart, you ll see that the winning horse always receives a 0, no matter what the field size. Therefore, Late Train s Finish Power Rating is 19, the same as the race s base rating. Looking at the chart under the 7-9 column, we see that the second place horse, Hot Breath, receives a deduction of 1 point from the race s base rating. So his Finish Power Rating is 18 (19 minus 1). Working our way down the list again, we now have the following ratings filled in on our ratings sheet: Horse Name Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Late Train Hot Breath Surge Top Dog Hurryup Go Out of Ethyl Dash for Cash Sir Lopesalot Step 5: Assign the horses a Mixed Power Rating Referring to the instructions for Step 5, we average the horse s Odds Power Rating with its Finish Power Rating to arrive at the Mixed Power Rating. (Round any half number nearer to the Finish Power Rating.) The Mixed Power Rating is very important, as it is used as the horse s beginning Power Rating when we run the race. Although it doesn t come into play in our sample race, if a horse wins a race by 3 to 6 lengths, you should increase the horse s Mixed Power Rating by 1 point. If it won by more than 6 lengths, increase the rating by 2 points. In our example, Late Train s Odds Power Rating is 11, and his Finish Power Rating is 19. Averaging the two numbers, we arrive at a Mixed Power Rating for Late Train of

16 Hot Breath s Odds Power Rating is 15, and his Finish Power Rating is 18. Averaging his two power ratings we get a result of 16.5, which we will round up to 17. So Hot Breath s Mixed Power Rating is 17. Working our way through the field, this is what our ratings sheet looks like after calculating the Mixed Power Ratings for each horse in our race: Horse Name Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Late Train Hot Breath Surge Top Dog Hurryup Go Out of Ethyl Dash for Cash Sir Lopesalot Step 6: Assign the horses a Form Rating Using the chart in the instructions for Step 6, we will now calculate a Form Rating for each of the horses. To calculate the Form Rating, we will compare the horse s Odds Power Rating with its Finish Power Rating and look up the resulting difference on the chart. The difference between Late Train s Odds Power Rating (11) and his Finish Power Rating (19) is 8. Referring to the chart for Step 6 in the instructions, we find that late Train s Form Rating will be an E. The difference between Hot Breath s Odds Power Rating and his Finish Power Rating is 3 (18-15), so his Form Rating will be C. Continuing on, here s what our ratings sheet looks like after calculating the Form Rating for each horse: Horse Name Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Late Train E Hot Breath C Surge B Top Dog C Hurryup Go B Out of Ethyl C Dash for Cash A Sir Lopesalot B 16

17 Step 7: Assign the horses a Pace Rating This is probably the most difficult rating to calculate, although once you ve done it a few times, it will become much easier. Following the instructions for Step 7, we will assign each horse a Pace Rating. (Note: The pace rating is used in both the Quickplay and Fullplay versions of the game. The Fullplay game cannot be played without pace ratings, but you could play the Quickplay version without them by simply skipping the Pace Scenario and Pace Effects portions of the game. Doing so will deprive you of the opportunity to see how various pace scenarios can affect the outcome of the race, but if you want just to play the Quickplay version and generate race results, the option to skip assigning pace ratings and forego the pace-related portion of the game is there for you.) The basics of the pace rating are that, for the most part, the horse that leads the real-life race at either the ¼ or ½ mile mark (depending on the length of the race) will be assigned the highest, or fastest, pace rating. Each horse behind him will be assigned a rating based on the gap in lengths that they trailed the horse ahead of them. If you grasp this concept, the rest of the ratings process is much easier. The first step in calculating the pace ratings is to find the rating for the horse that was on the lead at either the ¼ mile mark into the race (for races of less than 9 furlongs) or at the ½ mile mark (for races of 9 furlongs or longer). Looking at the Sample Race Result Chart, we find the columns marked PP, Start, ¼, ½, ¾, Str, and Fin. These designations mean, in order: Post Position, Start of the race, ¼ mile into the race, ½ mile into the race, ¾ mile into the race, Top of the Stretch, and Finishing position. In our example, the Swanee Stakes is run at a distance of a mile and 1/8, or 9 furlongs, so we are interested in how the horses looked after the first ½ mile of the race. At that point of the race, the horses are listed on the Sample Race Result Chart as follows: Late Train 8 Hot Breath 3 1 Surge 7 4 Top Dog Hurryup Go 2 3 Out of Ethyl Dash For Cash Sir Lopesalot 4 ½ 6 ½ 1 1 ½ 5 Head 17

18 The first number indicates the horse s position in the field. The second number indicates the number of lengths that the horse leads the next horse by. So, here are how the horses stood after the first half mile of the Swanee Stakes: Dash For Cash was 1 st, 1 and ½ lengths ahead of Hurryup Go, who was 2 nd and 3 lengths ahead of. Hot Breath, who was 3 rd, 1 length ahead of. Top Dog, who was 4 th and ½ length ahead of. Sir Lopesalot, who was 5 th, just a head in front of Out of Ethyl, who was 6 th, and ½ length ahead of Surge, who was 7 th, 4 lengths ahead of. Late Train, who was 8 th. In order to calculate pace ratings for all of the horses, we must begin with the leader, who was Dash For Cash. As outlined in the instructions for Step 7, we start with a default rating of 7. Next we check the real life time for the race after a half-mile was run to see if we need to adjust that rating due to the race being run faster or slower than normal. On the Sample Race Result Chart, you ll see the Fractional Times listed right below the names of the horses. They are listed as: 23.37, 47.72, 1:12.46 etc. The first split time, 23.37, corresponds to the first ¼ mile of the race. We are interested in the split time for the first ½ mile, so we are looking for the second number listed, which is Comparing with the chart in the instructions for Step 7, we find the column for 9 furlongs and see that falls between the times of 00:47.6 and 00:49.6 which are listed as the Adjust 1 and Adjust 2 rows. Since our time is greater than 47.6 but less than 49.6, we use the Adjust 1 reading to adjust our leader s pace figure from 7 to 6. (The race was run at a slightly slower pace than normal.) So, Dash For Cash receives a Pace Rating of 6. Now, we work our way down to the next horse in the field at the ½ mile mark, which is Hurryup Go. By default, Hurryup Go will receive a pace rating of 1 less than that of Dash For Cash, but there are a few circumstances that will alter that. If the gap between Dash For Cash and Hurryup Go is less than 1 length, then there won t be any reduction at all and Hurryup Go would receive the same pace rating as Dash For Cash. If the gap is more than 3 lengths, then the reduction will be increased by 1. In our case, the gap was 1 ½ lengths, so the reduction will be the default of 1, making Hurryup Go s Pace Rating a 5. Hurryup Go was 3 lengths in front of the 3 rd place horse, Hot Breath, so Hot Breath receives a Pace Rating of 1 less than Hurryup Go a rating of 4. In turn, Hot Breath is 1 length ahead of the 4 th place horse, Top Dog, so Top Dog gets a Pace Rating of 3. 18

19 Note that the gap between the 4 th, 5 th, 6 th, and 7 th place horses are all less than 1 length, so there is no reduction in the pace ratings between those horses. So Sir Lopesalot, Out of Ethyl, and Surge also get a Pace Rating of 3. Surge, the 7 th place horse, is 4 lengths ahead of Late Train, so the deduction between Surge s rating (3) and Late Train is 2 rather than the default difference of 1, meaning Late Train s Pace Rating is 1. Here s what our ratings chart looks like after calculating the Pace Ratings: Horse Name Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Late Train E 1 Hot Breath C 4 Surge B 3 Top Dog C 3 Hurryup Go B 5 Out of Ethyl C 3 Dash for Cash A 6 Sir Lopesalot B 3 Note that the slower than normal real-life split time for the first half mile has led to lower than average pace ratings for the field in general. When replaying this race, either in the Quickplay or Fullplay version of the game, you will stand a very good chance of having the race run at a slow pace as a result of these ratings. Of course, there is also a chance that the race will be run at a different pace, depending on how the dice roll for you. (As an aside, a race with a slower than normal pace will usually favor the horses that run towards the front of the pack the horses with the higher Pace Ratings. The race that is used in our example runs counter to that. Late Train was last by 4 lengths at the half-mile mark, yet was able to pass the entire field from that point on. Although the names of the race and the horses was changed, the basis used for this race chart was that of a real graded stakes race, so the real life horse that accomplished this definitely pulled a surprise that day as a 20-1 shot!) Step 8: Assign the Odds/Mixed/Finish Race Factor Adjustment ratings In the other versions of Top of the Stretch, each of the horses is assigned Race Factor ratings for their ability to get a good trip (the Trip rating), their relative rating to other horses (the Class rating), and their best speed figures (the Speed rating). Since we are rating one particular race and only using the outcome of that race for our ratings basis, we lack the information needed to create those 19

20 three ratings. Instead, the horses will be given ratings again based on their prerace odds, actual finish position, and a neutral rating. These ratings are designed to add some variation in the performance of each horse while also giving a representation of expected vs. actual performance. Using the chart in step 8 of the instructions, we once again will compare the horse s Odds Power Rating (calculated in step 3) to their Finish Power Rating (calculated in step 4). For the Mixed rating, each horse will receive a 0 adjustment factor. Let s start again with Late Train. His Odds Power Rating is 11 and his Finish Power Rating is 19 for a difference of 8 between the ratings. We look on the chart and see that a difference of 7 or more results in Odds/Finish Race Factors of +/- 4. Since Late Train s Odds Power Rating is lower than his Finish Power Rating, we will give him an Odds Race Factor Adjustment rating of -4. And, conversely, his Finish Power Rating was higher, so we give him a Finish Race Factor Adjustment rating of +4. Moving next to Hot Breath, his Odds Power Rating is 15 and his Finish Power Rating is 18, for a difference of 3. On the chart, a difference of 3 (or 4) leads to the reading of +/- 2. Again, Hot Breath s Odds Power Rating was lower than his Finish Power Rating, so his Odds Race Factor Adjustment rating is -2 and his Finish Race Factor Adjustment rating is +2. Skipping down to Top Dog for a moment, he had the opposite situation from Late Train and Hot Breath in that his Odds Power Rating (19) was greater than his Finish Power Rating (16). He also had a difference of 3 between the ratings, but because his Odds Power Rating is higher, we will give him an Odds Race Factor Adjustment rating of +2 and a Finish Race Factor Adjustment reading of -2. In some rare cases, a horse will have an Odds Power Rating that is exactly the same as its Finish Power Rating. In that case, both his Odds Race Factor Adjustment and Finish Race Factor Adjustment will be 0, as well as his Mixed Race Factor Adjustment. In this case, the horse ran true to form in the race that is being recreated, and we will not add any additional variation to his performance with these ratings, as they are all 0. In our race example, Dash For Cash is such a horse. His finishing performance was in line with his expected performance, so he receives 0 s for all three of these ratings. 20

21 Here s how the final ratings for our race look: Horse Name Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Late Train E Hot Breath C Surge B Top Dog C Hurryup Go B Out of Ethyl C Dash for Cash A Sir Lopesalot B In evaluating these ratings, we can see that Top Dog, who was the strong favorite in the real race, receives the highest Mixed Power Rating (which is used at the start of the race simulation) and would probably stand a good chance to win. Hot Breath, who was the 2 nd choice among bettors in the real race and also ran 2 nd in the race would be a strong 2 nd choice in our race, too. Late Train, the longshot who won the real race, is definitely in the mix as well, as his E Form rating coupled with his 4/+4 Race Factor Adjustment ratings can lead to unexpectedly good (or poor) performances, and his Mixed Power Rating is only 3 less than the favorite s (Top Dog). Sir Lopesalot faces a daunting task, having been the least respected horse by bettors and also finishing last makes his chances of competing in this race rather dismal. But even Dash For Cash could surprise with the help of a slow pace and some racing luck. Hopefully, this step-by-step guide for rating a single race will be helpful to you as you rate your own races. After going through the process just a few times, you ll see how easy it is, and how effectively it recreates the individual race that you are rating. 21

22 Top of the Stretch Single Race Ratings Race Name: 1989 Belmont Stakes Race Type: Grade 1 Stakes Age of Horses: 3 year olds Race Distance: 12 Furlongs Real Time of Race: 2:26.0 Real Split Time: 0:47.0 Base Power Rating for Race: 22 Horse Name Easy Goer Sunday Silence Le Voyageur Awe Inspiring Hawkster Rock Point Imbibe Irish Actor Triple Buck Fire Maker Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish 3-2* B B E * B D C B B B B * Coupled entry: Easy Goer/Awe Inspiring Race Name: 1946 New Orleans Handicap Race Type: Grade 1 Stakes Age of Horses: 3 year olds & up Race Distance: 8.5 furlongs Real Time of Race: 1:45.0 Real Split Time: 0:23.4 Base Power Rating for Race: 20 Horse Name Hillyer Court Pique King Dorsett Letmenow Paper Mill Espino gold Pindus Flareback Bold Salute Milos Sea Letter Equanimous South Dakota Regal Maid Sun Gallahad Lost and Found Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish C E * B B ** C ** C * B * B * A * B * A B C ** C ** C ** C *Coupled entries: King Dorsett/Flareback Pindus/Milos Bold Salute/Sea Letter ** Field entries: Paper Mill, Espino Gold, Regal Maid, Sun Gallahad, Lost and Found 22

23 Top of the Stretch Single Race Ratings Race Name: Race Type: Age of Horses: Race Distance: Real Time of Race: Real Split Time: Base Power Rating for Race: Horse Name Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish Race Name: Race Type: Age of Horses: Race Distance: Real Time of Race: Real Split Time: Base Power Rating for Race: Horse Name Real Real Power Ratings Form Pace Race Factor Adjustments Odds Finish Odds Mixed Finish Rating Rating Odds Mixed Finish 23

24 Top of the Stretch Horse Racing Instructions (Quickplay Version) GAMEPLAY The Quickplay version of the game is designed to give you accurate race results in a shorter game time. It retains most of the complexities of the full game, but will not give you a visual picture of how the race unfolds like the full version. It s suggested that you familiarize yourself with the Quickplay game before moving on to the Fullplay version. Most of the concepts in the two versions are similar if not exactly the same, and it will be much easier to use the Fullplay version if you re familiar with the Quickplay version. To play "Top of the Stretch" you will need two six-sided dice as well as the horse ratings you have calculated for the race you are recreating and a race scoresheet or a list of horse ratings (or cards) from which to set up your race. Setup First, fill in a scoresheet with the ratings that you have calculated for the horses in the race that you are recreating. Fill in all of the appropriate ratings prior to gameplay, including calculating the horses Adjusted Power Rating (which is the horse s Mixed Power Rating that you have calculated). Have the Quickplay game charts handy, your two dice at the ready, and you re ready to open the gates and send the horses on their way. Pace Adjustment In the quickplay game, the first thing to do is to determine the pace that the race is being run at. Add the Pace ratings of the horses with the two highest Pace ratings together (the Pace ratings are on the scoresheet). Refer to the appropriate column across the top of the Pace Scenario Chart and roll the two dice. If Slow or Fast appears at the cross-reference point of the combined ratings and the dice total, then the race is run at either a Slow or Fast pace. If the spot is blank, the race will be run at an average or normal pace. If the Pace Scenario Chart was blank at the intersection of the dice roll and the combined pace ratings of the two highest-rated horses, the pace is Normal and you won t need to adjust any of the horse s ratings based on the pace. In that case, you may proceed to step 2, the Form Adjustment section. However, If the pace reading was either Slow or Fast, you ll need to look on the Pace Effects Chart to see how each horse s Adjusted Power Rating might be changed based on the effect that the race s pace is having on the horse. Check each horse s 24

25 Pace rating and refer to the appropriate column to find the adjustment that needs to be made. You ll find that horses with low Pace ratings will probably have their Adjusted Power Rating decreased (worsened) if the pace is slow, or increased (improved) if the pace is fast. Vice versa for horses with high Pace ratings. Record the change, if any, to each horse s Adjusted Power Rating on the scoresheet under the Pace Adj column. Form Adjustment The next step is to see how each horse s form is today. Form ratings are on the scale of A to E. Horses that are very consistent will receive A or B Form ratings; horses that are inconsistent receive D or E ratings. Find each horse s Form rating (it s listed on the scoresheet), roll the dice and add them together. Refer to the Form Chart to find how much, if any, you need to adjust the horse s Adjusted Power Rating to reflect the horse s form today. Record the change to each horse s Adjusted Power Rating, if any, on the scoresheet under the Form Adj column. In this portion of the game, if the dice roll for any horse results in a 3, on the Form Chart you will see a small t next to the result. First, record the result and then roll the dice again and refer to the Trouble Chart. Here, a number of things almost all bad can happen to the horse. He could break down, lose his jockey, interfere with another horse and be subject to disqualification, or just encounter traffic trouble. A roll of 2,3, or 12 results in the horse being immediately out of the race. A roll of 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 results in no additional trouble for the horse. A roll of 4, 10 or 11 results in the horse being disqualified. Complete the race normally, but upon conclusion of the race, roll one die for this horse and move him down in the standings the number of places equal to the die roll. Race Factors We now will determine which of the horse s Race Factors will be called into play in this race. The three possibilities are Odds, Mixed, and Finish. Roll one die for each horse and refer to the die readings on the Race Factors chart. Unlike the other version of Top of the Stretch, you will only roll the die once for each horse in this phase. The die will reveal which of the three horse ratings will be used. Once you have determined which rating will come into play, look on the scoresheet for each of the horse s ratings in either the Odds, Mixed or Finish columns under the Race Factor Adjusment ratings. 25

26 Once you ve found the required rating(s), record the number in the Race Factor Adj column on the scoresheet. The FINAL SPEED result roll will be adjusted by this result, either adding to the total (helping the horse), subtracting from the total (hurting the horse) or having no effect whatsoever. Final Race Time/Speed Roll You have increased or decreased the horse s Adjusted Power Rating for the effects of the race pace and the horse s form. You have recorded the appropriate final speed figure adjustment based on the horse s race factor ratings. Now, it s time to roll the dice, adjust the total, and refer to the Final Speed Figure Chart to determine the horse s final race speed figure (the higher, the better) for this race. Find the horse s current Adjusted Power Rating and then find that column on the Final Speed Figure Chart (the ratings go from 0 to 29). Roll the two dice, add them together and find the resulting speed figure on the Final Speed Figure Chart. Add or subtract the necessary speed figure adjustment (resulting from the Race Factors portion of the game) for the horse on the scoresheet in the Final Race Speed column to the far right. Final positioning / Photo Finishes / Disqualifications / Timing Rank the horses in the race from highest speed figure (best) to lowest speed figure (worst) to determine your order of finish as they crossed the wire. There is a column marked Fin to the far right of the scoresheet for this purpose. If two horses receive the same Final Speed Figure, you will need to make an additional roll to determine which horse finished ahead in the photo-finish. To do this, roll the two dice again for each horse and add the dice total along with the horse s Wire rating. The horse with the higher total gets the better placing. If two horses have the same sum, they have dead heated for this position. (Note: the process is the same whether two, three, or more horses finish with the same Final Speed Figure.) If you had any disqualifications, now is the time to roll the die and determine how many positions a disqualified horse will be moved down in the standings. Roll one die and move any disqualified horse down below that number of horses who have finished behind him during the race. (All of those horses will have their finishing positions improved by one place.) If you d like to see what each speed figure equates to in time, refer to the Final Time chart and find the appropriate race distance and Final Speed Figure in order to determine the time of the race. 26